Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

Min

Met Eireann at 7:55am said there would be rain for rhe southern part of the country on Tuesday but it could fall as snow in the easterly winds, John Eagleton said if this happened there would be heavy falls of snow.

Min

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann at 7:55am said there would be rain for rhe southern part of the country on Tuesday but it could fall as snow in the easterly winds, John Eagleton said if this happened there would be heavy falls of snow.

Well his exact words were iirc "if that happens...well there could be a lot of snow"
He's been wrong before as have I [usually when I tell villain what to expect so I'll be keeping quiet there].

T'was funny , the radio presenter said after the forecast.."ah something to look foward to on Tuesday then...".

Deep Easterly

ECM this morning continues the same theme of cold and raw conditions setting in for next week:

Classic looking chart.

Duiske

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM this morning continues the same theme of cold and raw conditions setting in for next week:

Yes, it is certainly going to turn very cold by the end of the week. Hopefully that low, (the one thats forecast to move east along the south coast), will move a bit more to the north over the next few days, before heading east.
I know it would probably mean mild(er) air over us for a day or so longer, but in the long run it could result in something special. Snowfest

nacho libre

met eireann:

Sunday will be a cold bright day that will be generally dry; highest temperatures will only be around 4 or 5C but the breeze will be very light. There will be a severe frost again on Sunday night. The weather will continue to be cold on Monday with easterly winds increasing through the day. Generally the daytime on Monday will be dry but outbreaks of rain will gradually spread from the south during Monday night and temperatures will start to rise slightly. Tuesday will then be a wet and windy day. The rain will gradually die out on Wednesday as cold northeasterly winds set in and temperatures start to fall again. Thursday is New Years Eve and the weather is set to become very cold and wintry as we head into the New Year. Temperatures will once more fall very low at night and will not be much above freezing during the day. Severe frosts will make untreated roads very dangerous.

so the two day somewhat milder interlude now becomes four days. it's bit disappointing there is no talk of the rain turning to snow on Wednesday as the cold air kicks back in.

The o6z gfs has gotten rid of most of the northeasterlies after that low though next week and replaced them with northerlies and northwesterlies.

That I don't like from an imby perspective as it means at best a repeat of this past week with no snow for the East.

Gonzo

ah no way, not another useless northerly/northwesterly on the way:(

Villain

I'd say the GFS will do a few flips and turns over the coming days, little manual input at the moment

nacho libre

sounds good to me- although there is a greater risk of the atlantic breaking through or modifying the airmass if it swings to the northwest:mad:

so after further consideration i wouldn't mind a prolonged north easterly because we'd eventually profit this side in the long run and i suppose some of ye further east deserve to see some snow this time.

Villain

Downgrades in recent runs turning it into a rain event but not much agreement something like below could be interesting:

Local-womanizer

So happy:D

First white christmas here for about 13 years!Throwing down the snow earlier so it was!

Happy christmas all!!

6pm news forecast :
That system confined to the south monday and tuesday and rain.
No mention of northeasterlies or very cold weather up to new years.
The ecm ensemble data that we don't see and glasnevin does must be bad from a snow perspective.

As I suggested earlier I don't see where the cold air is coming from in the east wind to turn this to snow.
Britain isn't cold enough and theres no further away fetch [other than rehashed biscay air].

andr3w103

Deleted User wrote: »

6pm news forecast :
That system confined to the south monday and tuesday and rain.
No mention of northeasterlies or very cold weather up to new years.
The ecm ensemble data that we don't see and glasnevin does must be bad from a snow perspective.

And Jean looked very festive in the tin foil one piece:D

Bog Butter

andr3w103 wrote: »

And Jean looked very festive in the tin foil one piece:D

Indeed do you think she was heading out to space or something?:D

darkman2

Happy Christams Everyone. Just one post from me





BB you have little to worry about. The cold and snow is coming next week.;)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Happy Christams Everyone. Just one post from me





BB you have little to worry about. The cold and snow is coming next week.;)

Yeah later in the week hopefully barring hic up's...just not monday or tuesday except maybe on the mountain tops.
That second one is lovely except for one thing ,the fetch is copenhagen,it's got a lot milder there too ...
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/06180.html

Too mild to be honest.
The positioning of that finger of low in norway means we will be dragging in danish surface air and danish dewpoints.
We're colder than them as it is without them making us warmer :pac:

In the present set up we need that finger over scandinavia to dissappear and open the tap to the proper cold air up to the north east and not the excuse for coastal drizzle thats over Denmark and near Europe at the moment.
In other words it has to be a proper Northeaster and not an Easterly that has veered northeast down to us over Britain somewhere.

