Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Snowaddict

Yes indeed Darkman2, another stunning ECMWF run. Note that the 850mb temperatures for the East in particular are -8 to -9 all the way out to T+144, approaching -10 at T+144.

The Graphic that Evelyn used on the RTE 6.30PM broadcast is very similar to the UKMO Fax Charts from last night, but those have since been modified so I'm not sure what it's based upon, certainly not tonight's ECMWF which has a low cented off SW England at T+96, the circulation of which could well feed snow showers into Eastern/Southeastern areas also.

Also of importance is the successful formation of the Scandi High at T+120 - T+144, that gives at least another several days of bitterly cold conditions with a further risk of snowfall, especially in the East.

SA

Su Campu

DOCARCH wrote: »

Mad....on met.ie, Dublin AP 1800 report has just been changed to sleet shower.

See, they DO read boards.ie!!!

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

See, they DO read boards.ie!!!

Obviously....or else you went in and changed it?

Villain

Light Wet Snow falling

TheMilkyPirate

Su Campu wrote: »

They usually last just 1-2 days, and dissipate quickly as they hit land.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/PL/index.htm

When is the last time we had a polar low here? And what type of weather conditions did it bring?

Sorry if you have been asked this a thousand times before!

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

pproaching -10 at T+144.

The Graphic that Evelyn used on the RTE 6.30PM broadcast is very similar to the UKMO Fax Charts from last night, but those have since been modified so I'm not sure what it's based upon, certainly not tonight's ECMWF which has a low cented off SW England at T+96, the circulation of which could well feed snow showers into Eastern/Southeastern areas also.

I think the synoptics she showed may be based on the 00z ECM SA.

Snowaddict

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think the synoptics she showed may be based on the 00z ECM SA.

I think so too Deep Easterly as the Scandi High for the 9th was very similar to the overnight ECMWF 00Z evolution, thanks for that

Very interesting ECMWF Post T+168 section tonight also. With the rapid westward advection of the deep cold pool across Ireland between T+168 and T+192, an embedded low forms and is driven across the country, from the East to the West & is visible in the Atlantic out to the West of Ireland at T+192..

Evolutions like that bring a risk of more sustained snowfall for all.

No let up in sight on tonight's ECMWF either out to T+240 with renewed Easterly winds, with areas of low pressure being subdued to the south.

Very much a run of classic charts.

SA

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

I think so too Deep Easterly as the Scandi High for the 9th was very similar to the overnight ECMWF 00Z evolution, thanks for that

Very interesting ECMWF Post T+168 section tonight also. With the rapid westward advection of the deep cold pool across Ireland between T+168 and T+192, an embedded low forms and is driven across the country, from the East to the West & is visible in the Atlantic out to the West of Ireland at T+192..

Evolutions like that bring a risk of more sustained snowfall for all.

No let up in sight on tonight's ECMWF either out to T+240 with renewed Easterly winds, with areas of low pressure being subdued to the south.

Very much a run of classic charts.

SA

Just reading this gave me a chill down my spine. As you say Mark, very classic looking charts being thrown out this evening.

Would you have views or ideas on whether the current El Nino is somehow effecting the current weather pattern this side of the Atlantic? I believe we at the peak of the current El Nino spell (am open to contradiction on this), yet I always thought that a typical El Nino winter was usually mild and stormy, ala winter 2006/2007.

Su Campu

baraca wrote: »

When is the last time we had a polar low here? And what type of weather conditions did it bring?

Sorry if you have been asked this a thousand times before!

I'm not sure when the last one was, 2000 maybe? One of the more experienced followers on here might be able to confirm?

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I've been on this forum since 05. You don't know exactly where I live either. You also guessed my age incorrectly, not that it is any of your business. How can you lay claim to know my experiences or how long they have been? I think everyone starts off small when observing the weather and forecasts via the internet, but I don't remember ever coming here with the most basic of questions. I learned the gist of chart reading and the varying opinions of them over on TWO. And I rarely posted there.

I'm only making a point about age and experience.
You've posted many times where you are roughly and given a good idea several times of your age.
To give you an example of where I'm coming from about age...My Grandfather lived his first 90 years in the west of Ireland.
He then moved to live with us.
At a hale and hearty age of 96 he witnessed the jan '82 snowstorm here.
He had never seen the like of it ,even in '47 -though my father had up here in '47.

Should anyone else have to justify their age or experience to have an opinion or make a forecast? I should think not. If you want to disagree with what I have to say, that's fine, but it should be done on the basis of model output or listening to forecasters or your own observations or your experience. Not my lack of it or otherwise.

You are expressing doubt about whats coming.
I made the point that I'm looking at this from age and experience and it's a valid point regardless of what you may think I was doing mentioning age and experience.

