Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Cian92

YAY! Macroom has snow, hopefully Cork city will get it soon, all we have is rain (sometimes turning to sleet for 5 minutes). But then again anytime someone here has said we will get snow, we don't get any. So please don't forecast snow for Cork!

MB1380

Cian92 wrote: »

YAY! Macroom has snow, hopefully Cork city will get it soon, all we have is rain (sometimes turning to sleet for 5 minutes). But then again anytime someone here has said we will get snow, we don't get any. So please don't forecast snow for Cork!

Its not sticking though, a bit too wet . must head up the mountains again!

Cian92

MB1380 wrote: »

Its not sticking though, a bit too wet . must head up the mountains again!

Oh well, I give up on this snow business...

Min

Gerry Murphy seems to have got over his snow phobia there, headlines for the week being the cold, ice and freezing fog plus falls of sleet and snow with widespread sleet and snow showers later tomorrow and tomorrow night for all.

SpitfireIV

Min wrote: »

Gerry Murphy seems to have got over his snow phobia there, headlines for the week being the cold, ice and freezing fog plus falls of sleet and snow with widespread sleet and snow showers later tomorrow and tomorrow night for all.

Bit like this was it:

jenzz

Morning all - wow big thaw on - did I sleep though the 2 weeks cold spell ??:) so whats been happening ??

nacho libre

Wibbler wrote: »

Ah yes, but you forgot to mention that at that point the sea will be too cold to give good convection so there will only be flurries.

for Dublin perhaps;) but i always do quite well out of a northerly airflow in February. it only lasts a couple of days but we usually get snow.

dfbemt

2 charts below. The first I posted yesterday, the second is todays update.

There appears to be some small changes but the experts can surely tell us more about what it means.

I'm trying to get a hang of things - looks to me like the cold is spreading more inland.

What does the High developing / changing off the NW cost mean?

Thanks to all for input.

dfbemt wrote: »

WolfeIRE

Monday Night/Tuesday Morning Snow event - Organised front pushing southwards across Ireland. Northern and western parts will see most of the precipitation.

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_precipratec.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_mslp850.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Areas closest to the coast may only see sleet. Temps are marginal
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_ukdp.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_2mtmp.png

HEALTH WARNING - This potential event may be wiped out come tomorrow morning's ensembles. It may, of course, also be upgraded. Either way, it's one to watch.

dfbemt

dfbemt wrote: »

2 charts below. The first I posted yesterday, the second is todays update.

There appears to be some small changes but the experts can surely tell us more about what it means.

I'm trying to get a hang of things - looks to me like the cold is spreading more inland.

What does the High developing / changing off the NW cost mean?

Thanks to all for input.

Basically the difference is the depth of the cold reaching Ireland has increased in the view of the model with all the associated effects that may bring

WolfeIRE

ADD ON TO LAST POST:
A run of this radar demonstrates excellently the battle lines that have been drawn between the Polar air and the Atlantic.

The run takes about 60-90 secs to load. When finished just click play. you may also drag the timeline icon to speed up the run.

snaps

WolfeIRE wrote: »

ADD ON TO LAST POST:
A run of this radar demonstrates excellently the battle lines that have been drawn between the Polar air and the Atlantic.

The run takes about 60-90 secs to load. When finished just click play. you may also drag the timeline icon to speed up the run.

Thats one of my favourite animated sites that one!

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Monday Night/Tuesday Morning Snow event - Organised front pushing southwards across Ireland. Northern and western parts will see most of the precipitation.

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_precipratec.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_mslp850.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Areas closest to the coast may only see sleet. Temps are marginal
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_ukdp.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/06_48_2mtmp.png

HEALTH WARNING - This potential event may be wiped out come tomorrow morning's ensembles. It may, of course, also be upgraded. Either way, it's one to watch.

yes the health warning to be more specific should read that the front coming from the north could introduce milder air than anticipitated, like what we saw happen yesterday, and it could well be that the front could lose a lot its energy as it pushes south through northern ireland. although, i think if it's a series of fronts coming down we have a better chance of the precipitation not petering out as it comes south, just that the north would see the heaviest of the showers.

SpitfireIV

WolfeIRE wrote: »

HEALTH WARNING - This potential event may be wiped out come tomorrow morning's ensembles. It may, of course, also be upgraded. Either way, it's one to watch.

A health warning is unnecessary, we're all loonies by this stage anyway!

mad DIY

Wibbler wrote: »

I'm with you there.

It's been a puzzling cold spell for me so far. Persistent cold, the like of which we haven't seen in years, but without significant wintry precipitation at my nth. Dublin location. Next week will probably see me continue to scratch my head and wonder if those snowy spells I remember are actually planted memories.

Some of my confusion may be to do with my location. I lived in Dublin 12 in the 70s & 80s, which is further inland and further south than Swords. I remember some good falls of snow while living there. In January 1982, which is the coldest spell I can remember, it was snowmaggedon there.

Fast forward nearly 30 years and last February saw little more than a dusting here in Swords, while places like Castleknock, Lucan etc. saw much more. Here in Swords, we got 1cm of hail here in recent days. I wonder what Dublin 12 got? In rating this spell, I'm probably comparing apples with oranges.

