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Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭ffarrell


    Still just under 1 degree here in Castleknock in West Dublin and as white and icy as it was (apparently) on New Year's eve. Still approx 5 cm on lying snow and ice in estates but the main roads aroung me are still dangerous and slushy/icy. Enjoy:D the rain Galway. This snow is so dry like Last February when we had about 12cm that you could roll arond in it and still be dry! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭LookingFor


    Hasn't been a spot of preciptiation in D15.

    Snow etc. holding on fine here.

    Beginning to think it's a good thing we haven't seen anything from that precip...if it was going to be rain...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 319 ✭✭mad DIY


    Philcan wrote: »
    Hi,

    I have been following these threads since mid December and feel I am becoming addicted. At times I have got dangerously close to actually learning about the weather, thanks to great posts from Su, WC and others.

    Anyhow I now feel I am ready to make forecasts. My forecast is as follows:

    Mid next Week: some snow showers on the east coast....nothing to get too excited about.

    Next Saturday (approx 2pm): Heavy and prolonged snow for most of the country leading to the biggest snow event ever seen in modern Ireland. (The only place to miss out on the snow will be Coleraine in NI.)

    March 3rd (approx 10am): A thaw sets in.

    My forecast is based on the tea leaves from a split tea bag from my morning cup of tea.

    The leaves also predict that Ipswich will win today in the FA cup and England will win the World Cup this summer.

    Thanks

    :eek: Where can I get magic tea leaves like those..?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    turned very mild here in mayo, all frost melted and its been raining. Not what i was expecting


  • Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭glossy


    Philcan wrote: »
    Hi,

    I have been following these threads since mid December and feel I am becoming addicted. At times I have got dangerously close to actually learning about the weather, thanks to great posts from Su, WC and others.

    Anyhow I now feel I am ready to make forecasts. My forecast is as follows:

    Mid next Week: some snow showers on the east coast....nothing to get too excited about.

    Next Saturday (approx 2pm): Heavy and prolonged snow for most of the country leading to the biggest snow event ever seen in modern Ireland. (The only place to miss out on the snow will be Coleraine in NI.)

    March 3rd (approx 10am): A thaw sets in.

    My forecast is based on the tea leaves from a split tea bag from my morning cup of tea.

    The leaves also predict that Ipswich will win today in the FA cup and England will win the World Cup this summer.

    Thanks


    thanks,
    please dont let that be true or we never hear the bloodly end of it, arrrrrrrrrrrrrrh


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭ffarrell


    mad DIY wrote: »
    :eek: Where can I get magic tea leaves like those..?


    England wouldn't win an argument never mind the World Cup. Spectacular underachievers. One one World Cup (1966) when hardly anybody else was playing in it and on home turf with the help of a bribed ref, never to be seen or heard of again. Have never been in a final of the World Cup or European cup since....that is how good they are. France or Italy to win again...they are used to winning tournaments now or at least getting to the finals...!!!!!:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:...By the way pissing rain in London as .....usual....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 319 ✭✭mad DIY


    glossy wrote: »
    thanks,
    please dont let that be true or we never hear the bloodly end of it, arrrrrrrrrrrrrrh

    Good point :) Some slightly modified magic tea leaves needed then:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭HashSlinging


    Any Mods out there can you tell me are we going to get any snow in Wicklow today.?

    Edit just seen the page prev.. thanks!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    Temp is about 1 degree here but thawing a bit since lunch time and we had a sleet shower. Roads gritted thank God and the supermarket is like a cattle mart.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Raining in Galway. I'm suprised that the precipitation made it this far south. The roads will be a bugger later ....


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 319 ✭✭mad DIY


    Significant thaw under way in D6. I'd say about half the snow that fell on New Years Eve has now melted away.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,329 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Snowing on and off here for the last hour. Temp has dropped a bit to +1.4c


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Light rain shower here, most frost gone, just a few bits left in the shelter, temperature 2.8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    I've experienced them in real life so feel I have a licence to talk about what they can do and what I think they will do.
    Previously on boards I've said that a particular projected Easterly is no good and such and such but now we appear to be getting a sustained blast from both the East and NE at times and I don't see that ending before next week end.
    I've a higher confidence in that by far than I do in having any stab at what next weekends weather is.
    So in a nutshell it would appear that one vital missing ingredient to previous continental flows is being at least fulfilled for the next 5 days and thats exciting.

    On a side note,I got a call from some friends who I couldn't join because I'm working today.
    They are up on a mountain at about 1800ft asl at the moment in south wicklow a few miles from me and report level snow [not drifts] of over 2 feet in depth.
    That's fair enough. I do have a licence aswell to speak from my own experiences, and any sustained NErly from beyond 5 days out is just simply FI right now. I've experienced what even a small wedge of <-6 850hpa air from Scandanavia can do, when it's dragged over a warm Irish Sea. Slack northerlies however are not going to cut it, and there's a real risk of that happening as the week progresses.

    But that's the fun of it, it's a roll of the dice to see what areas are hit with it or not. The enjoyment I take out of being on this forum and making a forecast and discussing the options is great, even if they don't follow through:D Mind you, I always go for the most likely option from what my guts and experience are telling me. I'm liking tomorrow for some snow but the chances of heavy falls of snow making land off the Irish Sea is still on a knife edge IMO.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,329 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Showers cleared, temp dropped now to +1.0c

    SC, looks like there's a heavy spot of precip heading our way. Over North Kildare at the moment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 319 ✭✭mad DIY


    That precip showing on the radar over the Naas and Newbridge areas - is it falling as snow does anyone know, and what are the road conditions around there ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭squonk


    In North Clare it was balmy earlier. Getting a bit cooler now. Can see the top of that cumulus giving rain to Galway. Not too bad here. Roads in a reasonable condition.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    Really clouded over here now, sky a very dark grey. Starting to do something, looks a bit sleety...


