Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

worryingly noaa/the u.s weather service are quite happy so far with using the gfs for their neck of the woods.
I notice that the bbc news 24 forecast has moved the precip up as far as NI.

Ireland plastered with snow from it north of south leinster and eventually Dublin.
That will please some! not me though from an imby perspective.
It looked like an almost all snow event in the north midlands up as far as south ulster

No detail on what happens after this due to uncertainty-huge uncertainty.

This already different to the week ahead on the bbc at noon today..

nacho libre

"GFS - Global Farsical System" :pac:

could there be someone from the gfs, browsing net weather, who decided to input this data for kicks to see what consternation he/she could cause:P

but seriously it certainly wouldn't surprise me if the low ends up doing what the gfs has predicted. i recall this happening quite a few times in the past, whereby predictions of wintry weather were abruply changed to that of milder weather due to a low suddenly deciding to do it's own thing. one thing is for certain a lot of nails will be chewed while awaiting the next gfs ouput:D

owenc

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ALSO THE BBC 5 DAYER HAS HEAVY SNOW FOR CORK INT THURS AND FRI WITH A MIN OF -8:eek:

i doubt cork is going to get to -4c never mind -8c! if its that cold there itll be -20c here considering we got -11c last week! :eek:

Villain

GEFS 18Z mean looks better and doesn't follow the GFS

Sponge Bob

Seeing as the councils are out of salt and out of money to buy salt and out of money to spread salt I certainly hope it is wet and warm .

WolfeIRE

Some of those ecm charts for later in the week would bring widespread snow across the country. Anyone know how accurate the ecm runs were for the xmas cold spell?

look at this GEFS run for new years eve. Fingers crossed the gfs and other models fall into line tomorrow

owenc

owenc wrote: »

i doubt cork is going to get to -4c never mind -8c! if its that cold there itll be -20c here considering we got -11c last week! :eek:

Actually cork is often colder than parts of NI depending on synoptics.
Current trends would put no snow from this system up to you ,yet dump a foot of the stuff on Armagh.
You would remain dry.

MUSEIST

I cant believe how excited I allow myself to get about these things when sooo often its a downgrade or never lives up to my expectations

Villain

GFS has issues http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html ???

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

Actually cork is often colder than parts of NI depending on synoptics.
Current trends would put no snow from this system up to you ,yet dump a foot of the stuff on Armagh.
You would remain dry.

im happy as long as we get temps cold and lower than -5c mins and -1c maxes im good with that and that happens here quite alot in the past few years!

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Actually cork is often colder than parts of NI depending on synoptics.

Exactly BB. Norn Iron can be very much warmer at times than in the "South" as they like to call it up there.

Gonzo

just checked BBC and they have most of our cities on cold snowy conditions for next week but they still have Dublin on wet and relatively mild.

Villain

Villain wrote: »

GFS has issues http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html ???

I've been looking at the us weather services technical discussions.
They're very handy for getting an idea on how reliable the professionals think,various models are.
They're an insight.
The latest discussion for the new york area was issued at 8pm our time this evening.
I don't know if they get the 18z gfs in time for that or before us.
But read it tomorrow and see if they are still following the gfs.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OKX&StateCode=NY&SafeCityName=Kennedy_International

WolfeIRE

how amazing does this look for weekend!

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote: »

just checked BBC and they have most of our cities on cold snowy conditions for next week but they still have Dublin on wet and relatively mild.

bbc news 24 definitely has the snow with you from the front by wenesday morning or before.
noon wenesday for dublin.
A lot of sleety rain or rain snow mix before that except further inland when its all snow and substantial snow.
Westmeath would be plastered.
Kildare south would be wet untill wenesday afternoon when the change begins.
Thats the latest ukmo human thinking and it's going to chop and change further.
Fascinating.

Wibbler

Gonzo wrote: »

just checked BBC and they have most of our cities on cold snowy conditions for next week but they still have Dublin on wet and relatively mild.

"Snow shield at max captain!"

Deep Easterly

Latest ECM frontal analysis suggests no big change for the mid week period; although they were issued at 7.45 utc, so maybe have not picked up on the GFS change.

WolfeIRE

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Latest ECM frontal analysis suggests no big change for the mid week period; although they were issued at 7.45 utc, so maybe have not picked up on the GFS change.

hopefully the GFS run in the morning will be error free and will fall into line with ECM and UKMO

Elmo5

I'm confused. I really want snow very badly, but I don't think it's going to happen and then again the charts are sooo good. Maybe the north will get some more but I don't think the snow is going to be that far south.

For where I live, Ken Ring has so far got the forecast bang on... cold and dry up until Christmas Day and then some rain. He predicts snowfall last week in Jan, last week in Feb so I'm hoping he's still correct then!

Don't panic!!!!

Rougies

Before Christmas somebody here (I can't remember who) predicted the current model mayhem due to lack of manual input over the festive season. I have to say I'm thoroughly enjoying it and keeping a cool head (until tomorrow)!

peasant

errr... lads ...all the automated forecasters (metcheck, accuweather, xcweather) are not only predicting heavy precip but also very strong winds.

Are we looking at a storm/blizzard here?

very windy yes..
As for precip type...keep looking out the window for live updates.

WolfeIRE

peasant wrote: »

errr... lads ...all the automated forecasters (metcheck, accuweather, xcweather) are not only predicting heavy precip but also very strong winds.

it is possible in places. Tomorrow's runs will tell all. There is a lot of confusion at the moment due to errors on the GFS in particular. metcheck is a steaming pile of :eek:. the others are subject to dramatic change over short periods.

Have a listen to the met eireann forecast at 7.55am tomorrow if you are up and about. if not check in here - we will either be celebrating the awakening of the beasterly or expressing a lot of anger over what could have been

Supercell

Sure it would be no fun if it was 100% predictable.
took me 45 mins to get home this evening instead of the usual 30, and the last 15 minutes are what took me 30 mins if that makes sense.
Even though the roads are gritted the ice is just sitting on top which presumably means really low ground temperatures. Off the main roads its white knuckle time.

Deep Easterly

Well in these painfully uncertain model watching days, we can all take find solice in George Michael:



Isn't he just great? Looking all cool and happening there in his designer sunglasses.

leahyl

WolfeIRE wrote: »

it is possible in places. Tomorrow's runs will tell all. There is a lot of confusion at the moment due to errors on the GFS in particular. metcheck is a steaming pile of :eek:. the others are subject to dramatic change over short periods.

Have a listen to the met eireann forecast at 7.55am tomorrow if you are up and about. if not check in here - we will either be celebrating the awakening of the beasterly or expressing a lot of anger over what could have been

I'm hoping ye will be doing the former! I'm all excited again! Things are lookin up for cork!:D

WolfeIRE

hopefully as this retreats south it will fall as snow right down to cork, pending the easterly/northeasterly is in place

MUSEIST

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Well in these painfully uncertain model watching days, we can all take find solice in George Michael:



Isn't he just great? Looking all cool and happening there in his designer sunglasses.

<-he looks like the smiley here

nacho libre

just heard the radio forecast there, Evelyn was saying that the precipitation will make it over much of of Connacht with only Ulster remaing dry. so that's definitely a change from what they were saying earlier.