Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Rougies

ffarrell wrote: »

Temparature close to 0 degrees now in Castleknock with Cloud dissipating a bit. If cloud builds again in the next few hours the showers will be of hail, glaubel or snow.:D

There's a shower heading for north dublin / east meath /louth area within the next hour. Looks light at the moment though.

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

Deep east, any chance u could elaborate on that chart.

Hey Pangea, sorry, only seen your question now. . The chart I referred too:



is nothing more than a personal preference based on aesthetics. If it was to verify, then for the western side of Ireland, humidity levels would drop like a stone which would thankfuly bring very dry weather but also very visual weather. A flow like that would bring in a thick blue/purple haze from the continent which lowers the contrast of the sky and landscape and give a far more 'poetic' look to everything.

Daft I know, but I am a daft guy. If the same chart was to happen in mid summer, then high temps and heavy thunderstorms would be the theme. It is a beautiful set up at anytime of year!

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

Where did all this warm air come from? I left work at 4 with the car reading 5c/4c. Havent seen that kind of temp since about the 18th/19th Dec. Got home and the weather station was reading 3.9c!!! Its now dropping now, but possibly not enough for a frost tonight. Currently 2.2c here now. This time yesterday it was around -2c.

It is really only a surface warmth Snaps. The low that came down from the northeast created a WNW flow which dragged in milder air in off the Atlantic; the milder air being created by the warmer sea at surface level. Once the trough pushes to the south of us, we will be back to ground 0.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I would not have thought that age meant so much on the weather forum.

Age usually means experience and I've a fair idea that you are less than 20 years old so you have never experienced a prolonged proper siberian blast in Ireland.

You're taking NErly winds for granted when all it would take is for the Greenland High to build a bit more towards or for it to realign slightly as the week progresses to leave the east coast with dry northerly winds for much of the week!

No I'm watching the fax charts and models sub 96 actually all of which now [unlike last week] are towing the party line on the general flow..
With the former,I'm relying on expertise in the UKMO who are providing human opinion on much more output that we don't see.
With the latter I'm using my own experience.

And in general, I'm willing to respect people's forecasts. But it goes both ways. I felt that I made a good call on this forum by not expecting much snow before Thursday afternoon this week, against the calls of many people who said that Johh Eagleton was wrong. I think I too have the right to comment on synoptics with my own experiences. I have only disagreed with one tiny but critical piece out of all that post in terms of predictions. Wind direction. The further north up the east coast one goes, the more important any changes in forecasted wind direction are. The risk for something to go wrong with that aspect of the synoptics is still very substantial in my view.

Of course you have the right but your experiences,with respect are small.I remember for heavens sake when you used ask questions here about the simplest of things and thats not long ago.
You live in an area that doen't usually do well in an Easterly as it hasn't enough fetch
But you might do if like the time Gonzo got his snow 2 years ago when north sea showers got out into liverpool bay and pepped up near th eisle of man.

It's very easy to be right or wrong in marginal set ups like last week ,you,I or John Eagleton could have called it either way.
Besides John was very very unsure himself.

Thats ancient history as far as this cold spell we are now discussing is concerned as we hadn't entered it then.
Right now the synoptics are for the large part definitely not marginal.

As far as age or even amount of experience goes in this forum, I'm sure the mods themselves would not agree with it becoming an issue in how credible a forecast is, were that to occur.

Our two glorious mods haven't experienced a prolonged Beast either but I know WC has been wishing for one for years and I haven't had good things to say about the quality of the ones in the past decade because they lacked the kind of rock solid agreement this one has and all the factors were not there in my opinion..

Anyhow maybe I'm just in good humour with my lying packed snow and all.
It's amazing what it does for your mood.
By the way the icicles are still intact at the front of the house here.


We'll see

DOCARCH

Looks like a few showers bearing down on Dublin from the NE now. 1.2c DP 0.2c

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Just had a 5 minute shower of 80% snow 20% rain in Sallins

Feeling a lot colder out there all of a sudden

Scubadevils

Hail in Lusk now...

