Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

jambofc

http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/148084

line up line up get youre tickets for the new rollercoaster

Pangea

jambofc wrote: »

http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/148084

line up line up get youre tickets for the new rollercoaster

Nice link

" “It’s quite possible that we will see this type of winter more regularly but it’s how winter should be."
Hes right.
Now everybody stop moaming about the cold , its bloody winter! We got nothing compared to other parts of europe! Get used to it..

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

I would say that this weather is extreme, harbours frozen, -12 in parts.

It's extreme,I'd agree.
It's not snow heaven yet except in local micro climates which is what most peoples definition of extreme would include.
The freezing rain,really deep frost and ice is more what you'd see in the Ukraine than here.

It *might* just be the anti pasti though...

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

I would say that this weather is extreme, harbours frozen, -12 in parts.

Im not too worried about charts, anything in FI is a waste of time , and also this type of weather has been so hard to forecast, even met eireann changed their forecasts once or twice a day with a big degree of change.
Expect nothing and be suprised.

yes, you're right of course it is extreme/exceptional in terms of temperatures, but that's not quite enough for me and i suspect many others, who deem extreme winter weather to be synonymous with epic snowfall. so with this in mind i really want to hear three magical words from an irish forecaster within the next 8 days.

and those words are: significant accumulations likely - even at lower levels:D

I haven't heard those sweet-sounding words since the year 2000

Nacho -you *just* might on Tuesday as the BBC news 24 graphics presented by mr thomas shafalopugus [or whatever his name is ] had the rain band going as far as south ulster and turning to snow inland from your area across to Dundalk.
Rain they had in Dublin southward.
But of course I'd expect supercell at annamoe to have the rain sleet mix to turn to snow there too so he and artic tree might want to fill the fridge on todays shop!

That will change of course.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

Nacho -you *just* might on Tuesday as the BBC news 24 graphics presented by mr thomas shafalopugus [or whatever his name is ] had the rain band going as far as south ulster and turning to snow inland from your area across to Dundalk.

That will change of course.

it probably will:(. in saying that though, the bbc precipitation chart was spot on a couple of days ago, when it showed snow mainly for Northern Ireland on Christmas day with those of us further south under the blue stuff, so hopefully they'll be right again.

nacho libre

met.ie:

Outlook

Very cold overnight Sunday night with a severe frost, icy roads and some patches of freezing fog. Lowest temperatures zero to -5 C. Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds will ease off, and the scattered rain and hail showers will die out. The weather will continue to be cold on Monday with easterly winds increasing through the day. Dry and bright in many areas with some weak winter sunshine developing and with frost, fog and ice clearing gradually. But the frost and fog may never clear from much of Ulster. Also, cloud will stream into Munster and south Leinster from the south, and rain will develop there in the afternoon. Monday night and Tuesday will be bitterly cold and windy in all areas with a stiff easterly wind, which will be especially strong and blustery over Munster and Leinster, with some spells of quite heavy rain, which fall as sleet or even snow on hills and Mountains. Over Ulster and Connacht, the weather should stay largely dry, with a hard frost Monday night, and some bright spells on Tuesday. There will be further heavy rain and sleet on Tuesday night over parts of the south and east, but it should be cold and largely dry elsewhere with a hard frost and icy roads. At this stage, it looks as if that rain and sleet, will slide away into Wales and the south of England early on Wednesday, so that it will be a cold, and still a breezy day countrywide, with a fresh and gusty northeast breeze. Most places dry with sunny spells, but a few wintry showers are likely along the east and possibly also on parts of the north and northwest coasts. Thursday, New Year's Eve, and Friday, New Years Day will both be very cold and frosty with icy roads and pavements in many places. Scattered wintry showers in coastal areas all

roryc1

Deleted User wrote: »

Nacho -you *just* might on Tuesday as the BBC news 24 graphics presented by mr thomas shafalopugus [or whatever his name is ] had the rain band going as far as south ulster and turning to snow inland from your area across to Dundalk.
Rain they had in Dublin southward.
But of course I'd expect supercell at annamoe to have the rain sleet mix to turn to snow there too so he and artic tree might want to fill the fridge on todays shop!

