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Post-Christmas Cold Discussion

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    #212
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    UKMO quite good this evening but it does have the precip further south for Tuesday and Wednesday. However it's after that that cathes the attention


    96hrs
    UW96-21.GIF?27-17

    120hrs
    UW120-21.GIF?27-17


    144hrs
    UW144-21.GIF?27-17


    That's a fairly sustained Easterly with a nice fecth aswell from somewhere in Siberia.


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    #213
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    just about to go sub zero here for the 1st time in 2 days (Currently 0.9c), i cant see the snow coming, perhaps cold nights and days but only rain im afriad. the atlantic is far too warm. when we had rain christmas afternoon it was -3c, so if it rains at that temp here, well, ive never seen anything like it. Still have 2cm's sheet ice on the estate here.


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    #214
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    If thats to be...I can't wait to see Ian mckelwee [spelling] next time he does bbc weather.
    Those charts would put several inches at sea level in the east


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    #215
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If thats to be...I can't wait to see Ian mckelwee [spelling] next time he does bbc weather.
    Those charts would put several inches at sea level in the east

    Unfortunately we don't have access to temperature charts at that range for the UKMO. Id hazard a guess that upper temperatures would be around -8 generally. Doubt the -10 gets in. But that would still be cold enough for snow on coasts. It's a good source but whether the extreme uppers get here in time no one knows. ECM will be interesting this evening. GFS also gives an Easterly blast after 168hrs bit it's consistency has really gone to crap these last few weeks.


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    #216
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deleted User wrote: »
    wow...
    I can see why the met office forecasters on the bbc are getting excited!

    look at this !

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN120-21.GIF?27-17

    Now I'll take that sorce any day,its a bitter bitter tap of air :)
    wow lol , trying to find ireland was like trying to find wally , with all that cold air in the way :D


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    #217
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Better looking charts this afternoon.

    I'm a little peeved by this situation. I haven't really seen synoptics like the current ones before. So I can't really guess what the next progression is. I feel that a lot of the "downgrade" charts are really rationalisations and normalisations by the models. But the rest of the output seems too good to be true in a lot of ways also:p

    So, will the LP track low enough to allow siberian air flood across the north sea and UK? What's going to keep that polar frontal jetstream to the south...


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    #218
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    GFS Control run at 120hrs

    gens-0-1-120.png?12


    Nice fetch of cold air on that aswell.


    Spain will be enjoying typical Irish weather this week :P


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    #219
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    its freezing hard here now, my car is frozen over and air temp is .7c


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    #220
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    snaps wrote: »
    its freezing hard here now, my car is frozen over and air temp is .7c

    lucky you its been roasting here since saturday night around 1-3.5c the whole time now 1.3c and dropping seriously feels like 15c! cannot wait to we get below -0c again!:D


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    #221
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    owenc wrote: »
    lucky you its been roasting here since saturday night around 1-3.5c the whole time now 1.3c and dropping seriously feels like 15c! cannot wait to we get below -0c again!:D

    Roasting? thats possibly the coldest place in Ireland since Friday? today was the warmest day here since Monday, 3.7c.


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    #222
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    snaps wrote: »
    Roasting? thats possibly the coldest place in Ireland since Friday? today was the warmest day here since Monday, 3.7c.

    well you have not been in the cold air that we have been in on saturday our max was -4c and min was -10c or so now its 3.5c so that is roasting for us... friday? we had -4c maxes then!


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    #223
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    owenc wrote: »
    well you have not been in the cold air that we have been in on saturday our max was -4c and min was -10c or so now its 3.5c so that is roasting for us... friday? we had -4c maxes then!

    Tue, wed, thurs, my max was -4c. Friday it started to rise. we had minimums of -11c here for 2 nights on the trot, so i would say clairemorris was in the cold air! i would say you are well inland from colraine to have temps like that?


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    #224
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    UKMO 12z 96hrs in Wetterzentrale format:

    100055.gif

    Looks bitter.


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    #225
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    snaps wrote: »
    Tue, wed, thurs, my max was -4c. Friday it started to rise. we had minimums of -11c here for 2 nights on the trot, so i would say clairemorris was in the cold air! i would say you are well inland from colraine to have temps like that?

    erm no im near coleraine in the countryside and coleraine is a good 10 miles inland around 13 miles but we dnt get effected like the sea like other coastal areas because we are north facing and climbing up a mountain have you been?


