Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

Deep Easterly

Notable ECM run this evening as DM2 notes. Not only does it have snow potential for the central portion of the country, but driving winds and the potential for some persistent and heavy rain for southern areas. ECM suggesting that the main frontal zone will lie close to or over southern areas for the entire mid-week period. Could be cause for flooding concerns.

On an imby note, does not show much precipitation for south Connacht, but was does fall is forecast to fall increasingly as snow in strong ENE winds. Won't happen of course but tis a dream thread afterall...:pac:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Notable ECM run this evening as DM2 notes. Not only does it have snow potential for the central portion of the country, but driving winds and the potential for some persistent and heavy rain for southern areas. ECM suggesting that the main frontal zone will lie close to or over southern areas for the entire mid-week period. Could be cause for flooding concerns.

On an imby note, does not show much precipitation for south Connacht, but was does fall is forecast to fall increasingly as snow in strong ENE winds. Won't happen of course but tis a dream thread afterall...:pac:

paddy1 have you ever considered if the snow won't come to you, you'll go to it:p i think the snow coming so near to you but not making it there, is just god's way of punishing you for living in Tuam.
:pac:

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

god's way of punishing you for living in Tuam.
:pac:

Seriously though, I have already missed out the snow event from the north, so it follows that I should miss out on a snow event from the south. Stuck between a rock and a very hard place sometimes.

we've just had about 20 mins of good hard rain here in Lucan, so heavy I thought it was hailstones at first.
over now.
Does anyone know if its due to freeze tonight?

Deep Easterly

Latest ECM at 216hrs:



6th January 1963:


:pac:

lucernarian

One of those charts has cold air derived from northern scandanavia.

The other...

From northern France:rolleyes:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

. Stuck between a rock and a very hard place sometimes.

as i've said to you before it's the ninth circle of hell:P finally you've realised this:D

nacho libre

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

The other...

From northern France:rolleyes:

but northern france can be quite cold in january you know.:P

i remember standing on a hill side in Boulogne and an easterly wind was blowing that was nearly as fierce as anything i experienced in eastern Russia

Deep Easterly

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

One of those charts has cold air derived from northern scandanavia.

The other...

From northern France:rolleyes:

Jan 63 air source mostly from northern France/Europe.

Air source in first chart is actually from eastern Europe

M.T. Cranium

Something else to factor in, there has been some very cold air over northern Scotland that even the current milder spell has not dislodged, and I suspect this will begin to expand through other parts of Scotland and show up to some extent in Ulster as soon as this frontal battleground set-up begins.

This may help to push the critical rain-sleet-snow thickness parameters more towards a continental rather than the usual maritime values seen in the British Isles, meaning, the rain-snow line could be closer to 534 dm than the usual 522 dm, as we are used to seeing in the northeast U.S. where the influence of maritime modification is less significant in marginal situations.

I'm still leaning towards the idea that a messy mixed situation evolves into locally heavy snowfall around the 31st with the way the models are trending, but there could be some last-minute intensifications of the whole set-up that may change the details.

Could mention that there is a lot of uncertainty on model evolution upstream and all depictions past about 30th are highly uncertain and prone to large-scale changes in next 3-4 days.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm still leaning towards the idea that a messy mixed situation evolves into locally heavy snowfall around the 31st with the way the models are trending, but there could be some last-minute intensifications of the whole set-up that may change the details.

i fear you maybe right. we'll only see snow at the back end as the cold air begins to establish itself around the 3ith. just like ireland beating france was too good to be true, major snowfall lasting a day and half is also too good to be true:(

mike65

Just did the charts myself and I see nothing but bad news for cold fiends! :pac:

Okay Monday looks like being nippy and New Years Day but after that it looks like 7-10 range for the S/SW until Jan 8th when its suggesting zero max, thats so far away as to be discountable either way.

lucernarian

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Jan 63 air source mostly from northern France/Europe.

Air source in first chart is actually from eastern Europe

I'm afraid not squire. In the Jan 63 chart, there's essentially an anti-zonal conveyor belt in operation stretching from North Scandanavia and the Artic, as can be indicated from where the lower geopotential air contours are stretching from. The blocking allows the release of lots of artic air into the North Sea.

In the t+216 chart for 4th Jan, the air is circulating around itself essentially. There is ridging over scandanavia, or better put, blocking, which stops the very cold air from coming from Russia or even Eastern europe. The easterly HP is really in deep siberia, with the artic air being unleashed between it and the eastern europe HP.

WolfeIRE

Hi folks,

I hope you had an enjoyable xmas day and stephens day. Had to abandon myc ar today due to icy roads. was NOT pleasant. There has been a widespread thaw across the midwest today although higher ground areas have not thawed as significaTly as lower lying areas.

the intensity of the rainfall that is being forecast will undoubtedly increase the likelihood of snow across Ireland, particularly the middle third of the country. The intensity of the rainfall will be a key factor in light of the not so favourable predicted temperatures (condusive for snow) for midweek. However, should the models over the next 48 hrs indicate a NE wind pattern then we are on for a potentially significant snow event. Cold air streaming from Scotland and scandanavia will improve our chances of seeing snow as by midweek they will have been in the grip of a deep freeze for two weeks. We should also bear in mind that the airmass over ireland, coupled with ongoing less than average temperatures, places us in a unique situation (compared to recent years) with a southern front meeting cold air.

Having said that we can speak hypothetically all night but we really will not know how things are going to pan out until later Monday.

Cork, Galway and Clare should be prepared for potential flooding as water levels remain very high following last month's record heavy rainfall and subsequent widespread flooding.

PS... before John in Limerick or anyone else asks if they are going to get snow in their area, wait until Monday when everything will be much clearer. The snow event that we all are looking may be a countrywide event as much as it just might be a southern event. the next 36-48 hrs will tell all.