That will change of course.

Good morning

BB please don,t tell me Dublin has it,s snow shield up next week too :mad:

arctictree

Interesting charts for next week.

BTW, mountains over 500M in Wicklow seem to be plastered with Snow. Lugnaquilla looks a stunning white from here and I'd say could have a snow cap for most of the winter, like last year. It would be strange to be saying things like that earlier in the decade.

jenzz

Dear: Darkman2,nacho,Pangea,Weathercheck, MT,Maquiladora,BB, Greysides, Grace, Trogdor, 200motels,Deep Easterly, Greysides,leeside, Damo,Jambo, Gonzo,Wibbler,Peasant, Mike, Mick,Villain, Duiske,Min, TBC, Mal, Bond, redsunset, Artic & even your man John/Patrick ( wreck the buzz whatever his name was)

I want to say a thanks for all the fun on FI. Im in every night , I have learned more about weather from you guys than any scientist would tell us. Your brilliant to tell us all exactly as it is.

So Happy Happy new year to you all & best snow wishes for 2010.

You expertise is very very much appreciated & love & hugs all round

See you in FI next week

Jen
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

met.ie:

Outlook

Very cold overnight Sunday night with a severe frost, icy roads and some patches of freezing fog. Lowest temperatures zero to -5 C. Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds will ease off, and the scattered rain and hail showers will die out. The weather will continue to be cold on Monday with easterly winds increasing through the day. Dry and bright in many areas with some weak winter sunshine developing and with frost, fog and ice clearing gradually. But the frost and fog may never clear from much of Ulster. Also, cloud will stream into Munster and south Leinster from the south, and rain will develop there in the afternoon. Monday night and Tuesday will be bitterly cold and windy in all areas with a stiff easterly wind, which will be especially strong and blustery over Munster and Leinster, with some spells of quite heavy rain, which fall as sleet or even snow on hills and Mountains. Over Ulster and Connacht, the weather should stay largely dry, with a hard frost Monday night, and some bright spells on Tuesday. There will be further heavy rain and sleet on Tuesday night over parts of the south and east, but it should be cold and largely dry elsewhere with a hard frost and icy roads. At this stage, it looks as if that rain and sleet, will slide away into Wales and the south of England early on Wednesday, so that it will be a cold, and still a breezy day countrywide, with a fresh and gusty northeast breeze. Most places dry with sunny spells, but a few wintry showers are likely along the east and possibly also on parts of the north and northwest coasts. Thursday, New Year's Eve, and Friday, New Years Day will both be very cold and frosty with icy roads and pavements in many places. Scattered wintry showers in coastal areas all

The key phrase there is : at this stage
In other words like the rest of us,they are guessing a lot as to what will happen.

Redsunset

He's like a never ending ramping machine.

Cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

He's like a never ending ramping machine.

Cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

I usually take whatever Joe Bastard has to say with a large dose of salt, but in fairness, he has been close so far this winter.

Redsunset

By Tuesday, a series of Atlantic storms will take aim at northern France and southern Britain. Link with this the cold northerly wind flow and I would look for outbreaks of substantial snow in England and wales.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&blog=andrews&pgurl=/mtweb/content/andrews/archives/2009/12/winter_softens_in_europe_not_british_archipelago.asp

Redsunset

Teleconnections have remained beautiful.




The AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) when negative basically means high pressure over the pole helping to flood south of it with cold air.

It helps to have a split or distorted polar vortex to latch on to.



And also the NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION)









Remember that The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions.


In other words Greenland high (BLOCKING)

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

Teleconnections have remained beautiful.




The AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) when negative basically means high pressure over the pole helping to flood south of it with cold air.

It helps to have a split or distorted polar vortex to latch on to.



And also the NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION)







Remember that The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions.


In other words Greenland high (BLOCKING)

also those going to the azores region for a sun holiday might be a bit peeved:P

Graces7

Pangea; maybe I am the only one to disagree with you and to find this mail less than acceptable.

Many of us are suffering; if the authoritoes really insist that we keep warm in our old age, then maybe campaign to them to give us the means to do so, as some other European countries already do; or to ensure that local authorities are better at gritting and safeguarding, again as other countries do.

