Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Snowaddict

force eleven wrote: »

They must be factoring in the 'relatively' milder maritime influence that the front would pick up - i.e slightly higher temps and DP's = rain.

I agree Force Eleven, but there is also at least a risk of wintry precipitation mixed in with it, I was just checking the ECMWF 00Z 850mb Temperatures for this period and they are -7 at least. But as you say, it could well be associated with the maritime influence.

Interestingly, UKMO are going for sleet & snowfall:

Mainly dry at first with some sunshine. Light sleet and snow showers towards the North Coast will edge southwards during the day.

A difficult outcome to predict certainly & that will be the story for the coming week.

SA

Scubadevils

I must say I'm pretty lost at the moment as to what the potential is for the coming week. On the one hand, I have read about it being the most severe since the 70's / prepare for the upcoming cold / check the elderly etc, and then I also read about the marginal aspect of whether we get snow, sleet or rain over the coming days... if we even get any precipitation!

I think I may be reading the UK forums too much and assuming the severity there will be the same here... I remember all too well over the last 25 years or so watching winter wonderland scenes on the TV from the UK while we barely shiver.

Is it just me and my hangover or is this going the wrong way?! Any crumbs of comfort out there?!

owenc

Felixdhc wrote: »

I must say I'm pretty lost at the moment as to what the potential is for the coming week. On the one hand, I have read about it being the most severe since the 70's / prepare for the upcoming cold / check the elderly etc, and then I also read about the marginal aspect of whether we get snow, sleet or rain over the coming days... if we even get any precipitation!

I think I may be reading the UK forums too much and assuming the severity there will be the same here... I remember all too well over the last 25 years or so watching winter wonderland scenes on the TV from the UK while we barely shiver.

Is it just me and my hangover or is this going the wrong way?! Any crumbs of comfort out there?!

the severity in england is rubbish compared to even galway or somewhere as they are near france and our effected by a low pressure system as well as this southern and central scotland has similar temps as ni if not warmer the only colder place would be northern scotland..

owenc

Snowaddict wrote: »

I agree Force Eleven, but there is also at least a risk of wintry precipitation mixed in with it, I was just checking the ECMWF 00Z 850mb Temperatures for this period and they are -7 at least. But as you say, it could well be associated with the maritime influence.

Interestingly, UKMO are going for sleet & snowfall:
A difficult outcome to predict certainly & that will be the story for the coming week.

SA

im confused i hoping it will be snow i think it wil be to with upper temps lik that but again the same rubbish could happen again:mad:

Leaving aside what may fall out of the sky on monday night and tuesday for a moment.
Looking at the Gfs 06z out to T72 it has -10 850 air and what looks like -40 500 air blowing down in a NE over the Irish sea overnight tuesday into wenesday.

Like my mums recipe for the Stuffing for the Turkey [yum!]...with pressure from 1010 to 1015mb-that can only mean one thing Heavy heavy snow showers onto the East with no marginality whatsoever.
It *should* be safe in general terms to say that specifically at just 3 days out it would mean shower train mahem.

G-Money

I don't understand all the technical jargon, but from looking outside here in Dublin 18, most of the snow and ice are gone. There's just a bit of snow on the grass, but other than that, you wouldn't know now that there had been any snow.

mike65

The milder air you were experiencing last evening reached down to here, no additional ground frost and indeed the car frost free.

grandmaster

grandmaster wrote: »

I don't understand all the technical jargon, but from looking outside here in Dublin 18, most of the snow and ice are gone. There's just a bit of snow on the grass, but other than that, you wouldn't know now that there had been any snow.

Yes-would you like to know the reason for that?
Snow at 3c thaws when no more snow falls.
An East wind will do that when it's not yet refed with colder air.

3c is very cold though in a biting wind.
If you want a level headed reliable version of whats happening next,I'd suggest you read and keep tuned to the updates of this ...

force eleven

owenc wrote: »

im confused i hoping it will be snow i think it wil be to with upper temps lik that but again the same rubbish could happen again:mad:

Well, for my area , anytime we have had the 'potential' for snow since before Christmas , it has been rain, sometimes freezing rain, very frustrating but we live in the sheltered midlands, as far away from the sea as is possible on this island so we will need really optimum conditions for snow next week here , which I am struggling to see tbh. That is not to say nowhere will see a decent fall, but it may be localised rather than widespread. Lets see what happens.

ninebeanrows

Quick Outlook for you all;

Today:
Cold and mostly dry as a ridge of high pressure sits over Ireland from the northwest. Tonight a hard freeze temperatures widely down to -5c touching -8c in places.

