who will you vote for in the next elections ?,

The Volt

irish_bob wrote: »

people who say things like this must believe that it is possible for the state to ensure that every single citizen is categorically protected from whatever negative consequences may confront people , the reality is that thier is no mother that can protect you at all times and people have to be responsible for themselves for the most part , the ( so called vulnerable ) are extremley well looked after in this country , we have a phenomenolly generous wellfare state , it is only due to our left wing media ( i believe ) that so many have been conditioned into thinking otherwise , when the hard facts are looked at , no one could possible believe the less well off are not well supported

So no one has any trouble getting hospital beds, no one is being threatened with evacuation, homelessness isn't an issue. I believe we can judge a society on how it looks after the sick, the weak, the old. On that basis I don't think we can be very proud of ourselves.

Podman

A lot of people seem to think that if they repeat something often enough, it will become true.
A lot of people think that if the broadsheet newspaper says it, it must be true.
A lot of people think they are in the majority.
A lot of people want to be told what to think.
A lot of people are cracked.

Rev. BlueJeans

My problem with Kenny, although he seems a thoroughly nice guy, and also anecdotally so, is that he relies on those around him, and is afraid to tack the hard line and capitalise on so many issues that he could have raised in the last two years alone.

I've come to see a Labour alternative as even worse-Gilmore's answer to the budget was to pander to the unions, and Burton was painful to watch in the dail, post-budget (although Bruton was little better, at least they stayed to listen to him).

I'd tend toward FG, but with grave reservations. BL was going the right way, and now has my utmost sympathy and that of the country for his own grave circumstances, but I can't see him continuing in the role, or even if he does, tackling the banks os the higher earners (the DoF change of tack on paycuts for the higher echelons, mar shampla).

evercloserunion

irish_bob wrote: »

if fine gael play thier cards right , only one thing can stop them forming a goverment without labour , enda kenny , he is what is holding them back from the big breakthrough , the swing vote has entirely abandoned fianna fail and the swing vote won it for them in 2007 but a sizeable number of it sees kenny as a real turn off

Bullsh*t. FG need Labour.

View

evercloserunion wrote: »

Bullsh*t. FG need Labour.

If a general election were to be held soon, then based on the current set of opinion polls, FG would probably end up in FF's position in the past few Dail - namely, being able to form a coalition with just about anyone. FF, on the other hand, would have in effect traded places with FG and would need Labour plus possibly others to have any prospect of forming a Government.

Podman

If Irish politics was food, there would be peas, broccoli, lettuce and cabbage.
What I wouldn't give for a bit of tomato.

Cork Boy

It is my firm belief that the next government should be formed by a single party.

FG are the only party in a position to do so therefor I will be voting FG and I will not be giving anyone else preference votes. (I am not a member of any party btw).

To those who say Kenny will prevent this happening I don't believe this will be the case as I think/hope they will run a campaign strategy based on the FG Team of Lee, Bruton, Leo, et al.

This would reflect Kenny's style of leadership, i.e. he will be more of a spokesman than anything else, happy to let his ministers do their jobs.

I call on all of you to give serious thought to endorsing the above.

I also realise other parties have their core votes who will not be swayed and i welcome them to oppose me and argue with me but please do so in a constructive manner.

Thank you for reading my post.

Flamed Diving

Cork Boy wrote: »

Thank you for reading my post.

Very presumptive of you.

evercloserunion

View wrote: »

If a general election were to be held soon, then based on the current set of opinion polls, FG would probably end up in FF's position in the past few Dail - namely, being able to form a coalition with just about anyone. FF, on the other hand, would have in effect traded places with FG and would need Labour plus possibly others to have any prospect of forming a Government.

So who would there be? Greens would likely be wiped out. Any ex-PDs and most independents wouldn't do it as they have FF in their blood (and independents alone probably wouldn't make up the numbers anyway). SF and FG would be an even odder mix than than FG Lab.

The fact of the matter is that
a) FG would not make get the numbers to get an overall majority, and probably wouldn't be strong enough to rely on a couple of independents either. Even now at their peak they are not as strong as FF were. And that's in the poll numbers; history shows that FF tend to perform better than the polls suggest in elections.
b) Even if FG were in a position to ally themselves with one of a number of parties (which is the best they can reasonable hope for), there is nothing to suggest that they wouldn't go with Labour, as Labour are the best option (the best of a bad lot, from FG's perspective). Independents would be too unstable and FF-leaning and SF are just like Labour only more extreme and with a dodgy history.

