Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

darkman2

Time for the next thread. Where is WC btw? Tonight roads will remain hazardous and become worse as temperatures drop well below freezing. Tomorrow little melt or no thaw is expected where snow has fallen so it is likely to remain.

Over the weekend wintry showers effecting the North and Northwest and maybe the East later (though these are unlikely to be snow at this stage due to slightly milder air temporarilly). Eleswhere dry. Extremely cold at night and very cold by day with temperature barely above freezing and well below at night.

Next week sees the coldest and most disruptive phase yet of the cold weather with Ice and Snow becoming widespread generally but particularly the East.

ninebeanrows

Well the east coast got a taste of things last night.

I got about a cm but i hear other people have good coverings.

Amazing how the cities transport system can breakdown so easily, where the hell were the gritters?

We are likely embarking into a deep cold spell.

Things look like continuing freezing for at least 10 days and who knows when the spell will end.

Looking at the next few days, there will be a weak band moving south tomorrow with some sleet and snow likely, then we have winds veering from North to East for 7 days or more.

There could be snow on the ground in Dublin for weeks.

Stay warm folks.

Snowaddict

It's certainly looking potentially quite severe alright. Tuesday is a day to watch in particular because not only will there be a cold front coming south, but potential also shown for two polar troughs to move southwestwards across the country.

With regard to the weekend, on Sunday in particular we have an area of Sub -8 850mb air moving down across the country, so I think that Sunday should be fine for snowfall in Eastern areas, if any convective developments were to occur.

850mb temperatures look bitterly cold for the period, as do maxima and minima temperatures. It's quite likely that more than one location will get double digit minima temperatures.

From mid week onwards, there is also the risk of a more pronounced due easterly flow, leading to further inland penetration of snow shower activity.

12Z GEFS Ensembles, 850mb temperatures remain at -8 to -9 by Saturday 9th. In terms of the evolution, there is a possibility of a link up between a somewhat declining Greenland High and a surface pressure rise over Scandinavia much later in the coming week, prolonging the cold spell - However we will have to see a favourable jet axis for this.

So definitely a bitterly cold week in store, with an increasing risk of snowfall.

its getting cloudy, like night night kind of in Lucan, we might get more snow .

darkman2

Better merge this thread with this one

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055784248

maquiladora

0c here in Waterford City already. Thats the coldest it's been down here this early in the evening since the cold spell began I think.

Graces7

No words needed...In the back field here tonight..

darkman2

Latest UKMO shows an increasingly Northeast flow with very cold air coming in next week









Alot of snow if any those charts occur but the last one in particular is serious stuff for the East, Midlands and South.

Gonzo

Sunday and Monday looks like being the mildest days over the next week. Getting much colder from Monday evening onwards.

rc28

Gonzo wrote: »

Sunday and Monday looks like being the mildest days over the next week. Getting much colder from Monday evening onwards.

I notice it's gone cloudy in our area, is there still snizzle falling at yours?

Gonzo

the snizzle was only for a minute or so, put it shows that there is potential for snow showers overnight.

Graces7

It seems very vague somehow..

The chill is huge tonight already. Deep and wide.

Small wonder ancient Scandinavian mythology images hell as freezing cold.

Ulster
01 January 2010- updated at 16:00
Today

Remaining dry in areas this evening but snow showers in other parts and bitterly cold throughout. Fog will persist in some parts. Widespread frost will occur. Winds light, variable or northerly.

Tonight

Turning even colder tonight with snow showers in places. Widespread severe or very severe ground frost will occur. There will be little or no wind and this will allow patches of freezing fog to set in. Lowest temperatures -4 to -10 degrees Celsius.

Tomorrow

Saturday will be bitterly cold. Snow is forecast and will become persistent and heavier in places later in the day. Frost, ice and freezing fog will last throughout the day in some locations. Winds will remain light and temperatures will rise above freezing only in coastal areas.

jenzz

No thaw at all.. Solid sheet snow. Im in a dip@ the top of a hill with no shade so unless temps dramaticly rise ill be like this for at least a week ( like last Feb) . Got car eventually up drive last night so she will be staying up there.... not like i be going anywhere in it .. currently 1.9 with dp -1.9

darkman2

Snowaddict wrote: »

It's certainly looking potentially quite severe alright. Tuesday is a day to watch in particular because not only will there be a cold front coming south, but potential also shown for two polar troughs to move southwestwards across the country.

