Boards forecast contest for 2010 -- January

Joe Public

Have a look at these archives

http://www.dx3webs.com/81/Irelandmeantemp.php

It appears that The Vale of Ancholme Technology College for North Lincolnshire LEA pulled data from http://www.metoffice.com/climate/uk/ and imported into a database. Not all their queries work so possibly it's a work in progress or maybe that's as much appears on the website.

jd

jd wrote: »

and I think Jean Byrne will wear purple with silver trimmings on her first televised weather forecast of the new year :D

Black with Purple , close

M.T. Cranium

Your forecasts
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A new feature this month ... a review of all the forecasts submitted. I have arranged them by mildest to coldest in terms of the monthly average predicted (using our new index supplied by Deep Easterly). The various other forecasts are listed along with that monthly call.

Forecaster ......... Mean .... Max ... Min ... %rain ... %sun ... wind kts 29-31
________________________________________________________________


Deep Easterly ....... 5.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.1 ..... 100 ..... 123 ..... 103
Dasa29 ................. 4.5 ...... 8.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 115 ...... 90 ...... 50
Fionagus .............. 4.2 ..... 10.3 ..... -13.1 ..... 78 ..... 110 ...... 88
Cherryghost ........... 3.9 ..... 11.0 ..... -9.0 ...... 98 ...... 96 ...... 80
Strasser ............... 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 85 ..... 120 ...... 24
Redsunset ............. 3.7 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 90 ..... 125 ..... 69
Nilhg ................... 3.7 ..... 10.1 ..... -13.3 ..... 65 ..... 121 ..... 91
Nacho Libre .......... 3.6 ..... 11.9 ..... -10.9 ..... 98 ..... 110 ..... 78
Hellboy99 ............. 3.6 ..... 10.3 ..... -10.4 ..... 94 ..... 112 ..... 75
JD ..................... 3.5 ..... 10.8 ..... -12.1 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 69
Kindred Spirit ........ 3.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 65
200motels ........... 3.4 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 114 ..... 89
WolfeIRE ............. 3.3 ...... 8.5 ..... -8.3 ...... 80 ..... 112 ..... 68
Su Campu ............ 3.2 ..... 11.8 ..... -7.9 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... 74
Danno ................ 2.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -13.7 ..... 103 ...... 92 ..... 76
M.T. Cranium ........ 2.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -12.5 ..... 80 ..... 155 ..... 64
DOCARCH ............. 2.7 ..... 12.2 ..... -11.8 ..... 78 ..... 110 ..... 82
Joe Public ............ 1.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 50 ..... 150 ..... 49

Deep Easterly

As of the 5th January, the mean temperature of our 5 met eireann stations is -1.2c. This is 5.8c below the expected 61-90 Jan average so far. Despite this, I am confident my guess of 5.7c will be achieved when the month is finally over! :pac:

M.T. Cranium

I assume then the 103 kt wind will be a southerly?

Just for interest, the five stations had what sort of average for December, using our old method we came up with 4.1 C but I'm sure the five-station average would have been lower.

Thanks again for offering us the updates and I think it will be more representative, much as I would love to live near Valentia, almost nobody does and for that matter, same with Knock. And those were basically the stations most likely to comprise the old two-station average.

I will keep an eye on the precip and sunshine stats in the ag report to give some running estimates there. Safe to say we (you really) have not hit the monthly max yet.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I assume then the 103 kt wind will be a southerly?

Just for interest, the five stations had what sort of average for December, using our old method we came up with 4.1 C but I'm sure the five-station average would have been lower.
.

The December average of the 5 met stations used finished at 3.0c.

M.T. Cranium

While DE kindly keeps an eye on the unfolding of the temperature trend, I will consult the met.ie ag-met section to see how rainfall and sunshine are doing.

By rainfall, especially this month, we're talking about liquid equivalent of all precip recorded. So far, the average of 13 stations is a measly 24% of average (1-7 Jan) which ranges from nothing at Ballyhaise to almost normal amounts at Belmullet. Most places have only seen a bit of snow, basically.

