Donegal house prices - Where are they going to go?

RodgerTheDoger

There maybe a post already somewhere about the price of houses and speculation on when they are going to bottom out, but I am only interested in houses in Donegal.

So my question is simple - I have been watching house prices fall over the last 12 months - I have seen some half in price.

Where do we see this going?
When will it bottom out?

What should be the average price of an average house? (I know it depends on the house but we can give examples)

North_West_Art

I use this site to track prices

http://www.irishhousehunter.com/search/search.php?searchterm=donegal&period=9999&Search%21=Search

by the way, some of the listings are missleading, as in the prices were hiked up a few months ago, or listed above their real value so as to appear as if they have bargain status now.
In reality, I think that alot of houses have a ways to go yet... the larger 4 bedroom detached on a decent plot of land were really good value in certain parts of the county a few years ago, such as the Finn Vally, Convoy, Raphoe, Killygordon etc. compared to what similar properties were being advertised for throught the Gap in Donegal Town, Mountcharles, Rossnowlagh.
Land has taken a big hit though

Where do we see this going? very hard to know, no one is buying, so prices will continue to drop (depending on how desperate the sellers are... other sellers will just sit tight for a few years.)

When will it bottom out? On a national level, a long time. I think the culture of property ownership has suffered a fatal seizure.

RodgerTheDoger

I regulary check on estate agent sites at the current price of houses in my local area.
I see a lot of 3 bed semi's drop from about 240K to 140K / 150K, I also see people who bought at the 240K end and are now trying to sell for like 200K when the same house i.e. Same size from the same development is being advertised for about 60K cheaper.

It would be my intention all going well to maybe buy towards the end of 2010 but I could wait to maybe end of 2011 if it is worth my while...

Anyone think a new 3 bed semi will come down any further than say 140K realistically how far could it drop?

North_West_Art

if you go that link I posted above, and browse through some of the prices, you will see some 3 bed semis have already dropped to 125k approx, from being at 180k..... and its still 2009, where were you thinking of looking?

economignorant

Going to the same place as employment opportunities, and to think of the great development of apartments they had in Donegal Town.

Senna

Long way to go yet for Donegal property. The national average house price will probably settle at 150k (currently 220k+/-) Donegal average price would typically be well below that.

This is as comprehensive a guide to previous house prices as you can get, i would say 1998/9 prices will be the bottom of this market drop, assuming inflation does not increase at a huge rate.
http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/StatisticsandRegularPublications/HousingStatistics/

muffler

New house prices may not drop much further and I dont believe they will in any event given the fact there is now the additional cost of installing the renewable energies and payment of an ever increasing development contribution fee not to mention the possible cost of water meters and connection to public services.

Existing housing stock value could dip very slightly lower but again this is indirectly linked to the cost of a replacement new house. I suppose the bottom line is that only time will tell.

Senna

The supply and demand principles are the most important factor, huge supply of houses, very little demand. There just wont be large numbers of FTB's coming into the market in the next 5+ years. Unfortunately its FTB's that allow people to trade up or over. Without FTB's or investor, however there is no property speculation or investment at the moment, existing stock numbers do not decrease.

RodgerTheDoger

North_West_Art wrote: »

if you go that link I posted above, and browse through some of the prices, you will see some 3 bed semis have already dropped to 125k approx, from being at 180k..... and its still 2009, where were you thinking of looking?

I am from the Moville area - Inishowen, so that is where I will be looking.

RodgerTheDoger

Senna wrote: »

The supply and demand principles are the most important factor, huge supply of houses, very little demand. There just wont be large numbers of FTB's coming into the market in the next 5+ years. Unfortunately its FTB's that allow people to trade up or over. Without FTB's or investor, however there is no property speculation or investment at the moment, existing stock numbers do not decrease.

I think this is very important.

Their are other factors and I feel that need to be considered specially for Donegal. Banks lent people money on the assumption that the property would increase in value - Hence why people where given huge mortgages, probably lent money they could nor really afford...

But the important part of anyone buying a house is employment.

Business at the moment specially in Donegal are not doing well, the Sterling rate is having a huge impact local business then we have the current state of the economy on top of that.

In the last few month I am am still seeing house prices drop but still no one is buying.

The price of a average home needs to be comparible to what people earn else we are just kidding ourselves!