With regard to the weekend, on Sunday in particular we have an area of Sub -8 850mb air moving down across the country, so I think that Sunday should be fine for snowfall in Eastern areas, if any convective developments were to occur.

850mb temperatures look bitterly cold for the period, as do maxima and minima temperatures. It's quite likely that more than one location will get double digit minima temperatures.

From mid week onwards, there is also the risk of a more pronounced due easterly flow, leading to further inland penetration of snow shower activity.

12Z GEFS Ensembles, 850mb temperatures remain at -8 to -9 by Saturday 9th. In terms of the evolution, there is a possibility of a link up between a somewhat declining Greenland High and a surface pressure rise over Scandinavia much later in the coming week, prolonging the cold spell - However we will have to see a favourable jet axis for this.

So definitely a bitterly cold week in store, with an increasing risk of snowfall.

Overall a good sum up. Tomorrow night there is a risk of snow in the East



But it should be sleet or even rain initially. Could give a further top up on what we have.

GavinH

Sunny all day in Cork. Temperature rose to 3 at it highest. Cloadless skies still, with the temperature falling rapidily and at -3.4c at the moment.

445279.ie

Freezing fog in Newcastle West all day. But don't think it feels as cold as it says on accuweather

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/index-forecast.asp?postalcode=newcastle%20west

Pangea

I notice everyone is talking about the east for a snowfall event, yet met eireann is pointing to significant snow for the northwest.

knoximus

-3 in KK city. fog moving in patches.

owenc

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well the east coast got a taste of things last night.

I got about a cm but i hear other people have good coverings.

Amazing how the cities transport system can breakdown so easily, where the hell were the gritters?

We are likely embarking into a deep cold spell.

Things look like continuing freezing for at least 10 days and who knows when the spell will end.

Looking at the next few days, there will be a weak band moving south tomorrow with some sleet and snow likely, then we have winds veering from North to East for 7 days or more.

There could be snow on the ground in Dublin for weeks.

Stay warm folks.

weathercheck whats your view on this trough can ulster expect much snow btw just to say we have 1cm snow lying here from a 20 minutes shower with snow flakes 1cm in width

maquiladora

Would be nice if this came off

Taken from Yr.no

Snowaddict

darkman2 wrote: »

Overall a good sum up. Tomorrow night there is a risk of snow in the East

But it should be sleet or even rain initially. Could give a further top up on what we have.

Thanks DM2

The latest UKMO FAX charts are now out:

T+24 - Tomorrow - 12 Noon

Two associated polar troughs, as mentioned above, moving south, penetrating inland across many areas by the looks of it - likely to present the risk of wintry preciptation as you have said, quite possibly snowfall, especially inland and over higher ground. In addition, there is a better chance the further east, away from any Atlantic maritime modification influences.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=24&carte=2000

T+36

Trough still clearing south across the country, across the Southeast at this point. It should retain relatively moderate preciptation intensity, especially further east with a source from the Irish Sea:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

Graces7

My thoughts exactly...

But then we have had this for two weeks now so it is old news!

All enjoy wherever

Pangea wrote: »

I notice everyone is talking about the east for a snowfall event, yet met eireann is pointing to significant snow for the northwest.

mickger

Waterford City to Dunmore East road is very dangerous in places with thick icy stretches . Temp is -0.8c DP -1.8c. Clear night

rc28

Snowaddict wrote: »

Thanks DM2

The latest UKMO FAX charts are now out:

T+24 - Tomorrow - 12 Noon

Two associated polar troughs, as mentioned above, moving south, penetrating inland across many areas by the looks of it - likely to present the risk of wintry preciptation as you have said, quite possibly snowfall, especially inland and over higher ground. In addition, there is a better chance the further east, away from any Atlantic maritime modification influences.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=24&carte=2000

T+36

Trough still clearing south across the country, across the Southeast at this point. It should retain relatively moderate preciptation intensity, especially further east with a source from the Irish Sea:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

Thanks SA for your, as ever, informative and well-put together posts. Is this a new feature that has appeared in the charts for tomorrow? ie have Met E taken this into account in their forecasts? Why are the conditions suddenly marginal for snow again- I thought we were well under the cold upper air by now?