I'll say it again, FG need Labour.

evercloserunion

Cork Boy wrote: »

It is my firm belief that the next government should be formed by a single party.

FG are the only party in a position to do so therefor I will be voting FG and I will not be giving anyone else preference votes. (I am not a member of any party btw).

To those who say Kenny will prevent this happening I don't believe this will be the case as I think/hope they will run a campaign strategy based on the FG Team of Lee, Bruton, Leo, et al.

This would reflect Kenny's style of leadership, i.e. he will be more of a spokesman than anything else, happy to let his ministers do their jobs.

I call on all of you to give serious thought to endorsing the above.

I also realise other parties have their core votes who will not be swayed and i welcome them to oppose me and argue with me but please do so in a constructive manner.

Thank you for reading my post.

You can hope for an overall majority, but I am of the opinion that it won't happen. When was the last time we had an overall majority in Ireland? Not since Labour entered as a serious challenger for government surely? I think if you wanted an overall majority you would either have to switch to the English first-past-the-post voting system, or one of the three main parties would have to essentially disappear, and that is not happening. As I said in the last post, the very fact that FF could not manage an overall majority at the height of the boom says it all.

In any case I could never vote with the intention of giving FG an overall majority, I fear that without Labour to keep them in check (and maybe even with Labour) they would be very right-wing.

Cork Boy

evercloserunion wrote: »

In any case I could never vote with the intention of giving FG an overall majority, I fear that without Labour to keep them in check (and maybe even with Labour) they would be very right-wing.

First off, thank you for giving an actual reason as to why you disagree as opposed to the usual catchall statements full of fluff and no substance.

FG alone would probably be fairly right wing, but you can't please everyone and any party that tries to is full of ****e to be honest.

I do honestly think though they'll be able to secure a majority as right wing seems to be what most people are looking for judging by the polls and posters on this site also.

Lenhian was widely praised for what was a very right-leaning budget after all.

irish_bob

Voltwad wrote: »

So no one has any trouble getting hospital beds, no one is being threatened with evacuation, homelessness isn't an issue. I believe we can judge a society on how it looks after the sick, the weak, the old. On that basis I don't think we can be very proud of ourselves.

most homeless people are addicts of some kind , were you to raise the dole to a grand a week , theese people might still piss or inject it all away , as for a lack of beds , that effects more than those on very low incomes and i for one put it down to malfunding of the health service , i.e , spending too much paying nurses , doctors and surplus to requirement adminstrators

ghost_ie

irish_bob wrote: »

most homeless people are addicts of some kind , were you to raise the dole to a grand a week , theese people might still piss or inject it all away , as for a lack of beds , that effects more than those on very low incomes and i for one put it down to malfunding of the health service , i.e , spending too much paying nurses , doctors and surplus to requirement adminstrators

I'd disagree that we're paying nurses and junior hospital doctors too much. Get rid of most of those surplus to requirement administrators by all means, and also cut consultants' salaries.

BroomBurner

I'll be voting Green again in the next election. Wasn't liking them there for a while, but am starting to again.

The more they go against FF, the more I respect them (Cowen stating he wouldn't review the banking crisis, followed almost immediately by Gormley and Ryan saying that the government would carry out a review early next year).

Het-Field

evercloserunion wrote: »

So who would there be? Greens would likely be wiped out. Any ex-PDs and most independents wouldn't do it as they have FF in their blood (and independents alone probably wouldn't make up the numbers anyway). SF and FG would be an even odder mix than than FG Lab.

The fact of the matter is that
a) FG would not make get the numbers to get an overall majority, and probably wouldn't be strong enough to rely on a couple of independents either. Even now at their peak they are not as strong as FF were. And that's in the poll numbers; history shows that FF tend to perform better than the polls suggest in elections.
b) Even if FG were in a position to ally themselves with one of a number of parties (which is the best they can reasonable hope for), there is nothing to suggest that they wouldn't go with Labour, as Labour are the best option (the best of a bad lot, from FG's perspective). Independents would be too unstable and FF-leaning and SF are just like Labour only more extreme and with a dodgy history.

