Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

darkman2

jenzz wrote: »

& ladies lol

Getting back to the task at hand ....give us an oul guestimate there darkman on what you see based on those little chart things & cheer us all up.

Frost, Ice, Snow and high energy bills by next weekend.

pauldry

Met Eireann.......The difference is..we're right?:D

howlinwolf

like it or lump it ladies and gentlemen the internet is seen as a bit of a joke by some people in there profession ......its seen as a bunch of people with not much knowledge rantin and ravin with no real proof of anything....ie a bunch of fanboys ......to be fair a lot of people on here have a lot of knowledge ( an awful lot more than me) and seem to have a good handle on things but that still doesnt change the way some people percieve these kinds of forums......sad but true:mad:

pauldry

Oh. my dp was just gone below 0 does that mean its gonna snow? well i know its not gonna coz its clear but does that mean if there were dark clouds it would snow?

Su Campu

Danno wrote: »

That would take up valuable advertising time for RTE!!!

I guess Met Eireann being a public body do not see any competition to them, there for they do not need to heed any other forecasts.

Which forecasts, the boards.ie ones? I can see them really putting a lot of faith in these! :rolleyes:

Su Campu

howlinwolf wrote: »

like it or lump it ladies and gentlemen the internet is seen as a bit of a joke by some people in there profession ......its seen as a bunch of people with not much knowledge rantin and ravin with no real proof of anything....ie a bunch of fanboys ......to be fair a lot of people on here have a lot of knowledge ( an awful lot more than me) and seem to have a good handle on things but that still doesnt change the way some people percieve these kinds of forums......sad but true:mad:

This thread's heading for Loopyland. Do people really think meteos should read these forums before setting out their forecasts? :eek:

Villain

The pub run 18z looks very very cold but I think its more of a Northerly cold which won't bring much if any snow we need a good old easterly for that. Still no sign of mild weather on the pub run could be a long hard winter

howlinwolf

i think some people really do .......thats a bit much really,were all here just guessin (and hopin) for some snow but askin for the national weather forcast to mention us and others like us is a bit mad

Villain

Ok I know its the pub run but has anyone else seen the charts I mean seriously its just pure cold, ok I know it become a NW so no snow for the East but its mad imo???

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

Oh. my dp was just gone below 0 does that mean its gonna snow? well i know its not gonna coz its clear but does that mean if there were dark clouds it would snow?

Ah come on...
Basic meterology 1.1
You can have sub zero dewpoints at the height of summer.
They are frequent under clear skies during winter.
They are a crucial element for snow fall but only one of dozens.


__________________________________________________

Now back on topic
I've been keeping an eye on all this from afar and Firstly I wouldnt worry about the RTE forecasts as for the reasons already stated [donegal no snowgate a few yrs ago-they are aware of the potential but unless it is very very certain,they usually play it cool untill the night or 2 before on the specefics].
Suffice it to say if I were to sum up the models so far,it looks like it is going to get bitter cold and certainly there will be precipitation.

I think at this stage we should focus on the likelyhood of the precip being rain rather than snow...
I would put that risk at about 20% at the moment

Theres huge uncertainty as to who gets most of the precip and when.

Listen to WC and DM2,they have their eye on the ball so far.
If you want a fairly decent analysis,I'd look at their posts.

Villain

Villain wrote: »

Ok I know its the pub run but has anyone else seen the charts I mean seriously its just pure cold, ok I know it become a NW so no snow for the East but its mad imo???

Well I wouldn't say no snow for the east in that run.
I wouldnt mind gfs precip either at that range as it's often cack.

If you have a low pressure dropping down into scotland and then down into western Britain [if it does that and that scenario is as likely as any]...then yes you would have snow every where more or less as you'd have periods of it flooding south.

