Model Outlook Thread: January 2010

Deep Easterly

Just to keep the aul model watching for medium term forecasts separate from the main short term discussion threads and to prevent a clogging up

Haven't looked at the GFS but UKMO and ECM runs this morning keeping themselves very cold this morning. Indeed, ECM out the 240 shows little hope of any warmer weather even coming close to our shores:

216hr chart:


Bitter, bitter cold.

force eleven

ECM runs are very very good if you like cold weather. High pressure to the north,low pressure to the south and a direct stream of bitter cold easterly winds for most of the next 10 days over these islands. There will certainly be snow, but your guess is as good as mine as to how much and where it will fall.

Snow will be one of those nowcast events I think, even T+24 will be too far ahead to predict accurately on that front.

Deep Easterly

Certainly looks as if the cool snap will continue up to next weekend at least. ECM 12z has a raw easterly breeze over the country this weekend c/o a pressure build over southern Scandinavia:


Cloud amounts will vary with always the chance of light snow flurries in the east, but further west, very dry which I am sure will be welcomed by the many.

Scubadevils

Encouraging to see no end to the cold. The thing is with this weather, I do enjoy watching the odd flurry of snow and hoping a shower will land in my area but the real prize is obviously sustained snow fall, drifts etc... thats what I want out of these very rare scenarios.

I have read many a time here, on TWO and NW that the real key is to have decent cold locked in for a reasonable period and then await the big snow event, much like what England are now experiencing - which was only really picked up over the last few days from what I gather. Nothing to say something 'big' won't appear on the horizon for us soon! We have the cold...

nacho libre

Felixdhc wrote: »

Encouraging to see no end to the cold. The thing is with this weather, I do enjoy watching the odd flurry of snow and hoping a shower will land in my area but the real prize is obviously sustained snow fall, drifts etc... thats what I want out of these very rare scenarios.

I have read many a time here, on TWO and NW that the real key is to have decent cold locked in for a reasonable period and then await the big snow event, much like what England are now experiencing - which was only really picked up over the last few days from what I gather. Nothing to say something 'big' won't appear on the horizon for us soon! We have the cold...

i certainly hope so too.
as you say the longer it goes on the more likely there is to be another frontal situation at some stage. if there is it would be brilliant if the conditions finally were the right side of marginal resulting in widespread snowfall, due to an atlantic system stalling over us and the cold air finally winning out. the dream scenario would be the atlantic trying time and time again to win out but being defeated, resulting in a dumping of snow for many, as it was in those fabled winters of '63 and '47. obviously that's highly unlikely to happen though:(

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

Rekop dog

Felixdhc wrote: »

Encouraging to see no end to the cold. The thing is with this weather, I do enjoy watching the odd flurry of snow and hoping a shower will land in my area but the real prize is obviously sustained snow fall, drifts etc... thats what I want out of these very rare scenarios.

I have read many a time here, on TWO and NW that the real key is to have decent cold locked in To a reasonable period and then await the big snow event, much like what England are now experiencing - which was only really picked up over the last few days from what I gather. Nothing to say something 'big' won't appear on the horizon for us soon! We have the cold...

.

Scubadevils

Rekop dog wrote: »

.

Yes thanks for that invaluable input, much clearer picture now as to what is happening...

Scubadevils

nacho libre wrote: »

i certainly hope so too.
as you say the longer it goes on the more likely there is to be another frontal situation at some stage. if there is it would be brilliant if the conditions finally were the right side of marginal resulting in widespread snowfall, due to an atlantic system stalling over us and the cold air finally winning out. the dream scenario would be the atlantic trying time and time again to win out but being defeated, resulting in a dumping of snow for many, as it was in those fabled winters of '63 and '47. obviously that's highly unlikely to happen though:(

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

Yes that in itself makes it interesting. Still want my heavy snow though!!!

WolfeIRE

Guys,

I posted this in wrong blooming section.

Latest model readings for western seaboard system on Thursday

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63817294&postcount=1260

Deep Easterly

UKMO 00z run keeps the cool snap going with easterly winds setting in over the coming weekend. At 144hrs (early next week), this model continues to suggest a possible low pressure attack from the SW.:



If and how this effect us remains to be seen, but with milder air trying to sneak in from the SW it could be interesting...

Awaiting the 00z ECM run for confirmation/disproval of this prognosis.

Deep Easterly

ECM 00z run complete and is basically in line with UKMO about pressure lowering from the south next week.

At 168hrs:


A little bit slacker than the UKMO projection but the trend is the same. At this early stage, there is increasing chance of frontal activity near the south coast during mid week next week. Between now and the uncertain then, always the risk of a shower or 10 near the south and east coasts at times.

Mothman

nacho libre wrote: »

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

This is what some of us said about the the summer of 2007...;)

Snowaddict

Overnight Guidance continues to show a continuation of Bitterly cold conditions persisting for another 5 Days. Beyond Day 6, there are some tentative signs of a breakdown in the pattern at the moment but that's very uncertain at this stage.

ECMWF 00Z

Overnight, ECMWF has held firm regarding the transition to an Easterly flow over the coming days. Despite pressure rising, with a deep cold being advected Westward over the Irish Sea, it is modelling quite a bit of snowfall potential into Eastern areas in an increasingly due Easterly flow. Again, 850mb temperatures are being modelled as -10 to -11 through Saturday, persisting at values of -8 to -9 even into next Monday.