Still, for all the disappointment in not seeing significant snow, at least it's been good fun on this forum.

I'm only round the corner from D.12. We got one inch (2.5cm) of proper snow on New Years Eve.

snaps

nacho libre wrote: »

i think if it's a series of fronts coming down we have a better chance of the precipitation not petering out as it comes south, just that the north would see the heaviest of the showers.

Oh no dont start Owenc off again:rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

LATEST ME Update:
03 January 2010 11:55

Today Dry and bright across most areas today - some good sunshine across the north and northwest, with bright or sunny spells elsewhere. Just a few isolated wintry showers, mainly across south and east coasts. Cold, with highest temperatures just 2 to 5 degrees, in a mainly moderate easterly breeze, fresher though across western and southwestern counties.
Tonight

Turning extremely cold and frosty tonight under clear skies. Many areas staying dry, but a few wintry showers will affect north and northwest coasts as well as some eastern fringes. A widespread sharp to severe frost will develop soon after dark, along with some icy stretches. Risk of some freezing fog too. Lowest temperatures 0 to - 8 degrees, coldest across the midlands, with just light variable breezes.

Tomorrow

Another bitterly cold day tomorrow, with a scattered wintry showers affecting the northern half of the country by the end of the day. Highest temperatures just 1 to 4 degrees, with just light northwesterly breezes.

Outlook

The cold weather will continue through the rest of next week with further severe frosts and low daytime temperatures. On Monday night wintry showers, which will be mostly snow, will affect many parts of the country, but especially Ulster and the northern parts of Leinster and Connacht. Northerly winds setting in during Tuesday and although many places will be dry and bright during the day, Ulster and North Connacht will again be affected by wintry showers. As the winds turn northeasterly on Wednesday the east of the country will be more affected by the showers than elsewhere. But there is also the possibility of more widespread snow during Thursday as well. Most of the showers disappear for next weekend but the days and nights stay as cold as ever.

Our man in Havana

So tomorrow night looks good for us in the midlands.

Sierra Oscar

Bond-007 wrote: »

So tomorrow night looks good for us in the midlands.

At last!;)

ffarrell

Showers for NORTH Midlands, Dublin and Northwards again.;)....Not Tipperary....that is Munster.

Our man in Havana

Depends on where in Tipperary you are. Some parts of it esp in TN are in the Midlands. The weather does not respect county boundaries.

jenzz

Currently dp of -3.0 & temp of 3.6 but its bitter here today - the get into your feet cold..... very bright too..a pretty day

Our man in Havana

Not a bad day here in South Laois. +3 outside and sunny.

Mobhi1

mad DIY wrote: »

I'm only round the corner from D.12. We got one inch (2.5cm) of proper snow on New Years Eve.

2.5cm in Glasnevin on New Year's Eve. I would have thought Swords would have been similar.

Su Campu

Today's models are siding towards a surpression of precipitation on Thursday, with an Atlantic anticyclone muscling its way in over us from the west. The GFS has this most pronounced, the ECMWF and UKMO not so much, they keeping pressure a bit lower and still the chance for some precipitation.

But in the next few runs it will be interesting to see what cards they play. There is a helluva a Nor'easter going on in the northeastern US/Canadian maritimes at the moment. This is pushing warm air northwards towards mid-Atlantic, which is feeding the Greenland High and keeping it in place. Around Wednesday is crucial, as another Nor'ester develops, feeding more warm air northwards. It's uncertain what this will do, as this upper high could cut-off and keep the Greenland anticyclone in place, enhancing the chance of the cold airmasses staying far enough west for us, or on the other hand, it may not cut-off, instead leaving a strong omega block in the eastern Atlantic, which would keep all the cold to the east of us, and have us in a stable scenario.

The models have the upper High cut-off, but then rejoin the main zonal flow later, forming the omega block. Keep an eye on the next few runs to see which scenario wins out, as this will set the stage for our weather Friday and the weekend.

WolfeIRE

Bond-007 wrote: »

So tomorrow night looks good for us in the midlands.

That band of showers will die as it travels south. There is a fresh run at 3.30 today. Will see if that downgrades or upgrades the situation.

At the moment, affected areas will be western and northern connaught, Ulster, North and western munster and North Leinster

ninebeanrows

Enough lads.

OwenC, please take everything on the chin.

You are enthusiastic but at times quite annoying.

Anymore annoying posts and you will be getting a infraction or weeks ban.

A very interesting country tracks forecast for the week ahead presented by the excelent Thomas on BBC one at lunchtime if any of you saw it?

On late tuesday and wenesday the graphics plastered Eastern Ireland with snow and obviously hammered Eastern Britain and they were warning of a snow storm moving into the London area from the near continent on friday.
It's uncertain he said and that there would be updates but it could deposit a lot of snow in london...airport closing snow.

WolfeIRE

Nice line of showers streaming into Dundalk/Newry area. Anyone up there to report on same?

http://www.met.ie/weathermaps/radar/WEB_radar_201001031345.gif

Our man in Havana

Any one got a link to the BBC forecast?