Band of rain/sleet/snow pushing up from the south 29th+30th Dec - Snowstorm or not?

K-9

Graces7 wrote: »

I know, I know, but they need to learn that themselves, and nothing we say or do can change the weather.

Or how they feel either.

Iced in up here since ??? Lost track! Before Christmas anyways. Sheesh losing track of time here Is it two weeks now? Must be...

The one time I tried to get out the car stuck in the lane and it took 4 men to get it back again.

It too will pass.

Sometime..

Hard for you on holiday though.

The BBC NI site seems hopeful for a bit of a thaw for us. Not sure if it will get that high with you, but here's hoping.

After 10 days and with Christmas over, I think I've had enough! Garten lake and Killybegs Harbour frozen.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2579

They are predicting show I think Tuesday night, Wednesday for parts of the North Midlands and NE.

Timistry

Its raining here. The breeze feels warmish. No chance of snow here anyway. The Midlands are in with a good chance i think, judging by temps and dew points

leahyl

MUSEIST wrote: »

These sort of comments are filling me with confidence:D

Me too!! I will never lose faith....NEVER!! lol!

No but seriously i hope the BBC are right and Met Eireann are seriously wrong!

Redsunset

MUSEIST wrote: »

Wow, both JS and WC think it will turn to snow tomorrow night, interesting.
I dont know who to believe, the met or you guys (who I have great respect for):)

Don't forget me too

snaps

temp rising here in mayo. 1st time today above 0c

Bog Butter

If we do get snow towards the end of the week I think some rain would be good in the mean time to wash away the ice.

ninebeanrows

We expect rain tonight and into tomorrow across the south.

The cold begins to undercut as the front pushes north around midday tomorrow.

Dew points are obviously marginal but always are in snowy set-ups.

During the precip tomorrow dews will be between -1c - 1c

The snow will probably be wet at first near the coasts and then dry up as the cold digs and digs in.

Lots of snow possible from evening.

nacho libre

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

But the Eagle has just said no snow Wednesday either, maybe some sleet and a bit of the white stuff on high ground. That goes right against what's been said around here.

Big call from the Eagle, when i saw even Black Briar forecasting a likely snowstorm, I didn't expect that from RTE.

Interesting couple of days ahead.

given we are surrounded by warm seas and 9 times out of 10 we are the wrong side of marginal for snow, he could well be right but he could be wrong just as he was the time i got 10 hours of heavy wet snow a few years ago when he insisted it would all turn back to rain.

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

We expect rain tonight and into tomorrow across the south.

The cold begins to undercut as the front pushes north around midday tomorrow.

Dew points are obviously marginal but always are in snowy set-ups.

During the precip tomorrow dews will be between -1c - 1c

The snow will probably be wet at first near the coasts and then dry up as the cold digs and digs in.

Lots of snow possible from evening.

That's more or less exactly what the bbc are saying - it shows the snow picking up around midday tomorrow:)

MUSEIST

MUSEIST wrote: »

Wow, both JS and WC think it will turn to snow tomorrow night, interesting.
I dont know who to believe, the met or you guys (who I have great respect for):)

I've a strong suspicion that the Eagle is wrong and that snow will be more widespread tomorrow that he was letting on and certainly wenesday.
A couple of years ago he went for snow that didn't materialise at all and turned out to be a rain even so to be honest good as he is,he can be wrong in marginal situations as can I and everyone else.
Thats what marginal is.

The Darkman 2 model has down graded the snow threat for the next 48hrs though.

The 1923z darkman2 model is available here

I have no doubt in the wide earthly world about the snow threat behind this band into the new year in the East.

mickger

Just checked the BBC forecast for Waterford on Wednesday. It said heavy rain with Max Temp of 9c and Min of 5c :eek:

leahyl

mickger wrote: »

Just checked the BBC forecast for Waterford on Wednesday. It said heavy rain with Max Temp of 9c and Min of 5c :eek:

Really?! That's not what they are showing on the video forecast....

Tactical

Hello Gang,

Just checking back in after the Christmas. Hope its been a good one for you all.

Looks like we're on the rollercoaster again

Any snow in Cork and I fully expect pics from Leahyl

Looking forward to going back through all the posts on this thread as I'm sure they'll make for interesting reading.

Still a good bit of ice on the minor roads in West Limerick.

mickger

leahyl wrote: »

Really?! That's not what they are showing on the video forecast....

Yeah check it out here http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/3074?&search=waterford&itemsPerPage=10&region=world

nacho libre

leahyl wrote: »

Me too!! I will never lose faith....NEVER!! lol!

No but seriously i hope the BBC are right and Met Eireann are seriously wrong!

in my experience the BBC have been far more reliable over the years.
the only thing i really object to about the eagle's forecast is that he was so definite about it not snowing at lower levels at all - which is a risky thing to do in a marginal situation when he knows extremely cold air is coming in. he can't know for sure that the cold air will not undercut the system from the south quicker than he anticipates as it moves northwards resulting in the rain turning readily to snow on Wednesday.

Deep Easterly

Getting quite breezy here but temp hoovering around zero: 0.4c after a sorrid high of 1.6c earlier. Frost remains with an ever increasing wind chill.

Perfect.

