Ireland to pull out of the euro?

Highly Salami

Boston wrote: »

We export the most to the euro zone.

so having a weaker currency than them will be good for our economy!

Boston

Highly Salami wrote: »

so having a weaker currency than them will be good for our economy!

You realise import is another side of that equation.

Flamed Diving

Highly Salami wrote: »

so having a weaker currency than them will be good for our economy!

The vast majority of our debt (both private and public) is Euro-denominated.

weedfreedomtinp

would cause to many problems now after the lisbon treaty .. and i voted no to that 2

View

weedfreedomtinp wrote: »

would cause to many problems now after the lisbon treaty .. and i voted no to that 2

And the link to Lisbon is?

nesf

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Yeah 12% is much lower than I would have though, biased experience I suppose.
That figure needs to be raised much higher, Irish Boutique/Niche businesses need to realise they can compete on an international scale as long as they have the quality of work.

It shouldn't surprise you, the turnover of SME Irish firms is going to be dwarfed by the turnover of Pfizer etc in terms of value of exports. The 50% of jobs figure does coincide with your experiences though, you just made the mistake of assuming because a lot of people work in an area that the turnover must be very high which isn't always the case due to differences in value added in different industries. Cork had a higher GDP per capita than anywhere else in the country because of the pharma companies in the area generating a silly amount of exports per worker employed in Euro terms.

K-9

nesf wrote: »

It shouldn't surprise you, the turnover of SME Irish firms is going to be dwarfed by the turnover of Pfizer etc in terms of value of exports. The 50% of jobs figure does coincide with your experiences though, you just made the mistake of assuming because a lot of people work in an area that the turnover must be very high which isn't always the case due to differences in value added in different industries. Cork had a higher GDP per capita than anywhere else in the country because of the pharma companies in the area generating a silly amount of exports per worker employed in Euro terms.

Intel was like that in the 90's I think, I'm sure its still very high.

So we have to hope Pfizer keeps up? :eek:

nesf

K-9 wrote: »

Intel was like that in the 90's I think, I'm sure its still very high.

So we have to hope Pfizer keeps up? :eek:

It's Pfizer plus a bunch of other companies on Little Island. Useful gathering of companies actually, it allows for specialised staff to change company without changing location as well as the concentration of commercial support services around the area.

If Pfizer and all the other pharma companies left Little Island it would create a very serious local unemployment problem and cause the collapse of a lot of Irish-owned SME companies and require others to cut their staff numbers to compensate for the drop in demand.

Dob74

Highly Salami wrote: »

so having a weaker currency than them will be good for our economy!

A weaker currency would be good for exports but now that all of our debt is held in Euro. It would bankrupt us to leave the Euro.
The only way to devalue is to cut our costs.
And that isnt going to be fun.

masteroftherealm

nesf wrote: »

It shouldn't surprise you, the turnover of SME Irish firms is going to be dwarfed by the turnover of Pfizer etc in terms of value of exports. The 50% of jobs figure does coincide with your experiences though, you just made the mistake of assuming because a lot of people work in an area that the turnover must be very high which isn't always the case due to differences in value added in different industries. Cork had a higher GDP per capita than anywhere else in the country because of the pharma companies in the area generating a silly amount of exports per worker employed in Euro terms.

Pfizer was a large client of mine

Yes there are always going to be MNC's in Ireland, but we also need indegenous industury to both support these companies, and to work for local Irish businesses, for example while on contract to Pfizer my payments came from New York so I could class that as export work. The point I was trying to make was we can export services while still remaining in Ireland, I wprked on some major projects in LA, while living in Dublin, that would be a services export in my opinion.

Spiritoftheseventies

maxwell smart wrote: »

I heard a rumour today, from a source that would have a bit of insider info, that by the end of 2010 Ireland will pull out of the Euro.....

Thoughts?

yes we will be screwed on the conversion again.

Mike 1972

Dob74 wrote: »

A weaker currency would be good for exports.

Assuming that exporters source can most of their raw materials (including energy/fuel) locally

SLUSK

Mike 1972 wrote: »

Assuming that exporters source can most of their raw materials (including energy/fuel) locally

Who dares to invest in a country who on a continued basis keeps on devaluating the currency?

97i9y3941

i been reading talks of that too on bbc website,talks even that greece could drop it since its so strong,least in the uk they had a chance to devalue their currency to encourage business again,something we cant do here,but then looking at our costs anyway we are the least cost effiecent country anyway..