Then we could enjoy winter more. Life is not just for the fit amd mobile.

Or motivate neighbours to watch out for the more vulnerable..Which very few do

Just to shout at those who are in difficulties and dare to say so? REALLY!

OK; I quit! I am too cold and ill to stay online.

And not looking forward to having to drive tomorrow on solid ice.

And to be shouted at for needing to be safe and warm in this bitter and extreme weather, that is so utterly beautiful, but deadly also and dangerous.

Happy New Year to all here; some wonderful folk here; thank you so much for the company.

Stay safe and warm. Especially Pangea



" “It’s quite possible that we will see this type of winter more regularly but it’s how winter should be."
Hes right.
Now everybody stop moaming about the cold , its bloody winter! We got nothing compared to other parts of europe! Get used to it..[/quote]

Deep Easterly

It is the GFS latest run; it is way out of the range of reliability, but I am liking this chart at 117hrs (12z)



Interestingly, for the same period, the ECM model is suggesting temperatures to be as low as -5.0c across much of the northwest, -4.0c to 0.0c across much of the west and midlands. That will feel pretty intense if that strong easterly breeze in the chart above verifies!

nesf

Meh to all of you, my chance of getting to see snow in Cork city is still really small.

Duiske

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It is the GFS latest run; it is way out of the range of reliability, but I am liking this chart at 117hrs (12z)



Interestingly, for the same period, the ECM model is suggesting temperatures to be as low as -5.0c across much of the northwest, -4.0c to 0.0c across much of the west and midlands. That will feel pretty intense if that strong easterly breeze in the chart above verifies!

Spot on. That wind will be bone chilling.

Massive difference in precip on this run compared to the previous couple. If what it shows from 72hrs actually came to pass, we would see high ground everywhere have almost blizzard conditions, at some stage tues/wed, and then probably snow to lower levels as the cold air digs in behind.

It all depends on actual temps and DP's, and we all know the problems forecasting precip at more than 36hrs (or even less) out, but it has fantastic potential.

Someone was half jokingly suggesting earlier that the Wicklow hill dwellers may want to get extra shopping in. Well, to be honest, if I lived up there I would be seriously considering it.

Anyway, ramp over. There's a pub down the road with an open fire, a 50" plasma and a bar stool with my name on it, so Im off. C'mon da 'Pool

This gave me a giggle!

Unfortunately theres a lot of truth in it.

nacho libre

i got a good chuckle out of this bit:
"No but you do when there is cold on the horizon. You constantly pulled down the cold spell we just had prior because you persistently looked at each run rather then the broader, long term picture."

how dare he inject realism into the discussion:pac:

Gonzo

how cold will next week's cold spell be? looking at BBC there not forecasting any properly cold weather next week not even for the UK, there forecasting averages temps of 6-8C for all next week.

lucernarian

I'd look around for some detailed explanations of the outlook and the blocking that exists, but there's so much dross on TWO and Netweather (e.g. "so does that mean that Bradford will still get snow") that I can't get anywhere beyond learning bits and pieces about this Greenland HP.

So, can anyone explain what we need to see in the next few model runs, as there's lots pointing to a downgrade for me.

Does anyone really think that the models are running on reduced data? Most sources of data are quite automated I thought.

nacho libre

it doesn't look like a downgrade to me yet. unless the later runs show something different.

doubleglaze

Anyone like to guess what the road conditions between Galway and Waterford (via Cork city) might be like tomorrow? I was advised this morning not to travel down, that the roads were terrible and people unable to go to work.

Elmer Blooker

Gonzo wrote: »

how cold will next week's cold spell be? looking at BBC there not forecasting any properly cold weather next week not even for the UK, there forecasting averages temps of 6-8C for all next week.

I just cant see this easterly delivering anything(surprise surprise!) The airflow will originate on the near continent which isn't cold at the moment.
Looking ahead to the new year it appears the airflow will turn more northerly and those of us along the east coast know by now we'll get nothing from a northerly.

darkman2

OK guys,

The situation is that the biggest snow event in quite a number of years could be about to take Place between Tuesday Afternoon and Thursday Afternoon.

