Cold Spell Discussion: Widespread Snow Expected Overnight/Tuesday

Well they need a NE which is progged for later.
The air at 850 will be colder too so there should be more of them by then.
I'll believe it when I see it!

WolfeIRE

Johnny1999 wrote: »

according to the NRA website Kilkenny has dropped a degree in the past hour! How accurate is that site?

it has to be accurate as it feeds in to the Met system facilitated by the NRA for local authorities across the country. I am sure it is prone to breakdowns like any tech set up but I have found it to be spot on for my own local roads.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at the UK radar and obs from western Scotland (Stornoway gusting over 50 mph) would suggest that conditions will shortly deteriorate in Donegal and western NI and by about 1100 into Mayo and Roscommon, even parts of Galway. Some very heavy snow showers are likely with blustery NNE winds.

The trough is making slower progress in England than in the Irish Sea, which in a way will assist snow development for southeast Ireland (I figure, at least) because the developing northeast wind flow will have to take a wider turn around the slow-moving trough, and that will bring it towards Wicklow.

My instincts tell me that heavy snow will break out rather rapidly between noon and 3 p.m. across Dublin and Wicklow, let's see if that's right or wrong, but the speed with which the colder air is advecting at the critical levels above the surface will be met with an eventual response near the surface in terms of streamer development. Lake and sea effect often develops rapidly around mid-day and peaks in intensity in the late afternoon and evening hours, especially on a day when cold air is arriving during the morning hours.

The critical problem for snow in southeast Ireland is wind direction, but the stronger the sea effect, the more it will align with 850 mb winds which are definitely going to swing around towards NNE and even NE.

In the longer term, there are some stunning winter synoptics on the ECM, more cold than snowy in the longer term, but not without snowfall opportunities at least for the southeast quadrant.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Well they need a NE which is progged for later.
The air at 850 will be colder too so there should be more of them by then.
I'll believe it when I see it!

Just to add that when those 850's go down,I need to see the m2 dp drop below zero to eliminate marginality.

jeeze all these things are a big ask to come together :rolleyes:

Regarding the debate of met vs boards.The only difference is in my opinion that Wc mentioned amounts and the met didn't.
The latter is always the safe option.
With this lengthening cold spell ...of course theres not going to be any widespread snow by the end of it especially not in the East with an East wind.
Lol that couldn't bring snow!

200motels

Not a snow flake fell during the night, we are not going to see any snow down here, plenty of frost. Anywhere else that didn't see snow.

novarock

I can see clouds to the east from clondalkin that I hope are threatening snow...

irish1967

Steadily approaching white out conditions here now. Traffic slowed to a crawl - what little traffic there is. have never seen the road so quiet.

Deep Easterly

200motels wrote: »

. Anywhere else that didn't see snow.

Galway.

DOCARCH

Look at the way all that ppn has developed over the Irish Sea in the last couple of hours - what a waste (unless your in Wales)! Think I'll go and hijak a ferry! Just goes to show what a bit of warmth in the sea can do.

C'mon the NE wind!

novarock

irish1967 wrote: »

Steadily approaching white out conditions here now. Traffic slowed to a crawl - what little traffic there is. have never seen the road so quiet.

so jealous...

ffarrell

I wish some of you would stop moaning. I live here in West Dublin, the snow is thick on the ground, lots of ice, a whiteout and fresh snowfall albeit 1.5 cm. This has been the way since New Year's Eve.

Johnny1999

200motels wrote: »

Not a snow flake fell during the night, we are not going to see any snow down here, plenty of frost. Anywhere else that didn't see snow.

Very little snow in Kilkenny, just an extremely light dusting.

Mothman

Deleted User wrote: »

Just to add that when those 850's go down,I need to see the m2 dp drop below zero to eliminate marginality.

jeeze all these things are a big ask to come together :rolleyes:

Regarding the debate of met vs boards.The only difference is in my opinion that Wc mentioned amounts and the met didn't.
The latter is always the safe option.
With this lengthening cold spell ...of course theres not going to be any widespread snow by the end of it especially not in the East with an East wind.
Lol that couldn't bring snow!

I need a lower M2 Dp for my location. So if Air at M2 is +4C, I get interested when Dp is -2C

Su Campu

Woke up here this morning to the lightest of light dustings.

Last night we were looking at two small systems near Scotland, one of which could possibly give a polar low. What looks to have happened is the small cirulation to the west interfered with the other system, yielding nothing much but a n area of enhanced convection, which is affecting Scotland at the moment, but which will most likely only affect northwestern Ireland later today. Further east is in the snow shadow from this system.

There is a very visible cluster of Cu congestus and Cbs visible over the Irish Sea and on the radar as a shallow area of low pressure forms around the Liverpool area, with reports of moderate snow at Liverpool and Manchester airports this morning. As MTC says, we'll have to wait until later this afternoon for the 700hPa flow to veer northeasterly for these to affect eastern and southeastern parts. From sounding data for Belfast and Valley these cloudtops are probably at about 23,000ft and below -40C, so some good chance of high precipitation rates, especially later as these cloudtops rise even higher with further cold advection at all levels. This morning's Dublin TAF times light snow showers from 8pm tonight.

TAF EIDW 050500Z 0506/0606 34014KT 9999 FEW020 SCT030 BECMG 0518/0520 01014KT TEMPO 0520/0606 02016G27KT 3000 -SHSN BKN005=

Here's the 12Z Low Level Aviation chart for today, showing the possibility of heavy snow showers and thundersnow in western regions (Area

francie BradyII

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My instincts tell me that heavy snow will break out rather rapidly between noon and 3 p.m. across Dublin and Wicklow, let's see if that's right or wrong, but the speed with which the colder air is advecting at the critical levels above the surface will be met with an eventual response near the surface in terms of streamer development. Lake and sea effect often develops rapidly around mid-day and peaks in intensity in the late afternoon and evening hours, especially on a day when cold air is arriving during the morning hours.