Flamed Diving

Fred83 wrote: »

i been reading talks of that too on bbc website,talks even that greece could drop it since its so strong,least in the uk they had a chance to devalue their currency to encourage business again,something we cant do here,but then looking at our costs anyway we are the least cost effiecent country anyway..

Please explain, in detail, how Ireland devaluing An Punt Nua would provide a net benefit.

ei.sdraob

Flamed Diving wrote: »

Please explain, in detail, how Ireland devaluing An Punt Nua would provide a net benefit.

yes devaluing helped the UK alot :rolleyes:

they are still in a recession and still printing money to pay for government debt

Spiritoftheseventies

what will be on the new punt. historical figure or the old deer again

ei.sdraob

bayviewclose wrote: »

what will be on the new punt. historical figure or the old deer again

Bertie Ahern matches the above 2 criteria

OldJay

maxwell smart wrote: »

I heard a rumour today, from a source that would have a bit of insider info, that by the end of 2010 Ireland will pull out of the Euro.....

I heard that we going to switch to driving on the right-hand side of the road because road users still cannot seem to get to grips with driving on the left-hand side.
Nothing like a good old baseless rumour to get the ball rolling . . .

PLIIM

Justind wrote: »

I heard that we going to switch to driving on the right-hand side of the road because road users still cannot seem to get to grips with driving on the left-hand side.
Nothing like a good old baseless rumour to get the ball rolling . . .

That will happen before we leave the euro or the IMF come in.
What is it with us Irish that we want to believe impossible (bad) things will happen.

OldJay

PLIIM wrote: »

What is it with us Irish that we want to believe impossible (bad) things will happen.

Begrudgers who love to pass the buck and spend rest of time blaming

View

Justind wrote: »

I heard that we going to switch to driving on the right-hand side of the road because road users still cannot seem to get to grips with driving on the left-hand side.

Switching sides is possible - Sweden managed it at the end of the 1960's. Moreover, one TD (or Senator?) did actually propose this a while back (to little support), whereas, breaching the EU Treaties by deciding to leave the Euro isn't on the agenda of any politican or party that I have heard.

Spiritoftheseventies

Problem is that when one country sticks with its own currency like Britain did with Sterling another country invariably suffers on the conversion rates. Surely one currency for everyone is the only way to avoid that. That way we are all playing on a level pitch

OldJay

View wrote: »

Switching sides is possible - Sweden managed it at the end of the 1960's

I don't think you got my point.

Boston

bayviewclose wrote: »

Problem is that when one country sticks with its own currency like Britain did with Sterling another country invariably suffers on the conversion rates. Surely one currency for everyone is the only way to avoid that. That way we are all playing on a level pitch

No, because countries don't trade equally.

Spiritoftheseventies

Guess its all about people wanting to make a quick buck on currency valuations. Makes for a very volatile market.

Flamed Diving

bayviewclose wrote: »

Problem is that when one country sticks with its own currency like Britain did with Sterling another country invariably suffers on the conversion rates. Surely one currency for everyone is the only way to avoid that. That way we are all playing on a level pitch

You mean World Currency? The problem with that is what we have experienced in Ireland since the EMU has been the loss of control over monetary policy. If the ECB decides to lower rates and increase the money supply to counteract a recession in Germany/France (because this threatens the Eurozone GDP average), this is likely to cause overheating in economies which are currently going through booms. The reverse is also true. Of course, having a level playing field in exchange rates is good for business, within these currency clubs. So then people argue for fixed exchange rates, using currency boards (what Ireland had before the Central Bank) to achieve this. If a country is going through a recession, it merely devalues their currency relative to the currency it is pegged to, and all will be fixed, right? Well, no. This leaves the country open to currency speculators (Soros) and worse still, if the currency boards simply get the devaluation wrong, or fail to follow the parent currency closely enough, this could lead to capital flight, or too strong a Punt. So, we are left with three choices:

1) We can have discretionary monetary policy, to fight inflation, curb recessions, etc. But accept the risks of a floating exchange rate, outlined countless times on this forum.

2) We can have stable exchange rates which are good for business, and the protection of a strong currency, but no discretionary power.

3) We can have stable exchange rates which are good for business, but no protection from speculators, fallible currency board directors. But more control over currency.


Many people on this forum seem to think we can have it all three (or two) ways.

We cannot.

Aussie Sean

View wrote: »

Someone better tell the guys at the Mint - it takes a fair amount of time to run off enough coins and bank notes for a state, not to mention plan the removal of the old notes/introduce the new ones etc. etc.

QUOTE]

What if they stockpiled all the old Punt notes and coins when we changed over?

Sean