Recession is over - stop beating the beards

ardmacha

theres lies, theres damned lies and then theres statistics

This forum is mostly about the former and has very little use of the latter.

Count Dooku

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Amhran Nua wrote: »

So what will replace construction? And please don't say construction.

Construction.

Did I miss something?:eek:
Why do we need more house when we don’t know what to do with already built.
Natural demand is about 30,000 houses per year. Developers were building 90,000 of them each year and were filling them by Eastern European immigrants, which came here to build houses. Because it cannot work forever, we have what we have. Most of immigrants, who lost jobs, stay here only due good welfare benefits. As soon as economy in other countries will start to recover, they will start to move into other places and free more houses and apartments in addition to 100,000 already empty. It means that Ireland has housing stock supply for 10-15 years.
I don’t see any place for construction in visible future.

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Its almost the 2010s now, things have changed somewhat since the 1990s. Check out a graph from 2000 to 2009 for somewhat more current economic data. Also your focus on MNCs is not an accurate assessment of economic growth as they repatriate their profits.

Gee, Economics 101. Your knowledge knows no end...

You gotta love how you assume that I don't know how a basic economic model is broken down...

I presume that you have other logical explanation why Ireland with export in Q2/09 equal to 36,110 and import at the same period equal to 28,101 still had negative balance with rest of world about 8,460 Bn.
Source - CSO - IMF Summary Data Page For Ireland

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

Did I miss something?:eek:

Yes. The sarcasm. Apparently it's the lowest form of wit, according to some druids, no doubt.

Count Dooku wrote: »

I presume that you have other logical explanation why Ireland with export in Q2/09 equal to 36,110 and import at the same period equal to 28,101 still had negative balance with rest of world about 8,460 Bn.
Source - CSO - IMF Summary Data Page For Ireland

It seems that people missing the point is compounding now.

ragg

Why do we need more house when we don’t know what to do with already built

Put simply we have a half built capitol city - we have to completely redevelop the docks, we have massive public infrastructure projects still to come on stream. We are also massively underpopulated country as a whole.
This country has a large construction sector, things just readjusted slightly, but i don't think its finished.

IMO, the property orgy hasn't finished either - people are just having a rest before switching partners again

nesf

Count Dooku wrote: »

I presume that you have other logical explanation why Ireland with export in Q2/09 equal to 36,110 and import at the same period equal to 28,101 still had negative balance with rest of world about 8,460 Bn.
Source - CSO - IMF Summary Data Page For Ireland

a) They pay taxes on those profits.

b) They generally support an array of "supporting industries" from actual suppliers to consumption based on wages generated.

c) They employ a fair chunk of people on good wages and contribute a lot to the Exchequer in payroll taxes.


Yes, they repatriate a load of profits abroad, but we do get a nice chunk of out of revenue before this happens for giving them a place to set up.

Daithinski

Flamed Diving wrote: »

All I want is for people to stop regurgitating what they read in the paper. Nothing wrong with it, as long as you combine it with some data/sources,

Hello? This is an online forum not a scholarly article.You want people to reference all their facts? Maybe you also want someone to grade each post?

Most people don't have the time/inclination to provide references for every opinion they post on this site, maybe you do, but I think it's unrealistic to expect it from others.

nesf

SkepticOne wrote: »

I think my point to ei.sdraob applies here. If the definition of recession based on contraction of real GDP ceases to have much meaning then we need to come up with new definitions. There's no single official definition to start with so we are free to do this.

Well.

At its most basic: Economic growth = making more stuff and selling it.

Money is just the scorekeeper, it's not really that important in the transaction per se. We adjust growth by inflation/deflation so that there doesn't appear to be growth or decline when the amount produced remains constant.


A simple example. Two Countries A & B produce 100 units.

In Year 1, one unit = €1

So:
GDP Country A = 100 x 1 = €100
GDP Country B = 100 x 1 = €100

In Year 2 we have 10% inflation in country A and 10% deflation in country B. Both countries only produce 100 units again.

GDP Country A = 100 x 1.1 = €110
GDP Country B = 100 x 0.9 = €90


Now, does it make any sense not to adjust both country's GDP by inflation to get a real picture of good produced in each country or would you actually argue that real GDP declined in Country B and increased in Country A in terms of production given that's what we're really interested in?