Scubadevils

As was said earlier and now ties in with latest model info, the met update at 16.00 indicated a snow upgrade (if thats how you view it!) for the Leinster area...

Saturday will be bitterly cold. Snow is forecast later and is likely to become persistent and heavier in places in the afternoon. Frost, ice and freezing fog will last throughout the day in some locations. Winds will remain light and temperatures will rise above freezing only in coastal areas.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp?Prov=Leinster

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

I notice everyone is talking about the east for a snowfall event, yet met eireann is pointing to significant snow for the northwest.

Ah just a bit of wishcasting.

rc28

Felixdhc wrote: »

As was said earlier and now ties in with latest model info, the met update at 16.00 indicated a snow upgrade (if thats how you view it!) for the Leinster area...

Wow, didn't see any mention of that in the earlier forecast - they really do change their minds a lot! Loving this weather:D

inabina

owenc wrote: »

weathercheck whats your view on this trough can ulster expect much snow btw just to say we have 1cm snow lying here from a 20 minutes shower with snow flakes 1cm in width

why the chance of sleet tomorrow? bit of warmer air in this polar low?

owenc

Where is this trough located up in the north of scotland ?

owenc

inabina wrote: »

why the chance of sleet tomorrow? bit of warmer air in this polar low?

were are you hearing this from far to cold for sleet id like to think

Cicero

-2.5 in Kildare area currently.....feels very cold and snow never melted on many roads today...recokon a lot of roads will be very slippy tonight....

Scubadevils

rc28 wrote: »

Wow, didn't see any mention of that in the earlier forecast - they really do change their minds a lot! Loving this weather:D

Yeah some feckin rollercoaster, nearly finished all my January wine stash and its only the 1st!

Be interesting to see the weather after the news this evening, depending I suppose also on who is presenting.

inabina

owenc wrote: »

were are you hearing this from far to cold for sleet id like to think

actually i meant to quote weathercheck who said "Looking at the next few days, there will be a weak band moving south tomorrow with some sleet and snow likely, then we have winds veering from North to East for 7 days or more"

also michael mcauliffe talking about band of rain/sleet/snow 2mor more focused on ulster/connaught

Does anyone see any snow for West Dublin this evening?

owenc

inabina wrote: »

actually i meant to quote weathercheck who said "Looking at the next few days, there will be a weak band moving south tomorrow with some sleet and snow likely, then we have winds veering from North to East for 7 days or more"

also michael mcauliffe talking about band of rain/sleet/snow 2mor more focused on ulster/connaught

yea i think this should all be snow as temps are below 0c nearly everywhere and anything that falls will settle if it settles through the day it will through nighttime hopefully:D

Snowaddict

rc28 wrote: »

Thanks SA for your, as ever, informative and well-put together posts. Is this a new feature that has appeared in the charts for tomorrow? ie have Met E taken this into account in their forecasts? Why are the conditions suddenly marginal for snow again- I thought we were well under the cold upper air by now?

No problem rc28, thanks also.

In essence, it has been showing up for some time, within the past 24-48 hours but it's still uncertain as to how potent it will be, or as to the amount of warm air in the mix.

I don't know what to make of the Met Eireann forecasts because the radio forecast certainly sounds a bit different to the online ones, with less of a mention of persistent snowfall tomorrow. I think it will be a case of watching the radar & seeing it's exact track..

Conditions are only a small bit more marginal because this feature will have a certain amount of warmer air associated with it, after developing over the North Sea, which is still relatively warm as of yet.

Also, the 6PM Radio forecast mentioned the threat of more sustained snowfall in Northern and Eastern areas from Tuesday onwards.

SA

Supercell

One dry night, good to freeze up the snowbase good and solid for the action later.
This could become epic

darkman2

inabina wrote: »

why the chance of sleet tomorrow? bit of warmer air in this polar low?