I think the adjustment in the economy over the next few years will see wages come down, which is going to further impact the cost of a home.

What is the average salary in Donegal? And let's not forget a lot of people in Donegal work in the North

In Donegal I can see the average house fall between 90K - 140K

Senna

RodgerTheDoger wrote: »

In Donegal I can see the average house fall between 90K - 140K

By Morgan Kelly's reckoning, they have further to go than that. He reckons that house prices have another 50% to drop, so an average 3 bed semi in Letterkenny will probably be around the 75-90k (or less).

Dismiss Morgan Kelly at your peril.
http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp09.32.pdf

doc_17

It's interesting to look at the housing stock. Ovr the past 2 years the number of houses available in certain areas is rising. Nobody is buying, people are losing jobs, incomes are falling, the gov are taking money out of peoples pockets through various measures and as a first time buyer I'm sitting tight. I'm kping tabs on house prices in the twin towns area and they keep going down. Some of them though are still priced at 2007 levels which is crazy.

210

Ballybofey and the finn valley seems to be stuck in a bit of a time warp all right. When you look at it from a common sense point of view we dont have much here by way of income generation - Anyone name a local industry ? - however we have crazy numbers of houses & crazy high prices. I'm guessing this is a hang over from the high sterling exchange rate of a few years ago. Those buyers who got a free 50 % bang for ther buck arent arround any more but sellers dont seem to have realised that yet. Once they do - prices will fall.

waffleman

Looks like a buyers market for the next 5 years anyway. Sterling is a big factor in Donegal too. the good exchange rate of a few years ago is gone, no-one from north of the border will be tempted any time soon. I would imagine a higher proportion of them would default on recently aquired mortgages instead of ploughing their sterling into a black hole euro mortgage.

Prices are only set to go down. In 3 or 4 years time building a house could be very cheap compared to 2007 levels. Donegal county council won't be able to pick and choose who to grant planning to as much as "the good old days"** If they've any sense they will push through every application possible first time round further reducing the cost of building a home on cheaper land that may not already have planning permission.

**allegedly

Senna

waffleman wrote: »

Donegal county council won't be able to pick and choose who to grant planning to as much as "the good old days"** If they've any sense they will push through every application possible first time round further reducing the cost of building a home on cheaper land that may not already have planning permission.

**allegedly

I would hope for the exact opposite, there is and will be for many years to come, a huge housing stock in Donegal, i would hope the council will be a lot stricter with planning in the future.
We do not need more houses and i cant see demographics or the local economy creating a need anytime soon. Building a house will be cheaper than buying, but we dont need more "one off" housing, we need the current stock bought up and tighter planning laws when rebuilding begins again.

MrPint

hello all,
is it fair to ask people to buy that *hite that is passed of as housing? A lot of crappy built , poorly insulted, lack of any amienties in the area, probably built in a flood/mudslide risk area. I would be very carefully buying anything built in the last ten years.
But as usual those who want to do right get F**ked by the CC and will more than likely be refused planning permission for their own house.

all the best

MrPint

Senna

Plenty of houses built by small builders that are built to a very high standard, it's some mass built estates that are poor quality and give a bad name to everything built.

We cant continue to line every rural road with one off houses when there are others un-sold. It might not be want you want, but i forsee planning getting a whole lot stricter and you'll pay a premium to meet their requirment.

waffleman

Senna wrote: »

I would hope for the exact opposite, there is and will be for many years to come, a huge housing stock in Donegal, i would hope the council will be a lot stricter with planning in the future.
We do not need more houses and i cant see demographics or the local economy creating a need anytime soon. Building a house will be cheaper than buying, but we dont need more "one off" housing, we need the current stock bought up and tighter planning laws when rebuilding begins again.

I hear what you are saying but i dont agree in the case of a couple born and raised locally with a plan for their ideal home and a piece of land being denied planning (and i know of plenty in this situation applying and applying for years and getting nowhere) while cowboy developers from far and wide get to throw up 50 houses in a year because they can grease the wheels with the council. Then speculators come in and buy it all up leaving locals out in the cold. This is the kind of planning I want to see stopped when things eventually start picking up again but it probably won't

Why should people like this be forced to take on a house that has been lying empty and has god knows what wrong with it?

anyway im off topic - i hope we will see more people getting their chance when prices come down to a reasonable level.

muffler

waffleman wrote: »

anyway im off topic

Agreed.

waffleman

muffler wrote: »

Agreed.

