Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

Takeshi_Kovacs

Some sneachta around the world atm
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/12/snowy_scenes.html

Redsunset

"The great white siberian army is coming from the northeast"




The UK is facing further cold, wintry weather as it moves towards New Year's Eve and a cold start to 2010, forecasters said.

Tiffany Curnick, from Meteogroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said:

"From Wednesday onwards northerly and north-easterly winds will sweep the country bringing snow showers everywhere. Those showers could come in land anywhere really.

"So, by the time we get to New Year it looks like it will be cold everywhere with snow showers,especially around all areas exposed to the north and north-easterly winds.




PS I've nicked the title from a post from Black Briar, simply brilliant.:D

Redsunset

GFS has not sided with the euros again,its still bloody drunk(i hope)
Still bringing low farther north.

EDIT;Actually it's pure SH1TE

DOUBLE EDIT;its just so wrong,it has to be,don't make sense,thats it im blanking it now.

Graces7

Yep.... but this only sinks in when you are at the mercy of the reality of it

Else it remains a beautiful dream with no hard edges!

Ah dream on while we deal with being marooned in a sea of ice! Cold beauty...

Min wrote: »

It is horrible weather for some people, I mean dangerous roads, risk of falling and breaking something, farming.
That really cold frosty weather with ice and frozen water pipes is no fun.

Jean was talking about night temperatures of -10 or lower for the second half of the week.
Ice is no fun when you have to work in it, too scary.

Graces7

Young person; your posts are very hard to understand. I am sure your teachers would be sad to see the way you write and have maybe taught you better?

owenc wrote: »

erm no im near coleraine in the countryside and coleraine is a good 10 miles inland around 13 miles but we dnt get effected like the sea like other coastal areas because we are north facing and climbing up a mountain have you been?

Graces7

Ah well.. I am well stocked and have a knitting order to work on, and a book to write, so that is fine.... Let come what comes..

nacho libre wrote: »

you'll start getting snow again if the wind goes northerly on Thursday as it's progged to do.

snaps

Another cold one here this morning, -4.7c. Off to work now, havent started my car up since last monday, should be interesting!

M.T. Cranium

Looking at the various 00z forecast models, the prospects vary from some scattered snow and sleet (GFS) to an all-out snowstorm developing (UKMO) ... it all depends on the intensity of low pressure and how well it holds to an organized E-NE wind field across Ireland next 2-3 days.

With the depth of cold being reported this morning, I have the feeling that the snowfall forecasts should be taken seriously, the maps showing a deeper low and more organized circulation look more credible in the situation.

This could mean snow developing late today and spreading north through tonight and Tuesday, to cover much of the country on Wednesday, and this may just be part one of a two-phase snowfall event as sea effect increases by New Years.

sdanseo

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Looking at the various 00z forecast models, the prospects vary from some scattered snow and sleet (GFS) to an all-out snowstorm developing (UKMO) ... it all depends on the intensity of low pressure and how well it holds to an organized E-NE wind field across Ireland next 2-3 days.

With the depth of cold being reported this morning, I have the feeling that the snowfall forecasts should be taken seriously, the maps showing a deeper low and more organized circulation look more credible in the situation.

This could mean snow developing late today and spreading north through tonight and Tuesday, to cover much of the country on Wednesday, and this may just be part one of a two-phase snowfall event as sea effect increases by New Years.

Shouldn't this have its own thread so? There were thousands of posts leading up to Christmas for what turned out to be snow for less than half the country and probably about 25% of the posters :P

Elmo5

Wow, MT first thing I did this morning was log on to see your forecast. I hope you are right, but at the same time, met eireann need to be getting off their fence and issuing a warning. I don't think that the GFS is right either.

Our frost this morning is very severe, just like Christmas eve, around -3.

ninebeanrows

Siutation this morning is absolutely fascinating

As short as T+42hrs we have huge differences

GFS stubborn with Low pushed well up over Ireland.

UKM has tended slightly towards GFS but still has low much further south.

ECM has absolutely none of the GFS trending with the low well to the south.

Unbelievable differences at such a short distance.

6z GFS and all the model runs in the coming 24hrs will be fascinating.

Villain

Ah I think the models just hit the Brandy too much over the xmas, I just hope the GFS is the one who drank he most and when its sobers up it comes more in line.

