Boards forecast contest for 2010 -- January

M.T. Cranium

Your long-range forecast for January, 2010
______________________________________

As mentioned, the forecast contest will be slightly redesigned to seek more skill and less blind luck. There is still one bonus question worth 10% that will likely be something of a toss-up, but even there, you have to have some idea of the prevailing pattern to score points there.

I had a thread open for 2-3 weeks seeking input and discussion, and while there was not much of either, I assume that people interested in the contest have read the suggestions for a slight re-tooling of the project, and from their lack of protests, were neutral or mildly in favour.

So here's what we will be doing in the monthly forecast contest in 2010, starting with January, and consider this your call for forecasts. I don't want to start off by penalizing or excluding people, so I will see how the turnout looks by 31 Dec and announce a final cut-off time then. For the rest of the year it will be end of the first day of the month. But with the holidays and possible bad weather looming, I would like to start with a good turnout, and I may extend the deadline to end of 2nd just this one time, unless I figure all the likely suspects are in already.

Okay, then, here's where you can turn on control C if that's what you do (and I know it is) ...

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

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PM me if you have any questions about the contest, or post them here especially if you think others may have the same questions. It's all for a bit of fun and friendly competition, and good luck to all who choose to enter.

I will take a suggestion and change slightly the convention established in 2009 for the annual competition, to be eligible to win that, you will need to enter at least ten of the twelve months, and the winners will be chosen from the average of their ten best scores for the year. If you miss two months, you won't be able to drop any clunkers, if you miss one month, you have one free pass. This will reward our more faithful posters but also give no incentive for missing the last forecast(s) of the year. Not that anyone ever did.

Oh yes, and Happy Christmas or joyous whatever you are celebrating besides.

nacho libre

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.5c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

11.9c

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-6.3

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
90 per cent of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

110 per cent above normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

78 knots at belmullet

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Your long-range forecast for January, 2010
______________________________________



(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

Hi M.T.

Just to clarify to everyone taking part, the mean temperature value used in the comp is the combined daily means of 5 inland Met Eireann stations.
Casement; Claremorris, Mullingar; Oak Park & Shannon Apt.
In this case, it will go on the freely available 61-90 data.

Not only does it give us an idea of what to expect each month temperature wise, but it is easily monitored on a daily basis via the Met Eireann Daily Data page by anyone who should have an interest in doing so.

As MT mentioned, slightly lower values will probably be recorded using this method as opposed to last year's one, but values are likely to be slightly higher during the summer months.

Su Campu

Since when did Shannon Airport move inland?? Wouldn't Ballyhaise be a better option?

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Since when did Shannon Airport move inland?? Wouldn't Ballyhaise be a better option?

It is the only publically viewed station in the mid west that is inland, not far I admit, but neither is Casement. Ballyhaise I would use gladly, but there is no 61-90 average for the station. Birr would have been my first choice over Shannon, but sadly it has ceased to be.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It is the only publically viewed station in the mid west that is inland, not far I admit, but neither is Casement. Ballyhaise I would use gladly, but there is no 61-90 average for the station. Birr would have been my first choice over Shannon, but sadly it has ceased to be.

Ah OK, they do have mean temperatures for Ballyhaise (they use it in the Agricultural Data table for the last seven days) but you're only using the freely available means. Gotchya

kindredspirit

1. Mean temp. 4.4°C

2. Highest temp. 12.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -6.5°C

4. % of precip. 96%

5. % of sunshine. 103%

6. 65 knots.

(I presume that I won't do any better in 2010 than I did in 2009. )

Deep Easterly

(1) 5.2c

(2) 11.3c

(3) -8.1c

(4) 139.7mm

(5) 123%

(6) 103knts

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hellboy99

(1) 5.0c

(2) 11.5c

(3) -7.3c

(4) 94%

(5) 89%

(6) 75knts

Danno

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month. 2.9c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010. 12.1c

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010. -13.7

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average. 103%

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above. 92%

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when. 56kt

cherryghost

1. Mean tempetaure = 3.9

2. Highest temperature = 11

3. Lowest temperature = -9

4. % of precipitation = 98%

5. % of sunshine = 96%

6. Strongest gust = 80 knots

nacho libre

i fear i was too conservative with the lowest monthly figure:D

some place will likely see close to - 9 or - 10 out of the next cold period

dasa29

1. Mean tempetaure = 4.5c

2. Highest temperature = 8c

3. Lowest temperature = -8c

4. % of precipitation = 115%

5. % of sunshine = 90%

6. Strongest gust = 50 knots

Redsunset

1. Mean tempetaure = 3.7c

2. Highest temperature = 9c

3. Lowest temperature = -11c

4. % of precipitation = 90%

5. % of sunshine = 125%

6. Strongest gust = 69 knots

Strasser

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.8c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

12.5c

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-11.3

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
85 per cent of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

120 per cent above normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

24 knots at Malin

M.T. Cranium

Please note, for the sunshine forecasts, several entries have said "110 per cent above normal" or similar wording. This needs to be clarified, are you entering at 110 per cent of normal or 210 per cent of normal? Please edit by end of 1st Jan. Also raw precip forecast needs to be converted to percentage of normal.

