Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

Su Campu

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

Wow this chart on the latest run shows the polar low establishing itself just north east of Scotland.

That's not a polar low. A polar low is a small scale short-lived low that forms in a northerly arctic airflow over relatively warm seas. They are formed through forcing from below, whereas the low in the chart is generated by upper atmospheric QG forcing and is much larger in both spatial and time scales.

But whatever the name, that's the sort of thing we're looking for!

200motels

Just looking at the Accu weather page for Waterford City on Christmas Day and it has rain with a temp of 8c, now I know there sites are all over the place but I have a funny feeling that's all we'll get down here, the usual rain.

eskimocat

Su Campu wrote: »

But whatever the name, that's the sort of thing we're looking for!

Ohhhhh I got a lovely shiver there!! the charts are starting to take on meaning to me now, and I thought that it looked quite good too....

Right need to get wellies for the young fella and extra socks for gloves and then its eyes to the skies.... North Leitrim... fingers crossed...

P.s how do you say thanks on someones post? Without posting full reply I mean.

DOCARCH

200motels wrote: »

Just looking at the Accu weather page for Waterford City on Christmas Day and it has rain with a temp of 8c, now I know there sites are all over the place but I have a funny feeling that's all we'll get down here, the usual rain.

Cheer yourself up! Look at Metcheck http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=waterford

.........make sure to have some salt near you when you look!

francosp

eskimocat wrote: »

P.s how do you say thanks on someones post? Without posting full reply I mean.

The little thumbs up icon somewhere over there =====================>

Pangea

DOCARCH wrote: »

Cheer yourself up! Look at Metcheck http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=waterford

.........make sure to have some salt near you when you look!

looking great for snow where i am too , gives temps of -1 during the day though, seems a bit too good to be true lol and the temp doesnt rise past 0 for all the days around christmas.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=donegal

Trogdor

Su Campu wrote: »

That's not a polar low. A polar low is a small scale short-lived low that forms in a northerly arctic airflow over relatively warm seas. They are formed through forcing from below, whereas the low in the chart is generated by upper atmospheric QG forcing and is much larger in both spatial and time scales.

But whatever the name, that's the sort of thing we're looking for!

Indeed:D some snow this weekend for some areas anyway is starting to become more likely by looks of it now:D Possilby he could have meant the polar vortex..?

patneve

According to the latest GFS 18z, there COULD be a few sleet/snow showers late on Thursday going on into Friday on the E. Coast

maquiladora

18Z GFS looks like another upgrade for later this week, showing a good chance of snow showers for the east and south as early as Thursday evening on this run, Friday looks better for the east and southeast here too.

Nothing set in stone but its encouraging. :pac:

patneve

If this chart came off (unlikely) it would make me smile, BIG TIME (note the low pressure off the wexford coast)

krobo

eskimocat wrote: »

Ohhhhh I got a lovely shiver there!! the charts are starting to take on meaning to me now, and I thought that it looked quite good too....

Right need to get wellies for the young fella and extra socks for gloves and then its eyes to the skies.... North Leitrim... fingers crossed...

P.s how do you say thanks on someones post? Without posting full reply I mean.

I have recently learned that the thanks function becomes available after you have made 10 posts.

maquiladora

18Z GFS is fairly remarkable, showing maximum daytime surface temps of -3 in the midlands next Monday and enough snow pretty much everywhere at some point between Thursday and the following Tuesday to make everyone happy. Would be nice if that came off.... :pac:

The only bad thing is the Christmas Eve atlantic breakdown! :P

greysides

francosp wrote: »

The little thumbs up icon somewhere over there =====================>

Or here.

jenzz

Pangea wrote: »

looking great for snow where i am too , gives temps of -1 during the day though, seems a bit too good to be true lol and the temp doesnt rise past 0 for all the days around christmas.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=donegal

hey pangea - Throw Wicklow in there... Is that snow I see christmas day ????????????? lol might get my white christmas without having to move in with you lol

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS looks like another upgrade for later this week, showing a good chance of snow showers for the east and south as early as Thursday evening on this run, Friday looks better for the east and southeast here too.

Nothing set in stone but its encouraging. :pac:

Yep another upgrade for Thurs/Fri in the east. I've heard some people suggesting the GFS had been underestimating the convective precip from the Irish Sea and that it will be upgraded gradually as it draws closer to the event.
Looks like that trend has started to evolve, let's hope it continues!

Villain

Rougies wrote: »

Yep another upgrade for Thurs/Fri in the east. I've heard some people suggesting the GFS had been underestimating the convective precip from the Irish Sea and that it will be upgraded gradually as it draws closer to the event.
Looks like that trend has started to evolve, let's hope it continues!

