STORMONT; It's gone ominously quiet on P&J.

ardmaj

I see that Martin Mcguiness has gone quiet on the transfer of Policing to Stormont. this can only mean he has given the SoS clearance to reinstate the suspension of said circus on hill in January. The westminster election campaign could start as early as the first week in February if,as expected Brown calls it for late march to avoid the budget. I expect Jim Allister can't wait to get stuck in.

Victor

It could be that there are talks on the QT.

Yixian

Stormont has retired for xmas, the deadline on P&J was effectively last week before recess. Nothing will change on either side now, the christmas deadline has not been met and the new year will probably bring new elections and if SF come tops, which they almost certainly will, collapse of Stormont.

It only remains to be seen what takes it's place. Joint direct rule between London and Dublin the best solution imo.

Fratton Fred

Yixian wrote: »

It only remains to be seen what takes it's place. Joint direct rule between London and Dublin the best solution imo.

If that is the case, how much of the budget will Dublin be paying?

Yixian

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If that is the case, how much of the budget will Dublin be paying?

Arguably, London is responsible for NI and all it's debt, Dublin just has to play an administrative role, not a financial one

And if NI was ever to rejoin the Republic, could try bugging the American diaspora in government for something like an "Irish Unification Fund"

Fratton Fred

I think at the moment his recession has put other things on people's minds.

no one is killing anybody at the moment (with obviously a few exceptions) but the cost of reunification would be massive, i really don't think anyone is too worried about rocking the boat until financial security is secured.

it is the same in Scotland, the whole RBS thing has made a lot of people worry more about their jobs and their own financial security thanthey are about "Romantic" ideals of nationalism.

I'm not saying the question has gone away, or is any less burning, it is just that there are bigger fish to fry at the moment.

Yixian

Of course, but now is a good time to get the groundwork ready for a 2014+ reconsideration under better circumstances.

Which coincidentally will probably be a time when the UK is at it's economic worst and Ireland not doing too badly.

Fratton Fred

Yixian wrote: »

Of course, but now is a good time to get the groundwork ready for a 2014+ reconsideration under better circumstances.

Which coincidentally will probably be a time when the UK is at it's economic worst and Ireland not doing too badly.

what makes you say that?

You are a lot more optimistic about the Irish economy than I am. All I can see is ever increasing debt, an albatross that is NAMA and little or no exports to help refill the coffers.

I think that is what people will be looking at when they are laying the ground work. Do we give up our public sector job and free healthcare to join a country that appears to be entering a very long term recession.

Yixian

Fratton Fred wrote: »

what makes you say that?

You are a lot more optimistic about the Irish economy than I am. All I can see is ever increasing debt, an albatross that is NAMA and little or no exports to help refill the coffers.

I think that is what people will be looking at when they are laying the ground work. Do we give up our public sector job and free healthcare to join a country that appears to be entering a very long term recession.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/14/darling-optimism-misplaced

As things stand, all the ingredients are there to make 2010 a real stinker. The sell-off in the gilts market last week was ominous; the economy has an awfully bad smell.

The chancellor can pencil in a return to growth of between 1% and 1.5% in 2010 following the 4.75% drop this year. History suggests, though, that this is the moment of maximum danger. The worst year for the Attlee government was 1947, but the devaluation of sterling did not take place until 1949. The crisis of the mid-1970s was at its most acute between the three-day week in early 1974 and the inflation peak in 1975 but it was a further year before the pound came under severe pressure in the markets.

The recent budget here in Britain hasn't really addressed anything and Britain still has to deal with the fallout when QE has to be ended, which will be soon.

Britain, as usual, has tried to pay later for it's debts today, and in the meantime is growing the eventually double dip recession it's headed for in the next 2 years.

Ireland is at least paying it's debts off now, and that's creating a lot of positive perception abroad.

Things ain't too bad in the long run for Ireland if it's shrewd enough.

Fratton Fred

Yixian wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/14/darling-optimism-misplaced



The recent budget here in Britain hasn't really addressed anything and Britain still has to deal with the fallout when QE has to be ended, which will be soon.

Britain, as usual, has tried to pay later for it's debts today, and in the meantime is growing the eventually double dip recession it's headed for in the next 2 years.

Ireland is at least paying it's debts off now, and that's creating a lot of positive perception abroad.

Things ain't too bad in the long run for Ireland if it's shrewd enough.

I think you are looking at Ireland through green tinted glasses.

The UK Budget was nothing more than a pre election sham, when Labour lose the Toies will put some proper cuts in place.

the Irish budget did nothing and as i say, there is still the massive unknown factor of NAMA. The government has made some very optimistic assumptions about property prices that pretty much everyone realises are false.

Where is the manufacturing in Ireland, where are the big financial institutions, where is the knowledge base (I know the answer to that one, it is currently on a plane to london.)

Things are going to get a lot worse in Ireland before they get better.

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

Stormont has retired for xmas, the deadline on P&J was effectively last week before recess. Nothing will change on either side now, the christmas deadline has not been met and the new year will probably bring new elections and if SF come tops, which they almost certainly will, collapse of Stormont.

It only remains to be seen what takes it's place. Joint direct rule between London and Dublin the best solution imo.

The three way split in unionism means that nationalist voters [whether normally sdlp voters or SF voters are now in the driving seat,and can now adopt Jim Allister's [and Bob McCartney's] tactic of voting sinn fein in next assembly election to ensure no unionist will operate the executive at Stormont as Deputy to Marty.
in this way DUP [and any other unionist party] can be kept out of power here indefinitely, while shinners keep the votes in hand.

ardmaj

ardmaj wrote: »

The three way split in unionism means that nationalist voters [whether normally sdlp voters or SF voters are now in the driving seat,and can now adopt Jim Allister's [and Bob McCartney's] tactic of voting sinn fein in next assembly election to ensure no unionist will operate the executive at Stormont as Deputy to Marty.
in this way DUP [and any other unionist party] can be kept out of power here indefinitely, while shinners keep the votes in hand.

That should have read with brackets closed after 'whether normally SDLP or SF voters'