As to the sunshine hours, those are running way over normal values so far, the average of seven stations is about 240 per cent of normal.

Although DE addressed the temperatures, I noticed that the anomalies at all stations are in the range of 3 to 6 below normal so far. Some could be even lower than that by the end of Sunday, with these bitter cold overnight lows.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at the figures from the second "week" 8th-14th, I note that the rainfall figures for the period averaged close to normal (west was wet, east dry) so that the running total to the end of the 14th would be about 62% of normal, but with the 15th in mind, this is probably already sitting closer to 80 or 90 per cent (to date, not the monthly total).

Meanwhile, the sunshine continued to be above normal, but not as much as the first seven days. This seven day period gave an average of 120% of normal values, and this places the running figure at 180% of average. One thing that means for sure is that the month has to reach 90% even if the sun hardly ever comes out again.

The temperatures are DE's file, but I noticed that they had only edged slightly up as of the 14th and I would hazard the guess that after the 16th the five-station mean will be up to about 1.0 C, it's probably now near 0.2 C.

nacho libre

dear god i thought i'd never hear myself say this but we need a run of several days with temperatures in double figures:pac:

M.T. Cranium

It's nice to have that table of all entries, and it's going to make scoring a lot easier for me to do. We were in some danger of all being too high on the monthly temperature, now I sense maybe not. I think I will score an additional contestant, namely "Con Sensus" from the median value of all forecasts. I've heard that Con Sensus is often top five in any given competition.

Deep Easterly

As of midnight last (the 15th), the Jan mean temp of our 5 inland met eireann stations is standing at -0.5c. This equates to 5.1c below the 61-90 norm. However, a rapid rise in this figure is beginning to occur, which make me all the more confident that my guess of 5.6c as the finish mean will be the correct one. :pac:

Joe Public

Deep Easterly wrote: »

As of midnight last (the 15th), the Jan mean temp of our 5 inland met eireann stations is standing at -0.5c. This equates to 5.1c below the 61-90 norm. However, a rapid rise in this figure is beginning to occur, which make me all the more confident that my guess of 5.6c as the finish mean will be the correct one. :pac:

Are we in for a BBQ fortnight

M.T. Cranium

I just updated the running precip and sunshine figures from the third seven-day interval of the month.

Precip continued to catch up to normal (145% for the third period) and now sits around 90% of normal values -- a totally dry end to the month would drop that to closer to 65%, and a near-normal end would edge it up to about 95%, these seem like the most probable extremes now, so 80% is looking good for the monthly guess.

Sunshine has continued a bit higher than normal but not by as much as previously, so that the monthly total is now about 160% of normal. The rest of the month looks possibly that high or certainly likely to break 100% for the ten days in question, so that I'm thinking 140-150 per cent is the best range for your monthly guess.

Temperatures, DE can confirm this, but the period 15th-21st ran 1-2 C above normal which wipes out a considerable part of the large negative anomaly in place after the 14th. I am guessing that the monthly average is now up to about 2 C for the five stations (from sub-zero earlier). From the models I would estimate the final landing point is near 3 C (giving this period as about 5 or 6). Some colder nights would perhaps keep it in the high 2s.

Will be posting the February thread soon, the bonus question will be max temperatures for romantic Valentia on the 14th, and all the other questions you already know what to expect there.