??

fantastic moderating - I only live for your approval

doc_17

a 4 bed detached house in ballybofey estate on the donegal rd recently went to auction. It had an AMV of 75K and sold for a 100K. On Daft there is a 4 bed semi-d house in the same estate listed for 180K. Does that tell us anything about the accuracy of the prices on websites at the min? At the end of the day if your house was worth 250K in 2007 then its probably only worth 170K now and you'd be lucky to get that. people are gonna wait.
I went into a remax agents in 2007 just curiously asking for a list of houses in a certain area. The house was a 4 bed detached in a newly built estate with a downstairs garage. The house was listed for 230K but the woman advised me to "buy now as this house would be worth an extra 30K this time next year". I didn't buy and that same house is listed for 185K today and I'd say if you lobbed in a bid of 140K you wouldn't be far off.

What goes up must go down!

RodgerTheDoger

doc_17 wrote: »

a 4 bed detached house in ballybofey estate on the donegal rd recently went to auction. It had an AMV of 75K and sold for a 100K. On Daft there is a 4 bed semi-d house in the same estate listed for 180K. Does that tell us anything about the accuracy of the prices on websites at the min? At the end of the day if your house was worth 250K in 2007 then its probably only worth 170K now and you'd be lucky to get that. people are gonna wait.
I went into a remax agents in 2007 just curiously asking for a list of houses in a certain area. The house was a 4 bed detached in a newly built estate with a downstairs garage. The house was listed for 230K but the woman advised me to "buy now as this house would be worth an extra 30K this time next year". I didn't buy and that same house is listed for 185K today and I'd say if you lobbed in a bid of 140K you wouldn't be far off.

What goes up must go down!

Worth is a funny thing - saying something is worth something is only correct is someone is willing to buy it, else it is worth nothing!

donegalman1

It'll be interesting in Donegal as most developers probably won't come under NAMA's remit.

Until Banks lend, its unlikely that anybody will have the confidence or likelyhood of buying in any case.

Donegal Co Council also got ripped off by people who didn't deserve housing and more that sold them houses at inflated prices.

Many were screwed in Donegal not just by the banks or Govt, there were speculators here too, Estate Agents etc that falisfied applicatiions and people who bought off plans and sold off at profit without paying a penny in tax it seems on their 'mark up'. Hope those who did get Tax Audits.

The whole system was wrong, made a fool of the council and people and its hard to see how prices can be justified until they drop dramatically,

ednwireland

i know someone on a housing estate in ennischrone who paid 270k a couple of years ago, the bank sold the rest of the houses last year for 88k, as she says she's not going anywhere for a long time. this is the only 1st hand info i have heard

Hootanany

ednwireland wrote: »

i know soemone on a housing estate in ennischrone who paid 270k a couple of years ago, the bank sold the rest of the houses last year for 88k, as she says she's not going anywhere for a long time.

:eek:Thats terrible

waffleman

ednwireland wrote: »

i know someone on a housing estate in ennischrone who paid 270k a couple of years ago, the bank sold the rest of the houses last year for 88k, as she says she's not going anywhere for a long time. this is the only 1st hand info i have heard

WOW! 2 thirds off peak - i didnt think prices would go down that far in Donegal (and based on that kind of fire sale activity will probably go down further or the bank wouldnt be selling) - suppose it depends how desperate the bank or seller is for the cash

DanFindy

Some good prices for good houses are still being achieved but rightly so the botch job housing estate prices are falling out of the sky. I built a house 5 bedroom 3down(ensuite) 2 up(dormer) large downstairs bathroom and upstairs bathroom. Small office/study upstairs. Large entrance hall, good sized kitchen/scullery and sitting room. Fully finished with oak timber doors skirting etc, completely finished lawns all sown ranch fenced kerbed back wall. Everyting done to a high standard i used all hand picked sub contractors, excellent site with view up towards Ardara 3min drive, quiet and very safe for children as there is a short lane to the house and and it doesnt branch onto a major route.
Houses in estates near me were making 250-300k for fired up half finished places, mine is a turn key safe well finished family home, i may need to move but will my house now be worth 350-380k??? Any thoughts?? huge work and effort went into the finished project and am i making a profit on this after taking into account the site value.....no i bloody well am not but its annoying to think these rogue builders got away with blue feckin murder for so long:mad:

md23040

DanFindy wrote: »