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    #226
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,503 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Freezing hard here, roads are already like glass.


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    #227
    Takeshi_Kovacs
    Registered Users Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭Takeshi_Kovacs


    Temps dropping here as well from high of 6 C to 1.3 C atm


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    #228
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    owenc wrote: »
    erm no im near coleraine in the countryside and coleraine is a good 10 miles inland around 13 miles but we dnt get effected like the sea like other coastal areas because we are north facing and climbing up a mountain have you been?

    lived in portstewart for quite a few years, so yes i know coleraine mate!

    .3c now here in mayo, grass is now re frozen!


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    #229
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    owenc wrote: »
    erm no im near coleraine in the countryside and coleraine is a good 10 miles inland around 13 miles but we dnt get effected like the sea like other coastal areas because we are north facing and climbing up a mountain have you been?

    On the other side of the spectrum, I live 20 miles from the sea and am influenced by it 99.9% of the time!


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    #230
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    On the other side of the spectrum, I live 20 miles from the sea and am influenced by it 99.9% of the time!

    Possibly he is NE facing, we on the other hand have everything thrown at us from the west! I hate the Atlantic sometimes!!!!


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    #231
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    snaps wrote: »
    lived in portstewart for quite a few years, so yes i know coleraine mate!

    .3c now here in mayo, grass is now re frozen!

    interesting you are from portstewart? anyway we are below the mountain going over to limavady and coleraine isnt that close to the sea! would being on the eastern side of a mountain have an effect?


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    #232
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    owenc wrote: »
    interesting you are from portstewart? anyway we are below the mountain going over to limavady and coleraine isnt that close to the sea!
    No mate i lived in Portstewart, lovely place. i know where you are mate. No worries. Anyhow, we are going O/T.


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    #233
    LEIN
    Registered Users Posts: 9,936 ✭✭✭LEIN


    Interesting to see 850hpa temps will be warmer over Greenland than Ireland on Thursday. :)

    091227_0000_108.png


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    #234
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Damo9090 wrote: »
    Interesting to see 850hpa temps will be warmer over Greenland on Thursday. :)

    091227_0000_108.png
    Thats what we want.
    Plenty of Waa up there to keep that high going and pushing/squeezing the cold down the other side of the pole via siberia and moscow towards us :)

    On the subject of synoptics-these types of charts were common in the 80's and always delivered snow and low dewpoints to coastal parts of the East.


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    #235
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Local word up here is that we will get hard frost and heavy snow.

    This was "the boys" ie the old men, who so kindly pushed my wee car back after an abortive attempt to go out for supplies. We got out of the gate and then no further; the roads are the worst they have ever been and even the 4 wheel drives are crawling along; it rained last night then froze, but it has been noticably milder today.

    They were headed for mass in a convoy of 4 cars, but apparently did not get there..

    Some of the snow has gone, but still a thick layer up here; looks like we will miss out on it next week?

    you'll start getting snow again if the wind goes northerly on Thursday as it's progged to do.


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    #236
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    several factors to consider for tuesday and Wednesday:

    1 How far North is the front going to go? The bbc don't know yet
    2 How much influence is the easterly going to affect temperatures?
    3 The further north the front goes, the risk of snow increases for lower ground inland
    4 Will the NE kick in sooner and stifle the front or will it allow the front move more as bit further north before being pushed southwards? the bbc weather still think its too early to call.


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    #237
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Really good ECM tonight. Northeasterly and sleet and snow primarilly in the East but in other places at times too.


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    #238
    jenzz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 986 ✭✭✭jenzz


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Really good ECM tonight. Northeasterly and sleet and snow primarilly in the East but in other places at times too.

    hey Darkman - any charts for us to look at:D


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    #239
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Seems to be an enhancement of that shallow Scandinavian low on tonight's ECM for next weekend:

    100057.gif

    Very rare to have a low moving down from the northeast, but that chart has the potential to bring a fabled type snowfall.

    May be dropped in later runs, but something to keep an eye on next week. :)


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    #240
    gally74
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    just came off the main sligo charlestown road, deadly tonight, snow has still no melted here,

    i just hope no one gets killed, at least next week people arent at work etc.


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    #241
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    jenzz wrote: »
    hey Darkman - any charts for us to look at:D


    Here's todays countryfile from the BBC for the week ahead.ENJOY.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/a/u/0/HWp1AKCvzeM


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