Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

leahyl

Woohoo so there'll be snow of some sort!

Ah this brings me back to the snow thread of last year when i got all excited that the snow was coming and then nothing happened........:D

munsterlegend

i'd prefer if met eireann were stating there is a risk of snow for the end of the week. have they access to information which lay forecasters would not? the weekend looks the best bet for snow and colder temperatures at the moment judging by this and the NW site.

Rougies

leahyl wrote: »

Woohoo so there'll be snow of some sort!

Ah this brings me back to the snow thread of last year when i got all excited that the snow was coming and then nothing happened........:D

Speak for yourself

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055477440

Villain

I'm not sure whether my wxsim forecast is trying to avoid the hype whether its going to corrrect its been fairly spot on to date. It is customised for Tullow, Co. Carlow: http://www.carlowweather.com/wxsimforecast.php

leahyl

Rougies wrote: »

Speak for yourself

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055477440

Yes yes i know it happened everywhere BUT cork!! No need to rub it in!!;)

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

i'd prefer if met eireann were stating there is a risk of snow for the end of the week.

They do mention snow in their current outlook :

THURSDAY, FRIDAY : Turning much colder with mainly northeast to east winds. There will be some scattered wintry showers of sleet or even snow in northern, eastern and southeastern coastal areas and especially over high ground.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

i'd prefer if met eireann were stating there is a risk of snow for the end of the week. have they access to information which lay forecasters would not? the weekend looks the best bet for snow and colder temperatures at the moment judging by this and the NW site.

If you ever want to see how conservative ME have become-then compare the BBC NI forecast to the ME one for the exact same part of the country when we [here] think snow is likely in say 24hrs.

About 2 or 3 years ago the Eagle stuck his neck out and forecast snow that should have happened.
It rained and sleeted.

Similar immediate time frame mistakes have been made by the UKmo.
It's a tough and serious job they have,unlike our approach here which we won't be sued over or seriously dissed in the papers or whatever.

force eleven

Well, hopefully this winter delivers a decent snowfall here at least, at some stage. The last decent fall was December 2000, five or six inch fall that time and it lasted for more than the usual few hours. Sure, we've had the usual inch or 2 falls since then but nothing really to write home about.

The thing about the Dec 2000 fall, was that it was totally unexpected, Met Eireann had predicted a few snow showers in the west and north but a small polar low formed unexpectedly drifting from the northwest and into the midlands and it started snowing at 11 o'clock in the morning until 7 that night, heavy and drifting. I still hope for that kind of set up again to deliver, and it proves that once you get the setup established, you can get that type of event to occur,so hopefully this weekend may do that.

leahyl

force eleven wrote: »

Well, hopefully this winter delivers a decent snowfall here at least, at some stage. The last decent fall was December 2000, five or six inch fall that time and it lasted for more than the usual few hours. Sure, we've had the usual inch or 2 falls since then but nothing really to write home about.

The thing about the Dec 2000 fall, was that it was totally unexpected, Met Eireann had predicted a few snow showers in the west and north but a small polar low formed unexpectedly drifting from the northwest and into the midlands and it started snowing at 11 o'clock in the morning until 7 that night, heavy and drifting. I still hope for that kind of set up again to deliver, and it proves that once you get the setup established, you can get that type of event to occur,so hopefully this weekend may do that.

Oh i so hope something like this happens again! On Christmas Eve - that would be perfect!! And then in the morning you'd wake up and the place would be covered! I'm such a romantic!

Lets keep all the positivity going people!!:D

opr

So how does the 12Z GFS look ?

Opr

maquiladora

opr wrote: »

So how does the 12Z GFS look ?

Opr

Looks good so far, but still rolling out, looks like an upgrade for snow showers on Friday on this run? I know precip amounts change from run to run so have to take that with a big pinch of salt, but its not bad news either.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks good so far, but still rolling out, looks like an upgrade for snow showers on Friday on this run? I know precip amounts change from run to run so have to take that with a big pinch of salt, but its not bad news either.

