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Morgan Kelly - The Irish Credit Bubble

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  • 23-12-2009 5:27pm
    #1
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭


    Pretty good paper here if you have the time to read it

    If not try at least to read the conclusion

    Also being discussed on The Pin


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    #2
    who_ru
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    pretty sober reading, or at least the conclusion is. NAMA is overpaying by billions and we are going to get it in the neck as a result, and despite all this it appears that the Irish banks are still fundamentally dead ducks.


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    #3
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Its a good article- but ultimately, there is nothing new there. Its nice to see it in black and white though.......


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    #4
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    my comments in parallel thread
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    nice paper, half way thru now, reads like an obituary to the Irish Economy :(

    great respect for mr. Kelly unlike a certain other "economist" ;), this guy should be our finance minister :p

    edit: this is well worth noting in the context of NAMA

    Should lending criteria return to their late 1990s standards, our results indicate that
    the prices of new houses and commercial property will return to an equilibrium two thirds
    below their peak levels, with larger falls possible for secondhand property. This means that,
    supposing residential prices have already fallen 40 per cent from peak, prices still have to fall
    by about half from their present levels    . Were prices then to grow in line with real incomes,
    at around 2 per cent per year, it will take about 50 years for real prices to return to their
    2006 peaks    .

    oO


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