Freezing Weather Discussion - Widespread Snow Tonight/Tuesday

owenc

yes we have had snow here about 2cm but its something temp is surprisingly -4c... is there another band coming tonight?

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Very overcast and sub zero
-0.1/-2.8C
Overnight min -1.8C

If I looked out other windows at the time I would have said partly cloudy.
Mostly clear and temp is dropping
-0.9/-3.5C

ciaran67

This weeks weather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=1;type=free;ct=31739~Dublin;sess=#forecast

MetLuver

darkman2 wrote: »

No but im very familiar with the problems on Yellow Walls. It was like walking a road in Siberia yesterday and not much better today. Cars skidding and not moving at the same time, pedestrians falling etc. It's very bad. The council are muppets.

Muppets is an understatement!!:(

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

If I looked out other windows at the time I would have said partly cloudy.
Mostly clear and temp is dropping
-0.9/-3.5C

Apart from clear skies on the far horizon here,it's totally dull and cloudy and sub zero here too.

-0.4c/-2.9c

Pangea

Ah met eireann are up and down like a yoyo, now they changed the showers of snow for tonight to rain sleet and snow, I dont care what anyone says, Met eireann change their forecasts on a day to day basis, while BBC get it spot on for their parts, and the only time i can expect snow is when bbc put out a warning for northern ireland for heavy snow.

MetLuver

owenc wrote: »

yes we have had snow here about 2cm but its something temp is surprisingly -4c... is there another band coming tonight?

Well done Owenc glad you got something, lets hope that system delivers more for you later this evening and tonight:D

owenc

MetLuver wrote: »

Well done Owenc glad you got something, lets hope that system delivers more for you later this evening and tonight:D

yes ill be happy if it comes tonight and delivers 15cm (like thats ever going to happen) and then somewhere i know would be shut... maybe...

ninebeanrows

Looking likely to be a a widespread fall off snow tonight across much of the country, reaching the middle of country by around 3/4am.

Totals are not likely to be huge but there should be widespread accumulations of 3cm and upto 10cm's in places.

Tiny warm sector could sleety it up in the northwest.

owenc

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking likely to be a a widespread fall off snow tonight across much of the country, reaching the middle of country by around 3/4am.

Totals are not likely to be huge but there should be widespread accumulations of 3cm and upto 10cm's in places.

Tiny warm sector could sleety it up in the northwest.

`
aww dont tell us that! To be honest with this snow lying these temps and nw predicting 90% chance of it snowing i'd say it hopefully will snow... were is the places most at risk at getting the most amount of snow?

maquiladora

Looks like a bit more precip on the 06Z GFS run, it's only out as far as Tuesday night but looks good.

francie BradyII

Why isn't RTE forecasting this snow? Is it so the goverment can say we didn't see it coming? Predictions on here are for 3cm - 10cm, that will bring the country to a standstill(hopefully)

owenc

francie BradyII wrote: »

Why isn't RTE forecasting this snow? Is it so the goverment can say we didn't see it coming? Predictions on here are for 3cm - 10cm, that will bring the country to a standstill(hopefully)

hopefully that happens then people do not have to go back to work etc till next week another week off would be brill!:eek: Hopefully we get alot more than last night we can still see grass its really slim snow..

rhonin

Snowing here now.

Su Campu

Yes the Arctic is on its way to us.

Jan Mayen sounding over the last 2 days shows H850 going from -9 to -20°C in a stiff northerly wind.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=np&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=01&FROM=0212&TO=0400&STNM=01001

Torshavn (Faroe Islands) is beginning to see cooling in the upper levels. The 12Z sounding today should show a big drop at all levels.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=np&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=01&FROM=0212&TO=0400&STNM=06011

Lerwick too

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2010&MONTH=01&FROM=0300&TO=0400&STNM=03005

Castor Bay (Lurgan) is still showing a cap at 00Z, with warm mid-upper levels. Tonight's 00Z sounding will be very important for us.




Meanwhile here's the 12Z Low Level Aviation chart for today. Dontchya just love Area B, moving south at 20knots, with SN (SNOW) forecast in it (not just SHSN - Snow Showers, but real SNOW!!!) And the trough along the northwest coast in Area C should bring localised light snow showers.