Yeah, the 850s are lower and arrive earlier on Friday so slight upgrade for showers in the east on this run.

forkassed

1070 Greenland High :eek:

Rougies

Here's something from the 12z to keep the hopes up (except Cork/Kerry as usual)

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Here's something from the 12z to keep the hopes up (except Cork/Kerry as usual)

I wouldn't be too concerned about the specifics of where the precip is on a chart that far ahead, so many variables that can change, the main thing is that the pattern looks fairly good. :pac:

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

I wouldn't be too concerned about the specifics of where the precip is on a chart that far ahead, so many variables that can change, the main thing is that the pattern looks fairly good. :pac:

Yes, but it's nice to get a bit of eye candy every so often (and we don't have a ramping thread here)

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Yes, but it's nice to get a bit of eye candy every so often (and we don't have a ramping thread here)

Lets hope it just doesn't stay as eye candy!

(Maybe we should call it FI-candy? :pac: )

force eleven

Rougies wrote: »

Yes, but it's nice to get a bit of eye candy every so often (and we don't have a ramping thread here)

Did someone mention ramping...

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp

Looks like it still has the same glitches that had 300 mph winds over Westmeath last week :pac:

Su Campu

12Z GFS still hinting at marine instability only, with showers on north-facing coastal areas (sorry for harping on about it again!!:rolleyes: )

maquiladora

Su Campu wrote: »

12Z GFS still hinting at marine instability only, with showers on north-facing coastal areas (sorry for harping on about it again!!:rolleyes: )

But the frame before that (138 hours) has snow showers right across the midlands.
It's also one run of one model showing a chart 100+ hours away, the 12Z tomorrow will probably look different again... :pac:

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

But the frame before that (138 hours) has snow showers right across the midlands.
It's also one run of one model showing a chart 100+ hours away, the 12Z tomorrow will probably look different again... :pac:

Oh I agree, pinches of salt and all that!

maquiladora

ECM 12Z looks ok to me at 144, seems very similar to GFS on this run so far too...

Timistry

Rougies wrote: »

Here's something from the 12z to keep the hopes up (except Cork/Kerry as usual)

Please dont do this to me again! Its only snowed here properly twice in 23 years and I cant remember the first event (1991). Looks like another non-event

maquiladora

ECM 12Z has no atlantic breakdown out to 240 hrs :pac:

francosp

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM 12Z has no atlantic breakdown out to 240 hrs :pac:

Discussing it on Sky News they reckon once the cold gets here, it could stick around for up to 15 days... :eek::eek:

Gonzo

im just gonna take each day as it comes still not telling any family members of the possiblility of snow till things look clearer. Metcheck has us down for snow on Christmas Day, 2moro that could read 12C and rain with an isolated hurricane, there website varies so much from day to day.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

im just gonna take each day as it comes still not telling any family members of the possiblility of snow till things look clearer. Metcheck has us down for snow on Christmas Day, 2moro that could read 12C and rain with an isolated hurricane, there website varies so much from day to day.

yeah its still very marginal...evelyn in her forecast wasn't giving too much away..i suppose its too early yet to be warning about saturday/sunday when things can change so much. sky news did state it could be a prolonged cold spell though. still the signs are good which is all we can hope for.

TheGreenGiant

Wow this chart on the latest run shows the polar low establishing itself just north east of Scotland. Its looking like we are in for some really cold conditions and even up to 240 hrs even though its FI still shows no breakdown with our usual Atlantic weather. Things could get really interesting from the weekend onwards. All I can hope from this cold spell is that we get a good dusting of snow! :D





Even the GFS model is showing the same thing!

Pangea

Looking Good from this!
Get your tickets ready to be stamped lol

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Dec 2009 to Monday 28 Dec 2009:

Cloudy with rain, sleet or snow in the north throughout with some significant snowfall possible over high ground and hills in Scotland and northwestern England. Most southern and central parts should be dry and cold with bright or sunny spells at first, but cloud and rain, sleet or snow in the north will gradually spread southwards to many areas during the week. Temperatures are likely to be rather cold or cold throughout, especially overnight, with frosts and icy conditions in many parts. Over the Christmas period it is likely to remain unsettled in most areas with further outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow. It may become milder from the south towards the end of the period.

Updated: 1231 on Mon 14 Dec 2009

Gonzo

if this cold spell turns out to be a reality i hope if it does snow alot that it's gone by 28th December or so, need to get out and go about to celebrations, new year's eve etc etc.