Lake affect Snow as it is sometimes called is very hard to forecast and giving the right conditions can bubble up showers very quickly. But looking beyond 72hrs in these types of setups normally results in let downs

Rougies

Villain wrote: »

Lake affect Snow as it is sometimes called is very hard to forecast and giving the right conditions can bubble up showers very quickly. But looking beyond 72hrs in these types of setups normally results in let downs

Ok, I'll come back down to earth. My ninja ramping techniques obviously aren't stealthy enough

FlawedGenius

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209
For Wednesday night it shows a good bit of precipitation over the east coast of Ireland, is that snow?:D:confused:

pauldry

THIS IS HOW BBC SEE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS:cool:



Summary

Cold and quite dry at first. Unsettled later

December started on quite a wet note. With pressure low, there was a series of fronts bringing rain to most parts. During the last week we've seen atmospheric pressure rise, so the fronts have been kept at bay. It's dried up for most but we've also seen some harsh frost along with some dense and stubborn fog.
The same area of high pressure will be near to our shores until the end of the year, resulting in cold but relatively dry conditions. Early next year it stays cold but as pressure begins to fall we will see more changeable, wetter weather.


Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009
Cold winds

High pressure centred to the northwest of the UK will generate a cold and brisk north or northeasterly wind. With that temperatures will be on the low side both by day and night. It will feel very cold in the wind.
With the winds coming in over the North Sea, eastern areas are most likely to see some showers. Those showers will probably contain some sleet or snow. Western parts of the UK should be much drier and could fare quite well in terms of sunshine amounts. Elsewhere sunshine amounts will be near normal.


Monday 21 December 2009 to Sunday 27 December 2009
Cold and dry

High pressure dominates and edges a bit further south over the UK. Dry conditions will prevail with frost and fog returning. It stays cold with temperatures well below the norm by day and night.
Rainfall is expected to be in short supply, although there could be some wintry showers in southeast England. Sunshine amounts are are expected to be close to or above average.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 10 January 2010
Cold but more unsettled

Staying cold but turning more unsettled. Temperatures still below average and with more cloud around, sunshine amounts are also likely to be below average. There could be quite a bit of rain around and with such low temperatures, some snow is also likely.
Confidence in the forecast at this range is quite low.

maquiladora

GerCPM wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209
For Wednesday night it shows a good bit of precipitation over the east coast of Ireland, is that snow?:D:confused:

Nope, looks like light rain.

jaffa20

Snowing* in Greystones!!!:D



























*oh wait, that's rain:(

nilhg

Reality check

GFS ensembles for my locality



Cold and mostly dry is all I see..........

Until the mild and rain comes back........

Tell me I'm wrong.......

maquiladora

nilhg wrote: »

Reality check

GFS ensembles for my locality



Cold and mostly dry is all I see..........

Until the mild and rain comes back........

Tell me I'm wrong.......

850 temps below the 30 year average for over a week there, six days of -5 or below 850s and then after the 22nd there is a big spread indicating a fair bit of uncertainty about a breakdown, look at the 12Z ECM, it has no breakdown even at 240 hours.

nilhg

maquiladora wrote: »

850 temps below the 30 year average for over a week there, six days of -5 or below 850s and then after the 22nd there is a big spread indicating a fair bit of uncertainty about a breakdown, look at the 12Z ECM, it has no breakdown even at 240 hours.

True, but for snow you need moisture, I just don't see the source. 240hrs is deep FI not really worth the paper it's written on.....

snow plow

nilhg wrote: »

Reality check

GFS ensembles for my locality



Cold and mostly dry is all I see..........

Until the mild and rain comes back........

Tell me I'm wrong.......

You are wrong, somewhat.

The gfs can easily under estimate the amount of precipitation coming in off the Irish sea and at very close range. For example back in feb it said I would get 0.05mm of precip for the next day, by 3pm the next day I had 8CM of snow on the ground. So expect it to upgrade for Thursday/Friday and beyond...






Dan

maquiladora

nilhg wrote: »

True, but for snow you need moisture, I just don't see the source.

nilhg

snow plow wrote: »

You are wrong, somewhat.

The gfs can easily under estimate the amount of precipitation coming in off the Irish sea and at very close range. For example back in feb it said I would get 0.05mm of precip for the next day, by 3pm the next day I had 8CM of snow on the ground. So expect it to upgrade for Thursday/Friday and beyond...






Dan

I somewhat agree with you, but notice I said the GFS ensembles are for my location, in an easterly I'm in the lee of the wicklow mountains...

In a more general sense I say I wouldn't be surprised if what you say happens but I definitely wouldn't expect it, you really need 4 or 5 factors to come together for sustained snow.

nilhg

maquiladora wrote: »

I'll get me snowplough.;)

snow plow

nilhg wrote: »

I'll get me snowplough.;)

yes, how do you change you're username on
Here? mines spelt wrong.





Dan

Pangea

In the rte 2 weather forecast , karina buckley said there would be snow flurries on thursday.