A trough requires energy generated from a temperature imbalance. There is always a warm sector, usually small, of varying mildness. It's normally a bit of rouge heat brought in off the Atlantic. However temperatures and sea temperatures are so cold at this stage that the "mild sector" is infact very cold aswell. Just not as cold. It could be just snow tomorrow - or there could be sleet, possibly rain temporarilly. The winds go Northeast and that is why the Leinster coast is at risk tomorrow night and some flurries on Sunday. With the ground temperatures so cold with all the ice and snow on them anything that falls is going to settle even hail or sleet - which if anthing is more treacherous then just snow.

Johnaldinioh

hating weather at the moment cant take the bike out what a balls and after selling my car hopefully it will go away soon enough :(:(:(

LookingFor

Evelyn Cusack was just on the news...perhaps clarifying the slight change in forecast from 1pm. She said a (weak) band of sleet/snow would affect ulster, connaught and the northern half of leinster tomorrow.

So I guess that's where the more widespread forecast of snow for tomorrow comes from.

owenc

darkman2 wrote: »

A trough requires energy generated from a temperature imbalance. There is always a warm sector, usually small, of varying mildness. It's normally a bit of rouge heat brought in off the Atlantic. However temperatures and sea temperatures are so cold at this stage that the "mild sector" is infact very cold aswell. Just not as cold. It could be just snow tomorrow - or there could be sleet, possibly rain temporarilly. The winds go Northeast and that is why the Leinster coast is at risk tomorrow night and some flurries on Sunday. With the ground temperatures so cold with all the ice and snow on them anything that falls is going to settle even hail or sleet - which if anthing is more treacherous then just snow.

so we could have hail or rain even in ulster?

inabina

owenc wrote: »

yea i think this should all be snow as temps are below 0c nearly everywhere and anything that falls will settle if it settles through the day it will through nighttime hopefully:D

yep hopefully but i just recall some bad experiences with polar lows where we all expect snow and then temps go up 1 or 2 degrees.:o

paddybar

-2.2 here with a freezing fog down for the last 3 hrs

owenc

inabina wrote: »

yep hopefully but i just recall some bad experiences with polar lows where we all expect snow and then temps go up 1 or 2 degrees.:o

yea that happens here all the time but this time i think we have a good chance as everything is frozen totally..... there now when i went out and looked at the snow i opened the window and icicles were hanging of it as well as this on the ledge it was so cold that you could see the individual flakes at a safe condition not even melted.. the flakes are so dry too when they fall out of the sky and touch the ground they actually brake up!

inabina

darkman2 wrote: »

A trough requires energy generated from a temperature imbalance. There is always a warm sector, usually small, of varying mildness. It's normally a bit of rouge heat brought in off the Atlantic. However temperatures and sea temperatures are so cold at this stage that the "mild sector" is infact very cold aswell. Just not as cold. It could be just snow tomorrow - or there could be sleet, possibly rain temporarilly. The winds go Northeast and that is why the Leinster coast is at risk tomorrow night and some flurries on Sunday. With the ground temperatures so cold with all the ice and snow on them anything that falls is going to settle even hail or sleet - which if anthing is more treacherous then just snow.

a perfect explanation!

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Evelyn Cusack seems to think the northern half of the country is set for a dusting of snow tomorrow evening, said it'll prob fizzle out a bit as it goes south but im hopeful

mike65

Just saw the forcast not a glimmer of hope. -9 in west Cork.

inabina

mike65 wrote: »

Just saw the forcast not a glimmer of hope. -9 in west Cork.

-9 already??:eek:

Scubadevils

The met have now changed their forecast again for Dublin - earlier it was as per the general Leinster forecast but it has now downgraded as follows..

Dublin
01 January 2010- updated at 18:00
Tonight

Very cold. Frost and ice persisting. Dry. Mainly clear skies.

Tomorrow

Mainly dry with sunny spells but continuing very cold. Risk of wintry showers late in the day or after dark.
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp?Prov=Dublin

Birdnuts

Christmas card scenes all day here near Kill Village, North Kildare - temp never got above -2C with 5cm of lying snow = Great stuff and plenty more to come:D

SpitfireIV

inabina wrote: »

-9 already??:eek:

Might be, the latest readingfor Cork airport! :eek:

CORK AIRPORT n/a n/a - n/a - n/a n/a n/a n/a

Frozen solid!