Let's grab this golden chance - David McWilliams - is FF cunning enough?

Yixian

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/12/13/lets-grab-this-golden-chance

If I had the ear of finance minister Brian Lenihan, I’d be telling him not to look a gift horse in the mouth. The British government has this week handed Ireland a gilt-edged opportunity to kick-start the battered IFSC and, with it, the fortunes of thousands of young Irish graduates and workers.

Last Wednesday, the British chancellor, yielding to popular pressure for revenge, announced he would tax the bonuses of high-flying investment bankers. He announced a 50 per cent tax on any bonus over £25,000.This, for most mere mortals, would seem nothing to grumble about until you see what the reality is for those bankers.

When you consider that for the 5,000-odd Goldman Sachs employees in London, the average pay – of which bonuses are the most significant proportion – is »500,000 a year, you can see how this ‘super-tax’ will make them nervous.

While it’s easy to understand the British government’s motives, particularly as the bankers are unrepentant about their role in last year’s collapse of the global economy, the result is that these bankers will simply look to leave London.

These are the most footloose of all workers; their capital is their contact book and their bank’s balance sheet their armoury. They will move to wherever the feel they can work and make money.

Whether you like them or not, these are an asset that many countries can ill-afford to ignore. That is why Luxembourg, Ireland, Dubai, Singapore and, of course, Switzerland have been trying to make sure that financial services are part of the country’s industrial infrastructure.

The British government has given us an opportunity like the one presented to us when Intel, Microsoft and Pfizer were looking for a place to locate outside the United States in the 1990s.They chose Ireland for tax purposes and for the quality and availability of the workforce.

It was ‘win-win’ for us, as we had no real multinational industry so we got all the benefits; we got jobs we didn’t have before, tax revenue we didn’t have before, and spending we didn’t have before.

Now, quite feasibly, we could do the same again, because investment bankers – the ones which drive the economy of London – are the targets of the Labour government. We could be their port in a storm.

The Minister for Finance should seize the opportunity and get on the phone to the head of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and tell them that Dublin welcomes them and is open for their business. God knows we need a bit of luck and now is our chance to grab it. But why would a big investment bank come here to Ireland? Apart from the fact that its senior employees were about to jump ship because of taxation, what other reasons could there be to come here?

First, in a 24-hour trading business, Ireland shares the same time zone as London and therefore acts as a platform to bridge the Asian markets, which open during our evening, and the American markets, which open during our afternoon.

Second, we have a huge oversupply of commercial office space in Dublin. Any incoming bank could get great property deals, which – among other things – could save us putting these properties into Nama. Equally, we have good links to Europe and the US. God knows Aer Lingus needs some regular business passengers. Ryanair would welcome the challenge too.

The IFSC has the technological infrastructure. The same language helps enormously for employees wanting to move here with the minimum of hassle. Third, the 12.5 per cent corporation tax is attractive for a large investment bank.

While our tax rates will rise this year and next, income tax in Britain before the ‘bonus tax’ for bankers will also be high. Fourth, Dublin and Ireland offers international investment bankers a good quality of life, good schools and a government that is not targeting them exclusively. Why wouldn’t they move here?

Let’s look at this from our side of the deal. For us, it looks like a ‘win-win’ outcome. Think about tax alone. In Britain, financial services companies constitute 25 per cent of total corporation tax. This is a figure of £11 billion.

This obviously doesn’t include the huge amount of tax the employees of these companies pay in income tax, Vat and stamp duty.

For Ireland, even if we were to poach one of the giant investment banks, the contribution to our faltering tax revenue would be enormous. Equally, as we have seen with pharmaceuticals in Cork, once one big name comes to Ireland, others tend to follow. This is know as clustering in economics and it is easy to see how attracting a huge name like Goldman Sachs to Ireland could begin a process where others copy and move some, if not all, of their operation here.

When I worked in investment banking in London, in the 1990s,the majority of my colleagues were foreign. We worked with non-English clients and most of the deals we did were not in Britain but in Europe and further afield. London really only served to ‘host’ the industry.