At this stage I'm tending to the rain with the Low too far north because well thats what usually happens, really hope the 12z GFS makes a big U-Turn

BBC news 24's forecasts this morning are downgrading the snow potential from this weather system tonight and tomorrow over Ireland.
Looking at their latest maps ,it will turn to snow eventually in most places but only as it pushes south but it will be a mostly rain event except well inland and on high ground for the most part.

Certainly,going on their indications,you wouldnt be expecting any disruption from it in the Dublin area.
On that basis,it's right that Met Éireann should mention the risk but specefic weather warnings can wait untill late tonight or tuesday as they may not be needed.

The cold following the system seems delayed by the system itself.

Hooter23

Joe Bastardi European Blog
Joe Bastardi's Europe Column
[FONT=helvetica,arial]POSTED: 10:43 p.m. December 27, 2009[/FONT]

[FONT=helvetica,arial]The thoughts expressed in this column represent Joe Bastardi’s personal interpretation of the weather pattern formulated from his expert analysis of the conditions affecting the weather in Europe. This discussion is usually updated Weekly (sometimes several times during the course of the week) so please check back often!
Joe's column and graphics are © AccuWeather, Inc. Redistribution in whole or in part is prohibited.[/FONT] </FONT itxtvisited="1">
DEC 28 3 AM LONDON TIME
MAJOR SNOWS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND PRECEDE ARCTIC SURGE INTO EUROPE.
Much of England from Manchester north, and much of Ireland is in for a major snow later tonight through Wednesday as a storm cuts across the south of england with major warming south of the path and much colder air coming in behind it. By the New Years, arctic air will be on the move and most of Europe north of 40 north will turn frigid Jan 1-10. In fact for the northern hemisphere, this could be one of the coldest openings for land dwellers since the 1970s with the far east and much of the US sharing in the arctic attack.
There is an interesting model debate here as the track is forced further south with time, but suffice it say this is the first volley in the return of winter. We told you it would warm up for a time, but the post back on Thursday or Friday ( the one before the post below) was a warning shot from me that the first 2 weeks of the new year will see a resurgence of the cold, even worse for much of the continent and I see now reason to back from that now.
Its a heck of ride worldwide ciao for now ****

Villain

Yea the UKMO Fax has the 528 line much further North now, its not good this morning and looks like it could be another let down

ninebeanrows

Villian, that fax chart is not the worry at all.

It would give snow, precip would only just reach Dublin though.

The main thing is to see that the Fax has sided witht he ECM mostly.

GFS is entirely different... awaiting 6z updatenow.

Elmo5

major let down I think so far on the 6h GFS

Villain

Still a Downgrade though WC and its all trending the wrong way

ninebeanrows

The 6z has trended slightly south and may be the beginning of its move.

Could be huge falls of snow in some locations.

However i have never seen marginality like this before watching the models, just crazy stuff.

ninebeanrows

Elmo5 wrote: »

major let down I think so far on the 6h GFS

Did you see the 0z!!?

Have you seen the ECM/ UKM

The 6z is a movement towards the ECM output which has ben staunch and consistent.

TheMilkyPirate

Could someone give me a few links to the charts that you all use please, Sorry if this has been asked before!

leahyl

I don't understand met eireann sometimes - u watch their forecast on tv and they go on about snow for cork and then you look at their website and they barely mention it! What's up with that?!:mad:

Elmo5

Weathercheck wrote: »

Did you see the 0z!!?

Have you seen the ECM/ UKM

The 6z is a movement towards the ECM output which has ben staunch and consistent.

Sorry I should have waited until model had run a bit more! Wednesday-Friday looking much better!

Pangea

Looking Cold for the future!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Published at 09:00 on 28th December

All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)

(Next update at 09:00 on 4th Jan 2010)

Written by Rob McElwee
Summary
Cold with more snow.

This winter looks like going down as one of the more memorable "proper winters". The wind this coming month is anywhere from southeasterly to northerly - all cold at this time of the year.

All parts of the UK can expect more snow at some time alongside below average daytime temperatures and hard night frosts.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010
Rain, wind, snow and ice.

A low pressure area in Biscay pumps moisture into the cold air over us now. The result is a significant snow risk. At the moment, the most likely areas to be affected are Wales and mid to north England midweek, then southeast Britain for the New Year.

