Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Duiske

Jake1 wrote: »

ps,has anyone heard about a comet hitting sun today?:eek:

Yes, it was first spotted yesterday. Makes you wonder what else is flying around out there, and more importantly, where its aiming for :eek:

The pic below was taken by the SOHO solar observer. The comet can be seen approching the sun from the south-west.

gothwalk

We had the edge of a few rain showers here - the one I was in was falling as ice pellets, although that was over in the Carton Estate with maybe another 30m of height.

The temperature rose from an overnight low of -4.5C to about 1.9C, dropped back to 0.5C just around sunset, and is now back at 1.5C - looks cloudy. It's almost dead calm, too, just the slightest breath of wind.

smellslikeshoes

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

OK. I've just one question to ask now, but it's for anyone to answer. Does anyone else think I'm talking a load of bull with my posts in the last day or two, or that they are naive and lacking experience? Basically, am I lacking the credibility to disagree with other forecasters or posters?

I cannot help but take it personally when someone rubbishes my comments based on my experience and age, especially when that person doesn't know me. I don't give a rat's ass about who likes me or doesn't on the bloomin' internet. But questioning my credibility based on my age and own experience is far too personal for my liking. My love is for discussing weather events, not proving people wrong or getting annoyed over strangers on the internet. If people are not finding my own contributions lately to be helpful, then I'll keep shut on them.:)

It says more about the person questioning your age than you to be honest. It's a well used tactic on internet forums when someone is loosing an argument and can't come up with a proper reply.

Heh deathwish comet

In other news...theres no shortage in the nwp's [computer weather models] of flight data at the moment anynow

jenzz

temp shot up to 5.1... Wha ??????????????????????:eek:

smellslikeshoes

smellslikeshoes wrote: »

It says more about the person questioning your age than you to be honest. It's a well used tactic on internet forums when someone is loosing an argument and can't come up with a proper reply.

it's also a well used tactic in life Sir Could we agree to disagree now and get on with it ?

SpitfireIV

Deleted User wrote: »

Could we agree to disagree now and get on with it ?

Please do that guys, do it for the children!!


(sorry didnt mean to bring up the age thing, ie children! )

Anyway, temps 'frozen' here the past hour plus,0.8c and -0.2c air and DP respectively.

TheMilkyPirate

Snowaddict wrote: »

The difficulty will be predicting the exact track of precipitation & where is it most likely to occur, where will it occur, what features will run down in the flow etc etc.

But no, it shouldn't be marginal at all, especially from Tuesday onwards when we should be under Sub -8 850mb Temperatures for at least 120 Hours...

SA

OK, Thanks SA

My temp is up too with nearby precip Jenzz but only up a half degree with no precip.

Meanwhile for visitors to this page-Mt Cranium has done an update tonight in the forecast thread and it's a good one
He's usually fairly on the ball.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=63753875#post63753875

billy the squid

A short rain shower here has caused footpaths to become pretty slippery. not quite Christmas Day slippery, but dodgy nonetheless.

jenzz

Deleted User wrote: »

My temp is up too with nearby precip Jenzz but only up a half degree with no precip.

Meanwhile for visitors to this page-Mt Cranium has done an update tonight in the forecast thread and it's a good one
He's usually fairly on the ball.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=63753875#post63753875

Yeah I just had a read there, he explains everything so well - weve gone to 4.8 with a dp of .8. Not expecting anything now till Tue - Ill stay off the roads , get the kiddies back up tomo & hopefully a snowman or 2 by wed :D
meanwhile stock the fridge & get a ton or 2 of salt to sort my drive

inabina

children stealing the last of my snow. my garden is almost green.:mad:

inabina

sandyford. temp shot up from 0.6 to 2.3 in last 60 mins.:rolleyes: come on now deep easterly:)

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

I agree with that DE,

I initially would have thought that this winter was going to be a relatively mild one, at least in the first have, with an area of positive height anomolies centred to the South & over the Iberian peninsula, dragging up mild southwesterlies across the country.

During November, the absolute amount of cyclonicity seems to have driven a significant amount of Warmer Air northwards and may well have disrupted the pattern forming over the Pole. In additon, we saw anomalous warmth at the 30mb level for quite some time during October and November, which undoubtedly contributed to the formation of Northern Blocking. At the moment the 30mb continues to run well below average, having done so for quite some time, making this current synoptic phase quite interesting - as it is really going against some background signals in that regard.