I do love and hate it sometimes when people post so self righteously that they make out that the person disagree'ing with them is being personal.
I'm not but hey this is the internet,I'm fed up of stupid arguments on the internet and refuse to get into one.
I'm just making a point about what you've said.
You are wrong in my opinion with your concerns as to this not happening [by "this$ I mean deep cold and strong snow potential in the coming days].
But to be honest I'm long enough in the tooth to have heard all this before.
Frankly I couldn't be bothered arguing with what I consider rubbish.
I could of course be wrong and I accept that.It's the luck of the draw in that respect but I doubt it.My gut and what I've seen before is telling me this plus the data I'm see'ing so far.

What I find most confusing about your posts is that they aren't trying to agree or disagree with what I'm saying. From Monday, the fax charts along with the other models are indicating a much more northerly rather than an easterly flow. It's an inexact science and if they were to vary either way, it would make a substantial difference to precipitation amounts in Dublin and a lot of other places. Do you want to comment on that or just my experience again?

Yes I do.
You are displaying a total lack of experience.
The flow on the last ECM is north on monday but entirely NE through to thursday.
The UK fax charts are the same pretty much. the same with the 528 dam line way to the south of Ireland and 510 dam embedded in the source of the flow north of Ireland.
The 72 to 96 hr faxes all show a NE albeit with a col embeded over the southern part of Ireland [effectively where the flow is pooling which is lovely to be honest]with a low and fronts moving down through the UK from guess what direction ? yes the North East,the source of all our weather next week.according to Bracknell.
So to suggest we might end up in a dry northerly for the week is frankly nonsense and it's the kind of nonsense that I'm not prepared to talk to you further about.
As my Da used say and I'll paraphrase it in relation to the internet..."We must listen to thunder".

Su Campu

Showing very localised light coastal sleet and snow showers

channaigh

starting to snow in kilkenny i don't believe it:D

Snowaddict

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Just reading this gave me a chill down my spine. As you say Mark, very classic looking charts being thrown out this evening.

Would you have views or ideas on whether the current El Nino is somehow effecting the current weather pattern this side of the Atlantic? I believe we at the peak of the current El Nino spell (am open to contradiction on this), yet I always thought that a typical El Nino winter was usually mild and stormy, ala winter 2006/2007.

I agree with that DE,

I initially would have thought that this winter was going to be a relatively mild one, at least in the first have, with an area of positive height anomolies centred to the South & over the Iberian peninsula, dragging up mild southwesterlies across the country.

During November, the absolute amount of cyclonicity seems to have driven a significant amount of Warmer Air northwards and may well have disrupted the pattern forming over the Pole. In additon, we saw anomalous warmth at the 30mb level for quite some time during October and November, which undoubtedly contributed to the formation of Northern Blocking. At the moment the 30mb continues to run well below average, having done so for quite some time, making this current synoptic phase quite interesting - as it is really going against some background signals in that regard.

Might it be that we are seeing the reverse of what is generally experienced in an El Nino winter & that we will see a milder pattern emerge into February instead of anticipated blocking in a Nino pattern? That the cyclonicity in November was associated with El Nino & had knock on reversal effects at the Stratospheric level?

The amount of blocking at the moment is quite something & as you say the immediate & medium term outlook is chilling!

SA

Sierra Oscar

Quite heavy rain here at the moment.

knoximus

channaigh wrote: »

starting to snow in kilkenny i don't believe it:D

where in kk are u at?

channaigh

near freshford

darkman2

Currently im keenly watching developments for Tuesday. Like BB says it's the little things that catch you out. For example a sneaky front developing quite conveniently at an opportune time on the Irish Sea.


This could bring more prolonged snow to Eastern and Southeastern areas later Tuesday









ECM has it aswell.

knoximus

near freshford

I see. Light drizzle in KK city at present:mad:

LookingFor

With all these mixed reports it's like there's a big battle between maritime and polar air going on out there right now...

...when's it gonna be over? When can we expect the polar air to more firmly re-establish itself?

Nothing much happening here (d15) since that last bit or rain/snow...at least the stuff on the ground seems to have gone undisturbed anyway.

SpitfireIV

Damn, must have had a sleet/snow shower here in Carlow town that I missed!! A sprinkling on the ground and a frozen slush on the patio (that I nearly fell on! )

Temp 0.8c and DP -0.2c

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

I'm not sure when the last one was, 2000 maybe? One of the more experienced followers on here might be able to confirm?

not experienced, but I think 2, 000 was the last significant one we had. I believe it came all the way from Iceland and remained potent well inland as indicated by that satellite shot of Ireland posted yesterday which showed snow cover nearly all over the country

Tom Cruises Left Nut

CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »

Damn, must have had a sleet/snow shower here in Carlow town that I missed!! A sprinkling on the ground and a frozen slush on the patio (that I nearly fell on! )

Temp 0.8c and DP -0.2c

I hope things continue in that vein

Snowaddict

darkman2 wrote: »

Currently im keenly watching developments for Tuesday. Like BB says it's the little things that catch you out. For example a sneaky front developing quite conveniently at an opportune time on the Irish Sea.