Most people I worked with liked London, but if they felt the government there was out to get them they would have moved on just as easily to an adjacent English-speaking jurisdiction that was prepared to open its doors to them.

Even if we attracted 20 per cent of the business – about as much as we could manage now anyway – the positives would be enormous. Just think of the prospects of our own workers who are now waiting in our zombie banks for the horrible but inevitable chat with the boss. Because of the stupidity of their top brass, Irish banks expanded rapidly, fuelled only by an unsustainable increase in property. Now many thousands will be laid off as the banks contract.

Where are they going to go? Where are they going to use their skills, if not in new banks that might come into Ireland? This is the opportunity and the IFSC, with its new Luas link, provides a fantastic and obvious home for these highly-motivated foreign bankers. The more of them we have, the more they will need to employ local people with banking acumen. Off we would go on a virtuous circle. This is our chance to do what Brian Lenihan calls our ‘‘patriotic duty’’.

‘‘England’s difficulty, Ireland’s opportunity’’ – wasn’t that what the forefathers of Fianna Fáil used to say?

After all, if the British government is prepared to entice our shoppers to Sainsburys in Newry, then we should be prepared to poach their bankers for the IFSC in Dublin.

We all hate bankers but with regulation, maybe capitalising on Britains losses could be the shot in the ass Ireland needs to get a head start out of recession?

MI5

Yixian wrote: »

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/12/13/lets-grab-this-golden-chance



We all hate bankers but with regulation, maybe capitalising on Britains losses could be the shot in the ass Ireland needs to get a head start out of recession?

Don't think a lot of McWilliams, simple sound bite solutions sometimes, but he could be on to something useful here.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agFRCkWkYW0Y&pos=6

Dannyboy83

Read it yesterday
Couldn't see it working myself, it would be like the Saudi's letting their oil go.

Financial services is just too important to the UK economy.

Rujib1

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Read it yesterday
Couldn't see it working myself, it would be like the Saudi's letting their oil go.

Financial services is just too important to the UK economy.

You are right, but political expediency, is more important to the UK government right now. Anything which even looks like giving a slap in the face to bankers, is good for votes.

P. Breathnach

One of the major contributors to our present problems was the encouragement of a buccaneering approach to banking, and that was in no small part so that the IFSC could attract those banks that didn't want to be subject to discipline. We got some tax revenue from them, and a little bit of employment (many of them were little more than brass-plate operations). And we got the light-touch regulation of whic we are now so critical.

I don't think it would be good to add to our reputation as the financial cowboys of the EU.

maninasia

This makes a lot of sense to me. BTW it was the local banks who got into the biggest hot water...Anglo, BOI, AIB etc...

Liam Byrne

Yixian wrote: »

We all hate bankers but with regulation, maybe capitalising on Britains losses could be the shot in the ass Ireland needs to get a head start out of recession?

1) We supposedly had regulation.
2) Taxing these pricks more will just make them want more bonuses and commission, which will make things worse
3) We've gambled enough on bad foundations to date, without basing our recovery on these pricks too

Yixian

maninasia wrote: »

This makes a lot of sense to me. BTW it was the local banks who got into the biggest hot water...Anglo, BOI, AIB etc...

That's true but I do agree with P. Breathnach that 1) it's banking that got most of the developed world in this mess and 2) financial services is NEVER an "all eggs in one basket" solution.

However, taking advantage of this could be the perfect short term stimulus for Ireland. First you convince a couple of the banks feeling London as it's HQ and net them for Dublin, then, hopefully, under the new high rise policy for the city they build a couple of scrapers and fill in some of the vacant premises - meaning that they supply both money and employment to the economy as well as the outward appearance of success.

That'd be a good way to quickly jump forward a few years in the economy and a good position from which to build the knowledge economy.



Is the government going to actually do anything about this though? Because otherwise I just see them going straight to Switzerland. If the government grabbed them and said hey, doing business here isn't going to get any harder for you and look, we have the perfect venue for your HQs in Dublin with good and improving infrastructure - I reckon they'd bag a couple big shots.

