Cold Spell potential discussion, new year

Musicman2000

Gonzo wrote: »

Are the chances of snow showers off the Irish sea fading? looking at the charts it looks like the winds will turn northerly by Friday morning:(? leaving only a small window of opportunity for snow showers to form? I fear this could turn out to be another north-northwesterly event. Also the system on Sunday looks like its gonna track fairly far north dragging mild air across most of Ireland once again? Hope im wrong.

Looking at the BBC Charts for sunday, its not going north it will cover the very far south of the country before pulling back south again

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Gonzo

im beginning to think once again we'll have no snow in leinster yet again:( none of the charts look promosing for here other than cold dry weather and hard frost. Galway, Mayo, Leitrim, Donegal and most of Nothern Ireland should see a hammering of snow over the next 4 days.

Elmo5

Had a look at the GFS, pure FI, but looks pretty snowy on Jan 4th/5th/6th? all over pasting?

Gonzo

the FI always looks great for Leinster but it always go's wrong, when the winds easterly thers a warm sector over us with wind and rain and just when it gets cold enough the winds swing to the north and were left in a dry frosty spell. It's a sad fact that this cold spell is nearly 2 weeks old and most of us in the Leinster hasnt seen a flake of snow yet this winter.

nacho libre

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Looking at the BBC Charts for sunday, its not going north it will cover the very far south of the country before pulling back south again

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

i wouldn't bet against the next system going further north than expected, just like this one did, and introduce enough maritime air to spoil things once again at lower levels
the atlantic twice has ruined things, and despite what people will say about having faux cold over us this time, it should not have happened on christmas day, due to the potent airmass we had over us at the time, yet the maritime air still had the final say resulting in rain and sleet for most of the country.

out of this current situation the west and midlands could have had a major snow fall in the last 12- 24 hours, but the damn dewpoints and temperature remained just a shade too high. the eagle obviously thought this was going to happen judging by last nights forecast but of course the mild air had other ideas:(

well, at least this time i will definitely not be getting my hopes up for heavy and widespread frontal snowfall

still on a more upbeat note some of us in the days ahead should get snow from the troughs that will come down from the north and north east.

Pangea

Are we looking at a big snow event for ulster over the weekend???

"Heavy snow showers likely over Ulster. Sunny spells and scattered snow showers possible over Connacht and Leinster and mainly dry over Munster. Daytime temperatures around zero. Friday night minima of zero to -6 degrees. Saturday & Sunday: Some sunny spells but scattered heavy snow showers likely….. all areas at risk but most especially Ulster and Leinster."

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

Are we looking at a big snow event for ulster over the weekend???

"Heavy snow showers likely over Ulster. Sunny spells and scattered snow showers possible over Connacht and Leinster and mainly dry over Munster. Daytime temperatures around zero. Friday night minima of zero to -6 degrees. Saturday & Sunday: Some sunny spells but scattered heavy snow showers likely….. all areas at risk but most especially Ulster and Leinster."

NO at this rate this front will still be here tomorrow morning at 10am instead of chilly sunshine!:mad:

200motels

Gonzo wrote: »

the FI always looks great for Leinster but it always go's wrong, when the winds easterly thers a warm sector over us with wind and rain and just when it gets cold enough the winds swing to the north and were left in a dry frosty spell. It's a sad fact that this cold spell is nearly 2 weeks old and most of us in the Leinster hasnt seen a flake of snow yet this winter.

We're the same here in Waterford, not a flake.

maquiladora

I've only just have a chance to catch up and look at the models, its amazing to see the cold conditions with snow potential lasting right into FI in all the major models with no real breakdown in sight at all.


Surely with the cold weather continuing for what looks like at least another week, the chances of something cropping up which gives us a proper widespread snow event must be getting higher?

Pangea

Heavy snow warning for NI for Jan 1st 2010
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Pangea

Hows things for the future, whats the charts like and is there any major snow event on the way, things are quiet on that front?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Hows things for the future, whats the charts like and is there any major snow event on the way, things are quiet on that front?

mike65 could get his wish. so this puts into perspective the talk of this being on a par with the fabled winters of the past

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

mike65 could get his wish. so this puts into perspective the talk of this bring on a par with the fabled winters of the past

What is mike65 hoping for?
A snowfest or a rainy day
Is that chart good or bad nacho?