M.T. Cranium

You may recall that I have added "Con Sensus" to the forecast contest. Con Sensus will always have the median forecasts of the group. Here's where he/she stands in that regard:

Forecaster ......... Mean .... Max ... Min ... %rain ... %sun ... wind kts 29-31
________________________________________________________________


Deep Easterly ....... 5.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.1 ..... 100 ..... 123 ..... 103
Dasa29 ................. 4.5 ...... 8.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 115 ...... 90 ...... 50
Fionagus .............. 4.2 ..... 10.3 ..... -13.1 ..... 78 ..... 110 ...... 88
Cherryghost ........... 3.9 ..... 11.0 ..... -9.0 ...... 98 ...... 96 ...... 80
Strasser ............... 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 85 ..... 120 ...... 24
Redsunset ............. 3.7 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 90 ..... 125 ..... 69
Nilhg ................... 3.7 ..... 10.1 ..... -13.3 ..... 65 ..... 121 ..... 91
Nacho Libre .......... 3.6 ..... 11.9 ..... -10.9 ..... 98 ..... 110 ..... 78
Hellboy99 ............. 3.6 ..... 10.3 ..... -10.4 ..... 94 ..... 112 ..... 75

Con Sensus ......... 3.6 ..... 11.2 ..... -11.0 .... 94 .... 111 ..... 72

JD ..................... 3.5 ..... 10.8 ..... -12.1 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 69
Kindred Spirit ........ 3.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 65
200motels ........... 3.4 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 114 ..... 89
WolfeIRE ............. 3.3 ...... 8.5 ..... -8.3 ...... 80 ..... 112 ..... 68
Su Campu ............ 3.2 ..... 11.8 ..... -7.9 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... 74
Danno ................ 2.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -13.7 ..... 103 ...... 92 ..... 76
M.T. Cranium ........ 2.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -12.5 ..... 80 ..... 155 ..... 64
DOCARCH ............. 2.7 ..... 12.2 ..... -11.8 ..... 78 ..... 110 ..... 82
Joe Public ............ 1.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 50 ..... 150 ..... 49

Deep Easterly

A chart just to show that daily mean anomalies (as compared to the 61-90 daily mean) of our 5 met eireann stations used in the competition since the 1st January 09 up to midnight last:

(Graph based on the combinded daily means of 5 met eireann stations: Casement/Claremorris/Mullingar/Oak Park/Shannon Airport and set against the combined daily average for the 61-90 period)

The depth of the late Dec 09/early Jan 10 cool spell can clearly be pointed out, and certainly stands out when compared to the cool spells of Jan/Feb 09.

It is evident from that chart also that a strong warming trend took place in the first half of 2009 in general, with a gradual cooling during the second half overall. The trend for the last 6 months however, suggests a slow rise again as we head into 2010. Will be interesting to see what effect the current El Nino will have, if any, during this year on the temperature profile in our storm bashed north Atlantic rock.

All data used C/O Met Eireann

Deep Easterly

4 days left of January 2010 and it looks as if it will, like the preceding December, finish significantly below the 61-90 normal. Up to midnight last (figure does not incorporate Oak Park data from the 26th as not updated yet) the deviation figure is at -3.2c. In actual terms this equates to a current Jan mean of 1.4c.

Daily mean temps at our 5 met eireann stations are expected to rise by about 2c over the next few days so I am guessing the final deviation wil probably be around 2.6c to 2.8c. Still very notable, esp as it followed on the back of an equally cold (anomalously speaking) December.

Su Campu

What exactly are the dashed lines?

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

What exactly are the dashed lines?

The linear and polynomial trend lines from the Jan 1st 09 starting point.

M.T. Cranium

Just a note here on scoring when few people are close to the actual value in any of the parameters. In 2009 we only had perhaps two or three cases where the normal marking system (one point off per 0.1 C error) led to anomalously low scoring in general, requiring a mercy rule. But I want to make even the mercy rules objective, so I have decided that the following rules will apply.

First, to mean monthly temp, which is worth 25 points this year. The scores for this must exceed 20, 15, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for the first ten finishers. If at any stage of this progression the actual scores fell below that standard then for those contestants in rank order the scores would be increased to this progression.

For the two monthly extremes that are worth 20, the same logic applies and the standard will be 15, 12, 10 etc.

For the rainfall in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 3% error. This component is worth 15 points, and the scores must equal or exceed 12, 10, 8, 7 etc.

