Climate could warm to record levels in 2010

octo

After their summer 2009 PR disaster the UKMO are bravely forecasting a possibly record-breaking year in 2010.

A combination of man-made global warming and a moderate warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as El Niño, means it is very likely that 2010 will be a warmer year globally than 2009.

Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850.

The latest forecast from our climate scientists, shows the global temperature is forecast to be almost 0.6 °C above the 1961–90 long-term average. This means that it is more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998.

A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or if there was a large volcanic eruption. We will review the forecast during 2010 as observation data become available.

Looking further ahead, our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010–2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far — 1998.

Background information
•The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
•Global temperature for 2010 is expected to be 14.58 °C, the warmest on record.
•The warmest year on record is 1998, which reached 14.52 °C, was a year dominated by an extreme El Niño
•Over the ten years, 2000–2009, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
•Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2009, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.44 °C, can be compared with the identical forecast value of 14.44 °C.
The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Each December or January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects, volcanic cooling effects if known, and natural variations of the oceans.

mike65

I'll prepare by buying tarpaulin and a snow plough.

diverdriver

Each December or January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia

Hmm, that explains last year's forecast.:D Never mind keep saying it and it will happen eventually.

weisses

http://cfact.eu/2009/12/07/lord-monckton-discusses-climategate-at-the-second-international-climate-conference/


I'll go with his prediction ... makes sense

octo

mike65 wrote: »

I'll prepare by buying tarpaulin and a snow plough.

Well i think they were a bit foolhardy, but I guess the thinking is that there's a steady upward trend due to AGW which has been held in check for a few years by el nina and the low point of the solar cycle, but is now due to kick back in again. Makes sense to me but time will tell I suppose.

M.T. Cranium

I think we're into a bit of a long-term decline even if it amounts to only hundredths of a degree each year, and the signals for 2010 are mixed. The strong but west-based El Nino is bound to have a positive effect relative to 2008 or 2009 figures, but the influence of long-term solar activity minimum points to slightly colder values, then there's the more immediate observation that the arctic is loaded with cold at an early stage this winter, and several regions have seen large negative anomalies in the past few weeks. If these were to continue into January and February, it could make the annual average a few tenths lower even if there's a recovery later in the year.

Then there's the ongoing question of how these annual averages are calculated and what the integrity of the whole process is, given that we keep hearing about higher and higher global averages, but our own local climates are not at record high levels. They must be somewhere, or this is clearly bogus. I'm a bit of a skeptic about this "warmest years ever" business, given the small range from average to warm in global terms, it wouldn't take too much fiddling or tweaking to produce a higher average, like some arbitrary changes to past data as we saw with the MWP when it seemed inconveniently warm.

I'm afraid this whole global climate reporting process has come into disrepute as a result of the shenanigans in the climategate e-mails, and I tend to trust things like the CET or the long-term Irish records more than these global values which can involve dodgy statistics with who knows what degree of manipulation?

By the way, the climate here in western Canada has cooled considerably since 2006; the past three years just ending now appear to be 1 to 2 C deg cooler than the 1971-2000 averages while 2001-05 were slightly warmer than those averages. This is probably a regional effect from the change in the Pacific oscillation allowing colder waters to mass offshore here, plus the rebound effects in the arctic after the 2007 open water anomalies.

dm09

weisses wrote: »

http://cfact.eu/2009/12/07/lord-monckton-discusses-climategate-at-the-second-international-climate-conference/


I'll go with his prediction ... makes sense

An excellent presentation!, well worth a watch!*




*not recommended for global warming hippies or climate change "activists"!!

Deep Easterly

El nino forecast to decline over the next few months:







Source: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast
/seasonal_range_forecast/


My guess is that the lag effect of the peak could be what the UK met are basing their 2010 forecast on. T'wll be interesting to see how the forecast verifies at the end of 2010.