Belfast Aldergrove TAF gives a low chance of heavy snow showers from 5am tomorrow

TAF EGAA 040503Z 0406/0506 26005KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0406/0424 3000 -FZRA -SHRASN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0406/0418 BKN007 PROB30 TEMPO 0418/0424 1200 BR BKN003 BECMG 0421/0424 33012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0505/0506 0500 +SHSN BKN005 BKN010CB=

---

Derry/Eglington and Belfast City have freezing rain and sleet or snow showers for today

TAF EGAE 040802Z 0409/0418 26006KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025 TEMPO 0409/0418 3000 -FZRA -SHRASN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0409/0418 BKN007=

TAF EGAC 040802Z 0409/0418 26004KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025 TEMPO 0409/0418 3000 -FZRA -SHSN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0409/0418 BKN007=

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Dublin gives a low chance of light snow showers overnight from 2am

TAF EIDW 040500Z 0406/0506 VRB03KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 0406/0409 3000 -SHSN BKN010 BECMG 0409/0412 31008KT BECMG 0416/0418 27012KT PROB30 TEMPO 0502/0506 3000 -SHSN BKN008 BECMG 0504/0506 34010KT=

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Shannon gives a higher chance of longer spells of snow from 10pm tonight

TAF EINN 040500Z 0406/0506 03007KT 9999 FEW020 PROB30 0406/0411 2000 BR SCT003 BECMG 0411/0414 31007KT PROB40 TEMPO 0422/0506 2500 -SN SCT004 BKN008 BECMG 0502/0505 01009KT=

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Knock has a low chance of light snow showers from 3-11pm today, followed by moderate snow overnight

TAF EIKN 040500Z 0406/0506 36005KT 9999 FEW020 PROB30 0407/0411 2000 BR SCT003 BECMG 0412/0415 27010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0415/0423 2000 -SHSN BKN003 BKN012CB TEMPO 0423/0506 0600 SN SCT002 BKN006 BECMG 0501/0503 35012KT=

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Donegal chance of light snow showers from 10am today

EIDL LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 041000/041900 WIND VRB05KT BECMG 1012 28010KT VISIBILITY 9999 PROB40 TEMPO 1019 3000 WEATHER PROB40 TEMPO 1019 -SHSN CLOUD SCT022 PROB40 TEMPO 1019 BKN010 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

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Sligo sleet or snow showers from 11am

EISG LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 041000/041900 WIND VRB4KT BECMG 1114 29009KT VISIBILITY 8000 PROB40 TEMPO 1119 3000 WEATHER PROB40 TEMPO 1119 -SHRASN/-SHSN CLOUD SCT015 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1119 BKN010 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

---

MetLuver

owenc wrote: »

yes ill be happy if it comes tonight and delivers 15cm (like thats ever going to happen) and then somewhere i know would be shut... maybe...

ah you never know when snow will fall, the weather will do as it pleases one morning...(if you havent been lampost watching all night that is) you might wake up to a few inches, ill pray for snow in Coleraine as well as Navan tonight and hopefully that place you know will be shut;)

ninebeanrows

Also it does look like a trough/comma feature will approach from the north quickly after this front during Tuesday afternoon, perhaps down the east coast.

Exact track uncertain.

maquiladora

francie BradyII wrote: »

Why isn't RTE forecasting this snow? Is it so the goverment can say we didn't see it coming? Predictions on here are for 3cm - 10cm, that will bring the country to a standstill(hopefully)

I don't think the country will be brought to a standstill by "scattered wintry showers".

There is good potential for a dusting of snow in a lot of places and some decent snowfall in other places, on high ground for sure, but I wouldn't expect more than that. These events have an unfortunate habit of being frustrating half or non events at the last minute.

peasant

maquiladora wrote: »

These events have an unfortunate habit of being frustrating half or non events at the last minute.

on that note ....


...it just started r a i n i n g in Strandhill, Sligo :rolleyes:

(= Sligo Airport)

Elmer Blooker

I'm quite anxious after looking over this mornings charts. The Greenland high is sinking south later in the week and milder atlantic air is drifting over the top - the dreaded toppler!
If this Scandinavian high doesn't materialize then it's all over. All the charts seem to be in general agreement though that this high will build over Scandinavia. We're depending on it to hold back the Atlantic!

Shires

owenc wrote: »

hopefully that happens then people do not have to go back to work etc till next week another week off would be brill!:eek: Hopefully we get alot more than last night we can still see grass its really slim snow..

School yes, work no! When people cannot get to work it jepordises businesses, jobs and lives.

owenc

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think the country will be brought to a standstill by "scattered wintry showers".

There is good potential for a dusting of snow in a lot of places and some decent snowfall in other places, on high ground for sure, but I wouldn't expect more than that. These events have an unfortunate habit of being frustrating half or non events at the last minute.

isnt this a trough laarger than the one last night which was just showers?

owenc

Shires wrote: »

School yes, work no! When people cannot get to work it jepordises businesses, jobs and lives.

Don't worry my place wont shut we had 20cm one time and it was still open so this trough would need to get a hell of alot larger for snow larger than that if it even comes here considering its going se...

200motels

Snowaddict wrote: »

Morning Everyone

Introduction

Firstly, a few points. The overnight outputs, especially that of ECMWF is much better in the medium term with a more sustained Easterly flow. A rewned, fairly potent due Easterly flow, is now likely to be developing into the weekend. Also, the overnight ECMWF shows no sign of a breakdown again until T+240! UKMO 00Z is another excellent run, with a shortwave feature moving down across the country between T+96 T+120, undercutting, with a strong Easterly flow developing. Into the medium term there is, at present, no sign of a let up in these conditions, with renewed blocking quite likely from Scandinavia to Greenland, Ireland being under an Easterly flow.

