Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

sdanseo

Min wrote: »

That is intense indeed.

They better not be using analogue TV reception lol.

Why, would a GL pressure that high knock out the signal? Can it fry brains etc too? :P

Actually I think this is my first post here. Looong time lurker though and cheers darkman for the OP it was very, very informative!

Deep Easterly

bkelly86 wrote: »

Is it usually the case that met eireann are cautious of predicting disruptive weather such as snow until they're 100% sure?

Exactly. Met Eireann are not in a position to ramp and speculate the way we can on here. They are speaking to a much wider public and have to be as objective as possible. I have just watched John Eagleton's forecast on the web and I can't say I blame him for being conservative. The forecast was for the week ahead, which was never forecast, even on here, to be overly cold or wintry. It is not till the end of the week, into the weekend that any wintry potential comes into play, if models are correct.

I think the forecasts written here on Boards over the last few days have been spot on. Becoming cooler, and that is what seems to be happening so far...;)

Deep Easterly

More great model outputs this morning. Chilly theme continues

My pick of the charts is ECM this morning, particularly at 192hrs:



Such a set up has the potential to bring blizzards across Ireland.

It'll never happen of course....:o

eskimocat

What an enormous relief it is to find a whole bunch of people who are into snow, frost, wind, rain etc as myself. So hard not to get jump up and down excited at the thoughts of snow etc...

Trying to learn about weather and find the charts most helpful, esp when there is a note to explain what the poster think will come out of it. Have no science in background what so ever, so any explainations are most welcome.

Last year in North Leitrim we had one glorious full day of snow, snowmen were built and fun was had, thats my wish for next weekend. Fingers crossed.

Eskimo

Graces7

Recently moved to the Blue Stacks and realise we are above the snow line; boy it is COLD today..Lost contact with my feet already.

Glad to have foreknowledge so I can stock up with fuel.

eskimocat wrote: »

What an enormous relief it is to find a whole bunch of people who are into snow, frost, wind, rain etc as myself. So hard not to get jump up and down excited at the thoughts of snow etc...

Trying to learn about weather and find the charts most helpful, esp when there is a note to explain what the poster think will come out of it. Have no science in background what so ever, so any explainations are most welcome.

Last year in North Leitrim we had one glorious full day of snow, snowmen were built and fun was had, thats my wish for next weekend. Fingers crossed.

Eskimo

pauldry

eskimocat wrote: »

What an enormous relief it is to find a whole bunch of people who are into snow, frost, wind, rain etc as myself. So hard not to get jump up and down excited at the thoughts of snow etc...

Trying to learn about weather and find the charts most helpful, esp when there is a note to explain what the poster think will come out of it. Have no science in background what so ever, so any explainations are most welcome.

Last year in North Leitrim we had one glorious full day of snow, snowmen were built and fun was had, thats my wish for next weekend. Fingers crossed.

Eskimo

That one day of snow was Feb 8th:P

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Such a set up has the potential to bring blizzards across Ireland.

It'll never happen of course....:o

Is there not a danger that could just be rain though? I wonder what the 850 temps would be there.

ch750536

maquiladora wrote: »

Is there not a danger that could just be rain though? I wonder what the 850 temps would be there.

Always a danger it may rain in Ireland. Especially when there is a clear sky.

eskimocat

pauldry wrote: »

That one day of snow was Feb 8th:P

It was 4 or 5 inches of heaven, proper fluffy, dry, gleaming white, sparkly snow... BLISSSS I got up at 7am and had our 10 year old out of bed and outside before he was properly woken up lol

Whats the chances of snow like that again this year? or is it more likely to be the wet, slushy, now you see it, now you don't kind (honestly, as long as its white I am happy! lol)

Eskimo x

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Is there not a danger that could just be rain though? I wonder what the 850 temps would be there.

There is a high to certain danger that the set up won't happen at all.

850's temps for the chart referred to:









So far out as to be pointless, but charts like that would bring blizzard potential.

maquiladora

06Z GFS rolling out, looks fine so far, an upgrade for Friday in terms of snow potential for the eastern half of the country but of course precip changes a lot from run to run this far out.

cian1500ww

Curse you all !! You've got my hopes up now

Deep Easterly

cian1500ww wrote: »

Curse you all !! You've got my hopes up now

Welcome to weather watching Cian. Be prepared for disappointment's aplenty.

Elmo5

Met Eireann have this on their website today relating to the weekend:

"There will be some scattered wintry showers of sleet or even snow in northern, eastern and southeastern coastal areas and especially over high ground."

So not confining to higher ground now... this must mean we are really in for it

Wibbler

eskimocat wrote: »

Whats the chances of snow like that again this year? or is it more likely to be the wet, slushy, now you see it, now you don't kind (honestly, as long as its white I am happy! lol)
Eskimo x

All we know for sure is that it's going to get colder. Beyond that, it's impossible to say (yet). It's a step in the right direction, however.

