Band of rain/sleet/snow pushing up from the south 29th+30th Dec - Snowstorm or not?

Driving rain. here.
Looks like a very slow progression to the white stuff.

The only snow about now would be very wet stuff above 2500 ft.
The tops of the galtee's or lugnaquilla in gale force snow would not be nice!

Graces7

No way;. then they cut you off when you cannot pay the bill.

We old ones are allergic to debt. We were brought up before credit cards etc and "hire purchase" etc.

With the gas and the fire you pay as you use and know where you are.

And it is cheaper also. The cooker is gas also for that reason.

Will hopefully be baking today.... That'll warm the house beautifully.

K-9 wrote: »

If you have to use the electricity just use it. Fan heaters are great for heat, better than storage heaters, but yes, dear. Still, better that than freezing in the cold.

I'm back in Convoy but still no thaw. Probably more chance than your goodself though it was -8 in car temps here Xmas morning.

The 2 Robins in Churchill where class. I think 1 was expecting and 1 was very thin. Could be wrong, maybe wrong season for babies. Came up right beside me to get crumbs.

I missed the foxes. Probably far too crafty to come out now! Seen a couple in the Summer time a few feet away, just staring and then wandering off. Beautiful animals. Knowing foxes, they'll be fine!

Graces7

Drifting will then be a real issue; last time it was so still.

Deleted User wrote: »

Driving rain. here.
Looks like a very slow progression to the white stuff.

The only snow about now would be very wet stuff above 2500 ft.
The tops of the galtee's or lugnaquilla in gale force snow would not be nice!

Su Campu

The 06Z Valentia sounding has shown warm air advection at lower levels in the last six hours, with temperatures and dewpoints now above zero up to 800hPa (or ~1600m). Not a snowball's chance in hell there's going to be snow in the next 18 hours :rolleyes:

Su-thats valentia..
Theres been warm air advection there consistently for the past few weeks.

Mothman

Su Campu wrote: »

The 06Z Valentia sounding has shown warm air advection at lower levels in the last six hours, with temperatures and dewpoints now above zero up to 800hPa (or ~1600m). Not a snowball's chance in hell there's going to be snow in the next 18 hours :rolleyes:

at sea level maybe for a while but it is starting to settle at 200m asl in north Kerry

Su Campu

Deleted User wrote: »

Su-thats valentia..
Theres been warm air advection there consistently for the past few weeks.

It's highly representative of the state of the atmosphere right across to southeastern England, which is slowly advecting northwards






Camborne is something similar

Mothman

And considering the frozen ground in many places even the flakes in sleet will settle...

There will be widespread black ice in midlands places that see only a little rain or at the beginning of the spell of rain. This rain will freeze on the surface creating an ice layer on the ground.

Su Campu

Mothman wrote: »

at sea level maybe for a while but it is starting to settle at 200m asl in north Kerry

Yes, you're right, but I was referring to low levels as that;s where I am

Mothman

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, you're right, but I was referring to low levels as that;s where I am

Then you need to qualify that!!!
But I'm the same, I'm fairly clued in to what may happen in my own patch which of course is rain for all of today

If this turned to snow at 200metres in the East,large parts of wicklow from Roundwood down to Rathdrum would see a lot of snow.
I don't doubt that there is some milder air going in as the system travels north.It has to bring it with it but the cold air will win eventually even with the front.

From an imby perspective,there couldn't be any snow round these parts below 2500ft at the moment so uhm...errr we must be milder than north kerry.

Min

I noticed on the NRA website that the temperature has falling 0.5 degrees in the past hour.

Su Campu

Deleted User wrote: »

If this turned to snow at 200metres in the East,large parts of wicklow from Roundwood down to Rathdrum would see a lot of snow.
I don't doubt that there is some milder air going in as the system travels north.It has to bring it with it but the cold air will win eventually even with the front.

But not for a least another 24hrs.

Danno

Johnstown-Cullohill drive was hairy - iced roads taking on some sleet and wet snow.

200motels

Rain here, and temp of 7C.

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

But not for a least another 24hrs.

It appears to be winning in co kilkenny...

nacho libre

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

hmm

according to this there should be sneachta for parts of galway already. i'm beginning to not trust this radar.

mickger

3.5c in Waterford City and raining with a very strong wind. Temp has gone down from 4.5c at 1am.