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hey Pangea, sorry, only seen your question now. . The chart I referred too:



is nothing more than a personal preference based on aesthetics. If it was to verify, then for the western side of Ireland, humidity levels would drop like a stone which would thankfuly bring very dry weather but also very visual weather. A flow like that would bring in a thick blue/purple haze from the continent which lowers the contrast of the sky and landscape and give a far more 'poetic' look to everything.

Daft I know, but I am a daft guy. If the same chart was to happen in mid summer, then high temps and heavy thunderstorms would be the theme. It is a beautiful set up at anytime of year!

pangea you won't like it if this chart is realised -especially if Donegal doesn't see much snow this week.

this is the chart you and i would like to see this winter:


:pac:

Takeshi_Kovacs

Temps dropping here now again from a max of +3 C down to -0.5 C now. Even with that +3 C temp, there wasn't much of a thaw since winds were so slack.

I am wondering what do people think next weekend will be like. I know forecasting beyond 2-3 days is very difficult as we have such varied weather here on this Island, but i wonder will this cold snap extend to the following weekend, or is there signs of it breaking and a return to milder weather?

Supercell

Light snow here, looking at radar might get a cm or two out of this before it passes.

ffarrell

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

Temps dropping here now again from a max of +3 C down to -0.5 C now. Even with that +3 C temp, there wasn't much of a thaw since winds were so slack.

I am wondering what do people think next weekend will be like. I know forecasting beyond 2-3 days is very difficult as we have such varied weather here on this Island, but i wonder will this cold snap extend to the following weekend, or is there signs of it breaking and a return to milder weather?

I feel that any showers that fall in Kerry/West Cork/Clare from here on in will be of rain as the South West is usuallt 3-4 degress warmer than other parts of the country and snow down there is very unusual. I could be wrong but I doubt it.:o

darkman2

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

Temps dropping here now again from a max of +3 C down to -0.5 C now. Even with that +3 C temp, there wasn't much of a thaw since winds were so slack.

I am wondering what do people think next weekend will be like. I know forecasting beyond 2-3 days is very difficult as we have such varied weather here on this Island, but i wonder will this cold snap extend to the following weekend, or is there signs of it breaking and a return to milder weather?

ATM there is no sign of milder weather. It looks like an Easterly wind may develope from next weekend giving really no restbite of the icy conditions. Very cold next week.

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hey Pangea, sorry, only seen your question now. . The chart I referred too:



is nothing more than a personal preference based on aesthetics. If it was to verify, then for the western side of Ireland, humidity levels would drop like a stone which would thankfuly bring very dry weather but also very visual weather. A flow like that would bring in a thick blue/purple haze from the continent which lowers the contrast of the sky and landscape and give a far more 'poetic' look to everything.

Daft I know, but I am a daft guy. If the same chart was to happen in mid summer, then high temps and heavy thunderstorms would be the theme. It is a beautiful set up at anytime of year!

Really ,I never heard of such a thing , Il look up the meaning of it, can u post a picture of such conditons? What exactly does humidty do in weather like this anyways? Is it likely that chart will happen, and have we ever had those conditons before?

nacho libre wrote: »

pangea you won't like it if this chart is realised -especially if Donegal doesn't see much snow this week.

:pac:

Yes nacho, ur right there, :eek: , aslong as it stays cold though it wouldnt be the worst.

Takeshi_Kovacs

ffarrell wrote: »

I feel that any showers that fall in Kerry/West Cork/Clare from here on in will be of rain as the South West is usuallt 3-4 degress warmer than other parts of the country and snow down there is very unusual. I could be wrong but I doubt it.:o

Ah yeh, i dont doubt that majority of showers will any more than rain (unless on higher ground) just hoping that the snow stays around long enough on the mountains for another week, planning on doing a bit of hiking maybe.

Snowaddict

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote: »

Temps dropping here now again from a max of +3 C down to -0.5 C now. Even with that +3 C temp, there wasn't much of a thaw since winds were so slack.

I am wondering what do people think next weekend will be like. I know forecasting beyond 2-3 days is very difficult as we have such varied weather here on this Island, but i wonder will this cold snap extend to the following weekend, or is there signs of it breaking and a return to milder weather?

Will await the ECMWF 12Z before any final commentary, but at least 70% of the 12Z Model output so far sustains the cold for almost another 10 ten days at least & certainly up until next weekend. Pressure will gradually rise towards the end of the week however.