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

What is mike65 hoping for?
A snowfest or a rainy day
Is that chart good or bad nacho?

he hates cold weather and regularly looks for signs of mild weather in model outputs.

it's bad and the gfs is progging the same devlopment now. still many people visting this forum, especially the new comers over the coming days, will welcome milder weather after a few days of bitter cold;).

as i said if these charts verify it puts into perspective talk of the 2009/10 winter being like '62 and '47. in these winters it remained very cold, with barely any let up, for two-three months.

Deep Easterly

A tropical 2.6c here now and rising at an alarming rate. The milder temp is negated by the strength of the wind though and if felt really raw out there.

snaps

whats going on with the temps, rising here very fast. 3.1c here. Cant remember the last time it was over 3c? Whats happened to the colder air that was going to arrive? Looking at the rish weather network, nowhere in ireland in below 1c?

owenc

they are now in ni the cold air is coming behind this cloud it should arrive by 8am here on the north coast then extend south gradually dropping temps to around 1c then giving us cold nights and sub zero days like tonight -12c i think is possible!

Graces7

K-9 wrote: »

Damn, I nearly had a coronary there. Thought I seen an Arctic Fox!

Graces7

Looks likely indeed...Well, certainly up here!!!:D

Ulster
31 December 2009- updated at 06:00
Today

Bitterly cold, but brightening up with sunny spells. Scattered wintry showers, especially in coastal areas. Maximum afternoon temperatures 2 to 4 Celsius, with strong northeast winds at first, gradually easing.

Tonight

Bitterly cold and frosty, with further wintry showers of sleet and snow. Min 0 to minus 8 Celsius. Risk of ice and freezing fog.

Tomorrow

Bitterly cold tomorrow, New Year's Day, with frost, ice and any for clearing only slowly and lingering on in some sheltered places during the day. There will be some sunny spells, but wintry showers of sleet and snow also. Max. 0 to 3 C.

Pangea wrote: »

Are we looking at a big snow event for ulster over the weekend???

"Heavy snow showers likely over Ulster. Sunny spells and scattered snow showers possible over Connacht and Leinster and mainly dry over Munster. Daytime temperatures around zero. Friday night minima of zero to -6 degrees. Saturday & Sunday: Some sunny spells but scattered heavy snow showers likely….. all areas at risk but most especially Ulster and Leinster."

maquiladora

Met Eireann outlook :

Bitterly cold weather will continue well into the New year, probably at least up until Saturday 9th January.

:pac:

Su Campu

Jean Byrne gave -12 or -13°C in place next week on 98 News a few minutes ago

Villain

That 12z GFS looks cold again past the 9th and 10th???

maquiladora

Villain wrote: »

That 12z GFS looks cold again past the 9th and 10th???

Yeah no real end to it in sight. -5 upper temps over us even at 384 hours.

Useless ECM tonight for the East.
Ok ish for the north coast

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-96.GIF?31-0

Theres a rubbish slack flow full of faux cold and dry mostly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?31-0

On special offer a one day only NE-very cold but the flow is one day...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?31-0

Then back to a useless [away from the far north and north east] ...northerly
It would even be useless in the west thanks to proximity to high pressure.

If these types of charts verify-we're all sunk.
Nothing weatherwise to look foward to bar frost.

Nice but a tad boring.

Wibbler

Deleted User wrote: »

Useless ECM tonight for the East.
...
Nice but a tad boring.

On NW they were mentioning the build up of high pressure over Scandi down the road. Is this the key to unlocking snow for the East?

Duiske

GFS is really struggling with the low pressure area that was forecast to come close to the south coast during Sat night. Even as close as 60hrs the 18z is now pushing it back out into the atlantic.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
Currently having a negative North Atlantic Oscillation

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html



Could even hold into mid january of course the reduction at the end of the chart could also mean its dying out! But the jet streams and weather patterns shift with the sun so I give it mid jan until a fundamental change comes!

Just to update my previous post - the North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to last until the 20th of January at least!!!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml