Cold Spell Discussion [Snow showers hitting east from 4pm] ( New Years Eve 2009 )

Scubadevils

owenc wrote: »

north and east here? ni or north east scotland?:rolleyes:

Ya wha?

ffarrell

Why would I be talking about Scotlland????? North and Esat of Ireland but the republic and the occupied territories.:D

Scubadevils

owenc wrote: »

the met office is a very good weather forecasting programme much better than met ie if thats what your trying to say!:mad:

You should really take a walk around the crisp cold air and chill out lad!

owenc

ffarrell wrote: »

Why would I be talking about Scotlland????? North and Esat of Ireland but the republic and the occupied territories.:D

well you mentioned the met office and they cover scotland too

ffarrell

We call it Met Eireann which covers Ireland both North and South end of story - it is not a British Weather Forecast Service even if just under half of the North consider themselves British.:D

Gonzo

delighted to see most of us got some snow last night, light covering in Meath, about 1/4 of an inch, alot better than nothing at all:)

owenc

ffarrell wrote: »

We call it Met Eireann which covers Ireland both North and South end of story - it is not a British Weather Forecast Service even if just under half of the North consider themselves British.:D

i know that but before that you said the meto and thats what im talking about.. are you from ni? i think you should look that up before saying anything to do with northern ireland on the worldwide internet...

pistolpetes11

As has been said many times , The weather is not an exact science , The met are providing the forecast on the information that is available to them now .

This could change hour by hour the way things have been lately , The experts on here have described the situation best on here, the past couple of weeks by using the the word "nowcast" because thats what it has shapped up to be .

Fair play to the lads , the called it and it has come off ! People were starting to get really annoying a day or two ago whinging because they had not got there snow , I am absolutely delighted now

ffarrell

owenc wrote: »

i know that but before that you said the meto and thats what im talking about.. are you from ni? i think you should look that up before saying anything to do with northern ireland on the worldwide internet...

I sai Met.ie ie..Met Eireann. I am from Dublin:D

rc28

Gonzo wrote: »

delighted to see most of us got some snow last night, light covering in Meath, about 1/4 of an inch, alot better than nothing at all:)

Yes, even though there's not much it's still a beautiful scene today and last night was perfect

Slimity

ffarrell wrote: »

go to met.ie and the updated regional forecast at 13.00 which suggests snow for the East and the North tonight and tomorrow.:D

Thanks, it only forecasts isolated showers for the east tonight.

owenc

ffarrell wrote: »

Apparently the met office has changes its forecast AGAIN and is now predicting heavy snow for the North and East of the country tonight (bit) and definitely tomorrow and perhaps Monday.....they are so erratic....Lots os snow in Castleknock, Dublin...:D

There is were you said meto:D

LookingFor

The current forecast on their site for tomorrow refers to snow showers in leinster and dublin, turning persistent...

That was updated at 1pm.

But in the TV forecast earlier this afternoon it gave the distinct impression that it'd be dry from here on out through the weekend, in the east.

Confusing! I wonder if the TV forecast was working off old info. It looked like a stand-in presenter. I guess the main evening forecast will give the 'proper' forecast whatever that is....

pistolpetes11

Slimity wrote: »

Thanks, it only forecasts isolated showers for the east tonight.

That it does but of more interest is the word persistant that is used for describing tomorrow afternoon.

Lidl were Selling snowboards there a couple of weeks ago, I mite pop in to see if they have any left , There is a good few hills in the curragh where a snowboard would go down a treat !

Regional Forecasts


Leinster
01 January 2010- updated at 13:00
Today

Mostly dry today with sunshine in most areas but bitterly cold; a few isolated snow showers and frost and fog will persist in some areas all day, Winds light, variable or northerly; max temperatures -1 to +4 degrees Celsius.

Tonight

Isolated snow showers again tonight and turning even colder. Widespread severe or very severe ground frost will occur. There will be little or no wind and this will allow patches of freezing fog to set in. Lowest temperatures -4 to -10 degrees Celsius.

Tomorrow

Saturday will be bitterly cold. Snow showers are forecast becoming persistent in the afternoon, with frost, ice and freezing fog lasting through the day in some locations. Winds will remain light and temperatures will rise above freezing only in coastal areas.

owenc

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

That it does but of more interest is the word persistant that is used for describing tomorrow afternoon.

Lidl were Selling snowboards there a couple of weeks ago, I mite pop in to see if they have any left , There is a good few hills in the curragh where a snowboard would go down a treat !

Regional Forecasts


Leinster
01 January 2010- updated at 13:00
Today

Mostly dry today with sunshine in most areas but bitterly cold; a few isolated snow showers and frost and fog will persist in some areas all day, Winds light, variable or northerly; max temperatures -1 to +4 degrees Celsius.

Tonight

Isolated snow showers again tonight and turning even colder. Widespread severe or very severe ground frost will occur. There will be little or no wind and this will allow patches of freezing fog to set in. Lowest temperatures -4 to -10 degrees Celsius.

Tomorrow

Saturday will be bitterly cold. Snow showers are forecast becoming persistent in the afternoon, with frost, ice and freezing fog lasting through the day in some locations. Winds will remain light and temperatures will rise above freezing only in coastal areas.

That regional forecast seems to be the same for everywhere

pistolpetes11

LookingFor wrote: »

The current forecast on their site for tomorrow refers to snow showers in leinster and dublin, turning persistent...

That was updated at 1pm.

But in the TV forecast earlier this afternoon it gave the distinct impression that it'd be dry from here on out through the weekend, in the east.

Confusing! I wonder if the TV forecast was working off old info. It looked like a stand-in presenter. I guess the main evening forecast will give the 'proper' forecast whatever that is....