For example, the Mean 850mb Temperature for next weekend is between -8 and -9, some 7.5 degrees below the average. For example, the latest 12Z GEFS Mean does not show any relent from the current conditions until at least the 14th of January - with the caveat that this is most certainly subject to change.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=112&y=22

The only output that goes to next weekend so far today is the 12Z GFS Operational run, which would give snow showers in Southeastern and Eastern areas for next weekend, drier further west but bitterly cold with air temperatures struggling above freezing. Temperatures of -10 at the 850mb level.

Best to check in here every now and again before next weekend to see how things are progressing.

SA

TheMilkyPirate

Bit more of a thaw here than yesterday but nothing substantial still most of the lying snow from new years eve still around. The drip on my roof has all but stopped so i'd suspect the temps are dropping again, Hopefully might get a few more showers tonight even 1-2cm would be nice, Just something to look at!

lucernarian

Deleted User wrote: »

Age usually means experience and I've a fair idea that you are less than 20 years old so you have never experienced a prolonged proper siberian blast in Ireland.No I'm watching the fax charts and models sub 96 actually all of which now [unlike last week] are towing the party line on the general flow..
With the former,I'm relying on expertise in the UKMO who are providing human opinion on much more output that we don't see.
With the latter I'm using my own experience.

Of course you have the right but your experiences,with respect are small.I remember for heavens sake when you used ask questions here about the simplest of things and thats not long ago.
You live in an area that doen't usually do well in an Easterly as it hasn't enough fetch
But you might do if like the time Gonzo got his snow 2 years ago when north sea showers got out into liverpool bay and pepped up near th eisle of man.

It's very easy to be right or wrong in marginal set ups like last week ,you,I or John Eagleton could have called it either way.
Besides John was very very unsure himself.

Thats ancient history as far as this cold spell we are now discussing is concerned as we hadn't entered it then.
Right now the synoptics are for the large part definitely not marginal.

Our two glorious mods haven't experienced a prolonged Beast either but I know WC has been wishing for one for years and I haven't had good things to say about the quality of the ones in the past decade because they lacked the kind of rock solid agreement this one has and all the factors were not there in my opinion..

Anyhow maybe I'm just in good humour with my lying packed snow and all.
It's amazing what it does for your mood.
By the way the icicles are still intact at the front of the house here.


We'll see

I've been on this forum since 05. You don't know exactly where I live either. You also guessed my age incorrectly, not that it is any of your business. How can you lay claim to know my experiences or how long they have been? I think everyone starts off small when observing the weather and forecasts via the internet, but I don't remember ever coming here with the most basic of questions. I learned the gist of chart reading and the varying opinions of them over on TWO. And I rarely posted there.

Should anyone else have to justify their age or experience to have an opinion or make a forecast? I should think not. If you want to disagree with what I have to say, that's fine, but it should be done on the basis of model output or listening to forecasters or your own observations or your experience. Not my lack of it or otherwise.

What I find most confusing about your posts is that they aren't trying to agree or disagree with what I'm saying. From Monday, the fax charts along with the other models are indicating a much more northerly rather than an easterly flow. It's an inexact science and if they were to vary either way, it would make a substantial difference to precipitation amounts in Dublin and a lot of other places. Do you want to comment on that or just my experience again?

Squeaksoutloud

Rougies wrote: »

There's a shower heading for north dublin / east meath /louth area within the next hour. Looks light at the moment though.

Much coming of this shower. See it on the Met Eireann radar. Have to drive from South Dublin to Drogheda in the next hour so curious to know.

whitemocha

stop bickering you two this is a fun thread and light hearted now kiss and make up and bring some snow:D:D:D:D

Supercell

TBC, have you looked at more recent charts?, its easterly and north easterly for t+24 onwards, are you maybe looking at old charts?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

What little white is now gone! It's raining.

Supercell

I like this..



Capital grinding to a halt if that happens

Takeshi_Kovacs

Thanks for the replies lads, sounds good for a bit of frozen lake skating high in the hills then...

Rougies

Is that the latest fax Supercell?

Supercell

Rougies wrote: »

Is that the latest fax Supercell?

