Cold Spell Discussion (19/12/09) (Band of Sleet to Snow to push south)

Neddyusa

Light rain in Roscommon now. 2C dewpoint 1.9C. Light rain. No snow today.
Roads very dangerous though - water on top of black ice..

lucernarian

I think polar lows are are too rare to be mentioned in these situations. NWesterlies are useless to almost everyone wanting snow in this country. Every ramping I've ever seen with a NW based setup has failed for the exception of the north coast, and that's only when it's cold enough to snow at lower areas aswell as the mountains there!

The reality is that GFS in particular always underestimates the ridging that takes place with northerly HPs. This affects us more for NW than for E setups from my experience in these last few years. The result? Cold but no precipitation. Time after time.

Also, met eireann really only indicated up to 6 cm of the white stuff for hilly areas. My interpretation of their forecast that it would be up to 3 cm elsewhere. Was and possibly still is a valid statement to make.

maquiladora

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I think polar lows are are too rare to be mentioned in these situations.

When was the last time we had a polar low move down over Ireland?

eskimocat

As if the black ice couldn't get any more lethal here, its now drizzling on top of it!!:eek:

roryc1

holly1 wrote: »

What happened to Leahyl:(,did someone frighten her off.I miss her and her enthusiasm:).

I think she has gone to scotland looking for snow

irish1967

Blue sky and sunshine here in east Donegal. Little or no wind. Roads are fine at the moment.
I have a trip to make through some high ground later. (to get home !) If i leave it until about 3pm am I pushing my luck??

john 1994

are we going to get snwo tonite in munster :D:D

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

When was the last time we had a polar low move down over Ireland?

Dec 2000?

maquiladora

john 1994 wrote: »

are we going to get snwo tonite in munster :D:D

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp?Prov=Munster :P:pac:

Peter

Light rain shower just passed here

john 1994

il take dat as a yes :D

force eleven

I've had a look at the latest GFS Christmas Day chart - deep low pressure centre over Wales, keeping a northeasterly wind blowing - however - it looks like temperatures will be too high for snow, except maybe in the north - otherwise wet and windy and raw 5-7C for most.

But I caution, UKMO doesn't follow suit surprise, surprise, nor does ECM. I'd take it day by day at this stage....

SpitfireIV

force eleven wrote: »

- otherwise wet and windy and raw 5-7C for most.

But I caution, UKMO doesn't follow suit surprise, surprise, nor does ECM. I'd take it day by day at this stage....

Christ, I'd take anything, even fecking mild and dry over wet and windy!! . Just out of interest, what does UKMO and ECM say, dont worry, I wont hold you to it!

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

I've had a look at the latest GFS Christmas Day chart - deep low pressure centre over Wales, keeping a northeasterly wind blowing - however - it looks like temperatures will be too high for snow, except maybe in the north - otherwise wet and windy and raw 5-7C for most.

But I caution, UKMO doesn't follow suit surprise, surprise, nor does ECM. I'd take it day by day at this stage....

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2009/12/19/basis06/ukuk/rart/09122512_2_1906.gif

Pure FI though.

Good morning fellow snow junkies Im a bit late to the party today.
Ive read throught the thread, would I be right in thinking, Dublin wont be getting anysnow today, that we might just get rain?

Thanks everyone.

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2009/12/19/basis06/ukuk/rart/09122512_2_1906.gif

Pure FI though.

LOL , proverbial weather knifeedge there...bookies are sweating now...really messy after 3 days at this stage, so much for computerised modelling - Nature making sure she ain't giving up without a fight....

Graces7

Well, due at a car boot sale in Ballyshannon early tomorrow; was not even going to load the car..... But I have done, so probably something will happen now...

Don't say I don't try; loading the car takes a long while..;)

Fascinating up here as we can see miles in most directions. Something was falling over Donegal Town a while back...

I once asked re a weather station but where we were living then they did not need any..

munsterlegend

when is this outbreaks of rain front supposed to arrive?? can't see anything on the radar except scotland. did it suddenly decide to go east?

force eleven

force eleven wrote: »

really messy after 3 days at this stage, so much for computerised modelling - Nature making sure she ain't giving up without a fight....

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/in-depth/ask/julia-slingo.pdf

At the Met Office we use the same model to make weather forecasts as we do to make our climate predictions

LOL

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

when is this outbreaks of rain front supposed to arrive?? can't see anything on the radar except scotland. did it suddenly decide to go east?

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

You can see the full front there. Looks a bit weaker on our side.

munsterlegend

are they showers streaming in behind?! am a bit worried that the showers will now miss us as well, teh heavy ones anyway unless they pep up from the atlantic.

nacho libre

force eleven wrote: »

Dec 2000?

what a memorable event that was- nearly a foot of snow had accumulated in parts of the northwest by the end of that cold spell.. it may not be prudent to mention polar lows in the current setup but at the same time it's no harm to dream.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

are they showers streaming in behind?! am a bit worried that the showers will now miss us as well, teh heavy ones anyway unless they pep up from the atlantic.

Yes they are the showers behind the front.

MayoForSam

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760

This is a nice alternative to the Sat24 loop, once its loaded up fully you can drag the slider to give a very smooth forward/backward motion. Nicely illustrates the flow coming down from up north. :pac:

That's a good way of checking out the shower activity barreling down after the front, winds look to be almost northerly. Hopefully, they will carrying plenty of the white stuff for after dark later on when temperatures drop and any mild sector has passed through.

nacho libre

force eleven wrote: »

LOL , proverbial weather knifeedge there...bookies are sweating now...really messy after 3 days at this stage, so much for computerised modelling - Nature making sure she ain't giving up without a fight....

yeah the way it's going we could get snow when we least expect it out of this cold spell rather than when it's forecasted.

maquiladora

What a mess!
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

snow plow

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes they are the showers behind the front.

I have a feeling that this front coming down from the north is going to miss most of Ireland except the north-east,east and head into Britain instead.





Dan

nacho libre

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

are those bits of precipitation over ireland passing showers or remnants of the front?

maquiladora

7C here and rising...

jambofc

maquiladora wrote: »

What a mess!
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

this whole event looks like turning into a big "mess"
going to be localised by the look of it,remember the snow earlier this year,i got a dusting here in trim and 8 miles up the road in athboy there was about 5 inches of lovely white stuff

week and a half of this now,can't wait till this is all over and i get my normal life back