Thursday

Tomorrow, Thursday will see a slacker Northerly airflow covering the country, with a blocking High situated in the Northern Mid Atlantic. During the day, a shallow feature will progress southwards, near to Atlantic coastal districts. There is the risk of sleet and snowfall from this, however ECMWF continues to not model much inland penetration of shower activity - although this is definitely something to watch closely.

It will remain extremely cold, with 850mb temperatures of -8 across the country:



Friday

Friday will again remain bitterly cold, with an increasing Easterly flow as the day goes on, with pressure building firmly over Scandinavia. The flow may be slightly Northeasterly at first, but will continue to back Easterly as it develops. There will be a significant wind chill factor, especially later in the day. 850mb temperatures will begin to decrease even further, approaching value of -9 later in the day. A severe and penetrating frost away from exposed Eastern areas:



Saturday

At the moment, ECMWF 00Z is holding firm on a very potent firm on a very potent Easterly flow during Saturday, with 850mb temperautres approaching -11. It would feel exceptionally cold in this rather strong Easterly airflow, with an increasing risk of snow showers in Eastern and Southeastern areas later in the day:



Sunday

The latest indications suggest that this Easterly flow will continue into Sunday, with an increasing risk of snow showers developing in Eastern areas.





Summary

Remaining very to bitterly cold at times over the coming 5 Days. A further risk of snowfall, potentially in Western areas later tomorrow. This risk then transfers to Eastern and Southeastern areas, as the airflow turns increasingly into the East. Saturday may well see the coldest 850mb temperatures of the period so far, approaching -10 to -11, with an increasing risk of associated snow flurries & snow showers. Any breakdown being modelled is currently beyond Day 5.

SA

nacho libre

Mothman wrote: »

This is what some of us said about the the summer of 2007...;)

well, it's always more likely to happen with wet weather. i certainly would love it if the winters to come had the same pattern as we have now- albeit with more widespread snowfall!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.gif
NAO is negative as far as the models predict!!

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

whatever happens we are unlikely to see a winter set up like this being repeated for many years to come.

U big scrooge!
Who knows what the future holds for us.

WolfeIRE

Charts for tomorrow's atlantic system

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Charts for tomorrow's atlantic system

looks good for places 40 -50 miles inland from the west coast- that's if the precipitation makes it that far. also hopefully with the mixing of different air it will lead to heavier precipitation in the form of snow for some!

WolfeIRE

12oz UKMO brings that front closer to the west coast tomorrow. Maybe SA would be better able to explain what that it is likely to result in

nacho libre

sa will know more, but i think with the lp coming closer the greater the chance of maritime air spoiling things at lower levels- even further inland. if this was in February there would be a greater chance of conditions being the right side of marginal due to colder sea temperatures. definitely high ground, should see snow tomorrow, and hopefully places further inland at lower levels will, but those at lower levels on the west coast, like i'mbacklater, will need to go up croagh patrick if he wants to see snow.

nacho libre

and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, i hope to god before this cold ends one of these situations goes right for all of us who want to see fairly widespread heavy snowfall

WolfeIRE

anyone know which Lough Derg Met Eireann mentions on its inland lakes section. Is it Donegal or the Clare one? All indicating risk of sleet or snow tomorrow.

Forecast For Lough Derg until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Dry. Mostly sunny. Visibility : Good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold - and probably cloudier, with the risk of some sleet or snow.

Forecast For Lough Ree until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Dry. Mostly sunny. Visibility : Good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold - and probably cloudier, with the risk of some sleet or snow.

Forecast For Lough Corrib and Lough Mask until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Sunny spells. Slight chance of a passing wintry shower. Visibility : Mostly good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold and cloudier, probably with some rain, sleet or snow at times.

Forecast For Lough Key and Lough Allen until nightfall today Wind : North force 3 to 5. Weather : Dry. Mostly sunny. Visibility : Good. Winds Overnight : Light north to northwest. Outlook for tomorrow : Mostly light northwest or variable winds. Cold - and probably cloudier, with the risk of some sleet or snow.

WolfeIRE

upgrade for tomorrow

3.30pm gfs run
MIDNIGHT




thursday 6am



thursday MIDDAY




THURSDAY 6PM

Robxxx7

looks like a strong chance of snow through the Midlands and a minor chance of either sleet/snow here on the coast in Kerry

maquiladora

12Z GFS looks good for fairly widespread snow at times this weekend.

WolfeIRE

They are incredible Maq , if they come true. Widespread snow on Sunday in particular.

maquiladora

How is 12Z UKMO looking? Meteociel is a nightmare to navigate, keeps timing out.

WolfeIRE

For the first time since Saturday the UKMO is predicting precip inland tomorrow


Upper temps are marginal though for snow near the coast.

nacho libre

great stuff!

please keep those kind of charts coming lads:)

come on the snow!!:D:D

dloob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

They are incredible Maq , if they come true. Widespread snow on Sunday in particular.

Sky News weather at lunch time had widespread snow for sunday.

Scubadevils

Do we not need -8 uppers for snow? Certainly looks slightly milder for a couple of days.