Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

Wibbler

Gonzo wrote: »

im gonna wait another day before I make my way to the antique's cabinet and blow the cobwebs off my snow depth ruler last used in 1991:)

Yeah, my heart says Snow, but my head says Rain.

WolfeIRE

danni2 wrote: »

Wow!! Ive just seen the video and it show a complete whiteout in my area, and I also seen the rte forecast from Jean and I was very impressed with her forecast, could this be the dream ive been waiting for years, a frontal system stalling over us bringing continueous heavy snowfall.

As we saw last week, in particular, Met Eireann have been very slow to put out warnings too far ahead of actual forecast events. Yes - it is quite possible that this snow event may not be a significant one but based on Met Eireann's current outlook the signs are that there will be a heavy and prolonged spell of snow for much of the country. If this does happen then Jean Byrne will be getting a belated xmas card from me and a voucher for Peter Marks.

jenzz

WolfeIRE wrote: »

As we saw last week, in particular, Met Eireann have been very slow to put out warnings too far ahead of actual forecast events. Yes - it is quite possible that this snow event may not be a significant one but based on Met Eireann's current outlook the signs are that there will be a heavy and prolonged spell of snow for much of the country. If this does happen then Jean Byrne will be getting a belated xmas card from me and a voucher for Peter Marks.

& a " Colour-Me-Beautiful" voucher from me - Tin foil pieces on a black top, Purple eye shadow, red lips ..... What does she be thinking ?

gimpotronitus

sorry for those on the east coast but I see this as a nocast for Dublin. Its going to be rain all the way for us. Midlands will get a dumping of snow on high ground. The temps and the cold layer just is not there for Dublin to see a lot of the white stuff.

Wibbler

gimpotronitus wrote: »

The temps and the cold layer just is not there for Dublin to see a lot of the white stuff.

Why am I not surprised? Time for that to change though, right?

"nocast" love it.

200motels

redsunset wrote: »

Yep exciting times ahead.
Sky News weather though are showing all rain for us with temps of 6 to 8 in southern half of country for tues.

And so after a short stop for repairs the Rollercoaster is back on track for the loop the loop,:D

I never go by their weather forecasts, as bad as TV3's.

Villain

I have to say based on past expierence that having Jean Byrne on the 9 News Forecast talking about Snow Risk and Wintry showers this far out from the event mean they are confident of Snow falling.

IMO Tuesday evening will start out as rain except for those from Kildare up to Meath and inland from the Coast then Wednesday will see snow for the majority of the South East and South Midlands.

Danno

It is a better setup than the Christmas Day freezing rain episode/let down. This time we have winds coming in from the east and northeast as opposed to the south and southwest on Christmas Day. While coastal fringes of the east and south may get sleet and rain, further inland it should be snow.

Danno

I will await tomorrow's 6pm model output before going into ramp mode! Irelands weather is governed by the direction of the wind.

Villain

18z downgrades but the GFS is not in agreement with the others

WolfeIRE

Villain wrote: »

18z downgrades but the GFS is not in agreement with the others

a significant downgrade IMO. Amazing how much so since the last run this afternoon.

ninebeanrows

GFS continues in major disagreement with the Euros

Movement of that low and its shape well from assured at this point.

But youd have to put your money on the Euros.

paddybar

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS continues in major disagreement with the Euros

Movement of that low and its shape well from assured at this point.

But youd have to put your money on the Euros.

and do the euros say snow?

WolfeIRE

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS continues in major disagreement with the Euros

Movement of that low and its shape well from assured at this point.

But youd have to put your money on the Euros.

weathercheck...any idea what vertical velocity (mb/hr) means?

Villain

Plus its the PUB run I expect it to swing around in the morning, if not it could all be a damp squid. Has the GFS had any manual input today and if not will that input start Monday or Tuesday?

nacho libre

what does the latest gfs ouput suggest exactly? i wonder is it what was shown on the tg4 weather earlier? i thought they'd get their info directly from met eireann??