Flamed Diving

Daithinski wrote: »

Hello? This is an online forum not a scholarly article.You want people to reference all their facts? Maybe you also want someone to grade each post?

Most people don't have the time/inclination to provide references for every opinion they post on this site, maybe you do, but I think it's unrealistic to expect it from others.

Don't post unsourced opinions as facts, then.

Simple.

nesf

Daithinski wrote: »

Hello? This is an online forum not a scholarly article.You want people to reference all their facts? Maybe you also want someone to grade each post?

Most people don't have the time/inclination to provide references for every opinion they post on this site, maybe you do, but I think it's unrealistic to expect it from others.

Sure but people need to realise they're posting opinion not fact and not misrepresent it as such! No one is expecting every post to be referenced but on this forum if you make an assertion you are required to be able to back it up with something more than "it's just my opinion" if it's something where evidence or theory exists.

Count Dooku

nesf wrote: »

a) They pay taxes on those profits.

b) They generally support an array of "supporting industries" from actual suppliers to consumption based on wages generated.

c) They employ a fair chunk of people on good wages and contribute a lot to the Exchequer in payroll taxes.


Yes, they repatriate a load of profits abroad, but we do get a nice chunk of out of revenue before this happens for giving them a place to set up.

Not realy much - 2.9bn in Corporate Tax receipts, €6.7bn is on Payroll, €2.5bn is on Irish Materials and €6.5bn is on Irish Services. – €Total 18.6Bn.
Source
This is fixed rent, even not enough to pay PS payroll bill
but MNC's create illusion of wealthy country, while Ireland even not in first ten within EU

You need to remember - 90% of export produced by foreign owned companies, the rest of country is only spending money, paid by MNC's as rent or borrowed from abroad

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

while Ireland even not in first ten within EU

By what measure?

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

Not realy much - 2.9bn in Corporate Tax receipts, €6.7bn is on Payroll, €2.5bn is on Irish Materials and €6.5bn is on Irish Services. – €Total 18.6Bn.

Which is approx 12% of our GNP. Yeah, really not much at all...

Count Dooku wrote: »

Source
This is fixed rent, even not enough to pay PS payroll bill

Still, it is 12% of GNP. Small change, I suppose...

Count Dooku wrote: »

You need to remember - 90% of export produced by foreign owned companies, the rest of country is only spending money, paid by MNC's as rent or borrowed from abroad

Statements like this are just stupid, and don't reflect very well on you.

nesf

Count Dooku wrote: »

Not realy much - 2.9bn in Corporate Tax receipts, €6.7bn is on Payroll, €2.5bn is on Irish Materials and €6.5bn is on Irish Services. – €Total 18.6Bn.
Source
This is fixed rent, even not enough to pay PS payroll bill
but MNC's create illusion of wealthy country, while Ireland even not in first ten within EU

You need to remember - 90% of export produced by foreign owned companies, the rest of country is only spending money, paid by MNC's as rent or borrowed from abroad

18 billion is small?!?!

Also, an important detail that 2.9bn is 40% of total tax take of €5.066bn in terms of Corp tax! I agreed on the overstatement of wealth that our GDP/head gives but this is a rather large chunk of our economy ya know.

Count Dooku

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Statements like this are just stupid, and don't reflect very well on you.

You missing one import point – Ireland import practically everything, except some food.
It means that 45 Bn of consumer imports has to be paid. We know that MNC’s are paying 19Bn as rent from their profits. Plus 5 Bn of genuine Irish export. Still it is only 25Bn. Somehow country has pay 20 Bn. Before it has been paid through borrowed money for construction industry. Construction is dead, now government itself has to borrow, because nobody will lend to Irish banks anymore.
Country has two choices –
reduce consumption of plasma TV’s, cars, china toys etc
or
start to export more

Everything else related to GDP and consumer market is irrelevant, if country is not self sufficient, it has to balance consumption with incomes from export