An Easterly next week would be useless.
Pangea up in Donegal is colder than moscow..

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=dme&wuSelect=WEATHER

Just being realistic...the air doesn't suddenly decide to get cold enough for us on the way,it has to be cold at the source.
We don't create our own cold pools usually except perhaps like this week when we did at the surface which as has been seen are useless when you add precip.


Anyway what we see now at 144 is not what we'll get-lets hope that REAL NE tap will open and not a mickey mouse one thats realy an easterly from mild Denmark.

ninebeanrows

ECM is on something today.

People would quite possibly have to stock up.

Winters not going anywhere folks.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM is on something today.

People would quite possibly have to stock up.

Winters not going anywhere folks.

Thats a bit better...feeding right back to siberia.
I'd like to see it at 120 or less though and I'd like to see a major cool down in moscow.
What a time for it to get warm!

darkman2

Moscow is actually very cold and this is at 120hrs - sub -6 and Northeasterly = snow.




144




Now back to my Christmas pudding. Hopefully even better charts tomorrow.:)

200motels

Happy Christmas to everyone, the posts these past few weeks have been great. Looking forward to many more in the coming months. Now back to the beer.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Moscow is actually very cold

Moscow is minus one at the moment.
I'd wager parts of this country are colder.

Any reasonable Easterly event I've experienced has included a cold surface air feed.
Thats where I'm coming from.
I've a horrible feeling that these synoptics are going to be dulled down by that.

Bog Butter

Thursday is New Years Eve and the weather is set to become very cold and wintry as we head into the New Year. Temperatures will once more fall very low at night and will not be much above freezing during the day. Severe frosts will make untreated roads very dangerous.

Sounds like this next spell will be just interesting!

nacho libre

the missed potential/ what might have been for wednesday is vexing. if the cold air, coming from the north east, had made its presence felt by this stage we would be looking at significant snowfall instead of a rain event across the middle of the country from tuesday night into Wednesday. it's extremely frustrating that the rain peters out and only then does the cold air become established over the country.

LEIN

nacho libre wrote: »

the missed potential/ what might have been for wednesday is vexing. if the cold air, coming from the north east, had made its presence felt by this stage we would be looking at significant snowfall instead of a rain event across the middle of the country from tuesday night into Wednesday. it's extremely frustrating that the rain peters out and only then does the cold air become established over the country.

I love this country nacho. But when it comes to extreme weather its a let down and its always the same let down.

nacho libre

Damo9090 wrote: »

I love this country nacho. But when it comes to extreme weather its a let down and its always the same let down.

ceratinly it is 9 times out of 10:( i am going to adopt black briars stance from now on as it's less painful. well, at least until i see the next model upgrade :pac:

Our man in Havana

As regards extreme weather it's always a case of always the bridesmaid and never the bride.

Graces7

Full Bridal Regalia up here.. You are in the wrong county is all... Frozen solid and melting snow for water..

Bond-007 wrote: »

As regards extreme weather it's always a case of always the bridesmaid and never the bride.

darkman2

Forget the charts - what I say normally happens - and im tellin yehs next week you will be begging for heat:D and ski-ing along the roads:D


The Artic High is coming...

Redsunset

darkman2 wrote: »

Forget the charts - what I say normally happens - and im tellin yehs next week you will be begging for heat:D and ski-ing along the roads:D


The Artic High is coming...

Someones been on the brandy!!!!!:D



All the same she's shaping up nicely for a classic snow spell down the road.

Not gonna ramp just yet.

Pangea

Damo9090 wrote: »

I love this country nacho. But when it comes to extreme weather its a let down and its always the same let down.

I would say that this weather is extreme, harbours frozen, -12 in parts.

Im not too worried about charts, anything in FI is a waste of time , and also this type of weather has been so hard to forecast, even met eireann changed their forecasts once or twice a day with a big degree of change.
Expect nothing and be suprised.