Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Snowman10

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here is my thoughts with regard to snow risk.

Tuesday 1500hrs to Wednesday 2100hrs only.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4500/risksnow.gif

Jezz I hope your right there!!!!

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here is my thoughts with regard to snow risk.

Tuesday 1500hrs to Wednesday 2100hrs only.

That would be nice. :pac:

I have a feeling that won't come to pass though.

tomcosgrave

Weathercheck, I think that is ludicrous. I'll believe it when I see it!
I say between 1 and 5 cms on average, nationwide, with 10cms on the mountains.

wah wah wah !!
WC you have me in the 20 to 30cm's bracket.
I'll get none at all now :eek::D:eek:

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

wah wah wah !!
WC you have me in the 20 to 30cm's bracket.
I'll get none at all now :eek::D:eek:

Thats the kiss of death alrite. :P

UKMO 12Z is looking very good for your area though....

pistolpetes11

Wibbler wrote: »

I don't remember the cold spell in 1987, WC. What was that like? I do remember a period when the Grand Canal froze near the Lyon's Tea factory which may have been it.

It was frozen around Crumlin to Portebello this year around xmas

WolfeIRE

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here is my thoughts with regard to snow risk.

Tuesday 1500hrs to Wednesday 2100hrs only.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/4500/risksnow.gif

You must be really expecting the Irish Sea to deliver on wednesday? Winds don't really take on a NE or E flow until wed am.

I reckon you could add west clare and north kerry, perhaps west limerick and North Tipp, into the mix for 1-3cm in the same period. Most of Ulster and all of Connaught will see snow too. Not too sure where the 4-8inches of snow is going to come from in the South East between now and Wed night.

tomcosgrave

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Weathercheck, I think that is ludicrous. I'll believe it when I see it!
I say between 1 and 5 cms on average, nationwide, with 10cms on the mountains.

In fairness no one could know.
But the synoptics are a thousand times better than new years eve and look what happened then?
South Dublin certainly widely got 5cms.
So I think it's overly pessimistic to suggest thats all they'll get next week or south of there to be honest.

Scubadevils

Thats not enough for my area WC, can you up that please to 20-30?

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

wah wah wah !!
WC you have me in the 20 to 30cm's bracket.
I'll get none at all now :eek::D:eek:

My circle was planned on being an indicator to mountainous areas around Wicklow area:D:D:o;)

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

It's probably too soon to be looking at the wol Nae for tuesday wenesday thursday?
I've lost the link.
Can you post a graphic if you have it?

It's not updated yet.

GFS at a slightly higher resolution is probrably quite close to the UKMO.

snaps

Temp dropping nicely here tonight, high of 2.3c today and now -1.7c and falling.

Wibbler

Slimity wrote: »

That is a seriously snowy forecast!

Snow lovers in the SE of the UK are lucky barstewards going by that forecast.

Su Campu

Deleted User wrote: »

It's probably too soon to be looking at the wol Nae for tuesday wenesday thursday?
I've lost the link.
Can you post a graphic if you have it?

Here it is for Tuesday.....

Johnny1999

might have to go to dundalk tommorow, is there any snow up there?

ninebeanrows

The moral of the story is dont underestimate the Irish sea, the only hurdle stopping us from getting a nice fall in the east on Tuesday/Wednesday is a veering of winds to more of the north.

I would like a little low to swing more in to central England to kink the flow more ENE than the NNE we have at present.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Not too sure where the 4-8inches of snow is going to come from in the South East between now and Wed night.

I and most of North wexford got 3 to 5 inches on new years eve into new years morning.
The irish sea is a monster shower creator with the right airmass,theres no doubt about it.
Remember the 36hrs of thunderstorms that Dublin got from a cold air mass over the irish sea in october 03...

Never under estimate what happens in a true unstable Easterly or north easterly when all things needed are full filled.
The fetch is bullseye potentially for wexford.

But I agree in the northerly element,then north facing coasts of the west and near the west coast should see a dump.

