Cold Spell Discussion (23/12/09) (Possible snow in south and east later)

ninebeanrows

Well very very poor short term model output this morning.

The energy given to the small shortwave approaching from the south has disappeared, the low is now very small and undeveloped.

Pushes some light band of precip up into the south and southeast and the develops some showers onto the east coast overnight tonight and during Thursday which will give some seasonal snow.

Some extremely cold temperatures on Christmas eve, locally down to -10c.

Snow chances on Christmas day increas for many inland northern areas.

It also only briefly turns less cold during late Christmas day and Stephens day before northerly and then northeasterly winds take hold again.

Lets hope this low to the south gets its act together and spills north.

DOCARCH

Min overnight temp here up to 7am was -0.1c. +0.3 at 7am. Now -2.0c.

Pangea

force eleven wrote:

Only slightly milder for Christmas Day and Stephens Day - then we reload the cold. Outlook models look very wintery once again. We could be on the brink of a prolonged cold spell - everything is pointing towards it from the 27th onward.

R ya serious ,thats great!
Post of the week

emac82

Raining here in cork!! Anyone about to go out in the car be very careful. Rain has frozen to the road straight away and turned it into an ice rink. Bandon is lethal at the moment. Came across 4 accidents within 1 mile coming to work.

billy the squid

mulingar recorde d -7 in the last hour.

Pangea

Christmas morning will be lethal for people travelling,
Just checked that norwegian site again, it says -4 now for Letterkenny on christmas morning instead of -8 which it said last night,
But met eireanns website said -8 for some parts in the north on christmas eve night;)
so knowing how met eireann are modest it will probably be colder than that!

ninebeanrows

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

Keep track on the development of the system.

It has been developing almost like a hurricane with the banding of convection.

Lets hope to see it really develop and push up the Irish sea.

plein de force

-2.9c dp:-2.0c in north dublin
hoping for some snow later

irish1967

Pangea wrote: »

Christmas morning will be lethal for people travelling,
Just checked that norwegian site again, it says -4 now for Letterkenny on christmas morning instead of -8 which it said last night,
But met eireanns website said -8 for some parts in the north on christmas eve night;)
so knowing how met eireann are modest it will probably be colder than that!

Due to travel from Donegal Town to Letterkenny on Christmas morning...me thinks I will be having pizza for Christmas Dinner here in Donegal town instead of Turkey & all the trimmings in Letterkenny:(

TomTom

Any estimation for this afternoon (4pm ish) along M4/M6 route? Can we expect more freezing fog?

leahyl

emac82 wrote: »

Raining here in cork!! Anyone about to go out in the car be very careful. Rain has frozen to the road straight away and turned it into an ice rink. Bandon is lethal at the moment. Came across 4 accidents within 1 mile coming to work.

Not raining in the city! And apparently it's snowing in Bantry !
I don't know the clouds this morning in the city look like they are FULL of snow seriously! I have a good feeling about today....!:D

kleefarr

Kilkenny City outskirts..

Temperature: -5.9 °C
Dew Point: -6.2 °C

Very heavy frost.

Mothman

The grass min is at its overnight low of -9C so I may see -3C yet this morning.

-3.0C now
Just going out to do 09z obs

owenc

yay we had our first frosty night temp got down to -6c yay!!!!! so id say well get a lovely icee day!

Su Campu

I'm still going with what I said last night and think this will be a very limited affair. And Met Éireann have downgraded Evelyn's optimism of last night too.

All the models are pretty much in agreement that only the far southeast will see any real precipitation worth talking about. No real upper level support for enhanced convection. Conditions are marginal at best for precip to fall as snow at low levels - at higher levels in the south facing slopes of south Wicklow/Carlow, etc. orographic lift may give some more precipitation, and a better chance of snow. Dublin may not see any precip at all.