Graces7

Just taken the dogs out.. and the sky looks like time lapse film.

Great clouds seething in from ??North east; querying it as usually houses here face south for protection, but this seems to face east.

They don't look like rain clouds either :mad:


Interesting as I was on the map site ( see Donegal board) and the wee ruined house up the lane did face south; this cottage must be fairly modern then

The wind would flay thee. Separate skin from flesh.

nacho libre

can anyone in Galway satisfy my curiousity? is it snowing, or has this radar gone wonky:)

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

can anyone in Galway satisfy my curiousity? is it snowing, or has this radar gone wonky:)

Not here! Heavy rain, 3.2c & strong NE wind.

inabina

rain just arrived south dublin, 4.0C, was 4.6 at 7am:rolleyes:

Su Campu

The aviation forecast give no mention of snow for the next 24hrs for Dublin, only a 30% probability (in aviatoin terms an outside chance) of sleet.

Shannon and Kerry have the same low chance of temporary snow from 15Z today,

Long TAFs

(DUBLIN)TAF EIDW 290500Z 2906/3006 07020G35KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 TEMPO 2906/3006 08025G40KT TEMPO 2908/3006 4000 RA SCT006 BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2915/3006 3000 RASN BKN006=

(SHANNON)TAF EINN 290500Z 2906/3006 05017KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 TEMPO 2906/3006 06020G35KT 4000 RASN SCT006 BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2915/3006 2000 SN BKN003=

(CORK)TAF EICK 290500Z 2906/3006 07020G32KT 5000 -RA SCT003 BKN005 TEMPO 2906/2924 09025G40KT TEMPO 2906/3006 1500 RA BKN001 OVC003 BECMG 2923/3001 04017G30KT PROB30 TEMPO 2918/3006 0400 FG BKN001 OVC003=

(CONNAUGHT)TAF AMD EIKN 290604Z 2906/3006 05017KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 BECMG 2906/2908 06020G35KT BECMG 2908/2910 3000 -RASN SCT001 BKN004 TEMPO 2910/3006 0800 -SN BKN001 OVC002=

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE)TAF EGAA 290452Z 2906/3006 05005KT 9999 SCT020 BECMG 2912/2915 04015KT TEMPO 2921/3006 7000 RA BKN012 PROB30 2922/3006 4000 RASN BKN008=

Local Area Forecasts
(GALWAY (CARNMORE)) EICM LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 05018KT TEMPO 1019 07020G35KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1019 4000 WEATHER TEMPO 1019 RASN CLOUD SCT010 BKN015 TEMPO 1019 SCT006 BKN008 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(DONEGAL) EIDL LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 07018KT OCNL 09020G30KT VISIBILITY 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 1619 2000 WEATHER NIL PROB30 TEMPO 1619 -SN CLOUD SCT020 BKN030 PROB30 TEMPO 1619 BKN003 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(KERRY (FARRANFORE)) EIKY LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 07018KT TEMPO 1019 08023G35KT VISIBILITY 8000 TEMPO 1019 3000 PROB30 TEMPO 1519 1200 WEATHER TEMPO 1019 RASN PROB30 TEMPO 1519 SN CLOUD SCT010 BKN015 TEMPO 1019 BKN006 OVC010 PROB30 TEMPO 1519 BKN003 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(SLIGO) EISG LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 07017KT OCNL 08020G32KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1319 4000 WEATHER BECMG 1315 -RASN CLOUD SCT020 BKN030 BECMG 1315 SCT010 BKN015 TEMPO 1519 SCT006 BKN008 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(WATERFORD) EIWF LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 08020G35KT TEMPO 1019 10025G40KT VISIBILITY 6000 TEMPO 1019 3000 WEATHER RA CLOUD SCT005 BKN007 TEMPO 1019 BKN003 OVC007 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

200motels

mickger wrote: »

3.5c in Waterford City and raining with a very strong wind. Temp has gone down from 4.5c at 1am.