Jeepers at this rate I've jinxed it so much that I'll be wearing a t-shirt and swimming in the sea next week :eek:

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

Jeepers at this rate I've jinxed it so much that I'll be wearing a t-shirt and swimming in the sea net week :eek:

you'be probably just jinxed your summerly dip in the sea now too :pac:

Regarding the SE set up that WC referred to. I would agree that such amounts could be seen in the period up to Friday but prob not before wed at 9 based on the most recent ensembles. As you said though, the Irish Sea takes on a life of its own so maybe...

Su Campu

The latest 17Z TAFs make no mention of snow showers for the next 24hrs, only sleet for Cork Airport this evening.

Wibbler

Weathercheck wrote: »

the only hurdle stopping us from getting a nice fall in the east on Tuesday/Wednesday is a veering of winds to more of the north.

..which is no doubt a certainty

Duiske

Weathercheck wrote: »

My circle was planned on being an indicator to mountainous areas around Wicklow area:D:D:o;)

Yea, I'd only give high ground around Arklow a chance. Strange, but that area seems to be jinxed when it comes to heavy snow at lower levels. Wonder why ?

Mr.Boots

Deleted User wrote: »

I and most of North wexford got 3 to 5 inches on new years eve into new years morning.
The irish sea is a monster shower creator with the right airmass,theres no doubt about it.
Remember the 36hrs of thunderstorms that Dublin got from a cold air mass over the irish sea in october 03...

Never under estimate what happens in a true unstable Easterly or north easterly when all things needed are full filled.
The fetch is bullseye potentially for wexford.

But I agree in the northerly element,then north facing coasts of the west and near the west coast should see a dump.

Jeepers at this rate I've jinxed it so much that I'll be wearing a t-shirt and swimming in the sea next week :eek:

Drove thorugh Arklow on New years eve/day (3am ish)
...it looked more like 3cm maybe a little more...but dont think it was anywhere near 3 inches....maybe up in the hills????

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

Here it is for Tuesday.....

Dry so..
Thanks wc
Ach I hadnt seen wc's timeline.
It's more believable if the timeline ran to say friday.

More jinx said auld jinx when young jinx was born.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

The moral of the story is dont underestimate the Irish sea, the only hurdle stopping us from getting a nice fall in the east on Tuesday/Wednesday is a veering of winds to more of the north.

I would like a little low to swing more in to central England to kink the flow more ENE than the NNE we have at present.

I think this is a bit more like it;)

kenskool

so will dublin/dublin mountains see fresh snow this week???;)

ninebeanrows

kenskool wrote: »

so will dublin/dublin mountains see fresh snow this week???;)

Yes That i can guarantee

Mr.Boots

Mr.Boots wrote: »

Drove thorugh Arklow on New years eve/day (3am ish)
...it looked more like 3cm maybe a little more...but dont think it was anywhere near 3 inches....maybe up in the hills????

Not in arklow town no.Roughly 2 inches in the town by the time the last streamer left around 9am.It was very heavy several times after 3 am and pelted down for a half hour at a time with flurries in between.
Much of that has thawed now.
Definitely 3 inches in and around coolgraney though upto thomastown and around that area anywhere from 2 miles inland and was heavier also south of the town towards north wexford..
4 to 5 up around 600ft.

kenskool

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes That i can guarantee

really?? i thought it was supposed to be dry and cold {no snow}

Scubadevils

I see on the latest met reports that Dublin airport is already down to -2 as at 18:00, that must be the lowest it has been for the time of day so far?

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Also, the M2 Buoy is down to 4c with a -3.1 dew point.

http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

But what use is it without snow....

DOCARCH

Looking at the current radar and thick cloud to my north at the moment, could be a couple of snow flurries on the east coast this evening - despite the high pressure? Fantastic DP of -3.4c here now. Even the M2 bouy has managed a DP of -3c and a temp of only 4c! Wind at M2 bouy seems to have changed from E to ENE over the last while.

I also see that some cloud has made it all the way across the north of the UK and a couple of light showers have popped up in the Morcombe Bay/Blackpool area.