I'll say it again, FG need Labour.

After the next election, only Grealish will be part of the lower house of the Oireachtas. He will be an independent. Harney wont stand again, and it is known that it took much HQ persuasion in 2007 to prevent her from departing from public life after the election that year. Grealish will not be able to get a good deal for his constituents by hanging out with FF on the opposition benches. Equally, the vast majority of ex-PDs are not FF in all but name. Only three ex-PDs rans as Fianna Fail candidates in the local elections, and two were victorious. On the other hand almost 25 ex-PD Fine Gaelers, and Indos won their seats. They have no major compulsion towards propping up Fianna Fail in opposition.

The same applies to Michael Lowry, who will side with FG or FF at any given time, when it comes to pushing through his parochial agenda. Maureen O Sullivan and Finian McGrath would join with a Labour coalition. The latter may not be returned, the former is guaranteed a return. Only Healy Rae is a guaranteed FFer, who would be a liability in a Government with FG at the helm. Joe Behan may or may not seek re-election, and is more openly left leaning.

Historical polls are not the same as current ones. Fianna Fail have sat around 25% for the past year, and that was what transpired in the local elections. Even a major swing will not be useful to get FF back into the seats of power.

FG will need Labour. However, it will be a very strong majority. If the local results are borne out at the polls FF are guaranteed to lose second seats in places like Dublin South West, Dublin South Central, Dublin South (i.e Brennan's seat remains in the hands of antother party), Dun Laoghaire Rathdown etc.

Het-Field

CelticTiger* wrote: »

Labour,

A left wing government is the kick up the arse this country needs.

Why ?

To maintain high wages ? To allow the vested interests of the unions hold the country to ransom ? To raise taxes to a level of economic suffocation ? To exacerbate the existing debt by pissing away money on all sorts of welfare schemes ?

Bertie's high level of spending was left wing. Its the last thing we need. We need a scrroge like figure with responsibility over the public purse.

westtip

Just read ANTHONY SWEENEY'S BANANA REPUBLIC. I don't think I will ever vote FF again in my life.

irish_bob

ghost_ie wrote: »

I'd disagree that we're paying nurses and junior hospital doctors too much. Get rid of most of those surplus to requirement administrators by all means, and also cut consultants' salaries.

of course you believe our nurses should be the highest paid in the EU , were nurses in ireland earning 100k per year instead of 50 k on average , the majority of people would still say they were not being paid enough , nurses are the most sacred of sacred cows in this country

p.s , our consulstants are far too highly paid too btw

P. Breathnach

irish_bob wrote: »

... nurses are the most sacred of sacred cows in this country ...

Now, where have I come across that suggestion before?

View

Het-Field wrote: »

Bertie's high level of spending was left wing.

You seem to be confusing "left wing" with "idiot".

Politicans on the left need to balance the state's books just as much as other politicans. You can't deliver services to the public, if you bankrupt the state.

PS: The state didn't end up tottering on the brink of bankruptcy after Ruairi Q's stint as Minister of Finance. He ran a much tighter ship than his two successors.

IronMan

I will be voting for FG. While Enda Kenny may not be the most inspiring of leaders, I do get the feeling he has integrity, a virtue this country needs in spades.
Couple that with people such as Richard Bruton, George Lee, Leo Varadkar, and James Reilly and I think there is the making of a solid if not quite spectacular government. In an ideal world, I would prefer if FG didn't have to go into power with Labour, even though the rainbow was a solid government in hindsight.

View

evercloserunion wrote: »

So who would there be? Greens would likely be wiped out. Any ex-PDs and most independents wouldn't do it as they have FF in their blood (and independents alone probably wouldn't make up the numbers anyway). SF and FG would be an even odder mix than than FG Lab.

The fact of the matter is that
a) FG would not make get the numbers to get an overall majority, and probably wouldn't be strong enough to rely on a couple of independents either. Even now at their peak they are not as strong as FF were. And that's in the poll numbers; history shows that FF tend to perform better than the polls suggest in elections.
b) Even if FG were in a position to ally themselves with one of a number of parties (which is the best they can reasonable hope for), there is nothing to suggest that they wouldn't go with Labour, as Labour are the best option (the best of a bad lot, from FG's perspective). Independents would be too unstable and FF-leaning and SF are just like Labour only more extreme and with a dodgy history.

