Cold Spell Discussion: Widespread Snow Expected Overnight/Tuesday

JanuarySnowstor

18z very much upgrades the shorterm ppn for Ireland as it tracks tuesday's low further west again.
It could mean a whiteout for the East and South late tues / early wed

eskimocat

It's raining here!!

owenc

Su Campu wrote: »

Great, Derry Eglington have stopped reporting METARs :mad:

ugh aye that stupid station always goes off at night and then comes on through the day i wonder why it does this nearly every single night!!!!! stupid westerly winds have come here and risen the temperature to 1c from close to 0c hopefully this is preparing for the front coming! is it?:D

snow ghost

snaps wrote: »

Ive started to have this feeling we are all about to be let down. Look Christmas day here it was -4c and it pelted it down with rain, no conditions look perfect, but im still thinking it will be just rain tonight.

Keep the faith snaps - we got a great covering here (right next to the sea) on Christmas Day.

445279.ie

101.JPG

Little picture of my car after about half an hour of snow

Villain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z very much upgrades the shorterm ppn for Ireland as it tracks tuesday's low further west again.
It could mean a whiteout for the East and South late tues / early wed

Sadly the Pub Run has been followed by a backtrack in the morning almost every morning

WolfeIRE

here is the latest gfs run for that low system tomorrow

Su Campu

The UKMO 18Z FAX doesn't show any circulation around the Faroe Islands. In any case that wasn't where a polar low might develop. But it will be interesting to see if it does deepen, as it's moving right under the left entrance region of that Icelandic jetstreak.....it might be something the models have missed and could pop up on the 00Z analysis chart.

Fear Sneachta

I personally dont think we're in for a serious snow event in the next 24 hours, hopefully I am wrong but I have a sneaking suspision the models might be slightly overcooking things! I have no doubt some places will see snow but others probably wont. I think that this needs to be said, there are alot of guests browsing on here Tonight who may be expecting the whole country to be covered in 10cm of snow.

Su Campu

owenc wrote: »

ugh aye that stupid station always goes off at night and then comes on through the day i wonder why it does this nearly every single night!!!!! stupid westerly winds have come here and risen the temperature to 1c from close to 0c hopefully this is preparing for the front coming! is it?:D

The front is approaching, so you'll see temperatures drop after it, in about 6 hours

445279.ie

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Another picture from upstairs looking out at the park

Vain

Snowing in Tralee and its staying on the ground:D

Takeshi_Kovacs

Damn, radar is really borked tonight.. Shannon is off the air and Dublin is throwing bad return in a line towards Cork city

and snow is sticking here atm, falling very lazily though, i just wonder is temp going to keep rising, and we will end up with light drizzle soon.

Villain

Temp rising as warmer front passes over just hope it doesn't go too far

jd

what does symbol attached mean

Chicken Run

Vanhalla wrote: »

so its snowing in limerick county and city and north tipp, but not east clare. stupid bloody weird weather

I know :mad:
I feel strangely cheated (but ever hopeful)
Temp now 1.7C here and my head's throbbing... I'm trying not to keep getting up and looking out of the window

jenzz

Supercell wrote: »

That big "circulation" to the noth seems to be decumpling, rather than winding up, probably jsut going to be a standard trough feature by the time it reaches us here. Hope we get some nice showers though by this time tomorrow here.

Hola amigos - What we expecting in the dales tonight ?? v cold

nacho libre

Fear Sneachta wrote: »

I personally dont think we're in for a serious snow event in the next 24 hours, hopefully I am wrong but I have a sneaking suspision the models might be slightly overcooking things! I have no doubt some places will see snow but others probably wont. I think that this needs to be said, there are alot of guests browsing on here Tonight who may be expecting the whole country to be covered in 10cm of snow.

unless we got a strong polar low 10 cm of accumulations was never going to happen widely. it was stated that the north and north west would see the bulk of the lieing snow. it remains to be seen how much accumulates in these regions once the front passes.

dollydishmop

Vanhalla wrote: »

so its snowing in limerick county and city and north tipp, but not east clare. stupid bloody weird weather

Not snowing in this part of North Tipp

Last snow shower was around 5.30pm....am I due any more?