TBH , I will wait till Deep Easterly,Weather Check, MT, Redsunset,DM2, Nacho, Su Campu, Black Briar ( Hope I have not forgot any of our resident experts!) give there version of how they think things mite pan out .

The lads have been very good with the forecasts/Nowcasts

pistolpetes11

owenc wrote: »

That regional forecast seems to be the same for everywhere

So they are , Hopefully a mistake has not been made !

owenc

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

So they are , Hopefully a mistake has not been made !

yea! cuz i knew -10c was never gonna happen tonight..

Wibbler

I've gotten into the habit of checking the GFS 850 Temp ensembles after each run. It's amazing just how below average the temps are and for how long. Each run shows them gradually returning to normal at the very end of the run. However, each run is later so effectively normal is getting pushed back.

In past winters I've been used to seeing U-shaped dips in these ensembles so this spell is special IMHO.

Supercell

Tonight will be dry in the east, just like its been sunny all day..its going to be cold and extremely frosty tonight.
Later on tomorrow evening and into the Sunday the winds turn north easterly and the east coast again has a chance of showers.

LookingFor

Ruh roh. That's probably the Ulster forecast. Someone was a bit copy-and-paste happy I guess

pistolpetes11

owenc wrote: »

yea! cuz i knew -10c was never gonna happen tonight..

Not too sure about that down my way , Temp is still at -1.3 and I reckon she will start a dowward trend in the next hour or two Dp here is -2.3

Snowaddict

owenc wrote: »

yea! cuz i knew -10c was never gonna happen tonight..

Owen,

It is still quite possible, even likely that at least -8C, quite possibly -10C could well be reached inland tonight. -10C will be reached over the next few days, quite possibly broken also with lower minima possible.

With regard to the regional forecasts, they are actually different. If you look at Munster and Connacht, there is no mention at all of persistent snowfall, these also having been updated at 13.00 Hours.

I am also surprised by these Met Eireann updates. Any snowfall tomorrow will depend upon the exact track of the Polar Front Trough/Shallow area of low pressure moving down from the North Sea and Scotland.

Present Hi-Res Hirlam guidance indicates a track down through the ''central spine'' of the UK, as does the 06HRS UKMO NAE Hi Res Model, however the UKMO FAX Chart, last updated this morning, did indicate the potential for snowfall in these areas as mentioned by Met Eireann in the latest update:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=36&carte=2000

The latest 12Z GME/DWD Model also takes the low down over the UK so it will be interesting to read the updates later.

Now into Sunday, with 850mb temperatures of approximately -8 to -9 across the country, combined with an undercutting complex low to the south, there is every potential for renewed snow showers into Eastern areas. Inland penetration may also be greater than has been in the past 24 hours because the flow will be due easterly at first, later backing northeasterly as the undercutting motion continues to the south. Thereafter, an unstable Easterly, trending Northeasterly flow becomes established over the country.

owenc

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Not too sure about that down my way , Temp is still at -1.3 and I reckon she will start a dowward trend in the next hour or two Dp here is -2.3

well its -3c here but since we are getting cloud i doubt it... i will just have to see how temperatures drop in the next 2 hours... what about the snow event in ulster tonight are we not getting any snow now?:(

owenc

Snowaddict wrote: »

Owen,

It is still quite possible, even likely that at least -8C, quite possibly -10C could well be reached inland tonight. -10C will be reached over the next few days, quite possibly broken also with lower minima possible.

With regard to the regional forecasts, they are actually different. If you look at Munster and Connacht, there is no mention at all of persistent snowfall, these also having been updated at 13.00 Hours.

I am also surprised by these Met Eireann updates. Any snowfall tomorrow will depend upon the exact track of the Polar Front Trough/Shallow area of low pressure moving down from the North Sea and Scotland.

Present Hi-Res Hirlam guidance indicates a track down through the ''central spine'' of the UK, as does the 06HRS UKMO NAE Hi Res Model, however the UKMO FAX Chart, last updated this morning, did indicate the potential for snowfall in these areas as mentioned by Met Eireann in the latest update:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=36&carte=2000

The latest 12Z GME/DWD Model also takes the low down over the UK so it will be interesting to read the updates later.

Now into Sunday, with 850mb temperatures of approximately -8 to -9 across the country, combined with an undercutting complex low to the south, there is every potential for renewed snow showers into Eastern areas. Inland penetration may also be greater than has been in the past 24 hours because the flow will be due easterly at first, later backing northeasterly as the undercutting motion continues to the south. Thereafter, an unstable Easterly, trending Northeasterly flow becomes established over the country.

yes i expect at least -6c here anyway but i am not quite sure about -10c the nearest station is reporting -1c but it is -3c and on the way down will have to see hopefully we shall get loads of snow tonight

paulhac

This might convince you from Met.ie:Weather Warning

Issued at 01 January 2010 - 14:20
Weather warning
Widespread icy condtions Friday evening and night - especially where snow is lying (mainly in the east and southeast, also parts of the northwest). Fog in places also.l Air temperatures falling to - 4 C or below in many areas, reaching - 8 to - 10 C locally. Dry in most places. Isolated wintry showers in the northwest - then, patchy rain, sleet or snow moving southwards across Ulster and north Connacht late in the night or on Saturday morning.

BotanyQueen

The snow is too powdery; unable to make a snowman at all...

paulhac

BotanyQueen wrote: »

The snow is too powdery; unable to make a snowman at all...

Thanks for that important update:D

inabina

childen in my garden stealing snow:eek:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

inabina wrote: »

childen in my garden stealing snow:eek:

THis is why I went out and pelted them with snowballs last night

It was a warning !!!!