Big Freeze Discussion [Happy New Year]

Snowaddict

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

That is being discussed here among other things. I am of the opinion that there won't be any significant amounts tonight. i.e. 3 cm at the very max in very localised spots. 1 cm generally. A bit like new year's eve perhaps.


As likely as it is, what makes you claim that this is guaranteed? Surely that's knowledge that no mortal can know? Even if it is 99% likely, it's not guaranteed.

And why are you talking about Fantasy Island (charts that are unrealistic, and almost fantastical, which predict weather in a few days or even further out) charts when they are so unlikely to verify as you rightly point out? Given the percentages, I could quite rightly point out that in my opinion, the Greenland high will not link up with the Scandi high but will sink southwards and leave us with cold foggy days. But why does no one talk about that outcome, if it's a possibility?

Cold weather is guaranteed out until Wednesday, with an increasing risk of snowfall. Now I didn't say that snowfall is guaranteed by any means, the cold weather is, there is just an increasing risk of snowfall. It is guaranteed because we already have all of the Key elements in place. A significant area of blocking high pressure centred over Greenland, with the Jet Stream displaced very far to the south, relative to other winters of late. In addition, we already have the beginning of the formation of an area of low pressure to the North of Scandinavia. The general theme of very cold conditions up until Wednesday is guaranteed, because all of the large scale features are already in place to support this.

With regard to the snowfall, yes that could well happen. Even at T+24, snowfall is one of the most difficult elements to predict. As I said & many others have said, it's only an increasing risk, because of the formation of an unstable northeasterly flow.

I would think that T+120 is the beginning of the FI/More Reliable boundary, the majority of what has been discussed above is within T+120. T+168 was shown because I was stating how guidance was not showing a mild incursion towards the end of the week, as was being suggested.

Regarding the Greenland/Scandi High, what percentages are these? The evolution is based solely upon a favourable Jet Axis. A large portion of the GLH will actually decline, sink southwards and become absorbed into an area of HP centred in the central southern North Atlantic. It is the motion of the Jet Stream that allows the Scandi High to form and back westwards & continue to strengthen. Again, I have clearly stated the risk of this not happening above, so I do think it is being discussed.

SA

Doyler1981

Rain mixed with snow here now!

dedon

Is there any chance we will get some snow in Limerick this evening or tonight? Is that band of showers due to push down?

G-Money

I haven't a clue what most of the posts are saying. I just want to know when this bloody cold weather will f**k off.

I'm in the Stillorgan area of Dublin and there *seems to be a thaw on. All of the trees and houses are back to their normal colour and the snow seems to be evaporating.

Hopefully if the temp gets up to +5c tomorrow, it will help move things along too.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Weren't the BBC predictive sequences meant to be taken more seriously than model output, as they had human input? Black Briar and others have also said this.

No.They are sometimes quite wrong
They don't pay much heed to Ireland.
This was true even in the 80's when they'd stick a symbol on Eastern Ireland with one flake on it and put 3 flakes on the ones in Eastern England even though Dublin might be having heavy sea effect showers.
They give a broad national picture for the UK.
Their local broadcasts are much more specefic for regions and often say a lot more on snow than the national ones.

I'm going to point out here that I still do expect very cold conditions to prevail over Ireland in the coming week. I just want to avoid the assumption that snow *has* to follow cold air wherever it goes. The risks of this have already been illustrated by recent weeks and days.

One point I've always made on this forum since it started nearly 6 years ago is the following and it's worth repeating.

Easterlies are useless unless they are sustained for at least 4 or 5 days.It's only after that that we see real excitement.
We are staring down the barrel of those kind of synoptics regardless of whether it's East or North east.
Jan '87 brought little features down from the north east with increasingly cold air behind and in fact as I've said many times here sea level river freezing cold despite the wind coming off the sea.
Feb '91 and it was a sustained Easterly.I recall features reaching these shores all the way from the Baltic.

Bear in mind it's cold already.
Here in strong sunshine and even in a westerly , we were hard set to peak at 4c in coastal wicklow-so cold features have less work on their hands.

Now of course from a snow loving point of view the whole thing could go tits up...however a little leverage to people who have experienced what these types of synoptics can do would be nice.

These synoptics are very very difficult to forecast but NOTICE the trend in the Met Eireann forecasts.
They are increasingly using the word snow and expect to hear those glorious words "outbreaks of snow" next week.

Philcan

Hi,

I have been following these threads since mid December and feel I am becoming addicted. At times I have got dangerously close to actually learning about the weather, thanks to great posts from Su, WC and others.

Anyhow I now feel I am ready to make forecasts. My forecast is as follows:

Mid next Week: some snow showers on the east coast....nothing to get too excited about.

Next Saturday (approx 2pm): Heavy and prolonged snow for most of the country leading to the biggest snow event ever seen in modern Ireland. (The only place to miss out on the snow will be Coleraine in NI.)

March 3rd (approx 10am): A thaw sets in.

My forecast is based on the tea leaves from a split tea bag from my morning cup of tea.

The leaves also predict that Ipswich will win today in the FA cup and England will win the World Cup this summer.

Thanks

MayoForSam

Raining here in Galway - last thing we wanted, it will freeze on the roads tonight and they will be lethal in the morning.

If its going to snow, then I would prefer a good dumping (not too much likelihood there) - freezing rain is the worst possible outcome from this weather spell :mad:.

knoximus

Sat 2 January

All parts of Britain and Ireland are in for a lot of increasingly cold and snowy weather as we go through the next week with some potentially severe winter weather developing across our shores. We would advise people to prepare themselves for a spell of winter weather that's not been seen for many years as severe frosts and heavy snowfalls become the main feature during next week.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

lucernarian

With respect BB, we have both stared down the barrel of these synoptics before, to come away empty-handed. I remember the 05/06 winter as an example of just how frustrating forecasting can be. Exceptional cold is still only being forecast in FI. A more "normal" cold is what we can at least expect for the first half of this week. The sort of cold that could just as likely give hail or sleet showers as snow for much of that period. (the -10 850hPa air is not always around) Or more likely, that convection is stifled by ridging or unfavourable wind directions. I haven't seen any fax charts yet that show troughs approaching from the east.

So only unorganised precipitation is being forecast by the UKMO in the next couple of days or so, for the Pale anyway and southwards of that. That can deliver, I remember 3rd January 08 as a great example. But it wasn't the sort of snow that made people abandon cars or anything like that! Serious events are rare by their nature.

Finally, these NE winds are still forecasts. After what's happened in recent weeks, I'll have to believe it when I see it. The true easterly winds are still dependent on the Scandi HP being born and being positioned right.

Lumi

MayoForSam wrote: »

Raining here in Galway - last thing we wanted, it will freeze on the roads tonight and they will be lethal in the morning.

If its going to snow, then I would prefer a good dumping (not too much likelihood there) - freezing rain is the worst possible outcome from this weather spell :mad:.

There are some angry looking clouds to the north of here but skies are clear over the city. There's been a slight thaw but frost remains in the shade

Su Campu

Just had a rain shower briefly turn to wet snow. Casement reported snow at 2pm.

Currently in Celbridge T0.6°C, DP -0.3°C

Supercell

Light snow flurries on and off here, definate drip drip of a slow thaw too but temp already dropping so expect the snow to turn hard and icy again soon.

Mothman

10 second rain shower, but temp has cooled 1C since and sun has appeared again.
A good thaw today except for the cold ground in shade. A lot of wet surfaces that'll probably freeze tonight
3.7/0.5C atm

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

With respect BB, we have both stared down the barrel of these synoptics before, to come away empty-handed.

I've experienced them in real life so feel I have a licence to talk about what they can do and what I think they will do.
Previously on boards I've said that a particular projected Easterly is no good and such and such but now we appear to be getting a sustained blast from both the East and NE at times and I don't see that ending before next week end.
I've a higher confidence in that by far than I do in having any stab at what next weekends weather is.
So in a nutshell it would appear that one vital missing ingredient to previous continental flows is being at least fulfilled for the next 5 days and thats exciting.