For the sunshine in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 5% error. This component is worth 10 points, and scores must equal or exceed 10, 9, 8, etc, except that the 10 can be reduced to 9 if the error is 10% or greater, which will then reduce the standard by one thereafter.

The bonus question will always be scored in rank order regardless of errors.

I will copy this into the annual scoring thread and people can refer to this if they think they see scoring errors (use of this system will help to equalize the months which is more important now as we have decided to go with your ten best forecasts out of however many you make in 2010).

Final point, because of the new annual system, you'll be playing for two highly coveted prizes:

THE BOARDS.IE FORECAST CHALLENGE -- based on your best ten scores

THE MT CRANIUM AWARD OF MERIT -- reserved for best total of 12 months

The defending champion for the latter is Danno, and probably also for the first one (best ten scores), but there I would have to check the scores of a few other people to see if they had a couple of real stinkers, because Danno probably didn't have a month below 50 if I remember correctly.

Deep Easterly

Have no idea of how the other parameters used in the comp will work out, but it is looking very likely as if Joe Public will be the one who guessed the Mean Temp the closest. As of midnight last night, the 5 station mean is standing at 1.77c (this does not include Oak Park data from the 26th as has yet to be updated). The exact final figure will not be known until this daily figure is updated on the met eireann website, but the finishing January figure will not pass 1.9c.

Congrats to Joe Public on this, and to the others who guessed the most correctly in the above comp questions.

M.T. Cranium

Interesting, looks like the first application of the scoring mercy rule coming up here.

The highest wind gust in the period 29th-31st was 48 knots (which happened on the 29th fairly early in the day at several southwest and west coast locations), and Joe Public also scores the max there with his guess of 49 knots.

Will post the other correct answers and get DE's final figure for the Central Ireland Temperature, then score the results around Tuesday hopefully.

Just a reminder that you have until end of the day Monday to enter the Feb contest without penalty, and all day Tuesday to enter with penalty.

Should remind people that "penalty" in this contest is defined as loss of 10 per cent of points over sixty, in other words, if you enter a bit late and don't score high, then why penalize because clearly no advantage was gained, but from 60 up, I take off ten per cent or reduce to 60, whichever is higher.

I don't recall having to apply it more than once last year, as I've said several times, entering any time up to about the 7th of a given month would not really provide a lot of advantage the way the second half can sometimes change from the model runs vague suggestions.

Deep Easterly

Oak Park data for the 26th has still to be updated on the met eireann site; however, it is 100% safe to say that Joe public is the mean temp winner this month at least. Final chart for January:



It is very unlikely that this missing data will impact on the final Jan 2010 figure, so M.T, it is safe to assume a final mean of 1.8c from the 5 selected Met Eireann stations used in the comp.

All data used in the chart C/O Met Eireann.

M.T. Cranium

Okay thanks DE, since you posted I was able to find the actual value for Oak Park and confirmed the "central Ireland temp" was indeed 1.8 C -- which by the way compares to 3.2 C the old way because of Valentia being so much higher than all the other stations. So our change was timely because this 1.8 value is more representative, I think, of conditions across the country (speaking as the one person reading this who did not experience them).

Moving on, the other values were:

Max 12.1 C at Valentia on the 15th

Min -12.4 C at Casement on the 8th (and for posterity, something like -16 at a few unofficial sites)

rainfall (which included melted snowfall equivalent) 70% of normal

sunshine 182% of normal (!!) with some stations at record high values for Jan

and, the bonus question, 48 knots was the highest wind speed.

---

Using these values I will open up an annual scoring thread later this evening and report on the January scores. Look for that before midnight, I hope.

Deep Easterly

Oak Park data for the 26th updated today, and as expected, did not impact on the overall 5 station mean. So the very final finishing total remains at 1.8c.

Chart tracking the daily combined mean of the 5 met eireann stations for January:



Cold to briefly mild to near average towards the end.


All data used c/o Met Eireann