Thats it i am staying home. it's too risky to drive from meath into dublin and then try get home later tonight. who else thinks i should stay at home?

candy19

irish1967 wrote: »

Steadily approaching white out conditions here now. Traffic slowed to a crawl - what little traffic there is. have never seen the road so quiet.

Just wondering do you have any more pics of my beloved Donegal??;)

Tactical

Wonder how Grace7 is getting on? Did she experience any more snow fall and has she enough supplies for another few days?

Snowaddict

Morning everyone

Quite interesting that ECMWF 00Z is still holding firm with regard to the risk of snowfall again later today. Again, if these developments do occur then these areas will stand to see a couple of CM at least. UKMO 00Z is also very similar in this regard with the risk of snowfall into Eastern & Southeastern areas later in the day & into tomorrow.

ECMWF 00Z

Midnight Tonight:



06 Hours Tomorrow



12 Hours Tomorrow



UKMO 00Z - Precipitation Distribution:



Summary

Obviously, these could be incorrect but again they are most definitely suggesting the potential for snowfall in Eastern & Southeastern areas in the coming 24 hours. In addition, there is solid conifdence in the persistence of bitterly cold conditions over the coming 5 Days, with winds into the East/Northeast towards Friday and the weekend. 850mb temperatures will be as low as -11 towards Saturday in particular, with ECMWF & UKMO Fax Charts supporting the risk of snow showers developing over the Irish Sea & pushing into Eastern areas - showers should be light in nature by this time.

As MT Cranium has said, the European models in particular - UKMO/ECMWF & GEM (Canadian) to quite an extent, show no let up in these conditions into the medium term. Indeed, ECMWF 00Z is exceptionally wintry throughout with the continuing threat of severe frosts & very low temperatures both day and night. Later in the period could see a renewed risk of snowfall - however that's too far out right now to be considering.

There does however, seem to be a strong signal for a continuation of blocking to the variable north - the longevity of which has not been seen in many years.

SA

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

There is a very visible cluster of Cu congestus and Cbs visible over the Irish Sea and on the radar as a shallow area of low pressure forms around the Liverpool area, with reports of moderate snow at Liverpool and Manchester airports this morning. As MTC says, we'll have to wait until later this afternoon for the 700hPa flow to veer northeasterly for these to affect eastern and southeastern parts. From sounding data for Belfast and Valley these cloudtops are probably at about 23,000ft and below -40C, so some good chance of high precipitation rates, especially later as these cloudtops rise even higher with further cold advection at all levels.

That makes sense,I can see anvils,there could be thunder in them!

This morning's Dublin TAF times light snow showers from 8pm tonight

Will they be changing that later like they did last night?.

DOCARCH

francie BradyII wrote: »

Thats it i am staying home. it's too risky to drive from meath into dublin and then try get home later tonight. who else thinks i should stay at home?

I doubt you boss will agree!

mad DIY

Tis a great bl00dy time for aaroadwatch site to go AWOL :rolleyes::mad:

Can anyone tell me did it snow in the midlands last night and what the road conditions are like round Laois, also N11 Wicklow and Wexford, and N3 in Meath. Trying to plan my day. Thanks.

irish1967

candy19 wrote: »

Just wondering do you have any more pics of my beloved Donegal??;)

I'll take a few for ya in a while once this blizzard stops. Work cancelled for today. Roads are lethal. Roads desserted.
Killybegs, Bruckless, Dunkineely, Mountcharles, Donegal Town all recent snow.Roads still completely white.. tracks from earlier covered up already. Travel not advised on any roads including NPR's.

Wibbler

ffarrell wrote: »

I wish some of you would stop moaning. I live here in West Dublin, the snow is thick on the ground, lots of ice, a whiteout and fresh snowfall albeit 1.5 cm. This has been the way since New Year's Eve.

Okay, that explains why you're not moaning. It's a different story elsewhere. Allow us to moan a little

candy19

irish1967 wrote: »

I'll take a few for ya in a while once this blizzard stops. Work cancelled for today. Roads are lethal. Roads desserted.
Killybegs, Bruckless, Dunkineely, Mountcharles, Donegal Town all recent snow.Roads still completely white.. tracks from earlier covered up already. Travel not advised on any roads including NPR's.

Ah thanks alot!;)

Are you telling me that I may not get home tonight??

This grit better hurry up and get from cork fast!! Why couldn't they have shipped some into Killybegs!

tony1212

ok guys, i tought that limerick were supposed to get some sort of snowfall, all we got was a dusting, is there any chances of snow from today on for limerick

200motels

Originally Posted by irish1967
Steadily approaching white out conditions here now. Traffic slowed to a crawl - what little traffic there is. have never seen the road so quiet.

novarock wrote: »

so jealous...

And me.

irish1967

Still in white out here.. suns gone !! Everyone.. come on up.. I have the kettle on !!

paulhac

Deleted User wrote: »

That makes sense,I can see anvils,there could be thunder in them! Will they be changing that later like they did last night?.

Estofex have the Irish Sea down for possible Ts today.

Su Campu

Deleted User wrote: »

That makes sense,I can see anvils,there could be thunder in them! Will they be changing that later like they did last night?.

TAFs are issued for 24hr periods at 05Z, 11Z, 17Z, and 23Z. They have been pretty consistent for most airports over the last couple of days, with just minor changes between forecasts. It remeains to be seen what they'll issue in at 11am, but I'll keep you posted.

irish1967

Now experiencing heaviest snow since this all began on 18th December. YESSSSSSSSSSSS !! Massive flakes.. can only see a few yards. Dam its gorgeous !