On a side note,I got a call from some friends who I couldn't join because I'm working today.
They are up on a mountain at about 1800ft asl at the moment in south wicklow a few miles from me and report level snow [not drifts] of over 2 feet in depth.

inabina

Supercell wrote: »

Light snow flurries on and off here, definate drip drip of a slow thaw too but temp already dropping so expect the snow to turn hard and icy again soon.

sandyford, temp has dropped from 3.8 to 2.0 in last 50 mins:D

JonnyM

any chance of snow in the east south east next few days??

inabina

JonnyM wrote: »

any chance of snow in the east south east next few days??

you will find all the answers in previous posts today! yes in short.

Supercell

JonnyM wrote: »

any chance of snow in the east south east next few days??

I live in the South East, it is snowing here now, so I'll go with an affirmative.

Tabnabs

A few quick light/moderate snow showers in Dublin 24, as they clear south towards Kippure(/Everest )

JonnyM

inabina wrote: »

you will find all the answers in previous posts today! yes in short.

cheers just didnt want to thral through 28 pages of it :pac::P

ffarrell

Still just under 1 degree here in Castleknock in West Dublin and as white and icy as it was (apparently) on New Year's eve. Still approx 5 cm on lying snow and ice in estates but the main roads aroung me are still dangerous and slushy/icy. Enjoy:D the rain Galway. This snow is so dry like Last February when we had about 12cm that you could roll arond in it and still be dry!

LookingFor

Hasn't been a spot of preciptiation in D15.

Snow etc. holding on fine here.

Beginning to think it's a good thing we haven't seen anything from that precip...if it was going to be rain...

mad DIY

Philcan wrote: »

Hi,

I have been following these threads since mid December and feel I am becoming addicted. At times I have got dangerously close to actually learning about the weather, thanks to great posts from Su, WC and others.

Anyhow I now feel I am ready to make forecasts. My forecast is as follows:

Mid next Week: some snow showers on the east coast....nothing to get too excited about.

Next Saturday (approx 2pm): Heavy and prolonged snow for most of the country leading to the biggest snow event ever seen in modern Ireland. (The only place to miss out on the snow will be Coleraine in NI.)

March 3rd (approx 10am): A thaw sets in.

My forecast is based on the tea leaves from a split tea bag from my morning cup of tea.

The leaves also predict that Ipswich will win today in the FA cup and England will win the World Cup this summer.

Thanks

:eek: Where can I get magic tea leaves like those..?

snaps

turned very mild here in mayo, all frost melted and its been raining. Not what i was expecting

glossy

Philcan wrote: »

Hi,

I have been following these threads since mid December and feel I am becoming addicted. At times I have got dangerously close to actually learning about the weather, thanks to great posts from Su, WC and others.

Anyhow I now feel I am ready to make forecasts. My forecast is as follows:

Mid next Week: some snow showers on the east coast....nothing to get too excited about.

Next Saturday (approx 2pm): Heavy and prolonged snow for most of the country leading to the biggest snow event ever seen in modern Ireland. (The only place to miss out on the snow will be Coleraine in NI.)

March 3rd (approx 10am): A thaw sets in.

My forecast is based on the tea leaves from a split tea bag from my morning cup of tea.

The leaves also predict that Ipswich will win today in the FA cup and England will win the World Cup this summer.

Thanks

thanks,
please dont let that be true or we never hear the bloodly end of it, arrrrrrrrrrrrrrh

ffarrell

mad DIY wrote: »

:eek: Where can I get magic tea leaves like those..?