Monday:
Winds veer more northerly, cold front approaches north coast, slight mix of maritime air within flow. Front slowly edges south through Monday afternoon and into Tuesday AM. Light precip for most. Falling as perhaps sleet in places but snow for most. Only small amounts.

Tuesday:
The cold front will clear the south coast with Northeasterly winds following behind. Showers will start forming in the Irish sea from afternoon. Ireland will be under a bitterly cold airmass at this stage with temperatures struggling to reach 0c across the country. The showers will begin to push onto to Irish sea coasts and become heavier through the night. Counties at risk, Dublin, Wicklow, Wexford, Kildare,Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford.

Wednesday:
It will be a baltic day across the country although probably mostly dry away from the east coast. The northeasterly flow will drive in heavy snow showers to the east throughout the day with the potential for some organised bands of snow push southeast. I would expect accumulations in the counties mentioned to range from 10cm widely to 20/30cm in prone and hilly spots.
Anoher subzero day.

owenc

force eleven wrote: »

Well, for my area , anytime we have had the 'potential' for snow since before Christmas , it has been rain, sometimes freezing rain, very frustrating but we live in the sheltered midlands, as far away from the sea as is possible on this island so we will need really optimum conditions for snow next week here , which I am struggling to see tbh. That is not to say nowhere will see a decent fall, but it may be localised rather than widespread. Lets see what happens.

well its still -4c here and i doubt we will get above 0c today so i will be expecting snow but again it could happen like saturday will have to see i thought tomorrows even was for the north?

A Dub in Glasgo

owenc wrote: »

the severity in england is rubbish compared to even galway or somewhere as they are near france and our effected by a low pressure system as well as this southern and central scotland has similar temps as ni if not warmer the only colder place would be northern scotland..

I drove over to Edinburgh Airport yesterday and they have had an absolute dumping of snow over the last 2 weeks. The snow around Glasgow has been lying for 2 weeks now although nowhere near as heavy as Edinburgh and the East. It is currently -7c here and feels bitter outside. Edinburgh Airport was reporting -8.9 this morning

The Highlands have not as much snow for years so we are definitely in a prolonged cold snap. It is quite severe in parts of Scotland and North East England, the media just have not cottoned on to it yet as we ar still in the holiday period. Most of Scotland goes back to work on Tuesday, then it could be interesting.

Have a look at the main artery road webcams to get a feel

http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/

jambofc

we have a very light covering in trim,could just about make a snowball(if u had enough time)
this whole event is turning into a non event again,just one big fall please before we inevitably fall back into mild mush again.


on another note we had a complete thaw yesterday so the dusting is covering pure ice the roads are the worst ive seen them.#be safe#

Leeside

Just started to rain/sleet here in Cork city. Surprisingly heavy. I hope it doesn't freeze on the roads which are already lethal. No buses running to quite a number of areas.

wushu

Almost a complete thaw here in Wicklow town :rolleyes:but the wind is blowing in off the Irish sea, so I expect that has a lot to do with it... even though its still bitterly cold outside.. next week looks interesting from reading some of the previous posts:cool:

snaps

Should we be worried about the low pressure sitting out to the south west of us? I remember what happened last week with that Low pressure that travelled further north than forcast?

Min

The ice and light snow cover continues here.

ffarrell

owenc wrote: »

im confused i hoping it will be snow i think it wil be to with upper temps lik that but again the same rubbish could happen again:mad:

Look the South of England is generally much milder than the East of Ireland or the North of Ireland and Northern England. When one part of the UK gets snow the Tabloid headlines are 'BRITAIN BATTERED BY SNOWSTORM. Typical. For the past 10 days now Dublin has been a lot colder tahn London...:rolleyes:

Su Campu

For anyone who doesn't know what sea-effect convection looks like, this morning is a perfect example!