Min

I'll be getting in extra supplies of non perishable food and food to stuff in my already close to full freezer.
Better be safe than sorry.

Redsunset

Risk of snow tues night/ wed

warning just now on rte

Deep Easterly

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I'm afraid not squire. In the Jan 63 chart, there's essentially an anti-zonal conveyor belt in operation stretching from North Scandanavia and the Artic, as can be indicated from where the lower geopotential air contours are stretching from. The blocking allows the release of lots of artic air into the North Sea.

In the t+216 chart for 4th Jan, the air is circulating around itself essentially. There is ridging over scandanavia, or better put, blocking, which stops the very cold air from coming from Russia or even Eastern europe. The easterly HP is really in deep siberia, with the artic air being unleashed between it and the eastern europe HP.

They have slightly differing factors I agree. At face value, the ECMWF 216hrs chart looks as if the air stream may come in off N France over Ireland; however, it is wise to look beyond the basic pressure stream.

A tight circulation as per the ECM chart suggests two very different airmasses are clashing. Warmer, subtropical based air reaching as far as N France coming in contact with a cooler polar continental flow. The gradient on the chart suggests deepening pressure only, not actual wind streams.

The wind forecast for the same chart discussed:



Souce: http://www.yr.no/

lucernarian

With respect, I think it's frankly ridiculous to say that synoptics whereby a LP is in eastern europe advecting air westwards is slightly different to a situation where HP blocking is in the exact same region!

I hope I am not being too blunt, but comparisons with that Jan 1963 chart are out of the question. The way in which the colder air is sourced is totally different, when you look beyond these islands. I am also going to point out that I'm not just following isobars. That's what I did when I started trying to figure out the weather in primary school.

Deep Easterly

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

With respect, I think it's frankly ridiculous to say that synoptics whereby a LP is in eastern europe advecting air westwards is slightly different to a situation where HP blocking is in the exact same region!

I hope I am not being too blunt, but comparisons with that Jan 1963 chart are out of the question. The way in which the colder air is sourced is totally different, when you look beyond these islands. I am also going to point out that I'm not just following isobars. That's what I did when I started trying to figure out the weather in primary school.

No, why would you be being to blunt? You are entitled to your opinion, as I am mine. . I maintain that the charts, while not being spot on the same, have similar qualities. My response however was not to do with that, but to your assertion that the airmass originated in Northern France, when clearly it is not. What made you think that it was?

Maybe my comparison chart was wrong; maybe one from the 4th January 1963 would be better suited:

Redsunset

Well whatever happens tuesday through to the end of the week,it has at least caught the attention of Met Eireann for them to show red warning triangles for the risk of snow.

The precip is going to be heavy and looks like stalling,so if conditions do eventually favour snow..............well im not ramping yet but it would create a snowfest to rival others.

However, and its a big however,
Where is the low going to track precisely?
Is there enough cold source draw?
etc etc etc...............
so much to get right.

Black Briar has highlighted this and rightly so.

Graces7

Yay.. It seems that today is the only day there is any real chance of getting down from here. We still have several inches of snow lying and the road is solid white ice.

I always keep good stocks of food and thanks to boards even more so, but need gas and coal and a few treats!! Which were going to be bought last week..



Thankfully the pipes finally unfrorze

Min wrote: »

I'll be getting in extra supplies of non perishable food and food to stuff in my already close to full freezer.
Better be safe than sorry.

gally74

it looks like this is going to be touch and go given 1 or 2 degress and maybe 100km, you could either be swimming in rain or getting real disruptive snow,

metcheck in the uk is giving a real dump of snow for gawlay

p

ch750536

No water here, allegedly water levels too low so emergency rationing. I really cant believe that but thats the only story I have at the mo.

No water in the resevoirs?

Graces7

That is bizarre given all the rain this winter.

Water is back here at last, so every bottle and pan is filled now lest it freeze again.

I omitted to empty one bowl of the snwo I had brought in to melt; still solid ice.

ch750536 wrote: »

No water here, allegedly water levels too low so emergency rationing. I really cant believe that but thats the only story I have at the mo.

No water in the resevoirs?

leahyl

if metcheck.com are to be believed Waterford is in for a snow fest on new years eve!

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Waterford&day=4

Redsunset

leahyl wrote: »

if metcheck.com are to be believed Waterford is in for a snow fest on new years eve!

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Waterford&day=4

Don't be looking at those stupid sites.
No human input.

leahyl

redsunset wrote: »

Don't be looking at those stupid sites.
No human input.

Yes I know I was being sarcastic! Maybe I should have put this after it: :rolleyes:!!

Redsunset

leahyl wrote: »

Yes I know I was being sarcastic! Maybe I should have put this after it: :rolleyes:!!

Oh alright:D

but in saying that it might not be far off in predicting some wintry precip this time round.

All other times its very unreliable.


yeah metcheck is forecasting 95.6mm of precip for thursday alone and falling as heavy snow for waterford,i rest my case,now that would be something ha.

Wibbler

The www.met.ie forecast for the next few days is nothing special IMHO. Hard to square it with some of the stuff being said in here.

I think some of the snow starved folks here are seeing snowy mirages in the charts.

Redsunset

Wibbler wrote: »

The www.met.ie forecast for the next few days is nothing special IMHO. Hard to square it with some of the stuff being said in here.

I think some of the snow starved folks here are seeing snowy mirages in the charts.

I quote from my previous post last night;

Well whatever happens tuesday through to the end of the week,it has at least caught the attention of Met Eireann for them to show red warning triangles for the risk of snow

They said it with lovely graphics too if you don't mind.