Play offs

Colts15

Does anyone know if teams are level on wins at the end of the season, who is ahead of who in the conference? Is it head to head record, then divisional record, then conference record?

ArmCandyBaby

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Colts15

Great! Thanks! AFCs gunna be complicated!

ArmCandyBaby

Here's a good blog that crunches some numbers and gives you some perspective where each team stands at the moment. It hasn't been updated yet to account for this weeks scores though.

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

cooker3

What does Strength of victory mean?
Is it just points difference overall for the season?

Black Swan

"Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten."

Examples:
"If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker."

Source: http://football.about.com/cs/football101/g/gl_strengthofvi.htm

Morrisseeee

Has there ever been a more messy playoff picture, there's a fair few messy WHAT IF's in there !!!!!!!!! :eek:

If the season ended TODAY (After Week 15):
AFC:
1. Indy (14-0, clinched everything)
2. San Diego (11-3, clinched AFC West)
3. New England (9-5, first in the AFC East)
4. Cincinnati (9-5, first in the AFC North)
5. Baltimore (8-6, higher seeded WC team)
6. Denver (8-6, lower seeded WC team).

In the hunt (yikes):
7.Jacksonville(7-7)
8. Miami (7-7)
9. NYJ (7-7)
10.Pittsburgh (7-7)
11. Tennessee (7-7)
12. Houston (7-7)

davyjose

It's mad to think 11-5 Patriots failed to make it last year. 9-7 might do it this season.

ReacherCreature

Last year was horribly messy too. Same each year I suppose. Teams are dipping in and out of the playoff race, confusing.

x in the city

Im pretty a novice NFL fan, but I do like the giants...

since like the 80s no idea why...

anyway, i watched them maul the redskins and was wondering if they could get into the playoffs

after looking at the link I was like wtf

could someone translate it into English...

davyjose

x in the city wrote: »

Im pretty a novice NFL fan, but I do like the giants...

since like the 80s no idea why...

anyway, i watched them maul the redskins and was wondering if they could get into the playoffs

after looking at the link I was like wtf

could someone translate it into English...

Basically they need to win their remaining games and hope the Cowboys or Greenbay drop a game. I'm not sure exactly how it'll work if they finish tied with the Packers, but they'll definitely go through if they finish tied with Dallas (assuming they win both games.)

Edit: actually if the tie with Green Bay it gets VERY complicated, from what I can make out, but I think the Packers will edge it. Basically, Hope for a Dallas loss.

cooker3

davyjose wrote: »

Basically they need to win their remaining games and hope the Cowboys or Greenbay drop a game. I'm not sure exactly how it'll work if they finish tied with the Packers, but they'll definitely go through if they finish tied with Dallas (assuming they win both games.)

Edit: actually if the tie with Green Bay it gets VERY complicated, from what I can make out, but I think the Packers will edge it. Basically, Hope for a Dallas loss.

I did some rough calculations and figured the giants would probably make it. We haven't faced each other this season, not played 4 common opponents and our conference record would be the same so it comes down to strength of victory which as Blue_Lagoon rather handily pointed out is strength of record between teams The Pack and Giants beat. I think the giants shade it and also it would increase for them because they would had beaten Minnesota.

Of course there is no definite number until the end of the season when everyones record is set and it sets up the rather intriguing idea that every game involving a team that either the Packers and Giants beat matters and could decide who goes through. Imagine trying to do the maths of this during week 17 :eek:

eagle eye

AFC wildcard picture is set to get a whole lot messier next week imo. Just have a look at the games that include the wild card hopefuls

Broncos 8-6 @ Eagles
Ravens 8-6 @ Steelers 7-7
Jaguars 7-7 @ Patriots
Dolphins 7-7 vs Houston 7-7
Titans 7-7 vs Chargers

I fancy the Eagles beat the Broncos, the Steelers beat the Ravens. That would mean 4 teams minimum on 8-7 going into the last week.
I'd love to see the Titans beat the Chargers. Chargers don't have anything to play for really, pretty much guaranteed the no.2 seed and cannot improve upon that.
I don't think the Titans can make it now with their conference record, but if they finish with a winning record it would be amazing after their start.

Morrisseeee

OK I nuckled down and gathered all the info together and worked out all the scenarios for 'my' team, the Broncos. Note: this is not for the faint hearted !!!!! :eek::D
/^^ not really, I cut & pasted it from another forum, but fair play to the poor sod who did sit down and work it all out !!!