WolfeIRE

Fear Sneachta wrote: »

I have no doubt some places will see snow but others probably wont.:)

that won't enlighten them much either. We are trying tod etermine where it will snow at present.

As it stands. Higher ground (above 200m) in Ulster, Connaught, North Leinster, North and West Munster will see snow tonight. Precipitation will be relatively small in all but the midlands, southwest and parts of the northwest. The Midlands (low level) and Southwest (mostly high ground) look like they will see most precip and this could give a good covering by morning.

That front/low/mess approaching from the shetlands will most likely effect a line from North Antrim-North Mayo (this forecast is based on latest GFS although the later UKMO may dispute this and direct the system more inland)

The East and SE Coast will see showery activity bubble up from tomorrow afternoon. This will continue on and off until Thursday at least. The showers will penetrate inland to the likes of Kilkenny, Clonmel and Kildare. Waterford is also going to see some showers from wednesday pm onwards to late Thursday at least.

Pangea

Just got a lot of the white stuff here so i did, the aul colgate on the teeth that is

Still pouring rain here, is this gona turn to snow ????

Su Campu

jd wrote: »

what does symbol attached mean

It's a convergence line, formed by cold airmass outflow off both England and France, meeting in the middle and causing convection.

Chicken Run

owenc wrote: »

ugh aye that stupid station always goes off at night and then comes on through the day i wonder why it does this nearly every single night!!!!!

last one out turning off all the switches ??

WolfeIRE

jd wrote: »

what does symbol attached mean

IT MEANS THE FRENCH ARE BUILDING A MASSIVE BARBED WIRE FENCE TO KEEP THE BRITS FROM BUYING UP ALL THEIR CHEAP BOOZE AND FAGS

I think it might mean a stationary front but not 100%

EDIT Su Campu just proved it am 100% wrong Was closer woth the barbed wire fence

Su Campu

And now the Faroe Islands have stopped reporting too!!!

Dublin calling Torshavn....come in Torshavn....

445279.ie

Ah it's stopped snowing here now

M.T. Cranium

The 18z GFS (with its reliability issues) does upgrade the snowfall potential for Tuesday and Wednesday in Ireland, mostly because it tightens the gradient and pushes the critical 516 dm contour into central and even western Ireland. This would imply that once the trough passes tonight (and it seems to be slowly gaining strength) the wind direction will more readily come around to about 030-040 deg (NE) and advect the very cold air already present in north/central England out over the Irish Sea and into eastern Ireland.

Fingers crossed that this will all come to pass because it could mean substantial snow streamer development both days and potential for local snowfalls in excess of 10 cms. Note, this obviously won't be country-wide, but restricted to the "snow belt" in this case, counties that border on the Irish Sea and counties that border on them south of Westmeath.

Further west I'm expecting some scattered snow showers to develop and hit or miss 1-3 cm falls, probably nowhere is exempt from that potential in this strong an outbreak.

Meanwhile, what it means over in the UK, I think, is a long-duration light snowfall event in south central counties, some heavier amounts in eastern counties, and the same sort of hit or miss results in Wales and western parts of England.

Note that the route taken by the coldest surface air will be something like Newcastle to Blackpool to Dublin, north to Edinburgh to Belfast to Galway; if you sketch out that corridor, that's where the lowest dewpoints are likely to advect west (and these could be -5 or lower).

It all looks very promising ... now for the delivery part. :cool:

Mental Mickey

Su Campu wrote: »

And now the Faroe Islands have stopped reporting too!!!

Dublin calling Torshavn....come in Torshavn....

Cinq points!!!!

Queen-Mise

Jesus we are all bored here waiting for snow. I want snow - to build a snow man. And then I want the cold to fcuk off.

Am fed up of cold now....

Mental Mickey

Queen-Mise wrote: »

Jesus we are all bored here waiting for snow. I want snow - to build a snow man. And then I want the cold to fcuk off.

Am fed up of cold now....