All academic anyhow,theres so much scatter in the runs at the moment.
The only good thing is all the probabilities are cold ...so uhm...something is going to happen..!

maquiladora

Ah nothing like the Irish weather to make a thread meltdown! :P

Back on topic and the 18Z GFS run would bring a chance of snow showers to high ground in the east and north Thursday and Friday and gives a good chance of snow over a wider area for the coming weekend. But thats only one model and a week away, so as always, lets just see what happens and dont expect too much apart from the fact that its going to get colder in the days ahead. :pac:

howlinwolf

sorry black still gettin used to the lingo but what is wc and m2?

gleep

Never mind yer charts, balloons and flux capacitators, the Donegal Postman says its going to snow, so it will. :pac:

howlinwolf

ha ha yeah stuff all the charts just listen to the postman ,he,s a man of the people

howlinwolf

howlinwolf wrote: »

sorry black still gettin used to the lingo but what is wc and m2?

WC is short hand for your moderator weathercheck and dm2 is darkman2,the starter of this thread.

howlinwolf

ahh feelin kinda dumb ........thanks for d heads up

jenzz

darkman2 wrote: »

Frost, Ice, Snow and high energy bills by next weekend.

Lovely:D

Pangea

Outside at the moment is like heaven, sub zero tempertures ,and lots of shooting stars . Just look up at the sky tonight it is amazing, all we need now is the northen lights to show up
Enjoy.

Stevek101

Where are you I can't see ****!

Pangea

Stevek101 wrote: »

Where are you I can't see ****!

lol in Donegal, I can see every star in the sky, its amazing.

darkman2

No one is, or can, say anything will happen for certain. It's just to let you know what may happen and it's a bit of fun aswell. No need to take it too seriously. MT's thread is for the down to earth few days ahead forcasting.

Meanwhile we can continue with the Snowmageddon theme.

Latest fax charts. Easterly - wintry showers in the East




Northerly on the way....




:pac: Sweet Dreams.:)

howlinwolf

ahh they mustnt like the south east cause i cant see any.....bueatiful clear night but no shootin stars

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

WC is short hand for your moderator weathercheck and dm2 is darkman2,the starter of this thread.

Do you see the GFS is forcasting a 1060mb GL high. Could be a record broken during the weekend! 1981 was the last time a 1060mb GL high was observed (I think).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

howlinwolf

doesnt look overly cold on that high chart, the mild weather is still a little too close for my likeing

maquiladora

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

For anyone interested, you can see there on the loop of europe why its cold and getting colder. See how the atlantic is being blocked from coming close to our shores, thats because of the high pressure thats building a barrier thats stopping all that rain and wind from roaring over the atlantic and dumping wet windy mild weather on us, like we had last month. You can see the airflow now coming towards us there is coming down from the northeast, much colder air and that high pressure over us at the moment means we stay pretty much dry.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Do you see the GFS is forcasting a 1060mb GL high. Could be a record broken during the weekend! 1981 was the last time a 1060mb GL high was observed (I think).

Yes,that was a very cold and snowy December for half the country away from munster.
The early days of january saw an easterly and the now infamous 1982 blizzard... [our car disappeared under the drifts outside the hall door in that one and it took nearly 3 weeks for the last patches of snow to go from the ditches even after a week of rain)

maquiladora

N15 Kilygordon
Air Temperature: -4.5°C
Dew Point: -5.8°C

http://www.nratraffic.ie/weather.asp?index=IR034

pauldry

It will all depend on what happens after these situations whether the show comes

First.. rain n drizzle moving down from the Northe Monday evening.

Then Tuesday a low to the East of England is supposed to bring rain showers to the East.

As the week goes on and a NE gets more established the temps will drop

How low is uncertain but from Wednesday on they are meant to. So im gonna wait to Wed I think . The end of the week is showing a Northerly airflow. A good chance of snow.might bring whitening overnigtht at least! (please)

Min

darkman2 wrote: »

Do you see the GFS is forcasting a 1060mb GL high. Could be a record broken during the weekend! 1981 was the last time a 1060mb GL high was observed (I think).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

That is intense indeed.

They better not be using analogue TV reception lol.