IF the season ended today, and EVERY what if Scenario for the playoffs(through wk 15)
Bear with me, this is one LONG post...it splits over this post and the first reply, so check there for all the rest.

Let’s be clear on a few things…that loss really, really hurt us, however, we got VERY lucky in the fact that almost all other contending teams lost last week. We’re certainly still alive, but in a much worse position that we could’ve been. Had we beaten Oakland, we would’ve all but clinched (probably 1 loss away by 1 or 2 teams). But that’s in the past, and Weeks 16 and 17 are upcoming, so here’s EVERYTHING. If you want to know about a scenario not seen here, just let me know and I’ll see what I can do.

If the season ended TODAY (After Week 15):
AFC:
1. Indy (14-0, clinched everything)
2. San Diego (11-3, clinched AFC West)
3. New England (9-5, first in the AFC East)
4. Cincinnati (9-5, first in the AFC North)
5. Baltimore (8-6, higher seeded WC team)
6. Denver (8-6, lower seeded WC team).
In the hunt (yikes):
7.Jacksonville(7-7)
8. Miami (7-7)
9. NYJ (7-7)
10.Pittsburgh (7-7)
11. Tennessee (7-7)
12. Houston (7-7)
Explanations:
--I’ve never seen a more messy playoff picture this late in the season in my life
--San Diego clinches a first round bye with a win or New England loss
--Strength of victory puts New England over Cincy
--Baltimore beat us head-to-head, so they are the 5 seed, we’re the 6 seed.
--2 wins and we’re in

NFC:
1. New Orleans (13-1)
2. Minnesota (11-3)
3. Philly (10-4)
4. Arizona (9-5)
5. Green Bay (9-5)
6. Dallas (9-5)
In the hunt:
7. New York (7-6)
Post season match ups:
--Indy, San Diego, New Orleans and Minnesota have first round byes.
--DEN @ NE, BAL @ CIN, DAL @ PHI, GB @ ARI
--If we won, we would play Indianapolis in round two…something I actually would not mind, in fact, I’d prefer it over SD.
Remaining Schedules:
DEN: @ PHI, vs. KC
BAL: @ PIT, @OAK
JAC: @ NE, @CLE
MIA: vs HOU, vs PIT
NYJ: @ IND, vs CIN
PIT: vs BAL, @MIA
TEN: vs SD, @ SEA
HOU: @MIA, vs NE

--Philly will be tough, but I don’t think this team will fall to the Chiefs at home after what just happened
--Baltimore and Pittsburgh play each other, Miami and Pittsburgh play each other, Houston and Miami play each other, so at LEAST 2 of those teams will finish 8-8
--Looking at this: The Jets have the hardest schedule, as the Colts will still try to be undefeated in Week 16 and the Bengals are presumably playing for the third seed, unless they decide they’d rather be the fourth, but I doubt that will be the case since they can’t predict who will be the fifth
--After the Jets, the Steelers have the hardest path, followed by Houston, Miami, Tennessee
--The Jaguars and Broncos have the second and third easiest in my opinion, and the Ravens have the “easiest” although they do play the Raiders. The Raiders could, however, determine they hate us just enough to not try to beat Baltimore and give them a spot…unlikely, but definitely possible
--The Philly game was pushed back to 4:15, which will help us since it’s on the road. Those early east coast games are always more difficult for west coast teams, so we lucked out there. Still gonna be one hell of a challenging game though, the Eagles are playing very, very well right now.
--The way I see it: Baltimore 9-7, Pittsburgh 9-7, Denver 9-7, Jacksonville 8-8, Miami 8-8, Tennessee 8-8, Jets 7-9, Houston 7-9
--Now to the what-ifs….these are organized by Baltimore. All of Baltimore winning is first, then Baltimore splitting, then Baltimore losing out.
What if scenarios:

First--Denver CLINCHES a spot this week if Baltimore wins, Denver wins and Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets all lose. Definitely possible.
If Denver wins out and BAL wins out:
We will be the 6th seed, as Baltimore beat us head to head
If Denver wins out and BAL loses one game:
We will be the fifth seed, the sixth would depend on everything else…regardless, if we win out, we are in the playoffs