Duiske

Min wrote: »

There will be snow.

Theres no doubt about that, but where and when is the problem. That band of precip is moving in from a pretty mild source. Its going to be 12/13c about 40 miles off the south coast tomorrow, and Im just not sure if the temps the rain band will be running into are cold enough (yet) to produce widespread significant snow at lower levels (below 200m). Certainly, the usual suspect high areas will see some atrocious conditions, and there WILL be snow to lower levels on at least the back of the system as it stalls Wednesday evening and begins to move back south overnight. Again tho, how heavy this will be is open to question.
If I was pushed to make a guess I would say that low areas most at risk would be in a line from North Tipp thru Kilkenny, Carlow and into Wexford.
An ideal situation would be to see the system stall a bit more before moving north, allowing colder air to build in front. Then, who knows what could happen.

So, to summarize the above.... I don't have a clue. Its an almost impossible one to call, and to be honest I can see why ME are holding back a little on adding finer details to the forecasts. Very surprised not to hear even the word sleet on the RTE forecast just before 6. We'll see.

leahyl

mickger wrote: »

Yeah check it out here http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/3074?&search=waterford&itemsPerPage=10&region=world

Oh ignore that - it's the video forecast you should be looking at , the video forecast i tell you!:D

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Getting quite breezy here but temp hoovering around zero: 0.4c after a sorrid high of 1.6c earlier. Frost remains with an ever increasing wind chill.

Perfect.

paddy1, are you sitting on the fence;)

although, it's cloudy here the temperature is still below freezing here.

mike65

UK met office via wetterzentral (live image so will change)

Deep Easterly

Duiske wrote: »

So, to summarize the above.... I don't have a clue. Its an almost impossible one to call, and to be honest I can see why ME are holding back a little on adding finer details to the forecasts. Very surprised not to hear even the word sleet on the RTE forecast just before 6. We'll see.

Good post. While it is easier to predict medium term solutions, it is the finer details that become the problem. It has probably been mentioned, but I found John Eagleton's earlier TV forecast very depressing for snow fans from this front. Defo more hopeful towards the end of the week though.

Min

Met Eireann who predicted it would be dry in the cold period in the lead upto Christmas. Some parts of the country had snow, rain, hail and whatever you are having yourself. It was dry at times but Met Eireann were wrong, where were their warnings for the places that got a lot of snow?
I think it was only when the radar showed it was happening, a bit more than coastal fringes....
Met Eireann often change their forecasts, if they do again it would be nothing new.

Our man in Havana

I do remember they totally failed to forecast the big snow of 82. Same again me thinks.

mike65

The light wind is almost mild (relatively speaking) right now, overcast but dry for the moment.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

0.7c here in Athlone down from a high of 1.1c. Overcast but dry. Wind chill would freeze the gonads off a donkey. As has been mentioned Mr Eagleton's forecast wasn't very promising for snow fans. I don't wanna have to go back to work wednesday!

Here's hopin'!

Duiske

Deleted User wrote: »

A couple of years ago he went for snow that didn't materialise at all and turned out to be a rain even so to be honest good as he is,he can be wrong in marginal situations as can I and everyone else.
Thats what marginal is.

.

Seen this myself on a few occasions. One example years ago very similar to yours above. Heavy snow was forecast, got 6 hours of torrential rain. And on the flip side, heavy rain was forecast for the east, and 2 hours before the event bulletins were put out on radio warning of heavy snow. The snow duly arrived during the afternoon and hundreds were stranded in their cars all along the east.

SeaFields

Its raining now in south Kerry.

Light drizzle and a howling northerly wind. Temp is 4c with a dewpoint of 0.7c.

leahyl

Duiske wrote: »

Seen this myself on a few occasions. One example years ago very similar to yours above. Heavy snow was forecast, got 6 hours of torrential rain. And on the flip side, heavy rain was forecast for the east, and 2 hours before the event bulletins were put out on radio warning of heavy snow. The snow duly arrived during the afternoon and hundreds were stranded in their cars all along the east.

WOW! Could this be repeated in the next few days??! I hope so:)

Redsunset

"We are unlikely to escape a major snowfall event"

Have ye forgotten this wonderful quote from the Eagle

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote: »

The precip-band will begin to turn to snow during tomorrow evening across the northern sections and steadily all the band will turn to snow overnight and into Wednesday.

Granted the precip is likely to stay as sleety stuff along the coast until late tomorrow night.

The Eagle is wrong.

And i will confidently call heavy snow for a large portion of the country beginning tomorrow night and throughout Wednesday.

I'll put my cred on it. And will take defeat graciously.

Your confidence is inspiring WC. But I'd rather trust in snowflakes hitting me in the face:p

I'm more going on a hunch and my experiences of living near the east coast all my life, and a knife edge situation like this is too hard to call. I don't know why you'd put your credibility on the line, it'll be bad enough for you if ya see no snow!

I won't put my credibility on the line for this but I'll certainly buy you a drink if there is any lying snow in Dublin City by 9pm Wedesday. Actually, if it snows (not wet snow or sleet) at all by midnight Wednesday at your house (Which I assume is still in the Portmarnock area), I'll buy you a drink for that either. And you don't even have to get me one if I'm right!:D