It's 7C in my garden, your temp would be more reliable. Do you think we'll get any snow?

force eleven

Light rain here. Cold, dull,miserable. 3.8C. I'm am pessimistic about seeing snow today.Maybe as the cold air digs back in tomorrow, but at the moment, its good night and good luck :rolleyes:

Gonzo

The rain has finally melted the ice that's been on our driveway for the past 8 days. the place is soaking I hope it wont be too wet for it later on if the rain turns to snow. Right now it looks like were a long way from seeing any lying snow today.

nacho libre

force eleven wrote: »

Light rain here. Cold, dull,miserable. 3.8C. I'm am pessimistic about seeing snow today.Maybe as the cold air digs back in tomorrow, but at the moment, its good night and good luck :rolleyes:

don't you dare turn your back on snow;)

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

The aviation forecast give no mention of snow for the next 24hrs for Dublin, only a 30% probability (in aviatoin terms an outside chance) of sleet.

Shannon and Kerry have the same low chance of temporary snow from 15Z today,

Long TAFs

(DUBLIN)TAF EIDW 290500Z 2906/3006 07020G35KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 TEMPO 2906/3006 08025G40KT TEMPO 2908/3006 4000 RA SCT006 BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2915/3006 3000 RASN BKN006=

(SHANNON)TAF EINN 290500Z 2906/3006 05017KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 TEMPO 2906/3006 06020G35KT 4000 RASN SCT006 BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2915/3006 2000 SN BKN003=

(CORK)TAF EICK 290500Z 2906/3006 07020G32KT 5000 -RA SCT003 BKN005 TEMPO 2906/2924 09025G40KT TEMPO 2906/3006 1500 RA BKN001 OVC003 BECMG 2923/3001 04017G30KT PROB30 TEMPO 2918/3006 0400 FG BKN001 OVC003=

(CONNAUGHT)TAF AMD EIKN 290604Z 2906/3006 05017KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 BECMG 2906/2908 06020G35KT BECMG 2908/2910 3000 -RASN SCT001 BKN004 TEMPO 2910/3006 0800 -SN BKN001 OVC002=

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE)TAF EGAA 290452Z 2906/3006 05005KT 9999 SCT020 BECMG 2912/2915 04015KT TEMPO 2921/3006 7000 RA BKN012 PROB30 2922/3006 4000 RASN BKN008=

Local Area Forecasts
(GALWAY (CARNMORE)) EICM LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 05018KT TEMPO 1019 07020G35KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1019 4000 WEATHER TEMPO 1019 RASN CLOUD SCT010 BKN015 TEMPO 1019 SCT006 BKN008 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(DONEGAL) EIDL LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 07018KT OCNL 09020G30KT VISIBILITY 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 1619 2000 WEATHER NIL PROB30 TEMPO 1619 -SN CLOUD SCT020 BKN030 PROB30 TEMPO 1619 BKN003 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(KERRY (FARRANFORE)) EIKY LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 07018KT TEMPO 1019 08023G35KT VISIBILITY 8000 TEMPO 1019 3000 PROB30 TEMPO 1519 1200 WEATHER TEMPO 1019 RASN PROB30 TEMPO 1519 SN CLOUD SCT010 BKN015 TEMPO 1019 BKN006 OVC010 PROB30 TEMPO 1519 BKN003 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(SLIGO) EISG LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 07017KT OCNL 08020G32KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1319 4000 WEATHER BECMG 1315 -RASN CLOUD SCT020 BKN030 BECMG 1315 SCT010 BKN015 TEMPO 1519 SCT006 BKN008 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

(WATERFORD) EIWF LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 291000/291900 WIND 08020G35KT TEMPO 1019 10025G40KT VISIBILITY 6000 TEMPO 1019 3000 WEATHER RA CLOUD SCT005 BKN007 TEMPO 1019 BKN003 OVC007 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

Those TAFs show plenty of potential for snow in this marginal situation.

You seem to be really anti snow today? A negative nelly!

The atmosphere should support widespread sleet turning to snow from around 2000hrs this evening ( possibly much sooner inland and with abit of altitude) away from the southern and southeastern coasts and perhaps 5 miles inland up the east coast.

Precipitation intensity will determine whether you get sleet/wet snow/ good snow.

Its about as knife edge as you could imagine.

Although inland areas with slight height will have some nice totals by Wednesday night/Thursday AM.

Lumi

Nacho, there's a lot more sleet in the mix now. This could be falling as snow higher up & further in from me. Good things may be coming your way

force eleven

nacho libre wrote: »

don't you dare turn your back on snow;)

It abandoned me first!