If Denver loses to PHI and beats KC
--Houston and Tennessee are eliminated because of their conference record
AND BAL wins out, Jax splits, MIA splits, NYJ splits, PIT splits
--Alright, this is predictable scenario #1. Baltimore winning out regardless of anything else happening assures them the #5 seed. Here, all of the other contenders would split and finish 8-8, while we would be 9-7. RESULT: SIXTH SEED
AND BAL wins out, JAX wins out, MIA wins out, NYJ wins out,
Much less predictable here, but I’m following the order, so Baltimore is guaranteed the #5 seed at 10-6, and the tiebreaker would be between us, Jax and Mia after the Jets are eliminated through divisional tiebreaker (2-4 record to MIA’s 4-2). No sweeps apply here, but conference record goes to Jacksonville at 8-4 and they’d be the #6 seed.
AND BAL wins outs, MIA wins OUT, NYJ Win out
Eliminated Jacksonville who would finish at 8-8…It comes down to Miami and us, as BAL is the #5 seed. Jets are eliminated through division tiebreaker, and so between Denver and Miami: I elaborated on this in a later scenario, since I did this out of order, but common opponents are tied, and strength of victory is VERY close…too close to call now, it’ll depend on the teams we beat finish up. If it ended right now though, we would win…barely.
Result = Too close to call, as of now, the #6 seed
AND Bal wins out, NYJ win out:
Eliminated all non 9-7 teams which just leaves us and the Jets…and common opponents, which I broke down in a later scenario, favor the Jets, so they would get the #6 seed.
AND BAL splits, JAX splits, MIA splits, NYJ splits, PIT wins out
--This one isn’t as fun for us, although I am not 100% sure on the end ruling. Of the remaining contenders Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets are 8-8, while Baltimore, Pittsburgh and us are all 9-7. There’s two ways to interpret the tie breaker, and I don’t work for the NFL and can’t give you the correct interpretation. It says in the tiebreaking procedures to “apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.”.
Now, does this mean you eliminate the second divisional player only for the first seed and they’re eligible for the second, or does it mean you eliminate the second divisional team and it comes down to the remaining teams for both spots.
If it’s the first, Baltimore and PIT get the two spots. If it’s the second, Baltimore is the five seed and we are the sixth seed.

AND BAL splits, JAX splits, MIA wins out, NYJ splits, PIT splits
--Eliminate Jacksonville, the Jets and Pittsburgh
This one is pretty fun actually…Baltimore’s head to head tiebreaker with us is gone in this scenario, because they didn’t also beat Miami. We would all be 7-5 in conference, which is the next step. So the next step is common games…which teams did all three teams play (there must be 4)? Pittsburgh, New England, Indy and San Diego, so yes, this step will work. Assuming the Baltimore split means that they lost to Pittsburgh and beat Oakland…the records are as follows. Denver 2-3, Baltimore 2-3 and Miami 2-3. Wow! Now it all comes down to strength of victory…pretty crazy. Here’s how that plays out assuming the Chiefs lose out, Cleveland loses out, Oakland splits and Houston loses out…which are all most likely to happen. All others teams thrown in are going to be judged by their current record, hopefully there’s enough of a difference that it won’t have to go into further detail. Records are accurate within 2 games…lots of numbers…
Denver’s is 60-72, Baltimore’s is 48-88, Miami’s is 57-75….if the Giants win tonight ours would be 61-72.
So while this may be a game or two off, it DOES look like based off this scenario, we would be the #5 seed. Don’t fret though, even if Miami beat us out, our SOV is still better than Baltimore, and it does not revert back to the beginning, this step would be the deciding factor. So Baltimore would miss the playoffs in this situation. We want this. Baltimore, Denver and Miami tied….RESULT = PLAYOFFS, but close.