Some good prices for good houses are still being achieved....Houses in estates near me were making 250-300k for fired up half finished places, mine is a turn key safe well finished family home....i may need to move but will my house now be worth 350-380k??? Any thoughts?? huge work and effort went into the finished project

You property is only worth what people are prepared to pay for it and the only way to judge its value would be by putting it on the market subject to offers from Paddies day forward. That is when the activity should theoretically come to life again. However, the housing market is dead in my opinion and is dying the hard way through a 1000 cuts. There's a Mexican stand off out there, for the last 30 months between buyers and sellers, but with prices not forecast to rise and rents falling its a buyers market, and this group can wait it out.

Banks are refusing lending above 3.5x main salary and 1.5x second salary, and this will probably be curtailed further due to drops in net disposable incomes.

Three bed semi in the Finn Valley/Letterkenny area where €57k in 1994, this type of housing will fall to €75k-€95k. The rest of the market will benchmark this, again IMO.

*** Edit Add/on If there is this much trouble with low interest rates, imagine what happens supply when rates start to increase, to stave inflation.

Donegal and Ireland alike, will be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

RodgerTheDoger

DanFindy wrote: »

Some good prices for good houses are still being achieved but rightly so the botch job housing estate prices are falling out of the sky. I built a house 5 bedroom 3down(ensuite) 2 up(dormer) large downstairs bathroom and upstairs bathroom. Small office/study upstairs. Large entrance hall, good sized kitchen/scullery and sitting room. Fully finished with oak timber doors skirting etc, completely finished lawns all sown ranch fenced kerbed back wall. Everyting done to a high standard i used all hand picked sub contractors, excellent site with view up towards Ardara 3min drive, quiet and very safe for children as there is a short lane to the house and and it doesnt branch onto a major route.
Houses in estates near me were making 250-300k for fired up half finished places, mine is a turn key safe well finished family home, i may need to move but will my house now be worth 350-380k??? Any thoughts?? huge work and effort went into the finished project and am i making a profit on this after taking into account the site value.....no i bloody well am not but its annoying to think these rogue builders got away with blue feckin murder for so long:mad:

Aiming you house at 350-380K you are basically ruling out about 99% of people looking to buy or who are able to buy in the current climate.

It is a bit like someone buying a car for 80K there are people that can do it, just not a lot.

The issue we had before the ressession was people on moderate wages where getting approved for loans they had no real right getting. This has now stopped. You need to look at the average earnings of people in your area, can they afford it? Also how much do you think it would actually cost to build today? My uncle is a builder old school, he has built houses, real nice houses 4 / 5 bedroom for a cost of under 100K

RodgerTheDoger

muffler wrote: »

Agreed.

Disagree with both of you - I do not see how this is off topic, there are a number of factors that can contribute to housing prices. Social, planning, local economy, jobs, currency, politicts can all impact on the value of houses in any given area!

On opening this thread I was hoping people would look at the bigger picture in relation to contributing issues surrounding the donegal housing prices.

Planning is a relevent factor is it not?

muffler

RodgerTheDoger wrote: »

So my question is simple - I have been watching house prices fall over the last 12 months - I have seen some half in price.

Where do we see this going?
When will it bottom out?

That is your query and therefore the topic for debate.

waffleman wrote: »

while cowboy developers from far and wide get to throw up 50 houses in a year because they can grease the wheels with the council. Then speculators come in and buy it all up leaving locals out in the cold. This is the kind of planning I want to see stopped when things eventually start picking up again but it probably won't

Why should people like this be forced to take on a house that has been lying empty and has god knows what wrong with it?

That is the bulk of the post which was nothing more than a rant about planners and developers and which dragged this thread off topic and waffleman even conceded this point.

RodgerTheDoger wrote: »

Disagree with both of you - I do not see how this is off topic

Perhaps you may want to read wafflemans comments again to determine if they are on or off topic. If you are anyone else wants to start a separate thread on planning then please do so.


Please read the forum charter where it will tell you not to argue with a mod on thread and also if you have a query regarding the moderation of this forum then feel free to PM me.