Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

mickger

Pangea wrote: »

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol

In Waterford City we rarely get snow but the last big snow that lasted a few days was in 1995 that I can remember.

ltdslipdiff

mickger wrote: »

In Waterford City we rarely get snow but the last big snow that lasted a few days was in 1995 that I can remember.

I remember walking home in the snow New Years day after a heavy night on the tiles that year....just a distant memory now....

leahyl

BBC weather outlook showing only light snow shower on Thursday now for cork - ever other day this week is dry or raining:( hope it doesn't play out this way

ltdslipdiff

leahyl wrote: »

BBC weather outlook showing only light snow shower on Thursday now for cork - ever other day this week is dry or raining:( hope it doesn't play out this way

Expect nothing and be surprised?

TheMilkyPirate

Pangea wrote: »

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol

I've only been around for 21 years so i can't comment on the older stuff but february 09 is the only proper snow i've ever seen down here was crazy snowed very heavy for about 8 hours i remember wiping it off the car and it must have been a good 4 or 5 inches. Was mostly all gone the next day though!

Never seen anything that lasted more than a day though.

leahyl

baraca wrote: »

I've only been around for 21 years so i can't comment on the older stuff but february 09 is the only proper snow i've ever seen down here was crazy snowed very heavy for about 8 hours i remember wiping it off the car and it must have been a good 4 or 5 inches. Was mostly all gone the next day though!

Never seen anything that lasted more than a day though.

Ya you see that's the annoying thing - the snow usually doesn't last more than a day so it's not always memorable in years to come!

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

06z is still leaving Dublin out of the equation for snow for Tuesday and much of Wednesday. But it's improving bit by bit on yesterday. Perhaps, at the rate its going, it's belatedly backtracking and by the time Tuesday comes around, temperatures will be slightly lower in general?

Is there anyone particularly worried about certain areas or counties, now that there is a possibly massive event at hand? I myself am not looking forward to the possible disruption it could cause.

Well the main issue is that we tend to pay too much attention to the GFS.

The GFS is totally out of sync with the ECM and less from the UKM.

Fax charts and bbc forecasts are taking the ECM to be the key player.

The likley scenario is a merge largely following the ECM but with a little GFS i would imagine, perhaps the perfect scenario for here??

There is certainly the potential for a very large fall of snow in some places which will cause distruption.

Somewhere where gets precip of snow could have over 24 hours of it and totals of above 1ft would be more than possible.

Whats more it would appear we are currently in what could be the coldest winter cold spell for a very long time, there is no
let up in the cold in the medium term models. Some really low minima possible in the west towards the weekend.

Here is the ECM at t+48hrs

DOCARCH

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

Expect nothing and be surprised?

That's my new motto!

I have to say whatever happens, it's all quite exciting! So much better than the usual mild Christmas periods of the past couple of years talking about possible future cold spells in distant FI

owenc

Weathercheck wrote: »

post

is it really going to be that snowy! are the colder 850 temps over ni yet?

Min

Pangea wrote: »

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol

I'm not sure how southern you want to go given I'm probably nearer to Wales than Donegal.
My father always talks about 1947, snow so high you could walk over the ditches.

We are around 220m high, I remember it in the early 1980's and snow drifts several feet high and the snow plough having to come to clear the roads.
1991 and we had to come home early from school as expected rain fell as snow and we ended up with a half foot of it which lasted for near two weeks. Kilkenny city got it too. The city is often below the snow line, the hills around it get snow quite frequently in winter.

leahyl

I love lisa Burke on sky news! Her forecast is looking scrumptious for cork!!:D

Takeshi_Kovacs

Pangea wrote: »

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol[/QUOTE
]
I remember we had heavy enough snowfall, about 12-15 years ago around Easter time, which was pretty strange, it seemed a bit late in year to snow. Plenty of times in the 80's when it snowed heavy though.

Ronan|Raven

Let it stay in Cork, may I just say feck off Ice and Snow. Give me wind and rain any day of the year at least I can still get some work done!

Doyler1981

Looking at various forecast that are available it appears to be a case that the chances of snow are pretty much gone for the moment! I'm sure that within a few days everybody in here will be talking about the big snow event, once again:D I suppose it has to happen at some stage:cool:

Pangea

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

Expect nothing and be surprised?

lol I shuda copyrighted that

ninebeanrows

Doyler1981 wrote: »

Looking at various forecast that are available it appears to be a case that the chances of snow are pretty much gone for the moment! I'm sure that within a few days everybody in here will be talking about the big snow event, once again:D I suppose it has to happen at some stage:cool:

There will be snow and potentially lots of it in parts from tomorrow afternoon/ evening and overnight and through Wednesday.

The forecast of this low looks to me like setting it up for some serious falls of snow in some parts.

However with such a knife edge situation on the flipside somewhere 20 miles down the road might be getting rain.

The front looks like pushing probably as far as Armagh, stalling trailing back, slowly pushing back south as the strong ENE increase and then eventually the band is pushed south. The area along the northern part of the front could see upto 40mm of precipitation which could be of snow.