---

Yes, these go on and on….
AND BAL Splits, PIT wins out, JAX wins out, Miami and the Jets split
Eliminate the Jets and Dolphins at 8-8….it goes down to a 4 way tiebreaker, and PIT is eliminated first because of the divisional record. Whether this means for the #5 and #6 seeds or just the #5, I’m not sure. But for the #5 seed it’d be between Baltimore, Jacksonville and us. In this scenario, Jacksonville has the better conference record at 8-4, and only because Baltimore and Denver would be TIED here, it reverts back to step 1 (with Pittsburgh? I don’t know…to be honest, I don’t think so, I think they’d be eliminated). Since we were tied and it reverts back to step 1…Baltimore beat us head to head, so they’d be the #6 seed.
RESULT= NO PLAYOFFS
AND BAL Splits, PIT wins out JAX wins out, MIAMI wins out, Jets Win out
Why not get a little complicated, right? A 6 way tie at 9-7 is not going to be fun for me to figure out, but let’s go for it. First things first, goodbye Pittsburgh because they lose the divisional race to Baltimore (because of Division record, in case anyone was curious). Secondly, goodbye NYJ as they lose the division race to Miami. So that takes care of 1/3 of those teams. Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Miami are left. Jacksonville would have the best conference record and get the 5 seed, and then it comes down to Denver Baltimore and Miami again…based off my projections, Baltimore is clearly out and it comes down to us vs. Miami. It really is too close to call though, as of right now, we’d have the edge, but all that means is ROOT FOR ALL THE TEAMS THAT WE BEAT.
Result = TOO SOON TO TELL, but as of now, 6th seed.
AND BAL SPLITS, PIT wins out, JAX wins out, Miami Splits, Jets win out
Sticking with the complicated stuff, rule Miami out here and Keep 5 teams in at 9-7. Eliminate the Steelers because of the division, and give Jacksonville #5 because of the conference record. Comes down to common games first between us three teams…there are enough common games: Cincy, Indy, Oakland and New England.
Denver was 3-2 in these games, while Baltimore was 1-5 and the Jets, unfortunately, were 4-1. They would get the 6th spot…I know, the Jets making it over us would be absolutely terrible, but they’d have to earn it beating two great teams in 2 weeks.
Result = NO PLAYOFFS
That covers the Baltimore splitting scenarios….
AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax Wins out, Miami wins out, Jets win out
Baltimore will be eliminated in all these scenarios, except for the ones where all of these guys lose out, except PIT splits, so we won’t worry about that yet. But in this scenario Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Miami and the Jets are all tied with us at 9-7. Eliminate the Jets through the divisional tiebreaker. Then wish the Steelers a good night with their conference record, While Jacksonville gets the #5 spot through conference record. Miami and Denver would again duke it out through SOV, which is anyone’s game.
Result= Too soon to tell
And BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax wins out, Miami Splits, Jets win out
Here it comes down to common opponents between us and the Jets, as Jacksonville gets the #5 seed, and the Jets have us beat through common opponents, so they would get the #6 seed
AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, Jax Wins out, Miami and the Jets split
Jacksonville is the #5, we’re the #6 as Pitt is eliminated through conference record.
AND BAL loses out, PIT wins out, all the rest split:
We would be #6, Pit #5 because of our head to head loss.
AND BAL loses out, all of them split:
We’re the #5 seed, who cares after that…
NOTE:
--The Texans and Titans can both make the playoffs, however, neither team would make it over us if we were 9-7 in any scenario, so I did not include them in this.
--Also, I’m not even going to get into if we finish 8-8, because in that case, we’d need a lot to happen. DEFINITELY possible, but we’d need a lot to happen.
--One last thing…if we only win 1 of these last 2 games, it is WAY more important that it’s the KC game. Forget strength of victory, our conference record would eliminate us from most tiebreakers first…winning in Philly only helps if we can win out, or if enough teams finish 8-8 that we squeak in, which isn’t likely. Not to say we shouldn’t root for us to beat Philly…I’m very hopeful we beat KC, so a win in Philly could clinch our spot, practically.
--Next week is obviously the last week of this, let’s hope the scenarios are short and sweet with us at 9-7 and enough of the guys right behind us losing.
WHO TO ROOT FOR:
We really have to root hard all across the board this week…
--We’re rooting for the following: San Diego (Yes, San Diego) on Christmas, Oakland (for SOV purposes), Houston (over Miami),Baltimore (over PITT), the Giants over Carolina (for SOV), New England over Jax, New Orleans over tampa (SOV), DENVER (obviously), INDY over the Jets.
In order of importance:
1) DENVER: Clearly a big game, we win this we could win out and secure our spot in the playoffs as the #5 or 6 seed
2) New England: Helps our SOV out, but also ruins Jacksonville’s chances, and JAX is our biggest threat other than Baltimore because of the Head to Head
3) Baltimore: Simply to eliminate Pitt from the hunt
4) INDY over the Jets: The Jets can beat us in tiebreakers if they finish ahead of the Dolphins, so it is important they lsoe
5) Houston: Though Houston is technically still a threat, they are far less a threat than Miami.
6) Giants: This one helps us only for SOV
7) Oakland: See above
8) San Diego: Beats Tennessee which helps us, although only if we lose out, so it shouldn’t matter that much since losing out screws us over anyway. And they’re still San Diego. But I sure as hell don’t want to play them in the first round, so a win here gives them the bye for sure.
9) New Orleans: Just for the SOV, no big deal here. But if you’re going to root for someone, root for them.
So there you have it, 9 of these games have a big impact on us. Root hard all week!