And that's only a good thing right now, Ireland is in a bad place atm, it's entitled to play the game a bit to jump back ahead of the game I think.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

1) We supposedly had regulation.
2) Taxing these pricks more will just make them want more bonuses and commission, which will make things worse
3) We've gambled enough on bad foundations to date, without basing our recovery on these pricks too

Definitely, the recovery shouldn't be based on banking, but a little shot in the arm can't hurt.

The recovery has to be a Finnish style knowledge economy.

hiorta

It seems that the reluctant 50% one-off tax can be deferred for the year in question, with the result the bank pays it, not the bankers.
I dont know if this is accurate, though.

maninasia

Overly negative, this idea is very practical and realistic. Perhaps most of the posters here would like to pay the deficit from increased taxes and cuts in public services instead?

I.S.T.

Here's an article from the UK Times which suggests that McWilliams idea could be a runner...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6955993.ece

City broker to relocate staff to avoid 'supertax'

Tullett Prebon, the specialist broker for investment banks, said it will help relocate any of its 700 London-based broking staff from Britain who want to avoid the Goverment's controversial new "supertax" on bank bonuses.

The move by such a well-known institution and headed by leading City figure, Terry Smith, will add to growing fears that the new tax will spark an exodus of banking jobs from the City to other financial centres after Alistair Darling announced in last week's Pre-Budget Report that bankers' awards over £25,000 will be taxed at 50 per cent.

Tullett Prebon said in a statement e-mailed to staff that many of its brokers had already expressed an interest in moving offshore and it would look into relocating those who expressed a wish to quit the UK "and will seek to facilitate, where possible and appropriate, relocation to the company’s other offices around the world which have more certain taxation regimes.”

Tullett Prebon has overseas offices in New Jersey, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo. It is understood some staff have expressed an interest in moving to Switzerland. The company has said it is up to the individuals to determine where they want to be located.

A spokesman for Tullett Prebon said: "It's clear that our main effort at the moment has to be to retain the brokers, because it is the brokers that generate our revenue."

Tullett's European headquarters are based in London, but because many of the broking staff are not British, they will not have strong domestic ties to the country.

The Government has said the tax will run at least until next April but has not confirmed whether it would be renewed in subsequent years.

Tullett Prebon, known as an "interdealer broker" because it acts as a middleman in derivatives trades between investment banks, is the world's second largest such broker after Icap.

The competition between rival houses for senior interdealer brokers is fierce. Tullett Prebon is currently engaged in a bitter legal battle with US rival BCG, accusing it of attempting to poach up to 90 London staff and 80 workers in New York. It said last month it was taking legal action against BGC in Britain, the US and Hong Kong.

The British Bankers Association has already warned that the supertax could damage the standing of the City as an international financial centre. Its chief executive, Angela Knight said last week: "Viewed from abroad, London may well look now like a significantly less attractive place to build a business."

Bob Diamond, president of Barclays, has also warned of the possible damage to the City the tax would cause.

TGPS

What's the world coming to when you find yourself agreeing with David McWilliams - paddywhackery's response to Tim Harford......

Anyway, he makes some excellent points and if it was down to taxation etc you'd be killed by the stampede of bankers out at the airport trying to get from there to the IFSC.

Unfortunately, Dublin for all its merits isn't even close to being able to offer the lifestyle the key people live and their underlings crave - I can attest to that first hand.

Secondly, even David will admit that these are very clever people - already they will have hatched schemes to legitimately avoid paying too much of this tax - there will be some token payments but you can be sure the vast bulk of bonuses will go on being paid with out the taxman getting so much as a sniff of any new money from them.

Yixian

This window of opportunity is only going to be around for... oh... 3 or 4 months probably? The second the UK has it's 2010 general election behind it there is no longer a political incentive for the UK to make life hard on bankers, and the second that happens, whether Labour or the Tories are in charge the UK government will be back on the side of financial services - the countries only real source of income.

If Dublin wants to benefit from this it's going to have to act fast..

