Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

nacho libre

Su Campu, do you feel there is any chance of a polar low developing and moving down over us at any stage during this week?

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

Su Campu, do you feel there is any chance of a polar low developing and moving down over us at any stage during this week?

Su, do you also forsee the lotto numbers, you can pm me them;)

lucernarian

Supercell wrote: »

TBC, have you looked at more recent charts?, its easterly and north easterly for t+24 onwards, are you maybe looking at old charts?

I had checked the fax charts on the UKMO website before that post. T+60 onwards looks like a prevailing NNE to me, and I have a fear (call it irrational if you will:p) that the Greenland HP need but ridge a little more and will knock out chances of any real snow showers developing either because the wind is too northerly or else building pressure helps dampen convection. The ensembles snow the air is cold, but not the direction it came from. The ppn for the 18z GFS ensembles don't have much for Dublin throughout the entire run.

DOCARCH

Light snow showers being reported at Dublin AP at 1800 (1c/1c).

Mobhi1

Just started raining here too. 0.8C with DP 0.2C.:mad:

DOCARCH

Mobhi1 wrote: »

Just started raining here too. 0.8C with DP 0.2C.:mad:

Ohh....I can just hear a bit of light rain now too. 1.2c DP 0.4c

Just looked out - with sleet and some snow in it too.

ffarrell

DOCARCH wrote: »

Light snow showers being reported at Dublin AP at 1800 (1c/1c).

WHAT OR WHERE IS DUBLIN AP????;)

Planet X

Air Port?

DOCARCH

ffarrell wrote: »

WHAT OR WHERE IS DUBLIN AP????;)

Airport

rc28

Airport

lucernarian

Mobhi1 wrote: »

Just started raining here too. 0.8C with DP 0.2C.:mad:

Ouch. Well the air's getting colder as time passes. You hopefully won't see rain again for the next couple of days at least! I think there's precipitation falling here in the city centre, but I can't tell what sort it is...

Went properly outside now, I think it's cold effing rain!!! I shouldn't be suprised but there ya go:pac:

thetonynator

I'm cold.

Very cold.

And quickly running out of oil.

And disappointed to discover that there is no smilie to show cold.

Gonzo

light rain just started here

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

Su Campu, do you feel there is any chance of a polar low developing and moving down over us at any stage during this week?

I would be looking at Monday night for the first chance. A vast pool of H500 air at -40°C or below is one requirement. The small shortwave H500 trough is another. And a H500 vort max to give it some upper support is a third. The FAX shows cold frontogenesis, which implies baroclinicity, which is the fourth.

All four look possibilities, according to today's 12Z GFS and 00Z Bracknell.






That's the idea anyway. Of course the chance of everything turning out exactly like above is a long shot, but we'll keep an eye on the satellite during Monday for any signs of PL development.

dfbemt

Sleet here.

Melted a lot of what was on the road but the roads are now very slushy

Su Campu

Supercell wrote: »

Su, do you also forsee the lotto numbers, you can pm me them;)

Nah, let's set up the biggest syndicate in history!

4, 12, 14, 33, 36, 39
Bonus 15

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

Is it likely that chart will happen, and have we ever had those conditons before?


Yes nacho, ur right there, :eek: , aslong as it stays cold though it wouldnt be the worst.

Firstly, don't believe a word Nacho tells you. He is a snow whore and should not be taken seriously :D

As I said Pangea, the chart I posted is a personal preference only. Low humidites and exceptionally dry and cold weather that an easterly flow like that would bring is much needed in Galway/Clare/Limerick/Kerry etc, the places that bore the brunt of all the rainfall last autumn. Set ups like that have happened before, but have become a lot more infrequent over the last 3/4 years. The nearest we got in 2009 was the first few days last June, when it made temps soar up to 27c-29c over much of the midlands and west. The most beautiful sunsets and cloudscapes will occur, and even 100% cloud cover will look ten times more magnificent.

Gonzo

ice pellets and sleet falling with the odd flake coming down out of it.

rc28

Sleeting here, big drops and flakes but this is exactly what we don't want; melting the existing snow on the ground but it will all refreeze tonight so that the roads will be even more treacherous than they were:mad:

WolfeIRE

Hi all.

Had light sleet for about ten minutes at 5.20-5.30. Air temp is 0c. About 2 inches of snow still lying since midweek.

Encouraging signs for some snow on Tuesday morning
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100102/12/66/ukprec.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100102/12/66/h850t850eu.png

The smallest fluctuation in the set up could see more widespread snow next week. However, I am not looking past Monday regarding the weather as I don;t think anything is set in stone. We still do not know enough about that southerly front that will effect South leinster and Munster tomorrow evening and Monday morning. Precip is likely to be small but it could lead so some accumulations if it goes according to the latest models.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100102/12/27/h850t850eu.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100102/12/24/uksnowrisk.png

BO-JANGLES

Its snowing in Castledermot:D

lucernarian

The Met eireann forecast just there looks good for the next couple of days for cold weather, but a lack of snowfall reaching Dublin worries me still. One of the days, when the predictive sequence was shown, had all the precipitation just off the coast. But PL development would indeed cure our worries:D

Pangea

So would a polar low last long, or just a day or two, what is a polar low anyways .

Su Campu

The official Dublin AP METAR for 1800 gave light snow shower but the met.ie site says moderate/heavy....

In any case, it hasn't stuck, the runway is reported as damp at 1830

rc28

Now a kind of hail/snow mix falling here

darkman2

ECM is out to 144hrs so I will sum it up

72hrs

Hail, Sleet Snow showers on Ulster and Leinster Coasts

96hrs(Wednesday)



Snow showers on the Leinster Coast esp Southeast


120hrs(Thursday)


Snow showers on windward coasts. More prolonged snow in western parts.

144hrs(Friday)



Very cold Easterly wind - snow showers on Leinster coast.

Su Campu

Pangea wrote: »

So would a polar low last long, or just a day or two, what is a polar low anyways .

They usually last just 1-2 days, and dissipate quickly as they hit land.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/PL/index.htm

Richyj_0

BO-JANGLES wrote: »

Its snowing in Castledermot:D

Thats not too far from where I am...Hmmm exhale strongly in a northerly direction please.:rolleyes:

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

The official Dublin AP METAR for 1800 gave light snow shower but the met.ie site says moderate/heavy....

In any case, it hasn't stuck, the runway is reported as damp at 1830

Mad....on met.ie, Dublin AP 1800 report has just been changed to sleet shower.

darkman7

Light snow in south Meath at the moment