I'm secretly hoping for a repeat of Jan 1982, which is the snow event that sticks out in my memory. It's very unlikely to be anything like that, but for us snow lovers it's very hard not to get our hopes up.

force eleven

I really hate these precipitation charts because they so often fail to deliver, but I couldnt resist the chart for Saturday afternoon....

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2009/12/14/basis06/ukuk/rart/09121918_2_1406.gif?1261242000

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

I really hate these precipitation charts because they so often fail to deliver, but I couldnt resist the chart for Saturday afternoon....

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2009/12/14/basis06/ukuk/rart/09121918_2_1406.gif?1261242000

Yeah if you believe the GFS there is good potential for snow to be seen in most places over the weekend, but thats a long way off and a lot can change before that happens. I'd be very surprised if some places don't get to see snow at some stage over the next 7-10 days, but I think people hoping for a re-run of 81/82 are going to be dissappointed.

yogidc26

Hope this comes true its going to be cold and hope the snow comes with it

billy the squid

the latest reports on met eireann is a little mad

10 at malin head and zero at shannon

maquiladora

Just to get us in the mood. Some snow up in the north moors in Cumbria in the UK right now :

:pac:

Hopefully some of us will see similar views over the next week or so...

Su Campu

I just don't think Ireland's going to see much snow in general. Yes northern coastal parts may get a shower and it'll look all nice 'n wintry, but as for any widespread fall, I don't buy it.

All the models seem to be pretty consistent on the general synoptics - a southerly arctic outbreak for the weekend , but IMO there will be too much airmass modification by the time it reaches us. The 06Z GFS has good H850 CA but the -10°C doesn't even get as far as northern Scotland, despite the perfect advection scenario. As soon as any showers make it inland they will quickly dissipate.

It is going to feel bitterly cold though, and for some lucky few in the far north it will have come off, but as for the rest, I think we'll be a little dissapointed.

Just seen the latest bbc news 24 forecast and they have 2 and 3c in the East of Britain on friday and saturday and 3 to 5c here in Ireland.

That takes us into borderline teritory and depending on dewpoints.
If it snowed at that sort of temp,it would want to be very heavy to settle at low ground and would certainly disappear quickly once it stopped.

They didn't go beyond saturday but at that point had a very defined stiff easterly.

Keep watching I suppose as speculation on fi here while nice is not what is going to happen,it's one of many options...all of which are very cold though.

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

It is going to feel bitterly cold though, and for some lucky few in the far north it will have come off, but as for the rest, I think we'll be a little dissapointed.

Frankly,that has no basis in fact...I'd advise people to ignore the "only on the north coast" bit.
I wish people would stop posting rubbish here

It is possible that nothing may have happened by saturday or sunday anywhere.

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

I wish people would stop posting rubbish here

Charming :rolleyes:

Su Campu

Deleted User wrote: »

Frankly,that has no basis in fact...I'd advise people to ignore the "only on the north coast" bit.
I wish people would stop posting rubbish here

Just my opinion, at this stage it as right or as wrong as anyone else's here and I have a right to give it. Given what would appear at this stage to be the reliance on pure low level instability for precipitation (cold airmass over relatively warm sea surface), that would mean that any showers would quickly lose their lifting mechanism as they move inland. That's not rubbish, that's fact....well as fact as fact can be, 100 hours out.

It's not the fact I've seen in 30+ years of weather watching...
Showers often drive well inland.
It's futile declaring where they will be at this length out.

200motels

Deleted User wrote: »

Frankly,that has no basis in fact...I'd advise people to ignore the "only on the north coast" bit.
I wish people would stop posting rubbish here

It is possible that nothing may have happened by saturday or sunday anywhere.

I agree entirely. Nobody knows for sure, we'll just have to wait and see.

squonk

Agree with Black Briar. In my location I'm not expecting snow even if we get showers but having spent this period last year on boards watching models in FI talking of a whiteout in or around Christmas that always got pushed out as the runs rolled out, I'm not going for it again this year. People posting up charts for next Monday/Tuesday are posting rubbish IMHO. I'm delighted to see a cool down and that's keeping me happy this week. Much as I like the weather and snow and all, I'll be keeping my powder dry until Thursday or Friday when, if the model runs then show a whiteout for Sunday, I'll start getting excited. For now, lovely, lovely cold and that's as far as I'm taking the enthusiasm!

pauldry

The 21st looks to be the coldest day on wetterzentrale at present. Some forecasts put the temp for this as 3c others have it as 5c both are quite cold. Oh. I am only talking about Sligo in those temp predictions so please dont come at me saying im talking rubbish. We can all wait and see and just keep putting predictions on. Its fun to watch and a general pattern of predictions will usually emerge.

Su Campu

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not the fact I've seen in 30+ years of weather watching...
Showers often drive well inland.
It's futile declaring where they will be at this length out.

They can of course, but in mid winter cold snaps with cold landmasses they are generally confined to windward coastal areas. And all I'm doing is making a guess like everyone else on what the setup will be....certain synoptic setups can strongly hint as to where the bulk of precipitation will be, like the one I outlined above. I don't claim to be right or wrong, but if everyone else can have a stab at it then so can I.

You're not the only one who's watched weather for years...