I suggest emailing this David McW article to your local TD :P Beggars can't be choosers right now, and this is coming from a communist xD What Ireland needs most of all right now imo is momentum - a little good news, a little growth, some new ideas and some newcomers to the economy - people moving in rather than out - there's a lot of Celtic Tiger money sitting outside the island waiting to move back in when investors feel that the time is right to continue development in Ireland.

murphaph

I agree with those that are less than enthusiastic about this.

If they move here they move here but I wouldn't be begging them. Ireland needs to develop indigenous exporting industries. The government shouldn't waste its time chasing banks around the City. As already said anyway, the top bankers won't live just anywhere and Dublin is not London. Nothing like it really. It's a small city, not a metropolis. It'd be like asking these banker types to move to Glasgow tbh.

Yixian

murphaph wrote: »

I agree with those that are less than enthusiastic about this.

If they move here they move here but I wouldn't be begging them. Ireland needs to develop indigenous exporting industries. The government shouldn't waste its time chasing banks around the City. As already said anyway, the top bankers won't live just anywhere and Dublin is not London. Nothing like it really. It's a small city, not a metropolis. It'd be like asking these banker types to move to Glasgow tbh.

Not really, Ireland still has a good rep in the business world, it's just... broke xD

That's Ireland needs, to be free of it's debt, everything else about it is perfectly suited to growth and prosperity, with the exception of infrastructure which will improve with the Metro.

Dublin isn't a small city anymore, it's medium sized and there's lots of room for growth. Ireland needs to focus on selling Dublin as a major European city.

brianthebard

Yixian wrote: »

Dublin isn't a small city anymore, it's medium sized and there's lots of room for growth. Ireland needs to focus on selling Dublin as a major European city.

Well big cities like London and NY have populations of about 10million, Dublin has about 1 million, including half of kildare and louth. Compared to Manchester or other medium cities its small.

As for FF cunning, I'm not sure how much smarts you need to tell bankers you'll create a tax haven for them, and while the money would be a useful addition to the economy, I'm not sure it provides enough to kickstart the economy on its own, and I'm not sure that FF have the brains to build a full blown stimulus plan off the base of this refugee banker idea.

Yixian

brianthebard wrote: »

Well big cities like London and NY have populations of about 10million, Dublin has about 1 million, including half of kildare and louth. Compared to Manchester or other medium cities its small.

As for FF cunning, I'm not sure how much smarts you need to tell bankers you'll create a tax haven for them, and while the money would be a useful addition to the economy, I'm not sure it provides enough to kickstart the economy on its own, and I'm not sure that FF have the brains to build a full blown stimulus plan off the base of this refugee banker idea.

Sure but it's not all about pop. size. Physically Dublin is large and it punches about it's weight economically, still. The population of Geneva is far far smaller than Dub.

But yeah, I don't know if FF are on the ball enough to take advantage of this, I seriously hope so... They seem to be finally maturing though.

murphaph

Yixian wrote: »

Not really, Ireland still has a good rep in the business world, it's just... broke xD

That's Ireland needs, to be free of it's debt, everything else about it is perfectly suited to growth and prosperity, with the exception of infrastructure which will improve with the Metro.

Dublin isn't a small city anymore, it's medium sized and there's lots of room for growth. Ireland needs to focus on selling Dublin as a major European city.

But it's not a major European city in reality. Irish bullsh!t only goes so far. These banker types won't be fooled into giving up the cultural aspects offered by the likes of London for Dublin. We may pick up some crumbs from the London table but shouldn't preoccupy ourselves chasing them.

Dublin really is a lot like Glasgow except Glasgow actually has an underground. Can you see these banker sorts leaving Chelsea and moving to Glasgow? London offers something more than jobs, hence why millions live there and put up with extortionate prices. If ordinary workers put up with London prices just for the privilige of living there, then so will top paid banker types.

Rebelheart

Yixian wrote: »

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/12/13/lets-grab-this-golden-chance



We all hate bankers but with regulation, maybe capitalising on Britains losses could be the shot in the ass Ireland needs to get a head start out of recession?