This could bring more prolonged snow to Eastern and Southeastern areas later Tuesday

ECM has it aswell.

Indeed, it's looking potentially very interesting.

Two points to note from what I can see.

1. The GFS Precip for Tuesday is asscoiated with an active Frontal feature moving south. This is also indicated on ECMWF but it does not show much precipitation inland - however I still think there would be quite a bit. UKMO 12Z shows the precipiation (snowfall) persisting over land and becoming even heavier across Southern areas later on Tuesday.

2. The ECMWF snowfall prediction covers the period early into Wednesday and is associated directly with the area of low pressure modelled off SW England, it's from the cirulative ''wrap-around'' effects from the low - giving as you say plenty of potential for occasional to perhaps persistent snow showers in Eastern areas later into Tuesday and towards Wednesday.

SA

lucernarian

OK. I've just one question to ask now, but it's for anyone to answer. Does anyone else think I'm talking a load of bull with my posts in the last day or two, or that they are naive and lacking experience? Basically, am I lacking the credibility to disagree with other forecasters or posters?

I cannot help but take it personally when someone rubbishes my comments based on my experience and age, especially when that person doesn't know me. I don't give a rat's ass about who likes me or doesn't on the bloomin' internet. But questioning my credibility based on my age and own experience is far too personal for my liking. My love is for discussing weather events, not proving people wrong or getting annoyed over strangers on the internet. If people are not finding my own contributions lately to be helpful, then I'll keep shut on them.:)

TheMilkyPirate

Snowaddict wrote: »

Indeed, it's looking potentially very interesting.

Two points to note from what I can see.

1. The GFS Precip for Tuesday is asscoiated with an active Frontal feature moving south. This is also indicated on ECMWF but it does not show much precipitation inland - however I still think there would be quite a bit. UKMO 12Z shows the precipiation (snowfall) persisting over land and becoming even heavier across Southern areas later on Tuesday.

2. The ECMWF snowfall prediction covers the period early into Wednesday and is associated directly with the area of low pressure modelled off SW England, it's from the cirulative ''wrap-around'' effects from the low - giving as you say plenty of potential for occasional to perhaps persistent snow showers in Eastern areas later into Tuesday and towards Wednesday.

SA

Is this more likely to happen than events over the last week or two seen as the cold air is already here? I mean is it marginal?

pistolpetes11

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

OK. I've just one question to ask now, but it's for anyone to answer. Does anyone else think I'm talking a load of bull with my posts in the last day or two, or that they are naive and lacking experience? Basically, am I lacking the credibility to disagree with other forecasters or posters?

I cannot help but take it personally when someone rubbishes my comments based on my experience and age, especially when that person doesn't know me. I don't give a rat's ass about who likes me or doesn't on the bloomin' internet. But questioning my credibility based on my age and own experience is far too personal for my liking. My love is for discussing weather events, not proving people wrong or getting annoyed over strangers on the internet. If people are not finding my own contributions lately to be helpful, then I'll keep shut on them.:)

I myself enjoy all the comments on here , bar the "will it snow in my area tonight/what time will it snow in my area tonight and how much will it snow in my area tonight " comments.

I think you are making something out of nothing and that you should not be taking it personally .

meanwhile, back at the ranch....
its getting cloudy here in Lucan.

ps,has anyone heard about a comet hitting sun today?:eek:

pistolpetes11

I see the M2 buoy is starting to play ball again

Temp 5.6 but a DP of 0.8

Temp in Newbridge is 0.7 and DP -0.5 and it has not moved in an hour

Snowaddict

baraca wrote: »

Is this more likely to happen than events over the last week or two seen as the cold air is already here? I mean is it marginal?

The difficulty will be predicting the exact track of precipitation & where is it most likely to occur, where will it occur, what features will run down in the flow etc etc.

But no, it shouldn't be marginal at all, especially from Tuesday onwards when we should be under Sub -8 850mb Temperatures for at least 120 Hours...

SA

Su Campu

But until early Tuesday we're in a quiet spell, with not much activity going to happen in the next 48hrs. Maybe some limited shallow convection on the Irish Sea, but with ridging increasing from the north tonight and tomorrow, we need to wait till late Monday for the northerly outbreak to make its effects felt, first in northern parts.