Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

Deep Easterly

Great ECM run today. Love this chart in particular:



Raw!

gally74

can you explain the legent on the rhs of that chart,

dont fully get it?

nacho libre

so according to jean, Mike65 may see some snow on tuesday or Wednesday and it will stay cold at least until January the second.:P

Deep Easterly

gally74 wrote: »

can you explain the legent on the rhs of that chart,

dont fully get it?

Not sure what you mean Gally?

forkassed

legend on right hand side?

Deep Easterly

forkassed wrote: »

legend on right hand side?

Oh right! The contours just represent temps at 500mb height. General rule of thumb is the higher they are, the higher and more stable the airmass and surface pressure will be.

gally74

the legend 476 to 600?? is it pressure>

gally74

thanks,

the weather at 1.30 was quite good, she defiently warned people and said it would be bitterly cold

darkman2

The models taken together are so far still inconclusive about Tuesday and Wednesday but the risk of snow is definately increasing. The model runs this evening will be decisive I think in really getting a grip as to the exact timing of the Snowfall. The UKMO has widespread snowfall to most by Tuesday night. The temperature and precip charts back this up






Max of 2 - 3C on the coast. Colder inland. So even on coasts sleety stuff should occur on Tuesday night with snow elsewhere.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 26th December, Temperatures around Ireland are close to 2.0c below the December 61-90 normal.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Great ECM run today. Love this chart in particular:



Raw!

If charts like that are still verifying by jan 5th with no let up,the East will be paralyzed..
Jean did what she needed to do in that forecast.
Theres a lot of understandable fence sitting in what must be the biggest and potentially most serious for some initially and most eventually now cast of recent decades.

dfbemt

Kippure wrote: »

Man that was some dress, Holy lord, She is hot. The whole famailly were stunned and silenced when she was on.

Is that the green dress?

If not, anybody got any links where I can watch?

nacho libre

yep tonights runs will be decisive. so everybody fare for the worst(assuming the worst is snow being confined to higher ground till the backend of the front as it slides south)

that said i have some confidence as the bbc chart precipitation tends to be fairly reliable.

Takeshi_Kovacs

If this comes off, will it be an East coast mainly even with rest of country staying dry/cold?

mike65

dfbemt wrote: »

Is that the green dress?

If not, anybody got any links where I can watch?

www.rte.ie/player I'd say

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

that said i have some confidence as the bbc chart precipitation tends to be fairly reliable.

It's a forecaster blend of all models so very reliable as to their current thinking.
Professional thinking.
that thinking may change if data changes so not cast in stone.

Absolutely fascinating to the point of riveting even if it ends up for many being a prolonged rain event with just back edge snow.

If you want to see the bbc forecast that I summarized,it's usually up on TWO before the end of the day.

(I'm avoiding TWO at the moment as I believe it jinxes snow for me.
I avoided it completely last february and look what happened )
Their chart pushed the northern boundary up as far as the dublin meath border and across to Galway with a fairly quick change to snow inland on the 30 miles northern edge of the precip away from the coast..

We shall see.

What dm2 posted regarding UKMO progged irish sea 2m temps at 4c,I hadnt seen before I posted my cautions on this last night and it's clear they are factoring that into the bucket for the graphics they put over Ireland.

I doubt there'll be much snow on the east coast if the current m2 irish sea temp is correct :pac: it says it's 69.9c lol

Graces7

Local word up here is that we will get hard frost and heavy snow.

This was "the boys" ie the old men, who so kindly pushed my wee car back after an abortive attempt to go out for supplies. We got out of the gate and then no further; the roads are the worst they have ever been and even the 4 wheel drives are crawling along; it rained last night then froze, but it has been noticably milder today.

They were headed for mass in a convoy of 4 cars, but apparently did not get there..

Some of the snow has gone, but still a thick layer up here; looks like we will miss out on it next week?

owenc

Graces7 wrote: »

Local word up here is that we will get hard frost and heavy snow.

This was "the boys" ie the old men, who so kindly pushed my wee car back after an abortive attempt to go out for supplies. We got out of the gate and then no further; the roads are the worst they have ever been and even the 4 wheel drives are crawling along; it rained last night then froze, but it has been noticably milder today.

They were headed for mass in a convoy of 4 cars, but apparently did not get there..

Some of the snow has gone, but still a thick layer up here; looks like we will miss out on it next week?

is it falling as rain or snow up with you? falling as rain here feels really warm outside but is 3c lol

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

looks like we will miss out on it next week?

Not necessarally.Though to be honest no one knows beyond even 36hrs now except that the probability of cold enough for snow for the foreseeable is very high..just not totally certain.
At one point the winds veer northerly before backing easterly again which could bring you more snow showers on new years day.

jambofc

cant see this event tue/wed giveing anything but rain
looks like thursday before it's going to be anyway near right for snow
imo
im not being a scrooge just let down to many times and trying to be realistic

Gonzo

metcheck who i normally never believe are calling it rain all week for Dublin and rain for meath up till wednesday with a marginal mix of rain, sleet and snow from wednesday onwards. This could well turn out to be true. Im not entirely confident of snowfalls either considering the way the last cold snap turned out with many areas seeing 0C and cold rain during Christmas Day.

Graces7

Thankyou.. I know now what I am up against and have my second wind!

Never before in a long life in cold lands have I got stuck like today. As kids we would have revelled in sliding on the ice here; what a find such things were.

Sheet ice solid and white. Along miles of road.

Interesting days ahead! And now I have the camera working again.

Deleted User wrote: »

Not necessarally.Though to be honest no one knows beyond even 36hrs now except that the probability of cold enough for snow for the foreseeable is very high..just not totally certain.
At one point the winds veer northerly before backing easterly again which could bring you more snow showers on new years day.

Ignore metcheck always.
Theres no doubt this will start as rain if it comes up.
Question is will or rather when and where will it turn to snow.

the risk is there and yes it could be an all rain event but I'm doubting that at the moment.
The UKMO have been wrong before and right before so who knows.
Let us know either way if the rain turns to snow in meath or if and when the precip gets that far north.

Deep Easterly

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

If this comes off, will it be an East coast mainly even with rest of country staying dry/cold?

More a southern/South eastern half of the country event I would guess. There does seem to be a reasonable chance of blizzard conditions on high ground in the SW (Kerry, Cork etc) during this event. Not I week I would go climbing in to be honest.

Takeshi_Kovacs

and there i was thinking of heading out next weekend to do a bit of hiking.

ninebeanrows

12z more in line with other models.

Shows a extreme borderline situation.

Could be tonnes of snow or tonnes of rain.

Deep Easterly

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

and there i was thinking of heading out next weekend to do a bit of hiking.

Next weekend is looking drier, but that is not set in stone yet.

Redsunset

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z more in line with other models.

Shows a extreme borderline situation.

Could be tonnes of snow or tonnes of rain.

I agree it could go either way looking at it this far out,however i feel high ground needs an early warning advisory now.

Parts of the south west,midlands,dublin and wicklow mountains,basically splitting the country in half ,could see huge accummulations up there.

Just my opinion of course but looking very likely so if it were me i'd be stocking up just in case

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z more in line with other models.

Shows a extreme borderline situation.

Could be tonnes of snow or tonnes of rain.

For the weather system yes.
I don't like -5 850 temps.
-8 850's maybe -7 are part of the usual jigsaw.
Anything is possible.
We'll see.

wow...
I can see why the met office forecasters on the bbc are getting excited!

look at this !

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN120-21.GIF?27-17

Now I'll take that sorce any day,its a bitter bitter tap of air