At first, southern Britain will be mild, wet and windy - rain rather than snow. Northern Britain will remain cold, icy and at first fog-prone.

A little more snow is possible in Scotland and northeast England, especially on Wednesday and Thursday in the northeasterly wind.

Sunshine is in short supply with possible exception of northwest mainland Scotland.

Monday 4 January 2010 to Sunday 10 January 2010
Northerly wind all week.

Below average daytime temperatures, moderate to severe night frosts.

A reasonable breeze should prevent persistent fog and allow daytime sunshine; With the exception of those areas exposed to the windblown showers there should be above average sunshine.

The windblown showers are likely to all be of snow and concentrated in northern Scotland. You can also expect a fair few in eastern England, including East Anglia.

Monday 11 January 2010 to Sunday 24 January 2010
Cold east or southeasterly wind.

Temperatures will continue to be below average both day and night.

Snow and sleet showers will be concentrated in eastern England, especially the northeast.

Western Britain looks sunnier and drier than elsewhere because of the wind's direction. Northern Ireland maintains its average.
Next week

In my memory, February has always brought the coldest and snowiest weather. My memory may be deceiving me but if not...

leahyl

Yay! Bring it on!:D

Pangea wrote: »

Looking Cold for the future!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Published at 09:00 on 28th December

All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)

(Next update at 09:00 on 4th Jan 2010)

Written by Rob McElwee
Summary
Cold with more snow.

This winter looks like going down as one of the more memorable "proper winters". The wind this coming month is anywhere from southeasterly to northerly - all cold at this time of the year.

All parts of the UK can expect more snow at some time alongside below average daytime temperatures and hard night frosts.

Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010
Rain, wind, snow and ice.

A low pressure area in Biscay pumps moisture into the cold air over us now. The result is a significant snow risk. At the moment, the most likely areas to be affected are Wales and mid to north England midweek, then southeast Britain for the New Year.

At first, southern Britain will be mild, wet and windy - rain rather than snow. Northern Britain will remain cold, icy and at first fog-prone.

A little more snow is possible in Scotland and northeast England, especially on Wednesday and Thursday in the northeasterly wind.

Sunshine is in short supply with possible exception of northwest mainland Scotland.

Monday 4 January 2010 to Sunday 10 January 2010
Northerly wind all week.

Below average daytime temperatures, moderate to severe night frosts.

A reasonable breeze should prevent persistent fog and allow daytime sunshine; With the exception of those areas exposed to the windblown showers there should be above average sunshine.

The windblown showers are likely to all be of snow and concentrated in northern Scotland. You can also expect a fair few in eastern England, including East Anglia.

Monday 11 January 2010 to Sunday 24 January 2010
Cold east or southeasterly wind.

Temperatures will continue to be below average both day and night.

Snow and sleet showers will be concentrated in eastern England, especially the northeast.

Western Britain looks sunnier and drier than elsewhere because of the wind's direction. Northern Ireland maintains its average.
Next week

In my memory, February has always brought the coldest and snowiest weather. My memory may be deceiving me but if not...

Su Campu

Here's an interesting thread by Wetterfuchs in the Wetterzentrale forum describing the evolution of the snowstorm of the century in northern Germany in '78/'79. Pretty amazing stuff, I wonder if we'll see anything like that this year?!

I've put it through Google Translator so some of it may come out crazy talk but you should get the jist!

http://translate.google.ie/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fcgi-bin%2Fwebbbs%2Fwzconfig1.pl%3Fread%3D258&sl=de&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8

gimpotronitus

The south, southeast and maybe midlands might get a bit of snow but forget about Dublin. Aint gonna happen. We will get drenched though.

Pangea

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol

leahyl

Pangea wrote: »

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol

Nope Pangea I don't remember any anyway and was born in the mid eighties. I know we have a photograph though of my brother in the drive with his friends playing in what looks like a lot of snow (to me anyway!) and he was prob about 6/7 at the time which would have been 1988 but since then there hasn't been anything significant really

lucernarian

06z is still leaving Dublin out of the equation for snow for Tuesday and much of Wednesday. But it's improving bit by bit on yesterday. Perhaps, at the rate its going, it's belatedly backtracking and by the time Tuesday comes around, temperatures will be slightly lower in general?

Is there anyone particularly worried about certain areas or counties, now that there is a possibly massive event at hand? I myself am not looking forward to the possible disruption it could cause.