Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Kippure

Does any body know whos responsibility it is to clear the road from killikee car park to glencree and if so does any one think they will clear it.

The road is basically gone from about the end of the forest.

They,ll need a john deer to clear that road, a jcb would be tough work.

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

Does any body know whos responsibility it is to clear the road from killikee car park to glencree and if so does any one think they will clear it.

The road is basically gone from about the end of the forest.

They,ll need a john deer to clear that road, a jcb would be tough work.

Usually if people want things like that done it's the locals that have to organise it.In rural areas,it will be the local farmers with loading shovels.

danni2

Wow what a forecast that Bond-007 posted, I will be going to England on Wednesday and will be staying in Kent for the rest of the week and weekend, the only thing im worried about is that if the roads are too bad on Wednesday on my way to shannon airport I may be forced to postpone my flight.

jenzz

Su Campu wrote: »

Generally, all other things being equal, the lowest the air temperature can fall is to its dewpoint, at which point condensation will occur, releasing latent heat, and stopping the temperature falling any more.

So with a dewpoint of -3.7°C, the lowest air temperature you can expect is also -3.7°C, assuming there is very little wind to blow in air of a different dewpoint.

The ground of course could get several degrees less.

I think this is the coldest we have had so -3.7 dp - weve been hovering around 0 last few days ..

francie BradyII

We are too sheltered by england to get any serious snow. it's just going to be another week of annoying road conditions for us

WolfeIRE

Pangea wrote: »

Doesnt look like the north or west will see much snow, maybe on monday night but after that it seems to be all east , a nice forecast from bbc , he looks identical to that rte bloke alright,

on the flipside, most forecasts from BBC have gone pearshaped this far out in the last month or so. The slightest change in the set-up could see snow fall anywhere in Ireland from tomorrow night onwards, although admittedly the east will do quite well as the week moves on.

The ensembles do indicate the potential of more organised precip along the west and North west coast from Tuesday onwards, particularly Thursday.

Althogh its far out, next Sunday looks like delivering another one of those southern fronts - this time into an already cold airmass.
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-2-180.png?12

This is about as likely as the SE event in England so people should not lose hope of seeing snow.

ninebeanrows

francie BradyII wrote: »

We are too sheltered by england to get any serious snow. it's just going to be another week of annoying road conditions for us

Never underestimate the Irish sea, our reporters in Wicklow will be lapping it up come Tuesday afternoon

Showers will strike from the east coast south of Howth head with them scattered in N Dublin/ Meath/ Louth.

That is until the winds swing to a direct easterly late Thursday/ Friday/ Saturday where the snow showers will be widespread in the east.

But there is much more chance of prolonged heavy snow during Tuesday/Wednesday in the east, lets hope the Irish sea can create a PL or something similar.

As for tomorrow i am very interested in this front moving south falling as snow, unlike the last weak attempt this looks stronger and temperature condtions look much better aswell.

Kippure

Deleted User wrote: »

Usually if people want things like that done it's the locals that have to organise it.In rural areas,it will be the local farmers with loading shovels.

I see i the news there still going on about sallys gap been closed?????

As long as this cold spell goes, sallys gap and all other roads around that route wont be open till march at this rate.

Just in relation to the gfs 12z and the question as to what I meant earlier about it going to town on precip.
It's basically pepping up that front along the East [and west] coast with snow.
I doubt it will be all snow on the coast but we'll see,it might be but certainly it would give a decent fall on hills if the gfs is right.

It gets mad altogether in the East and south east on this run in the following 3 days.
The UKMO is similar.

I'm sure SA will be along with the fullest possible picture soon.

Quite exciting!

By the way that country tracks forecast doesn't ever pay any attention to Ireland.I just watch it for a broad outline and to put a voice to the ukmo thoughts.
It's the charts that pain the irish picture and the UKMO don't really bother with a public for tv consumption interpretation of them.
They reserve that for the private conferences they have with the other met services including Glasnevin.

maquiladora

12Z UKMO precip at 48 hours :

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

on the flipside, most forecasts from BBC have gone pearshaped this far out in the last month or so. The slightest change in the set-up could see snow fall anywhere in Ireland from tomorrow night onwards, although admittedly the east will do quite well as the week moves on.

The ensembles do indicate the potential of more organised precip along the west and North west coast from Tuesday onwards, particularly Thursday.

Althogh its far out, next Sunday looks like delivering another one of those southern fronts - this time into an already cold airmass.
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-2-180.png?12

This is about as likely as the SE event in England so people should not lose hope of seeing snow.

if it does come off, let's hope the winds are coming from the south east, then it should be good for inland areas- especially those further to the north west, however if the system is coming from the south west and pushes fairly far north, then despite how cold it may be ahead of the front, i think it'll be the same story as before with things going the wrong side of marginal for many on low ground.

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

I see i the news there still going on about sallys gap been closed?????

As long as this cold spell goes, sallys gap and all other roads around that route wont be open till march at this rate.

Thats just lazy handy journalism to pad out a report.
They probably haven't a clue where the kilakee carpark is..or that you can get a finer pint in the blue light than johnny foxes with a more genuine fire going!

WolfeIRE

ME UPDATE

National Forecast


03 January 2010 16:29

Today Very cold tonight. Widespread hard frost, icy conditions in places. Risk of some freezing fog patches also - mainly in the north and west. Temperatures 0 C or lower virtually everywhere, falling below - 4 C on a widespread scale and reaching - 8 or - 9 C in some sheltered parts. Dry in general. Isolated wintry showers on some eastern and southern coasts, dying out out overnight. Scattered wintry showers developing on the north coast later tonight or early tomorrow.