In terms of our current draft position: The Bears currently have what would be the 9th pick in the draft, and depending on how things go, that can move all the way up to most likely the highest being 6th, and the lowest being around 16th or so. If it stays where it is though and we get a top 10 draft pick, then DAMN, that worked out well.
And that’s all for this week…hopefully we pulled off the upset next week and are in good shape for week 17, but if not…these scenarios already tell you what you need to know.

DonkeyPokerTour

The AFC playoff picture is so boring, the NFC is where its at, just 3 teams and a couple of simple situations. Note: The team listed first is 5th seed, team listed 2nd is 6th seed.

Assumption 1: Giants Win Out
1. Packers Win Out, Cowboys Win Out. Packers & Cowboys Qualify.
2. Packers Win Out, Cowboys Split. Packers & Giants Qualify.
3. Packers Win Out, Cowboys Lose Both. Packers & Giants Qualify.
4. Packers Split, Cowboys Win Out. Cowboys & Giants Qualify*
5. Packers Split, Cowboys Split. Packers & Giants Qualify.
6. Packers Split, Cowboys Lose Both. Packers & Giants Qualify.
7. Packers Lose Both, Cowboys Win Out. Cowboys & Giants Qualify.
8. Packers Lose Both, Cowboys Split. Giants & Cowboys Qualify
9. Packers Lose Both, Cowboys Lose Both, Giants & Packers Qualify**

*Giants Qualify as in the 4 common games (Vikings, Cowboys, Arizona, Tampa Bay) they have the Giants are 3-1 (currently 2-1 with vikings to come), where as the Packers are 1-2 with Cardinals to come. That loss to tampa bay could really hurt the Packers.
** Packers edge out the cowboys due to beating Dallas head to head.

Assumption 2: Giants Split
1. Packers Win Out, Cowboys Win Out. Packers & Cowboys Qualify.
2. Packers Win Out, Cowboys Split. Packers & Cowboys Qualify..
3. Packers Win Out, Cowboys Lose Both. Packers & Giants Qualify.
4. Packers Split, Cowboys Win Out. Packers & Cowboys Qualify.
5. Packers Split, Cowboys Split. Packers & Cowboys Qualify.
6. Packers Split, Cowboys Lose Both. Packers & Giants Qualify.
7. Packers Lose Both, Cowboys Win Out. Cowboys & Giants Qualify.
8. Packers Lose Both, Cowboys Split. Cowboys & Giants Qualify
9. Packers Lose Both, Cowboys Lose Both, Giants & Packers Qualify*

*Giants & Packers Qualify as Giants & Packers hold the head to head over the Cowboys, and Giants are 5th seed due to the 4 game split as described above.

Assumption 3: Giants Lose Both
1-9 Packers & Cowboys Qualify, if equal records Packers are 5th seed due to Head to Head record.

Also note that Philidelphia's results will not have an impact on whether the giants qualify or not (well it will due to them playing the cowboys), but it could mean if Phili lose their last two and Dallas win their last two then Dallas wins division and phili will be a wildcard. If its phili are in the wildcards they will be 5th seed due to head to head vs giants and conference results vs Packers. I hope that makes sense

*I hope to god all thats right, I just went through NFL.com and did my best to work it all out*

Regards
Ian

eagle eye

So its boring to have more teams in the picture for a wildcard spot?

cooker3

DonkeyPokerTour wrote: »

*Giants Qualify as in the 4 common games (Vikings, Cowboys, Arizona, Tampa Bay) they have the Giants are 3-1 (currently 2-1 with vikings to come), where as the Packers are 1-2 with Cardinals to come. That loss to tampa bay could really hurt the Packers.

Oh wow. I totally missed that. Big oversight on my part. That's pretty meh.

DonkeyPokerTour

eagle eye wrote: »

So its boring to have more teams in the picture for a wildcard spot?

Eagle, I hope Santa brings you a sarcasm detector for Christmas :):D

eagle eye

DonkeyPokerTour wrote: »

Eagle, I hope Santa brings you a sarcasm detector for Christmas :):D

I had a feeling you were joking but you didn't have a smiley after it, so wasn't sure.