Here's my guesses for the contest:

1. 2.8 C

2. 10.5 C

3. -12.5 C

4. 80 per cent rainfall (precip)

5. 155% sunshine

6. 64 knots (Belmullet 30th)

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

(1) 5.2c

(2) 11.3c

(3) -8.1c

(4) 139.7mm

(5) 123%

(6) 103knts

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Hi M.T. if it is ok, could I up my mean temp guess from 5.2c to 5.6c. Thanking you kindly.

nacho libre

sorry for the confusion mc. i meant to say 110 per cent of normal.

unforunately i am unable to edit my post. So i'll have to go again.

1. Mean tempetaure = 3.6c

2. Highest temperature = 11.9c

3. Lowest temperature = - 10.9c

4. % of precipitation = 98%

5. % of sunshine = 110%

6. Strongest gust = 78 knots at Belmullet

jd

mm


1. 3.5

2. 10.8

3. -12.1

4. 94 %

5. 103 %

6. 69 knots Malin Head, 30th


and I think Jean Byrne will wear purple with silver trimmings on her first televised weather forecast of the new year :D

Su Campu

Here goes

1) 3.2°C

2) 11.8°C

3) -7.9°C

4) 95%

5) 110%

6) 74kts at Roches Point

M.T. Cranium

We're getting a good turnout, thanks to all ... DE can you possibly convert your mms of precip forecast to a percentage? Thanks, all edits or corrections will be accepted until closing of all entries. I said end of 1st maybe end of the 2nd, but just to be really hospitable to possible new talent, I will hold the door open to end of the 2nd (Saturday 2359h) then we see what actually happens. To be quite frank, if I took the guesses on the 5th it would be about the same, I'm sure. The models quite often show us trends 10-15 days out that aren't even close to verifying when the time comes.

You guys are taking my storm more seriously than I am (in some cases). :eek:

Deep Easterly

Sorry M.T. Stick me down for 100% precipitation dead on! Tanx.

200motels

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.4C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

12.4

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-7.5

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
110 Percent of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

114 Percent of normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

89 knots at Mallin Head

kindredspirit

Hi MT,

Can I revise my forecast?

1. Mean temp. 3.5°C

2. Highest temp. 12.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -11°C

4. % of precip. 94%

5. % of sunshine. 103%

6. 65 knots.

Joe Public

It's time to be a bit different!

1. Mean temp. 1.9°C

2. Highest temp. 13.0°C

3. Lowest temp. -12°C

4. % of precip. 50%

5. % of sunshine. 150%

6. 49 knots. Valentia on 30th

DOCARCH

1. Mean temp. 2.7c

2. Highest temp. 12.2c

3. Lowest temp. -11.8c

4. % of precip. 78%

5. % of sunshine. 110%

6. Strongest wind gust. 82 knots (Mace Head - Jan 26th)

Lumi

1) 4.2c
2) 10.3c
3) -13.1c
4) 78%
5) 110%
6) 88knots - Belmullet

nilhg

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

3.7C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

10.1C

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.

-13.3C

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.

65% of normal

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.

121% of normal

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

91 knots at Belmullet 30th

hellboy99

If it's ok with you MT I would like to revise my forecast:

(1) 3.6c

(2) 10.3c

(3) -10.4c

(4) 94%

(5) 112%

(6) 75knts at Belmullet

WolfeIRE

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Your long-range forecast for January, 2010

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. This is explained in the thread on contest design. It's basically about the same as last year's mean monthly, but derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. You'll find that it tends to be a bit lower than the values we were using in 2009 (by a few tenths). DE says the running "normal" value for this in January is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.
3.3 C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
8.5 C

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in January 2010.
-8.3 C

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.
80%

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above.
112%

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual. MTC in his LRF speaks about the possibility of a storm in the time frame 29-31 January around the full moon on 30 Jan. What's your guess for the strongest wind gust (in knots) at any land station in Ireland during this three-day period? Not for any additional points, you could provide any "mystic" insights into where and when.

68 knots (Mace Head, 11.45pm Sun 31 January)

M.T. Cranium

Deadline for forecasts and edits has now passed, I will accept Wolfe IRE as he's a newbie and let's face it, any real idea of the monthly mean, monthly max and eventual outcomes of most other variables here are about as obscure as they could possibly be -- sure looks like one of the coldest Januaries since about 1987 at least (perhaps DE could let us know what Jan 1987, 1982, 1979 and 1963 produced for the mean temp we are using in this comp, plus any other Jans colder than say 3.0 in recent times? Just as a guide. )

All revisions before this post accepted. Strasser, are you in for 110 or 210 per cent of normal sunshine?