England wouldn't win an argument never mind the World Cup. Spectacular underachievers. One one World Cup (1966) when hardly anybody else was playing in it and on home turf with the help of a bribed ref, never to be seen or heard of again. Have never been in a final of the World Cup or European cup since....that is how good they are. France or Italy to win again...they are used to winning tournaments now or at least getting to the finals...!!!!!:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:...By the way pissing rain in London as .....usual....

mad DIY

glossy wrote: »

thanks,
please dont let that be true or we never hear the bloodly end of it, arrrrrrrrrrrrrrh

Good point Some slightly modified magic tea leaves needed then:D

HashSlinging

Any Mods out there can you tell me are we going to get any snow in Wicklow today.?

Edit just seen the page prev.. thanks!

Elmo5

Temp is about 1 degree here but thawing a bit since lunch time and we had a sleet shower. Roads gritted thank God and the supermarket is like a cattle mart.

Lumi

Raining in Galway. I'm suprised that the precipitation made it this far south. The roads will be a bugger later ....

mad DIY

Significant thaw under way in D6. I'd say about half the snow that fell on New Years Eve has now melted away.

arctictree

Snowing on and off here for the last hour. Temp has dropped a bit to +1.4c

force eleven

Light rain shower here, most frost gone, just a few bits left in the shelter, temperature 2.8 C.

lucernarian

Deleted User wrote: »

I've experienced them in real life so feel I have a licence to talk about what they can do and what I think they will do.
Previously on boards I've said that a particular projected Easterly is no good and such and such but now we appear to be getting a sustained blast from both the East and NE at times and I don't see that ending before next week end.
I've a higher confidence in that by far than I do in having any stab at what next weekends weather is.
So in a nutshell it would appear that one vital missing ingredient to previous continental flows is being at least fulfilled for the next 5 days and thats exciting.

On a side note,I got a call from some friends who I couldn't join because I'm working today.
They are up on a mountain at about 1800ft asl at the moment in south wicklow a few miles from me and report level snow [not drifts] of over 2 feet in depth.

That's fair enough. I do have a licence aswell to speak from my own experiences, and any sustained NErly from beyond 5 days out is just simply FI right now. I've experienced what even a small wedge of <-6 850hpa air from Scandanavia can do, when it's dragged over a warm Irish Sea. Slack northerlies however are not going to cut it, and there's a real risk of that happening as the week progresses.

But that's the fun of it, it's a roll of the dice to see what areas are hit with it or not. The enjoyment I take out of being on this forum and making a forecast and discussing the options is great, even if they don't follow through:D Mind you, I always go for the most likely option from what my guts and experience are telling me. I'm liking tomorrow for some snow but the chances of heavy falls of snow making land off the Irish Sea is still on a knife edge IMO.

arctictree

Showers cleared, temp dropped now to +1.0c

SC, looks like there's a heavy spot of precip heading our way. Over North Kildare at the moment.

mad DIY

That precip showing on the radar over the Naas and Newbridge areas - is it falling as snow does anyone know, and what are the road conditions around there ?

squonk

In North Clare it was balmy earlier. Getting a bit cooler now. Can see the top of that cumulus giving rain to Galway. Not too bad here. Roads in a reasonable condition.

Elmo5

Really clouded over here now, sky a very dark grey. Starting to do something, looks a bit sleety...

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I do have a licence aswell to speak from my own experiences, and any sustained NErly from beyond 5 days out is just simply FI right now. I've experienced what even a small wedge of <-6 850hpa air from Scandanavia can do, when it's dragged over a warm Irish Sea. Slack northerlies however are not going to cut it, and there's a real risk of that happening as the week progresses.

Well what age are you?
1991 is 18 years ago - can you remember that or '87 ?
Because frankly theres been nothing like this ,including last february since those times.Whats forecast is very similar to both.
By the way both those spells were hit and miss for the snow but those under shower trains got tonnes of the stuff.

I'm pretty basic in requirements for bitter cold.
If we get the synoptics right and we're being told we have -8 to -10 850's and lower over us [Tomorrow!] fine but I always look upwind.
When you see snow cover over most of Europe and daytime maxima sub zero and in fact well below -5c...then you have the needed surface air feed to complete the picture.