Snowfall Distribution & Potential

What I find a bit perlexing about the latest Met Eireann update is that the overnight ECMWF 00Z Guidance is once again holiding firm about the snowfall threat, in Eastern and Southeastern areas in particular. With the risk as mentioned last evening for Western Atlantic Seaboard areas into Thursday, when a Shortwave feature will run down the country, hitting into the cold air in place, as a Blocking High builds over Scandinavia.

Here are some of the overnight ECMWF Precip Charts:

Tuesday Night



Wednesday Morning



Wednesday Afternoon



UKMO 00Z

Also holds constant regarding the snowfall risk. The main risk periods include the period from 01.00 to 07.00 tomorrow, when it models the cold front moving down across the country. In models this as remaining intact, all the way down, even strengthening in Eastern areas:



It also models a further risk of snowfall quite widely in the East and Southeast, later on Tuesday and into Wednesday, very much in line with the latest ECMWF guidance. Again, that's not to say that these are entirely correct but these latest runs are almost even better than the ones of last evening & do clearly suggest the potential for snowfall in the risk areas that were mentioned last night. Also, most model guidance now prolongs the Northeasterly flow into Thursday.

GFS 00Z is not as good into the medium term but I suspect it's picking up on a signal initially picked up upon by the other models and subsequently dropped, as overnight, all other NWP Guidance supports a renewed, potent Easterly flow developing towards Friday onwards.

Summary

In summary, the snowfall potential, as discussed last night largely holds firm on the vast majority of guidance. Again, there are no certainties in this setup, the evolution is complex and snowfall is very difficult to predict and model. From all of the available NWP Guidance, the risk of the overnight GFS 00Z evolution with much slacker conditions, is about 35%, with a solid 65% support for a renewed Easterly flow. Equally, it would be positive to see a fairly rapid reversion from GFS, preferably by later today. Some of the other Guidance has modelled this GFS evolution before, bus has subsequently dropped it. UKMO appears to be, by far, the most consistent at the moment.

SA

Going by your excellent analysis, we here in the city of no snow, could possibly get a dusting.

WolfeIRE

The UKMO and GFS are a big upgrade on last evening's runs.

There is no doubt that the potential for snowfall along the E and SE coast over the on Tuesday, wed and Thurs (at least) is significant. I am also surprsied at why ME have more or less ignored this potential in their latest report. They obviously have a hunch that it will not happen. Would love to know what they are basing their forecast on as the UKMO, in particular, shows widespread heavy and often prolonged wintry showers for the E and SE, stretching inland to Meath, Carlow, Kilkenny, Kildare, and Waterford.

Meanwhile, tonight also puts most of the country in line to receive at least a dusting. The UKMO shows an upgrade on last evening's run. Most of the country is in line for snow. I think inland parts of Connaught, Ulster and North Leinster will see the heaviest precipitation. Western and Northern Munster will also see heavy precip early tomorrow morn.

I reckon that the most serious potential for significant snow along the W and SW comes from the Thursday front that will at the very least affect western coastal areas. If this moves further inland then we could see some serious disruption there by the end of the week.

GavinH

Temp in Cork is -4.4 and rising. This band that will move down from the north, will it push too far east for it to affect Cork?

jambofc

a lite dusting of hail here overnight,-1/-3 at the mo and gone cloudy

my reading of this "event" tonight is that there will be some snow around but also a bit of rain/sleet,as this passes temp will drop more and then the north-north/east and then the east will see some more snow tomorrow.

200motels

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The UKMO and GFS are a big upgrade on last evening's runs.

There is no doubt that the potential for snowfall along the E and SE coast over the on Tuesday, wed and Thurs (at least) is significant. I am also surprsied at why ME have more or less ignored this potential in their latest report. They obviously have a hunch that it will not happen. Would love to know what they are basing their forecast on as the UKMO, in particular, shows widespread heavy and often prolonged wintry showers for the E and SE, stretching inland to Meath, Carlow, Kilkenny, Kildare, and Waterford.

Meanwhile, tonight also puts most of the country in line to receive at least a dusting. The UKMO shows an upgrade on last evening's run. Most of the country is in line for snow. I think inland parts of Connaught, Ulster and North Leinster will see the heaviest precipitation. Western and Northern Munster will also see heavy precip early tomorrow morn.

I reckon that the most serious potential for significant snow along the W and SW comes from the Thursday front that will at the very least affect western coastal areas. If this moves further inland then we could see some serious disruption there by the end of the week.

This is the Met Office chart for midnight.

ninebeanrows

200motels wrote: »

This is the Met Office chart for midnight.

See the triple point,

Warm front joining the cold front, just east of Dublin?

You want to be under that for the heaviest precip!

Cul a cnoic

Annagry in West Donegal had rain this morning, roads are very dangerous, a few miles down the road in Gweedore had a light dusting of snow. very cold.