Tomorrow

Continuing very cold tomorrow. Scattered wintry showers spreading southwards across Ulster and north Connacht and perhaps into parts of north Leinster - these could increase the risk of icy conditions even where they fall as rain or sleet. Staying largely or completely dry otherwise, though with frost and ice lingering in places despite sunshine in many areas. Highest temperatures 0 to + 5 C.

Outlook

The cold weather will continue through the rest of next week with further severe frosts and low daytime temperatures. On Monday night wintry showers, which will be mostly snow, will affect many parts of the country, but especially Ulster and the northern parts of Leinster and Connacht. Northerly winds setting in during Tuesday and although many places will be dry and bright during the day, Ulster and North Connacht will again be affected by wintry showers. As the winds turn northeasterly on Wednesday the east of the country will be more affected by the showers than elsewhere. But there is also the possibility of more widespread snow during Thursday as well. Most of the showers disappear for next weekend but the days and nights stay as cold as ever.

Kippure

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats just lazy handy journalism to pad out a report.
They probably haven't a clue where the kilakee carpark is..or that you can get a finer pint in the blue light than johnny foxes with a more genuine fire going!

Lmao ..True

jenzz

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats just lazy handy journalism to pad out a report.
They probably haven't a clue where the kilakee carpark is..or that you can get a finer pint in the blue light than johnny foxes with a more genuine fire going!

+1

snaps

danni2 wrote: »

Wow what a forecast that Bond-007 posted, I will be going to England on Wednesday and will be staying in Kent for the rest of the week and weekend, the only thing im worried about is that if the roads are too bad on Wednesday on my way to shannon airport I may be forced to postpone my flight.

Im off to Essex on Friday via knock!

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

Just in relation to the gfs 12z and the question as to what I meant earlier about it going to town on precip.
It's basically pepping up that front along the East [and west] coast with snow.
I doubt it will be all snow on the coast but we'll see,it might be but certainly it would give a decent fall on hills if the gfs is right.

It gets mad altogether in the East and south east on this run in the following 3 days.
The UKMO is similar.

I'm sure SA will be along with the fullest possible picture soon.

Quite exciting!

By the way that country tracks forecast doesn't ever pay any attention to Ireland.I just watch it for a broad outline and to put a voice to the ukmo thoughts.
It's the charts that pain the irish picture and the UKMO don't really bother with a public for tv consumption interpretation of them.
They reserve that for the private conferences they have with the other met services including Glasnevin.

yes, as you say it gives an overall view of how things will pan out- and i have to say, from all the time i've been watching the bbc weather, it usually is more accurate than the irish weather in regard to how things will pan out.

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z UKMO precip at 48 hours :

I'll jinx this now.
But thats a whoppingly good precip chart for snow lovers with the m2 buoy being in negative dewpoint territory which I assume it will be given the air mass and that the iffy atlantic mix from mondaynight/early tuesday will have passed.
It's a total now cast though as to where these showers make land fall.
Some could have a major treat and others nothing.

It could make new years eve and morning look like frost in comparison :pac:

There I've jinxed it now... !

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, as you say it gives an overall view of how things will pan out- and i have to say, from all the time i've been watching the bbc weather, it usually is more accurate than the irish weather in regard to how things will pan out.

Yes but in all my decades since a chap watching it [renamed so many times] it always undercooks snow precip in Eastern Ireland in an Easterly for more than likely the reason I stated.
It usually shows somethings there but thats all.
IME if it shows something,it's going to get rough!

There I've treble jinxed it now.

To be honest I wouldn't be at all surprised if the showery precip went well inland next week after tuesday but we'll see.

There I've really jinxed it now.

danni2

snaps wrote: »

Im off to Essex on Friday via knock!

Wow if the forecast for Friday were to come off there's a chance your flight will be diverted!

danni2

danni2 wrote: »

Wow if the forecast for Friday were to come off there's a chance your flight will be diverted!

to cork

darkman2

The UKMO is shown at a far lower resolution then the other models though which has to be taken into account. The Wicklow and Wexford Coasts look good for snow from Tuesday. It's not convincing for Dublin Northward just yet.

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

There I've jinxed it now... !

And at 60 hours it looks great for the SE too...

ninebeanrows

Here is my thoughts with regard to snow risk.

Tuesday 1500hrs to Wednesday 2100hrs only.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4500/risksnow.gif

patneve

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here is my thoughts with regard to snow risk.

Tuesday 1500hrs to Wednesday 2100hrs only.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4500/risksnow.gif

Very optimistic (maybe too much) in my opinion...but brave call anyway

plein de force

big call there weathercheck, hope you're right

yogidc26

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here is my thoughts with regard to snow risk.

Tuesday 1500hrs to Wednesday 2100hrs only.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4500/risksnow.gif

I hope this comes true

Does anyone know were I can pick up a toboggan around Wicklow or Bray think the kids will need it next week

Wibbler

Weathercheck wrote: »

Umm
If so we are facing our severest week of winter cold since 1987, and the longevity of the spell looks like surpassing even that event.

I don't remember the cold spell in 1987, WC. What was that like? I do remember a period when the Grand Canal froze near the Lyon's Tea factory which may have been it.

glossy

happy enough with that one 3-10 cm will do very nicely. more to teen side though

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

The UKMO is shown at a far lower resolution then the other models though which has to be taken into account. The Wicklow and Wexford Coasts look good for snow from Tuesday. It's not convincing for Dublin Northward just yet.

It's probably too soon to be looking at the wol Nae for tuesday wenesday thursday?
I've lost the link.
Can you post a graphic if you have it?