Cold Spell Discussion (18/12/09) (Cold, Ice and Snow now arriving)

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps by late next week we could get more widespread frontal snow if we become the battle ground between the cold air and warmer atlantic air.

yes but that presents us with the most likely scenario of one hr of snow foollowed by 2 hrs of rain and then ensuing milder conditions. Better than a kick in the hole i guess:pac:

darkman2

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Am i right in saying that this is not a very common scenario for Ireland i.e. to have a cold front pushing down from the artic into an already cold airmass at this time of year?

Is that why there is so much uncertainty, because weather forecasting is based a lot on previous experience 9which we have had little in recent years) as well as GFS/UKMO type assistance?

The first frontal snow in my location occured last Febuary for the first time since 2001. It is very rare to get frontal snow at sea level. Happened quite a bit when I was younger though. Preferably a warm front should push against a cold airmass. Tomorrow I don't think there is too much uncertainty at this stage. It is going to snow widely tomorrow evening - just a question of how much. That has always been very tricky to forcast.

Danno

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Am i right in saying that this is not a very common scenario for Ireland i.e. to have a cold front pushing down from the artic into an already cold airmass at this time of year?

Is that why there is so much uncertainty, because weather forecasting is based a lot on previous experience 9which we have had little in recent years) as well as GFS/UKMO type assistance?

spot on.

maquiladora

Hopefully not too much rain ahead of the snow tomorrow, or even better just a bit of sleet instead,as darkman was saying.

Im sure we will be flooded with reports here hail, rain or snow and the raintoday.co.uk servers will need extra cooling.

Until then, goodnight!

WolfeIRE

I remember it happened in 1994 or 1995. Around mid december. We got a dumping then. cannot remember any other occasion. What's your guesses, Dark, on xmas eve and xmas day?nn maquiladora

Danno

Hopefully one or the other will happen before the system arrives...

1 - The system gets delayed to hit until 9pm, clear skies ahead will allow temperatures to plummit, ensuring a frigid cold pool of air over us.

2 - Cloud ahead of the system spills far ahead, blocking the sunshine, preserving tonights cold air.

WolfeIRE

Danno wrote: »

Hopefully one or the other will happen before the system arrives...

1 - The system gets delayed to hit until 9pm, clear skies ahead will allow temperatures to plummit, ensuring a frigid cold pool of air over us.

2 - Cloud ahead of the system spills far ahead, blocking the sunshine, preserving tonights cold air.

would be preferable and a likely scenario for midlands and east in particular. Don't forget though that cloud cover itself may act as a stopper on temps dropping too much.

darkman2

UKMO charts for tomorrow. This is at 19:00

This should be snow at this stage




Heaviest in the North and East of the country



On to 01:00 Sunday morning

Clearing the South and Southeast





I won't be here tomorrow so all the best - hope it comes off. It looks good so far.

darkman2

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I remember it happened in 1994 or 1995. Around mid december. We got a dumping then. cannot remember any other occasion. What's your guesses, Dark, on xmas eve and xmas day?nn maquiladora

Not great TBH but it's still a long way out. Alot of uncertainty from Monday onward.

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

yes but that presents us with the most likely scenario of one hr of snow foollowed by 2 hrs of rain and then ensuing milder conditions. Better than a kick in the hole i guess:pac:

well, if the cold must say goodbye for now at least we would have the hour of heavy snow to cherish. ideally , as you suggest, the Atlantic system is beaten back and mike65 continues to frown:P

WolfeIRE

BTW, i notice ME's forecast of showers along north and west coast tonight is wrong up to now. It's north and east coast, as well as midlands.


Night fellas. Chat tomorrow.

Rougies

Can anyone else remember an event in about 1991/1992 (I'm just going on the fact that it definitely happened in my last two years of primary school) when it absolutely p1ssed rain for hours, then turned to sleet, then snow, and then the snow gobbled up all surface water and turned it into a slushy ice mixture, followed by at least 2 hours of the most amazing looking snowfall I've ever seen (flakes like A4 pages), leaving a good few inches on the ground?

I clearly remember looking at the big flakes melting in the puddles in the back garden and being so disappointed. A couple of hours later and it was a whiteout!

This question is relative to the upcoming event by the way

darkman2

Rougies wrote: »

Can anyone else remember an event in about 1991/1992 (I'm just going on the fact that it definitely happened in my last two years of primary school) when it absolutely p1ssed rain for hours, then turned to sleet, then snow, and then the snow gobbled up all surface water and turned it into a slushy ice mixture, followed by at least 2 hours of the most amazing looking snowfall I've ever seen (flakes like A4 pages), leaving a good few inches on the ground?