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I do have a licence aswell to speak from my own experiences, and any sustained NErly from beyond 5 days out is just simply FI right now. I've experienced what even a small wedge of <-6 850hpa air from Scandanavia can do, when it's dragged over a warm Irish Sea. Slack northerlies however are not going to cut it, and there's a real risk of that happening as the week progresses.
    Well what age are you?
    1991 is 18 years ago - can you remember that or '87 ?
    Because frankly theres been nothing like this ,including last february since those times.Whats forecast is very similar to both.
    By the way both those spells were hit and miss for the snow but those under shower trains got tonnes of the stuff.

    I'm pretty basic in requirements for bitter cold.
    If we get the synoptics right and we're being told we have -8 to -10 850's and lower over us [Tomorrow!] fine but I always look upwind.
    When you see snow cover over most of Europe and daytime maxima sub zero and in fact well below -5c...then you have the needed surface air feed to complete the picture.

    I hear you on what is and what isn't FI but and heres the RUB against your [and I say this with respect] lack of experience of these things...We ARE actually locked into an East or North east flow for at least untill thursday of next week.
    Model uncertainty after that is how we get out of it..
    A week or two ago we were model wise in a much more fragile position [even though nature knew] and that was whether we were going to be locked into the flow we are entering.

    There is now unprecedented model agreement for what we are in.It's how we get out of it is now where the disagreement lies.
    Ergo relax-if decent falls of snow don't come to many [I've already had a surprise one] it will just be bad bad luck from a snow lovers point of view.
    As it stands,850 temps over the sea,wind direction,Air source and sustained air source all point to snow especially in the East in my view.
    Read MT's current thoughts on it if you don't believe mine.
    His analysis to date has been very spot on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭ffarrell


    Elmo5 wrote: »
    Really clouded over here now, sky a very dark grey. Starting to do something, looks a bit sleety...

    Very cold here now ..temperature has dropped to 0-5 degrees and getting cloudy. Hopefully some hail or snow but no sleet or rain....to cold for rain I suspect....hail, snow will do. No thaw at all here so far. Not the slightest.:D


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    no precipitation here so far today, no thaw either, infact the thaw was more noticeable yesterday where the sun melted the snow in the non-shaded fields.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    Tis an icky wet snow that's falling here...


  • Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭glossy


    Elmo5 wrote: »
    Really clouded over here now, sky a very dark grey. Starting to do something, looks a bit sleety...

    was just going tp ost the same, hmmm whats happing up there :D:confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭ffarrell


    Better to have wet snow falling than 'wet' rain or sleet. Is it heavy??:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,643 ✭✭✭✭Mental Mickey


    Nothing falling here.............Dublin 20. Last nights fall hasn't really melted.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    on the met eireann rader the showers are moving south east wards missing meath and most of Dublin however if you look closely on the Louth coastline it looks like showers are forming there and moving south-westwards approaching Co. Meath.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Elmo5


    very light and has now stopped. sky looks really dark, all the lights in the house on!

    maybe it'll be thunder snow :D

    no such luck though I think!


  • Subscribers Posts: 8,322 ✭✭✭Scubadevils


    Been dry all day in Lusk with little thaw of the snow/hail mix covering.

    Went for a stroll with the kids to the local shop today and the pavements and roads were lethal, slipping all over the place, especially crossing the roads. Amazed to see however the driving from some people... would really think that people would have more cop on and slow down with these conditions, so easy to hit some black ice on a corner and hurtle into a family such as mine walking to the shops. On that note, I read a post over on Netweather that I felt compelled to quote here...
    What the models do show is very cold dangerous conditions. Cutting people out of cars is the worst part of my job, this morning many roads and a main duel carriageway into Cardiff were completely closed due to numerous accidents on the ice. what i see on these models today is percipitation falling at short notice on frozen surfaces. I can say with experience that gritting can fail for patches of road due to lumps of salt clogging up momentarily or percipitation washing it away from road then freezing.
    It is not the white snow covered roads that catch you out as you can see it, its the normal roads you think are fine, speed up and it catches you out.
    This is the weather i love cold and possibly snowy and the models show a dream come true, but there really is another side to this forthcoming period so when you look at the models and see this fantastic week plus ahead, take in what your seeing and remember it when driving. Rant over ( just horrible to attend these incidents)
    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59482-general-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1689865

    Drive safely people! Or preferably not at all if you don't have to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    GME/DWD 12Z out to T+132..

    Very unstable northeasterlies with various ''kinks'' in the flow indicating several features running down NE-SW, therefore definitely the potential for snowfall to penetrate inland.. To add to that, it has a direct Easterly flow developing between T+108 and T+132. 850mb temperatures ranging -7 to -11 throughout.

    GFS 12Z

    Is very keen on suggesting widespread snow in the East & Southeast on Tuesday.. It has been suggestive of this for some time now so something to watch closely nearer to the time..

    SA :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭ellobee


    mad DIY wrote: »
    That precip showing on the radar over the Naas and Newbridge areas - is it falling as snow does anyone know, and what are the road conditions around there ?
    Its rain!!!!,snow melting rapidly


This discussion has been closed.
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