As the cold airmass flows westward off the cold land surfaces, it becomes modified by the relatively warm sea, and convective clouds are generated after a certain distance. It's so marked today that you can even see the shape of the coastline in the cloud patterns (especially off the Galway/Mayo coast).

owenc

ffarrell wrote: »

Look the South of England is generally much milder than the East of Ireland or the North of Ireland and Northern England. When one part of the UK gets snow the Tabloid headlines are 'BRITAIN BATTERED BY SNOWSTORM. Typical. For the past 10 days now Dublin has been a lot colder tahn London...:rolleyes:

Yes I know Britain to them is London not ni,not Scotland nor wales everythig is england england and im fed up with it like ni had -12c the other night and they said nothing if london got that all hell would break loss i mean it they get everything ugh!

snaps

Strange, Wind coming from the east here but clouds seem to be coming from the south?

Su Campu

For the first time in a few days this morning's airport forecasts have no mention of wintry precipitation in the next 24 hours for any of the 11 airports on the island of Ireland.

The 12Z chart below does mention occasional light sleet and snow showers for coastal margins of the east, but this was generated at 5am, so things have changed slightly in the meantime.

Gonzo

im getting worried now that there will be a lack of precipitation where I live and perhaps could just escape with a cold dry week with a few light flurries. The snow risk areas seem to be south Dublin southwards yet again:( Lets hope the risk turns out to be far greater than those limited to the south-eastern areas.

G-Money

Am I the only one hoping that there won't be any more snow?

Wibbler

Felixdhc wrote: »

I must say I'm pretty lost at the moment as to what the potential is for the coming week.

I'm with you there.

It's been a puzzling cold spell for me so far. Persistent cold, the like of which we haven't seen in years, but without significant wintry precipitation at my nth. Dublin location. Next week will probably see me continue to scratch my head and wonder if those snowy spells I remember are actually planted memories.

Some of my confusion may be to do with my location. I lived in Dublin 12 in the 70s & 80s, which is further inland and further south than Swords. I remember some good falls of snow while living there. In January 1982, which is the coldest spell I can remember, it was snowmaggedon there.

Fast forward nearly 30 years and last February saw little more than a dusting here in Swords, while places like Castleknock, Lucan etc. saw much more. Here in Swords, we got 1cm of hail here in recent days. I wonder what Dublin 12 got? In rating this spell, I'm probably comparing apples with oranges.

Still, for all the disappointment in not seeing significant snow, at least it's been good fun on this forum.

nacho libre

it looks like the bbc weather has cottoned on to joe bastardi's prediction of possible major snowfall for the south east of England on Friday. Meanwhile it looks like the high pressure to the west of Ireland by late next week should kill off the showers. it wouldn't surprise me if the original signals the ecmf picked up on turn out to be right- it was that the high pressure to the west would eventually move in over around the ninth or tenth of January

The Express

owenc wrote: »

Yes I know Britain to them is London not ni,not Scotland nor wales everythig is england england and im fed up with it like ni had -12c the other night and they said nothing if london got that all hell would break loss i mean it they get everything ugh!

The term 'Britain' does not include N.I.

They (you) have a London-biased media in much the same way that we have a Dublin-biased media a lot of the time.

As London is your capital and most populated area, all hell would probably break loose if it went to -12.

It was probably close to -12 in other less populated parts of the UK but it doesn't mean it has to be headline news ffs.

nacho libre

also i'm not expecting anything but a cold and dry week here. the one chance we get on monday will just result in light snowfall here. i would suggest anyone east of the midlands hoping for snow to do the same. you may get a surprise but it's more likely you'll get sod all.

owenc

nacho libre wrote: »

it looks like the bbc weather has cottoned on to joe bastardi's prediction of possible major snowfall for the south east of England on Friday. Meanwhile it looks like the high pressure to the west of Ireland by late next week should kill off the showers. it wouldn't surprise me if the original signals the ecmf picked up on turn out to be right- it was that the high pressure to the west would eventually move in over around the ninth or tenth of January

typical they get loads of snow after us being colder than them for weeks.. then in the summer they get a heatwave...... typical typical typical now you kow what that post i wrote above is talking about!

owenc

The Express wrote: »

The term 'Britain' does not include N.I.

They (you) have a London-biased media in much the same way that we have a Dublin-biased media a lot of the time.

As London is your capital and most populated area, all hell would probably break loose if it went to -12.

It was probably close to -12 in other less populated parts of the UK but it doesn't mean it has to be headline news ffs.

well yeah i know that because we have had colder but im saying if london got that it would be on the news they are that pathetic its making britain look warm! like spain and as for the term britain ni can sometimes be included for that and i do not know why you would care when you are not in ni?