Might it be that we are seeing the reverse of what is generally experienced in an El Nino winter & that we will see a milder pattern emerge into February instead of anticipated blocking in a Nino pattern? That the cyclonicity in November was associated with El Nino & had knock on reversal effects at the Stratospheric level?

The amount of blocking at the moment is quite something & as you say the immediate & medium term outlook is chilling!

SA

Mark, a brilliant sum up. Like yourself, I think the pattern in November, which was typical El Nino type stuff, did indeed have a high influence on the current pattern.

During the very wet period in mid November, a huge amouth of uppper warmth was pumped up into the polar regions which does seem to have jarred the pattern over the north Atlantic during December.

It will be interesting to see how locked in this blocking pattern has become. Will the lag effect of the El Nino peak break it, or is it possible that it may enhance it? Time will tell.

Mothman

Temp up from 2.9C to 4.7C in an hour. Dp stayed the same.
Wind NW to NE
4.2/1.1C atm

mike65

I dont have a thermometer but it ain't got any warmer down here. Car locks are frozen.

Trogdor

jenzz wrote: »

temp shot up to 5.1... Wha ??????????????????????:eek:

Hey jenzz here's the graph between 7pm and 8pm:), the wind shifted from NW to NE coming off the sea and the temp rose with it

inabina

moderate fall of hail and snow pellets in sandyford now. temp 2.1

owenc

trogdor wrote: »

Hey jenzz here's the graph between 7pm and 8pm:), the wind shifted from NW to NE coming off the sea and the temp rose with it

-1.8c here :eek::eek::eek: will this have an effect on the temperature here... noticed temp here is not dropping fast drove from derry/coleraine and temps the whole way to limavady were 0c! the whole way:eek:

houseoffun14

Temp 1.9 now in Colpe Cross near Drogheda. What seems like and easterly wind seems to be picking up.

inabina

very heavy pellets now. temp 1.9

jenzz

trogdor wrote: »

Hey jenzz here's the graph between 7pm and 8pm:), the wind shifted from NW to NE coming off the sea and the temp rose with it

Thanks hun - been glued to the charts.

Lashing rain now - Temp 3.7 DP 1.1:(

Min

Had a little snow two hours ago, everywhere was white with frost, now everywhere looks a proper white with the little bit of snow that fell.

inabina

inabina wrote: »

very heavy pellets now. temp 1.9

now lightening and thunder, sandyford

Trogdor

owenc wrote: »

-1.8c here :eek::eek::eek: will this have an effect on the temperature here... noticed temp here is not dropping fast drove from derry/coleraine and temps the whole way to limavady were 0c! the whole way:eek:

Winds should have already changed up there with you owenc so if the temp is still -1.8C then the windshift won't be having much more effect on you up there:)

darkman2

inabina wrote: »

now lightening and thunder, sandyford

Any showers on the East coast from now on will be primarilly of snow or graupel (probrably snow) as really cold air is now just about established again. Colder then New Years Eve incidentally.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/9-7.GIF?02-12

owenc

trogdor wrote: »

Winds should have already changed up there with you owenc so if the temp is still -1.8C then the windshift won't be having much more effect on you up there:)

ok thanks nearly died when i seen those reports very worrying for people down south... thank god that didnt happen here! thanks very much

jenzz

darkman2 wrote: »

Any showers on the East coast from now on will be primarilly of snow or graupel (probrably snow) as really cold air is now just about established again. Colder then New Years Eve incidentally.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/9-7.GIF?02-12

Mine are rain DM.... The melted my baby snowman:mad::mad: Hes dead!:mad:

Trogdor

darkman2 wrote: »

Any showers on the East coast from now on will be primarilly of snow or graupel (probrably snow) as really cold air is now just about established again. Colder then New Years Eve incidentally.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/9-7.GIF?02-12

Hehe raining here dm;) but hopefully the temp'll be pegged back a bit soon:)

owenc

darkman2 wrote: »

Any showers on the East coast from now on will be primarilly of snow or graupel (probrably snow) as really cold air is now just about established again. Colder then New Years Eve incidentally.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/9-7.GIF?02-12

oh if only it was like that this morning!:rolleyes: but who cares now its -2c and getting colder hurray!