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Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]
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Good bit of precipation hitting the North in a while ,what will this bring ?
It has sleeted here a good bit over night and its all frozen now so im expecting more.
We are so close to scotland up in the north but yet dont get as much snow as them , how is this
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/0 -
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Very cold night here in Mayo. -8.9c currently. Was hoping it would have topped the -11.3c we had last week before Christmas. Strange though, Claremorris met station only reading -3c here when my records are usually +/-1c of what Claremorris is recording?
Snaps, I noticed the same thing here. I am just to the SE of Claremorris and usually my own readings are no more than +/-1c out from what Claremorris is reading at any given time, yet my current temp is stagnant on -5.4c at the moment, whilst Claremorris is currently (as of 6am) on -2c. I think this is to do with elevation. Claremorris weather station is located on a high altitude (71m or thereabouts) whereas I am, and am sure your are, are at a lower altitude, which is where cold air tends to pool over the course of nightime. The 61-90 average minima for January for Tuam for example is 0.2c lower than that of Claremorris so I think that would back up my theory to some extent. Although the average maxima is higher here than for Claremorris.
Anyways, back to the charts. ECM run this morning is an absolute stunner. By far the best outlook (personally speaking) of the current cool phase:
This kind of chart is what I am talking about. It is the very essence of my forum name. It is the holy grail of all charts.
Bring that mother on!
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Snaps, I noticed the same thing here. I am just to the SE of Claremorris and usually my own readings are no more than +/-1c out from what Claremorris is reading at any given time, yet my current temp is stagnant on -5.4c at the moment, whilst Claremorris is currently (as of 6am) on -2c. I think this is to do with elevation. Claremorris weather station is located on a high altitude (71m or thereabouts) whereas I am, and am sure your are, are at a lower altitude, which is where cold air tends to pool over the course of nightime. The 61-90 average minima for January for Tuam for example is 0.2c lower than that of Claremorris so I think that would back up my theory to some extent. Although the average maxima is higher here than for Claremorris.
Anyways, back to the charts. ECM run this morning is an absolute stunner. By far the best outlook (personally speaking) of the current cool phase:
This kind of chart is what I am talking about. It is the very essence of my forum name. It is the holy grail of all charts.
Bring that mother on!
Deep Easterly, unisys weather ain't showing a deep easterly next week:
The 10-day outlook.0 -
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Actually, i saw you had Mon 11th Jan as a chart. Reliability is about 40%, so don't get your hopes up too high.
For those of you who don't normally read these charts. The lines are isobars - the tighter together they are, the stronger the winds. The dark blue areas are low pressures - winds circulate anti-clockwise around them in the northern hemisphere. So if you look at the blue center of the depression in romania - it will send winds from Moscow towards the UK and the airflow will reach ireland (but not the strong winds).0 -
The following is an analysis of the overnight guidance with regard to the continuing severe cold spell. Multi model guidance into the medium term, shows absolutely no sign of a breakdown in the cold. In fact, the cold is even intensified as a strong Easterly flow develops with exceptional blocking to our variable North and over Scandinavia.
ECMWF - 00Z Output
Fairly consistent with that of previous days. The main snow risk during Tuesday and into Wednesday is once again focused upon Eastern and Southeastern areas. However, it also seems highly likely that a Frontal Trough will move down across the country during Monday, giving the risk of snowfall. With this complex setup, we should never look too far ahead on Model Guidance because the evolution will of course change to an extent, but this morning, for it's entire run all the way out to T+240, ECMWF remains bitterly cold across the country.
Risk of Snowfall - Early on Wednesday:
GFS 00Z
Is also very similar to ECMWF, in that it suggests an Easterly, trending Northeasterly flow, later backing due Easterly again. Very cold conditions, with the risk of snowfall, also persist to T+240 and beyond.