Doyler1981

Weathercheck, I always find your post to be a really good read. Just wondering why you seem so sure, when other's (i.e BBC, MET Eireann etc) seem to think it will be rain?

irish1967

Is Donegal going to escape this snow ?

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

There will be snow and potentially lots of it in parts from tomorrow afternoon/ evening and overnight and through Wednesday.

The forecast of this low looks to me like setting it up for some serious falls of snow in some parts.

However with such a knife edge situation on the flipside somewhere 20 miles down the road might be getting rain.

The front looks like pushing probably as far as Armagh, stalling trailing back, slowly pushing back south as the strong ENE increase and then eventually the band is pushed south. The area along the northern part of the front could see upto 40mm of precipitation which could be of snow.

I really hope you're right weathercheck! I'm craving snow at this stage! Lol!

irish1967

Sorry haven't been paying as much attention as usual as a pipe burst in the attic and flooded the house!!

Scubadevils

Min wrote: »

I'm not sure how southern you want to go given I'm probably nearer to Wales than Donegal.
My father always talks about 1947, snow so high you could walk over the ditches.

We are around 220m high, I remember it in the early 1980's and snow drifts several feet high and the snow plough having to come to clear the roads.
1991 and we had to come home early from school as expected rain fell as snow and we ended up with a half foot of it which lasted for near two weeks. Kilkenny city got it too. The city is often below the snow line, the hills around it get snow quite frequently in winter.

I can't remember the detail but I'm pretty sure the snow in 91 wasn't expected to happen - or at least no one told me at the time :pac: I remember being in school that day and it was lashing rain out, we were on our way home on the bus and the rain turned to heavy snow, within minutes the ground was covered and it continued for several hours giving a serious dumping. Thats really the last decent snow I remember that lasted a few days.

ninebeanrows

Doyler1981 wrote: »

Weathercheck, I always find your post to be a really good read. Just wondering why you seem so sure, when other's (i.e BBC, MET Eireann etc) seem to think it will be rain?

The situation is extremely complex and uncertain at this point, but what is certain is that somewhere will get a dumping of snow but where is really unknown at this point.

I'd probably picks Cavan/ Westmeath as places which will see a big fall.

But there still remains major major differences in forecast between the UKM ECM and GFS, basically the forecasting heavyweights are at odds with
eachother at a 48 hours out, something rarely seen in modern forecasting.

Doyler1981

Fingers Crossed! What do you think the chances for Kildare are?

pistolpetes11

Doyler1981 wrote: »

Fingers Crossed! What do you think the chances for Kildare are?

Not good by the look of it .

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Kildare/

Im in Lucan, Its a lovely white crisp frosty morning. I find it hard to believe that precip wont fall as rain here..

Sorry, I meant fall as snow..

ninebeanrows

If i were the Irish MetO i would put out a Severe Weather Advisory warning of potentially heavy snow and large accumalations occuring over Munster, Leinster and south Connacht.

Accumulations of 5-10cm's widespread with above 20cm's locally in hilly areas.

With Blizzard conditions at times with stiff easterly gales.


I would say the snow will be more sleety along eastern coastal areas with perhaps rain along the southern coast.

I would however say that there is the potential for a snowstorm developing over Ireland tomorrow.

Scubadevils

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Not good by the look of it .

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Kildare/

Yeah that has me down for rain too No snow now from a feckin easterly either, what does it take?!!! As someone said on a previous thread, the Vikings really must have selected Dublin for its lack of snow etc!

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote: »

If i were the Irish MetO i would put out a Severe Weather Advisory warning of potentially heavy snow and large accumalations occuring over Munster, Leinster and south Connacht.

Accumulations of 5-10cm's widespread with above 20cm's locally in hilly areas.

With Blizzard conditions at times with stiff easterly gales.


I would say the snow will be more sleety along eastern coastal areas with perhaps rain along the southern coast.

I would however say that there is the potential for a snowstorm developing over Ireland tomorrow.

What's considered coastal... how many km's away from the coast is considered far enough inland?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

The bbc radar shows good snowfall for the south of ireland tomorrow, let me ask this question ,does any of the southern posters recall having heavy snow down there in their memory?
Apart from you mountain guys lol

yeah last week. when you were complaining about not having any snow:p

but seriously the last great snow event i had was in the year 2000

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

If i were the Irish MetO i would put out a Severe Weather Advisory warning of potentially heavy snow and large accumalations occuring over Munster, Leinster and south Connacht.

Accumulations of 5-10cm's widespread with above 20cm's locally in hilly areas.

With Blizzard conditions at times with stiff easterly gales.


I would say the snow will be more sleety along eastern coastal areas with perhaps rain along the southern coast.

I would however say that there is the potential for a snowstorm developing over Ireland tomorrow.

that sounds fantastic! Except for the rain along southern coast bit:rolleyes:!! You should definitely be employed by met eireann as their senior forecaster!:D