I dunno, i'm drunk and happy, sneachta everywhere here and i webcam with my g/f for 4 hours earlier (she is in China), what was the q again?

Rougies

Supercell wrote: »

I dunno, i'm drunk and happy, sneachta everywhere here and i webcam with my g/f for 4 hours earlier (she is in China), what was the q again?

Lol, Happy New Year

pistolpetes11

Very Very light rain here in Newbridge

temp 1.1

DP 0.0

ellieh1

Snowing here in Irvine, Scotland, (South-West Coast), am trying to blow it on over to Ireland

ffarrell

Temperature says 0 but it is raining and sleeting here at the moment in West Dublin!!!:mad: Did not think this was possible at this temperature while freezing cold. Hoper this does not continue for long or hope it changes quicklt to snow or hail.

Su Campu

I have summarised the wintry bits in red . Note they've upped the chances of snow showers in Dublin and Casement since this morning's TAFs (PROB30 to PROB40). PROB40 is not just a 10% increase in probability, it's a significant change in the forecaster's thinking.

Short TAFs

(CASEMENT (BALDONNEL) (MIL))TAF EIME 021702Z 0218/0303 25008KT 9999 SCT018 BKN030 PROB40 TEMPO 0218/0224 2000 -SHSN -SHRASN BKN006 SCT017CB BECMG 0218/0221 05012KT= MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS 6PM-12AM
(BELFAST/ CITY)TAF EGAC 021700Z 0218/0222 03012KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025=
(LONDONDERRY/ EGLINTON)TAF AMD EGAE 021534Z 0215/0218 04013KT 9999 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 0215/0218 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN012CB=

Long TAFs

(DUBLIN)TAF EIDW 021700Z 0218/0318 28007KT 9999 SCT020 PROB40 TEMPO 0218/0224 3000 -SHSN -SHRASN SCT006 BKN010 SCT017CB BECMG 0218/0221 05016KT BECMG 0306/0309 08017KT= MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS 6PM-12AM
(SHANNON)TAF EINN 021700Z 0218/0318 VRB03KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 0218/0221 4000 -SHSN SCT006 BKN012 BECMG 0219/0222 06005KT PROB30 TEMPO 0222/0301 0400 FZFG BKN001 BECMG 0303/0306 05013KT= LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS 6-9PM
(CORK)TAF EICK 021700Z 0218/0318 30006KT 9999 FEW020 BECMG 0221/0224 05005KT BECMG 0303/0306 05015KT BECMG 0309/0312 07016G28KT=
(CONNAUGHT)TAF EIKN 021700Z 0218/0318 32008KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0218/0220 3000 -SHSN SCT003 SCT012CB BECMG 0218/0221 05007KT BECMG 0306/0309 05012KT= SNOW SHOWERS 6-8PM
(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE)TAF EGAA 021700Z 0218/0318 06010KT 9999 FEW012 SCT030=

Local Area Forecasts

(GALWAY (CARNMORE))EICM LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021500/022400 WIND 29007KT BECMG 1821 06006KT VISIBILITY 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 1519 4000 WEATHER PROB30 TEMPO 1519 -SHRASN CLOUD SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 1519 SCT006 SCT017CB CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=
(DONEGAL)EIDL LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021500/022400 WIND 05012KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1518 4000 WEATHER TEMPO 1518 SHRAGS CLOUD SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1518 SCT010 BKN017CB CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=
(KERRY (FARRANFORE))EIKY LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021500/022400 WIND 31005KT BECMG 1821 10005KT VISIBILITY 9999 PROB30 TEMPO 1824 0400 WEATHER PROB30 TEMPO 1824 FZFG CLOUD FEW020 PROB30 TEMPO 1824 BKN001 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=
(SLIGO)EISG LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021500/022400 WIND 30010KT BECMG 1518 04010KT VISIBILITY 9999 TEMPO 1518 4000 WEATHER TEMPO 1518 SHRAGS CLOUD SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1518 SCT010 BKN017CB CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=
(WATERFORD)EIWF LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 021500/022400 WIND 32007KT BECMG 1821 04007KT VISIBILITY 9999 WEATHER NIL CLOUD SCT020 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=