Villain

nacho libre wrote: »

what does the latest gfs ouput suggest exactly? i wonder is it what was shown on the tg4 weather earlier? i thought they'd get their info directly from met eireann??

Showing the low pushing more North with milder air

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

what does the latest gfs ouput suggest exactly? i wonder is it what was shown on the tg4 weather earlier? i thought they'd get their info directly from met eireann??

any snowfall will be for north east in particular - a period of snowfall for northern half of country late new year's eve.

I wasn't aware that these gfs outputs were void of any human input at weekends. Hopefully, as you said Villian tomorrow's runs will upgrade matters.

nacho libre

Villain wrote: »

Showing the low pushing more North with milder air

hmm that what's the tg4 forecast was showing i believe. i wouldn't despair yet. if the ecm follows suit then start to panic.

200motels

nacho libre wrote: »

hmm that what's the tg4 forecast was showing i believe. i wouldn't despair yet. if the ecm follows suit then start to panic.

I'd wish they would make up their minds. I don't want rain. That's all we get down here.

LOL..
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59203-general-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1675845

Not quite the pub run.

lol

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59203-general-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1675845

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

start to panic.

Good advice there Nacho

Just looked at the 18z and I think it is a crock of crap

Why? because it increases the chance of potential blizzard conditions for the Connacht and Ulster.

Discard it folks

WolfeIRE

I do hope and think the GFS runs later tomorrow will be more in line with the ecm and ukmo outlooks of potential snowfall across much of Ireland. The GFS runs last week were predicting westerly winds 24 hrs out but were turned upside down by northerly winds.

We could get blizzards just about anywhere yet or heavy rain. Either way, the classic snow scenario of a warm front meeting cold air from the east is still a strong possibility.

Updated forecast from weatheroutlook.

Happy New Year from Siberia!

We're expecting cold weather to push back south across the entire country during the week ahead with an increasing risk of snow in all regions. The cold spell may intensify further during the first week of January as air from Siberia sweeps right across western Europe.
Confidence on the details is very low, but it does look as though we could be looking at quite a severe spell of wintry weather. Computer forecasting models are suggesting the cold spell may persist for at least 10 days.
So after a cold December with widespread snow it looks as though January will start off in a similar vein. Our winter forecast suggested this would be the second consecutive UK winter with colder than average temperatures, and we are now increasingly confident that this will be correct. We've heard some people suggest the chances of a cold winter in the UK are now as low as one in thirty due to climate change. If this is the case it would suggest a one in nine hundred chance of having two cold winters in succession!

Villain

The Fax charts from UKMO go against GFS with the 528 line sitting very far South

JanuarySnowstor

ALSO THE BBC 5 DAYER HAS HEAVY SNOW FOR CORK INT THURS AND FRI WITH A MIN OF -8:eek:

WolfeIRE

Villain wrote: »

The Fax charts from UKMO go against GFS with the 528 line sitting very far South

if the UKMO is correct then the likelihood of this becoming a snow event are greater. However, the further north that low moves the more likely we will be sailing in canoes rather than shouting 'mush'

MUSEIST

Wow, its amizing to see ECM/UKMO and GFS to be so far apart....
but one things for sure if I was to put my house on one it would be the ECM................fingers very much crossed at this stage:p

Villain

Its funny because in past winters the GFS has been cold and snowy and the ECM has been mild and wet and the ECM was normally right

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

if the UKMO is correct then the likelihood of this becoming a snow event are greater. However, the further north that low moves the more likely we will be sailing in canoes rather than shouting 'mush'

Well so far, the 18z DMI.DK Hirlam model seems to totally in line with the recent ECM run. Normally this is the first model to pick up on minute changes should they occur.

MUSEIST

Villain wrote: »

Its funny because in past winters the GFS has been cold and snowy and the ECM has been mild and wet and the ECM was normally right

PLease let the ecm be right, its very unusual for it to be wrong at such a short timeframe to the event.

The problem is only a slight shift in the position of the front could be the difference between boring rain and epic snow, its all in the balence now:)