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Just going out to do 09z obs

Current temp -3.2C
Air min -3.3C
grass min -9.5C
5cm soil 0.1C
10cm soil 1.0C
20cm soil 2.3C

owenc

i think -10c is possible for here tonight

Pangea

irish1967 wrote: »

Due to travel from Donegal Town to Letterkenny on Christmas morning...me thinks I will be having pizza for Christmas Dinner here in Donegal town instead of Turkey & all the trimmings in Letterkenny:(

If worse comes to worse , start walking it and im sure someone will be coming past with a 4 by 4 and lift ya!

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

If worse comes to worse , start walking it and im sure someone will be coming past with a 4 by 4 and lift ya!

good one they closed the two roads to limavady and vice versa here because the snow was that deep on the mountain..... since its not been on the news you have no idea what its like here! and that mountains only 300m high........

emac82

leahyl wrote: »

Not raining in the city! And apparently it's snowing in Bantry !
I don't know the clouds this morning in the city look like they are FULL of snow seriously! I have a good feeling about today....!:D

Im just outside bandon! Was full of hope when i got up and saw grey skies but alas just turned out to be rain!:( Hope the city has better luck!

doccy

that's a bit of a disaster though. If rain falls overnight, the roads on the East coast will be like ice rinks tomorrow

mickger

Heaviest frost so far from this cold spell. Everywhere is White and it looks like snow has fallen but it has'nt. Temp of -3.7 and cloudy here in Waterford City. Hopefully a few snow showers later. Low last night hit -5.4 which is a record for me.

leahyl

emac82 wrote: »

Im just outside bandon! Was full of hope when i got up and saw grey skies but alas just turned out to be rain!:( Hope the city has better luck!

I hope so too.....still dry here anyway - for the moment - they forecasting snow showers in the afternoon on 96fm - not that you should take their forecast seriously:rolleyes:!!

Graces7

Ah well; we have turkey and most of the trimmings up here and are haopy indeed to share on Christmas Day.

I think you walked 3 miles the other night so that is no problem!

irish1967 wrote: »

Due to travel from Donegal Town to Letterkenny on Christmas morning...me thinks I will be having pizza for Christmas Dinner here in Donegal town instead of Turkey & all the trimmings in Letterkenny:(

Villain

-5.6c my lowest Temp this morning @8:57 am

Might see some snow later

Graces7

Dear Lord, have mercy. More and more cold.

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well very very poor short term model output this morning.

The energy given to the small shortwave approaching from the south has disappeared, the low is now very small and undeveloped.

Pushes some light band of precip up into the south and southeast and the develops some showers onto the east coast overnight tonight and during Thursday which will give some seasonal snow.

Some extremely cold temperatures on Christmas eve, locally down to -10c.

Snow chances on Christmas day increas for many inland northern areas.

It also only briefly turns less cold during late Christmas day and Stephens day before northerly and then northeasterly winds take hold again.

Lets hope this low to the south gets its act together and spills north.

leahyl

Ok i take back what i said about it not raining in Cork City....it is:mad: That means the snow won't lie now if it does come right?

maquiladora

Looks like slightly more precip on the 06Z run at 24 hours. Looks like the south midlands would do best for snow showers overnight from this run.

Out to 36 hours now and a much better run, midlands would do really well out of this run. Dewpoints don't look great for the east though.

irish1967

ninebeanrows

Lots of precip on this run but would likely be rain along eastern and southeastern areas, you'd wanna be 10-20 miles inland but some places inland of the east and southeast could recieve larg accumulations if it were too occur,
just too marginal for here though.

Currently -3.2c here.

The dewpoint is steadily following the air temp being a constant 0.5c lower than it due to the high RH in this air stream [bring on the beasterly to fix that!]

That means for here just 2 miles from the coast ,the temp would not want to go above 0.5c for the precip to fall as snow and that ain't going to happen.

That said,theres a bank of cloud to the south thats so far obscuring the sun rise.
Theres some acca and one cb visible in it which is surely a good sign for precip.