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

You missing one import point – Ireland import practically everything, except some food.
It means that 45 Bn of consumer imports has to be paid. We know that MNC’s are paying 19Bn as rent from their profits. Plus 5 Bn of genuine Irish export. Still it is only 25Bn. Somehow country has pay 20 Bn. Before it has been paid through borrowed money for construction industry. Construction is dead, now government itself has to borrow, because nobody will lend to Irish banks anymore.
Country has two choices –
reduce consumption of plasma TV’s, cars, china toys etc
or
start to export more

Everything else related to GDP and consumer market is irrelevant, if country is not self sufficient, it has to balance consumption with incomes from export

Dooky, I have spent much of my adult life studying economic science. There is no need to remind me of what I learned as a 1st year undergraduate, thanks. If you had bothered to read your own links, you would notice that imports are falling 3.71 times faster than exports. Given this new budget, and the likelihood of a further drop in imports next year, I would not be too worried about this BOP.

nesf

Count Dooku wrote: »

Everything else related to GDP and consumer market is irrelevant, if country is not self sufficient, it has to balance consumption with incomes from export

Why? And over what timescale must they balance?

Count Dooku

nesf wrote: »

Why? And over what timescale must they balance?

ASAP
Before most of incomes from export will not go to pay debts

Flamed Diving wrote: »

If you had bothered to read your own links, you would notice that imports are falling 3.71 times faster than exports. Given this new budget, and the likelihood of a further drop in imports next year, I would not be too worried about this BOP.

8 Bn per year is not fast enough

We need at least 15 Bn next year

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

I presume that you have other logical explanation why Ireland with export in Q2/09 equal to 36,110 and import at the same period equal to 28,101 still had negative balance with rest of world about 8,460 Bn. {In otherwords a €8,460bn deficit}
Source - CSO - IMF Summary Data Page For Ireland

Count Dooku wrote: »

8 Bn per year is not fast enough

We need at least 15 Bn next year

Really? According to your figures above €8bn seems just about right.

Count Dooku

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Really? According to your figures above €8bn seems just about right.

8 bn has been achieved mostly due reducing car import
Not enough

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

8 bn has been achieved mostly due reducing car import
Not enough

Again, you are missing the point and arguing with a strawman. If you would like to continue the discussion with me, and not the strawman, let me know.

nesf

Count Dooku wrote: »

8 Bn per year is not fast enough

We need at least 15 Bn next year

Eh... What do you think this 8 Bn consists of?

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

but MNC's create illusion of wealthy country, while Ireland even not in first ten within EU

Still waiting on the source for this.

imme

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Don't post unsourced opinions as facts, then.

Simple.

are you in charge mon ami:rolleyes:
I think sources are good, I have asked for them before, but was rebuked by Scofflaw who said he wasn't here to 'hold my hand'.
I generally provide sources, it reasserts the point I feel.;)

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055763725&page=2

Flamed Diving

I am always in charge.

imme

Flamed Diving wrote: »

I am always in charge.

you'll be offering to make me sandwiches next.
enough of this chit chat.
This is a SERIOUS FORUM.:cool:

nesf

Get a room you two and make horrible union loving free market zealot mutant offspring or something.

imme

nesf wrote: »

Get a room you two and make horrible union loving free market zealot mutant offspring or something.

This is a SERIOUS FORUM.:cool:
*winks*
I need a drink

Count Dooku

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Still waiting on the source for this.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irish-second-richest-in-europe-1976551.html

When adjustments are made to get Ireland's national income, the country ranks just above the EU average, and probably not in the top 10; behind Britain but ahead of Italy.

Flamed Diving

Count Dooku wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irish-second-richest-in-europe-1976551.html

(Probably not in the top ten... were they too lazy to look?)

The Indo???

Have you not been reading a word I said in this thread???

I will make it nice and clear:

I WANT DATA SOURCES

nesf

Count Dooku wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irish-second-richest-in-europe-1976551.html

Yar! GNI rankings per capita adjusted for Nominal and PPP (i.e. with and without adjusting for cost of living differences, we obviously drop a few places when you take account of our high cost of living!): http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf (World Bank 2008 rankings) (We're 11th in the world and 13th in the world respectively for those who don't want to click)

No "probably below the UK" on per capita grounds we beat them by a few places which confuses me but there you go.