The GEFS Ensemble set (00Z) is extremely interesting in that the Mean 850mb temperature for the East does not rise above -5 (which is used as a general guidline as supporting air at the 850mb level for snowfall) until the 15th of January. Again, these are also prone to rapid change but they show a very sustained cold outbreak at the moment. In the nearer term, the Ensemble Mean stays closer to -10 for many days in the next 7-10 Days:
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=115&y=32
The latest Met Eireann update, also seems to be in line with the overnight ECMWF 00Z Operational output:
www.met.ie
SummaryApart from isolated snow showers near north and west coasts, Sunday night will be dry but very cold with very severe frost and the risk of freezing fog patches inland. Air temperatures may drop as low as minus 10 degrees in places. Monday will be mainly dry also with some pale winter sunshine, but very cold with frost persisting for most of the day and roads and pavements staying icy. Tuesday will be dry in most places, but it'll be very cold and snow showers will affect coastal areas with fresh accumulations in these areas. During Wednesday there will be an increasing risk of longer spells of sleet and snow.
In summary then it looks as if the cold, at times very cold weather is set to continue for another 5 Days at least. As we head into next week, there should be an increasing risk of snowfall, with a very cold and unstable, Easterly to Northeasterly flow covering the country. Later in the week, there is growing consensus from NWP Guidance of a link up between the somewhat declining blocking high over Greenland and a surface pressure rise over Scandinavia. The result, as indicated on ECMWF, is a very strong Easterly flow with sustained blocking to the Northwest, North and Northeast.0 -
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yes mate i live in a hole. frost also lingers all day as w get no sunlight during the day apart from the roofjamesblonde wrote: »0 -
Excellent analysis, so their could be a small chance of the white stuff here in tropical Waterford City on Wednesday. I live in hope.Snowaddict wrote: »The following is an analysis of the overnight guidance with regard to the continuing severe cold spell. Multi model guidance into the medium term, shows absolutely no sign of a breakdown in the cold. In fact, the cold is even intensified as a strong Easterly flow develops with exceptional blocking to our variable North and over Scandinavia.
ECMWF - 00Z Output
Fairly consistent with that of previous days. The main snow risk during Tuesday and into Wednesday is once again focused upon Eastern and Southeastern areas. However, it also seems highly likely that a Frontal Trough will move down across the country during Monday, giving the risk of snowfall. With this complex setup, we should never look too far ahead on Model Guidance because the evolution will of course change to an extent, but this morning, for it's entire run all the way out to T+240, ECMWF remains bitterly cold across the country.
Risk of Snowfall - Early on Wednesday:
GFS 00Z
Is also very similar to ECMWF, in that it suggests an Easterly, trending Northeasterly flow, later backing due Easterly again. Very cold conditions, with the risk of snowfall, also persist to T+240 and beyond.
The GEFS Ensemble set (00Z) is extremely interesting in that the Mean 850mb temperature for the East does not rise above -5 (which is used as a general guidline as supporting air at the 850mb level for snowfall) until the 15th of January. Again, these are also prone to rapid change but they show a very sustained cold outbreak at the moment. In the nearer term, the Ensemble Mean stays closer to -10 for many days in the next 7-10 Days:
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=115&y=32
The latest Met Eireann update, also seems to be in line with the overnight ECMWF 00Z Operational output:
www.met.ie
Summary
In summary then it looks as if the cold, at times very cold weather is set to continue for another 5 Days at least. As we head into next week, there should be an increasing risk of snowfall, with a very cold and unstable, Easterly to Northeasterly flow covering the country. Later in the week, there is growing consensus from NWP Guidance of a link up between the somewhat declining blocking high over Greenland and a surface pressure rise over Scandinavia. The result, as indicated on ECMWF, is a very strong Easterly flow with sustained blocking to the Northwest, North and Northeast.0 -
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Derry Eglington is currently temp 2, DP 1. TAF gives small chance of moderate snow showers from 9am to 6pm today.
TAF EGAE 020831Z 0209/0218 28010KT 9999 SCT030 TEMPO 0209/0218 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN014 PROB30 TEMPO 0209/0218 1200 SHSN BKN008 BECMG 0212/0215 04015KT=
Note that Kerry Airport is currently Temp -8°C, DP-9°C, while Sligo Airport is +6/+2°C !
Dublin TAF still gives small chance of light snow showes this afternoon.
TAF EIDW 020500Z 0206/0306 27006KT 9999 FEW022 PROB30 0206/0210 0400 FZFG BKN001 PROB30 TEMPO 0215/0219 1500 -SHSN BKN006 BKN017CB BECMG 0219/0221 07008KT=
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