From the latest ECM run we see plenty of precipitation and very cold air pushing up against the fronts



























Inland you really should be preparing for big disruption. The snow won't arrive on Irish Sea coasts until sometime Tuesday night as evaporative cooling gets going. High ground will be in a treacherous state altogether. On Thursday sleet and snow gradually clears southwards.


The UKMO also follows this outlook with the precip getting in on Tuesday.

Interestingly as early as Tuesday afternoon the UKMO is progging temps in the Irish Sea of just 4C and that is with upper temperatures above -2 at that stage.









Obviously this is not yet set in stone but a major event is looking increasingly likely next week. Keep up with forcasts and details for your area. I think we will be hearing alot more about this tomorrow.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I'd look around for some detailed explanations of the outlook and the blocking that exists, but there's so much dross on TWO and Netweather (e.g. "so does that mean that Bradford will still get snow") that I can't get anywhere beyond learning bits and pieces about this Greenland HP.

So, can anyone explain what we need to see in the next few model runs, as there's lots pointing to a downgrade for me.

Does anyone really think that the models are running on reduced data? Most sources of data are quite automated I thought.

It's actually very simple behind all the pretend la de da that some people on net weather and other fora use.
I laugh out loud at people using phrases like model guidance and ensemble suites etc etc.

What you need is an Easterly off a cold continent.
We don't have a cold continent right now so wind off it by the time it gets here will leave us no colder than we are now.
EG minus one air at the surface when it blows over here usually converts to 4-6c which is useless.

In the case of Ireland we are always last to the table with an easterly as we're on the most modified end of it obviously.
So in an easterly,you need it to be running for at least 4 or 5 days and you want the continent to be very cold and getting colder.
-10's and -15's at the surface like the week before last would have been great.
We dont have a tenth of that right now.
We also need Britain to freeze first before we nuetralise the modifing effect of the irish sea on the air heading over-thats why we want the easterly or north easterly to last a few days to get that job done first.
Without it -you are wasting your time hoping for a significant event in Ireland.

So Whats Northeast of us? Very cold air and what do we have up there spoiling the party? a fecking low pressure system meandering around cutting off the real bitter siberian tap.
So we get a half assed North easterly or a mild Easterly.

Models can change and bear in mind we've only got some of the information.

As for tuesdays event-I stand by my thoughts at the start of this thread,I just don't see where theres enough cold air coming from to stop this being a mostly rain event this side of the irish sea as opposed to a snow event.
I've no difficulty with it turning to snow in Britain,they get a sharper dart of the air first to transfer the rain to snow.

It looks on paper very like the january 1982 event except for the fact that it's not as cold.
The east wind we got at that time fed through an icy Britain and brought sub zero air and dewpoints straight off the sea sourced East of Britain from a freezing continent and travelling through a freezing Britain.


My final though in this post is the hope that,the models are just working things out and that natures solution which they will eventually see next week will turn on that siberian tap.

nacho libre

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I'd look around for some detailed explanations of the outlook and the blocking that exists, but there's so much dross on TWO and Netweather (e.g. "so does that mean that Bradford will still get snow") that I can't get anywhere beyond learning bits and pieces about this Greenland HP.

So, can anyone explain what we need to see in the next few model runs, as there's lots pointing to a downgrade for me.

Does anyone really think that the models are running on reduced data? Most sources of data are quite automated I thought.

those who have a bias towards cold weather tend to highlight this missing data because they feel it can spoil their wishes. missing data could easily indicate mild weather too.

the downgrade you speak of is that the atlantic looks like taking over around the third of January. earlier runs were suggesting the cold possibly lasting for at least a week longer. I'll happily take this longterm downgrade if what is projected to happen in the short term between tuesday and thursday is realised. as darkman says it could be special.

as regards a blocking high over greenland, the nao being negative, and the polar vortex splitting, while all these help in facilitating colder air coming to our shores it's no guarantee of sustained cold weather. for all the talk there is no indication yet of a sustained easterly for us. yes, the possibility remains if the above favourable factors are sustained but again there is no guarantee.

edit: i didn't see the post above mine before posting.