I clearly remember looking at the big flakes melting in the puddles in the back garden and being so disappointed. A couple of hours later and it was a whiteout!

This question is relative to the upcoming event by the way

I remember that - but that was a blizzard. Very doubtful we will see anything that bad tomorrow.;)

Rougies

darkman2 wrote: »

I remember that - but that was a blizzard. Very doubtful we will see anything that bad tomorrow.;)

Can you remember any more about that event? I can't remember what happened after that snowfall, or the time of year. My guess is it was a one day event as I can recall long snow events from when I was even younger!

RayM

Rougies wrote: »

Can you remember any more about that event? I can't remember what happened after that snowfall, or the time of year. My guess is it was a one day event as I can recall long snow events from when I was even younger!

I could be wrong, but I'm thinking January or February 1991. The event I'm thinking of happened late on a weekday afternoon, led to a very slippery, chaotic rush-hour, and then froze over later that night.

Pangea

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I remember it happened in 1994 or 1995. Around mid december. We got a dumping then.

Christmas eve 1995 to be exact What a white christmas.

Elmo5

Currently dry and -1 here. No frost, no snow, nothing!

mad DIY

Nothing to report in dublin either.

Looks like the midlands - Kildare, Laois, Offaly - are continuing to have snow showers through the night (or maybe it's WiFi interference on the radar ?)

joes girls

going to get up have a look out!


Flip its cold out there, but no snow:(

snaps

temperatures now rising here. gone from -2.8c to 1.1c now, more talk of rain now rather than snow here. Shame.

M.T. Cranium

This batch of arctic air is now modifying (rapidly near the west coast) but the next batch is going to arrive with a bang this evening -- that's where the snow potential lies. The 0600 report from Thorshavn in the Faeroes is -3, winds NNW gusting to 48 kts, and snowflurries. The front has just gone through there and will be approaching north Donegal around 4 pm. Everything ahead of it is modifying and yes, rain is more likely than snow until this front passes. Then snow is much more likely again. So hang in there, it will stay cold for several days once this front arrives.

Supercell

Very icy out this morning, was subzero for most of the night despite the breeze which means everything has frozen hard.
Dew point is sky rocketing, probably will go positive later meaning any precip even here is likely to be rain (or hail) later, when the colder air arrives again it will be a dry westerly. Oh well.

DOCARCH

Evelyn is just forecasting rain from that band with snow possibly at back edge.

Min

I wonder if high ground will just get snow.

I was in Kilkenny city yesterday afternoon, it was 2c, as I got home around 1pm and went higher up the hills to home the temperature eventually went to 0c.

5 miles in a straight line but 2 degrees in temperature difference due to altitude. Well that is what the car said...temperature wise.

Min

Rougies wrote: »

Can anyone else remember an event in about 1991/1992 (I'm just going on the fact that it definitely happened in my last two years of primary school) when it absolutely p1ssed rain for hours, then turned to sleet, then snow, and then the snow gobbled up all surface water and turned it into a slushy ice mixture, followed by at least 2 hours of the most amazing looking snowfall I've ever seen (flakes like A4 pages), leaving a good few inches on the ground?

I clearly remember looking at the big flakes melting in the puddles in the back garden and being so disappointed. A couple of hours later and it was a whiteout!

This question is relative to the upcoming event by the way

Yes it was around January 8th or 9th 1991, we were just back after the Christmas school holidays. That morning Met Eireann predicted rain, sleet and any snow would turn to rain. Like hell it did, school had to close, bus struggled, had to go to a friends house and then be rescued by tractor....

No proper warning from the Met people that day.....

dublincelt

Woke up to a covering of Snow in Carlow! Looking forward to my two year old waking up! Whats the chances of more snow here?:D

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This batch of arctic air is now modifying (rapidly near the west coast) but the next batch is going to arrive with a bang this evening -- that's where the snow potential lies. The 0600 report from Thorshavn in the Faeroes is -3, winds NNW gusting to 48 kts, and snowflurries. The front has just gone through there and will be approaching north Donegal around 4 pm. Everything ahead of it is modifying and yes, rain is more likely than snow until this front passes. Then snow is much more likely again. So hang in there, it will stay cold for several days once this front arrives.

couldn't ask for a better forecast. will there be a lot of shower activity with those westerly winds? we usually do well in cork from them.

200motels

This is an interesting chart for next Thursday, now I know it's a long way off and the way the charts have been chopping and changing lately it will probably change again.

200motels

Here's another one, looks very good.

draward

covering of snow in clara co kilkenny 1 cm