That was the most myopic, most mé féiner idea David McWilliams has ever had. It can be summed up thus: while the Brits are (belatedly) clamping down on the obscene bonuses in the finance industry for the wider good of social justice, little Paddy will get in there and undercut them and keep standards low for much longer. Well done, David! Just how long does he think it will take before the same problems in the financial industry are repeated once again by the same get-rich-quick bankers who can only see as far as this year's bonus and distorting the books in order to increase their bonuses? It's so obtuse it defies belief that McWilliams has proposed it.

Did McWilliams ever think that little Paddy will be the victim of similar acts in the future by equally classless nouveau riche upstarts? A short history lesson: Dell left thousands of people unemployed in the US and came to Ireland when Ireland raced to the bottom. Now Poland has raced to the bottom and there are thousands of Irish unemployed. Do people like McWilliams learn anything?

Oh, and I doubt it very much that Brian Lenihan would be interested in talking to somebody like David McWilliams, a guy who publicly betrayed a trust placed in him. No honour there.

Shatner

Oh, and I doubt it very much that Brian Lenihan would be interested in talking to somebody like David McWilliams, a guy who publicly betrayed a trust placed in him. No honour there.

The garlic?

meep

Rebelheart wrote: »

Oh, and I doubt it very much that Brian Lenihan would be interested in talking to somebody like David McWilliams, a guy who publicly betrayed a trust placed in him. No honour there.

Interested in that last bit. Not familiar with that story. Got a link or a short explanation?

Shatner

meep wrote: »

Interested in that last bit. Not familiar with that story. Got a link or a short explanation?

http://www.independent.ie/entertainment/books/david-mcwilliams-the-night-lenihan-banged-on-my-front-door-1930001.html

Yixian

murphaph wrote: »

But it's not a major European city in reality. Irish bullsh!t only goes so far. These banker types won't be fooled into giving up the cultural aspects offered by the likes of London for Dublin. We may pick up some crumbs from the London table but shouldn't preoccupy ourselves chasing them.

Dublin really is a lot like Glasgow except Glasgow actually has an underground. Can you see these banker sorts leaving Chelsea and moving to Glasgow? London offers something more than jobs, hence why millions live there and put up with extortionate prices. If ordinary workers put up with London prices just for the privilige of living there, then so will top paid banker types.

You overrate both London and the tastes of these bankers xD

Take it from someone who spends a hell of a lot of time in London, Dublin isn't that far behind culturally, and most of these big bankers would be happy with Dublins top restaurants, theatres and new developments.

I mean look at Dubai, there's nothing at all to do in Dubai and they flocked there in droves.

Shatner

Yixian wrote: »

You overrate both London and the tastes of these bankers xD

Take it from someone who spends a hell of a lot of time in London, Dublin isn't that far behind culturally, and most of these big bankers would be happy with Dublins top restaurants, theatres and new developments.

I mean look at Dubai, there's nothing at all to do in Dubai and they flocked there in droves.

This is great news for champagne importers.

Daithinski

Yixian wrote: »

You overrate both London and the tastes of these bankers xD

Take it from someone who spends a hell of a lot of time in London, Dublin isn't that far behind culturally, and most of these big bankers would be happy with Dublins top restaurants, theaters and new developments.

I mean look at Dubai, there's nothing at all to do in Dubai and they flocked there in droves.

These banks /major company HQ's need all sorts of specialised service providers. That is why they tend to flock to certain international cities such as Paris/Tokyo and London. These probably don't exist in Ireland at the required level.

The execs who work there also have certain requirements to which I think the poster (TGPS) was referring too. Shops / amenities / schools and so on.

Dirk Gently

We should be encouraging our own small - medium businesses and growing a sustainable economy and not be reliant on companies with no ties who can relocate at the drop of a hat. By right we and in fact every country should be taxing the hilt out of the bonuses but in reality there will always be somewhere to go for these companies.