I hear you on what is and what isn't FI but and heres the RUB against your [and I say this with respect] lack of experience of these things...We ARE actually locked into an East or North east flow for at least untill thursday of next week.
Model uncertainty after that is how we get out of it..
A week or two ago we were model wise in a much more fragile position [even though nature knew] and that was whether we were going to be locked into the flow we are entering.

There is now unprecedented model agreement for what we are in.It's how we get out of it is now where the disagreement lies.
Ergo relax-if decent falls of snow don't come to many [I've already had a surprise one] it will just be bad bad luck from a snow lovers point of view.
As it stands,850 temps over the sea,wind direction,Air source and sustained air source all point to snow especially in the East in my view.
Read MT's current thoughts on it if you don't believe mine.
His analysis to date has been very spot on.

ffarrell

Elmo5 wrote: »

Really clouded over here now, sky a very dark grey. Starting to do something, looks a bit sleety...

Very cold here now ..temperature has dropped to 0-5 degrees and getting cloudy. Hopefully some hail or snow but no sleet or rain....to cold for rain I suspect....hail, snow will do. No thaw at all here so far. Not the slightest.:D

Gonzo

no precipitation here so far today, no thaw either, infact the thaw was more noticeable yesterday where the sun melted the snow in the non-shaded fields.

Elmo5

Tis an icky wet snow that's falling here...

glossy

Elmo5 wrote: »

Really clouded over here now, sky a very dark grey. Starting to do something, looks a bit sleety...

was just going tp ost the same, hmmm whats happing up there

ffarrell

Better to have wet snow falling than 'wet' rain or sleet. Is it heavy??:)

Mental Mickey

Nothing falling here.............Dublin 20. Last nights fall hasn't really melted.

Gonzo

on the met eireann rader the showers are moving south east wards missing meath and most of Dublin however if you look closely on the Louth coastline it looks like showers are forming there and moving south-westwards approaching Co. Meath.

Elmo5

very light and has now stopped. sky looks really dark, all the lights in the house on!

maybe it'll be thunder snow

no such luck though I think!

Scubadevils

Been dry all day in Lusk with little thaw of the snow/hail mix covering.

Went for a stroll with the kids to the local shop today and the pavements and roads were lethal, slipping all over the place, especially crossing the roads. Amazed to see however the driving from some people... would really think that people would have more cop on and slow down with these conditions, so easy to hit some black ice on a corner and hurtle into a family such as mine walking to the shops. On that note, I read a post over on Netweather that I felt compelled to quote here...

What the models do show is very cold dangerous conditions. Cutting people out of cars is the worst part of my job, this morning many roads and a main duel carriageway into Cardiff were completely closed due to numerous accidents on the ice. what i see on these models today is percipitation falling at short notice on frozen surfaces. I can say with experience that gritting can fail for patches of road due to lumps of salt clogging up momentarily or percipitation washing it away from road then freezing.
It is not the white snow covered roads that catch you out as you can see it, its the normal roads you think are fine, speed up and it catches you out.
This is the weather i love cold and possibly snowy and the models show a dream come true, but there really is another side to this forthcoming period so when you look at the models and see this fantastic week plus ahead, take in what your seeing and remember it when driving. Rant over ( just horrible to attend these incidents)
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59482-general-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1689865

Drive safely people! Or preferably not at all if you don't have to.

Snowaddict

GME/DWD 12Z out to T+132..

Very unstable northeasterlies with various ''kinks'' in the flow indicating several features running down NE-SW, therefore definitely the potential for snowfall to penetrate inland.. To add to that, it has a direct Easterly flow developing between T+108 and T+132. 850mb temperatures ranging -7 to -11 throughout.

GFS 12Z

Is very keen on suggesting widespread snow in the East & Southeast on Tuesday.. It has been suggestive of this for some time now so something to watch closely nearer to the time..

SA

ellobee

mad DIY wrote: »

That precip showing on the radar over the Naas and Newbridge areas - is it falling as snow does anyone know, and what are the road conditions around there ?

Its rain!!!!,snow melting rapidly