I'll say it again, FG need Labour.

Good points but were current opinion poll ratings reflected in a general election, we would be in a whole new political landscape.

There are a lot of seats - think rural 3-seaters - where FF pick up the 3rd seat as they have polled stronger than FG. Typically, those constituencies break 1 FF, 1 FG and FF take the last seat over the FG candidate because as the "Others" are eliminated the FF candidate's lead over the FG candidate is wide enough that they win.

Based, on the current opinion poll figures, that second FF seat is at risk. The question then is who wins it? Based on the opinion poll numbers and their organisational strength, I'd guess we could see a fair few of those returning 2 FG and 1 FF in a lot of cases. Alternatively, if Labour, SF or Independents are well organised in the relevant local constituencies, they might pick up those 3rd seats as ex-FF voters choose them over "crossing the line" and voting FG.

Of those two parties, Labour would seem to be better placed based on the opinion polls and we might see a "Spring tide" working in their favour. Likewise, I suspect SF may do better than expected as they have better local organisations in some rural areas than Labour (much like the PDs managed to increase their seats on occassion even though their vote varied by only a small amount).

For 4 seaters, I don't see much change except perhaps in the order of placement of the seats - i.e. FF take the last seat rather than FG. Altough, there is an outside chance of some seats breaking FG 2, FF 1 and Lab/SF/Other 1.

With 5 seaters - which are often more urban constituencies with a greater likelihood of a swing vote - I have no idea of how they'd break down. I'd guess FG would be almost guarenteed a second seat, FF 1 for sure and Labour 1 seat unless they have a really poor local organisation. What then? Who gets the last seat?

I have no idea. Probably FF take a second seat as the outgoing TD-factor combined with a good local organisation works in their favour. Alternatively, if people are in an "anyone but FF" mood, we could have a repeat of the European elections in Dublin where Joe Higgins essentially won by default over Eoin Ryan and Mary-Lou McDonald. If that is the case, who knows what the next Dail would look like?

Personally, I don't believe the Greens will be wiped out altough they will lose seats. Also, I have a horrible feeling we may see more independents.

After that - at a guess - FG the largest party but in need of support to form a Government, FF the second largest, Labour much stronger, SF stronger and the Greens hanging in there.

Labour would appear to have the whip hand in that scenario. The question for Labour is what would suit them best?

FF would be absolutely dependent on them. FG though not so.

FG, I suspect, won't have forgotten what happened after the 1992 election where they took Labour support for granted. As such, they'd be fools if - depending on the numbers - FG didn't at least consider SF as a possible partner (and/or the Greens and/or Independents if necessary). It would be a very strange combination at first glance but if FF and the PDs managed to bury their hatchets in the past, I'd be surprised if the same couldn't happen this time.

It'll be "interesting" to see what the next Government will be.

The Volt

I think everyone In the Labour Party is preparing to be in government in 2012. The thing is, the last time they came out of government they ended up with 15% of the vote and 85% of the blame.

Republic_of_Now

If I could vote in the next general election?
I'd rather stick to local politics, George Lee is quite the representative but if Alex White ran again then I may go with himself.

As far as the country is concerned, the Greens have not made the impact that a 'Green' party should have and Fianna Fáil seem to be a waste of a vote. No way do I want Kenny in charge of the country, i'd say Labour are the best of the worst. Where are the PDs when you need them?

Nehaxak

Republic_of_Now wrote: »

Where are the PDs when you need them?

They all post on stormfront these days.

Liam Byrne

Republic_of_Now wrote: »

Where are the PDs when you need them?

I remember asking this back when the first of the FF corruptions came to light.

They were nowhere in sight then, and they got their just rewards by being decimated.

The two-faced Greens - and hopefully FF themselves - are headed towards the same fate.

Het-Field

Nehaxak wrote: »

They all post on stormfront these days.

Its a shame that boards.ie has probably closed it's poll for "Stupidest post of the Year 2009"

evercloserunion

Nehaxak wrote: »

They all post on stormfront these days.

I'm no fan of the PDs but racists they are not.