Bankers will always take risks and make huge sums, banks will always be bailed out by tax payers and countries will always undercut each other to lure the scum bags back with the promise of more excessive profits to be made. Short of world wide regulation nothing will ever change. I suppose that's as good an argument to say sure why not us then, seen as someone else will lure them in anyway.

murphaph

Yixian wrote: »

You overrate both London and the tastes of these bankers xD

Take it from someone who spends a hell of a lot of time in London, Dublin isn't that far behind culturally, and most of these big bankers would be happy with Dublins top restaurants, theatres and new developments.

I mean look at Dubai, there's nothing at all to do in Dubai and they flocked there in droves.

I also know London quite well and I have to disagree. Dublin has no equivalent of the West End, no SoHo, no big football clubs for those who like a bit, no Eurostar to Paris. London has an endless list of top restaurants and new ones always springing up, tonnes more museums and a whole host of international schools of every flavour for their snotty kids, as well as key decision makers and other big businessmen on your doorstep: contacts are everything (in German it's called Vitamin B, Beziehungen=contacts) in business. Comparing Dublin to London as a world city is futile, it just isn't. Berlin is 3 or 4 times the size of Dublin and I wouldn't for a second put Berlin in the same league of world cities as London. London has a long history of it and a long history of being the centre of a great empire. The empire is long gone but that legacy of being the "centre of the world" lives on in many ways in London.

Dubai at least offers nice weather.

Yixian

murphaph wrote: »

I also know London quite well and I have to disagree. Dublin has no equivalent of the West End, no SoHo, no big football clubs for those who like a bit, no Eurostar to Paris. London has an endless list of top restaurants and new ones always springing up, tonnes more museums and a whole host of international schools of every flavour for their snotty kids, as well as key decision makers and other big businessmen on your doorstep: contacts are everything (in German it's called Vitamin B, Beziehungen=contacts) in business. Comparing Dublin to London as a world city is futile, it just isn't. Berlin is 3 or 4 times the size of Dublin and I wouldn't for a second put Berlin in the same league of world cities as London. London has a long history of it and a long history of being the centre of a great empire. The empire is long gone but that legacy of being the "centre of the world" lives on in many ways in London.

Dubai at least offers nice weather.

West End is mostly trash, there are some nice theatres in London but look at the new Grand Canal Theatre. SoHo is a plus but Dublin has a reputation of being a fun and friendly place. Bankers don't spend a whole lot of time in museums I'm willing to be, but yes restaurants are big plus for London - although Dublin is doing to badly and is catching up a tad.

Financial infrastructure, that's a plus for London, but more favourable tax and plenty of space to move in a plus for Dublin.

Education decent in Dublin and Trinity is a world class uni.

Add in the future Metro, which will include a link to the airport, and you've got a damn nice city to move to.

As good as plenty of others that are currently growing.

johngalway

Quoting the article;

"we could do the same again"

Why the hell would we want to?

More "new money" tossers, more politicians stuck up their rear ends.

After the revolution things will be different, not better, just different.

We should start encouraging home grown business. Relying on multinationals is good and well until Poland or Outer Mongolia decide to reduce their corporate tax to -5% and we're back to square one with a bang.

Daithinski

Yixian wrote: »

Trinity is a world class uni.

Trinity Ranks 169 in the world.

It barely makes it into the top 50 in Europe. (#49)

In contrast, London has 3 out of 4 of Europe's top 4 universities within commuting distance.

Yixian wrote: »

As good as plenty of others that are currently growing.

Depends on which ones you compare them to!

murphaph

Yixian wrote: »

Add in the future Metro, which will include a link to the airport, and you've got a damn nice city to move to

The future metro will be the link to the airport. The "metro" will (if built) consist of one line to Swords. Ok, we have to start somewhere (in that regard of course the Interconnector is a much more important project, but I digress) but comparing an unbuilt single line of a metro network to the London Underground and surface rail etc. all integrated under the TfL brand is folly. Dublin transport is a big huge FAIL and will take many years to get right. This bank could have relocated twice by the time Dublin is a truly attractive place to live in this regard. I'm working at the window of my apartment. I can see a world class public transport system from here. I know Dublin doesn't have one and won't for many years.