Model Outlook Thread: January 2010

Scubadevils

Saturday 19:00?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=54&code=0&mode=2

Scubadevils

Sunday 7am??? I didn't see any other charts this am but is this not an upgrade for the weekend?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=2

That looks like a 2nd hammering for Wicklow/Wexford!

maquiladora

Felixdhc wrote: »

Saturday 19:00?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=54&code=0&mode=2

Yeah, 12Z brings in the snow showers to the southeast and east from Saturday evening and is actually a bit of an upgrade compared to the 06Z with showers spreading to the midlands and south during the night.

Scubadevils

Feckin Meteociel must be getting hammered, freezing a lot, pardon the pun...

maquiladora

Yeah 12Z is looking good for Sunday morning too, but then as the precip starts to increase the temps start to look a bit marginal for the east coast.

Scubadevils

1pm Sunday with precip over a lot of the country, albeit light... this has no look of 82 about it! I'll accept it though, with open arms.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=2

Scubadevils

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah 12Z is looking good for Sunday morning too, but then as the precip starts to increase the temps start to look a bit marginal for the east coast.

Is that not -8 or even -12 850 over the country at +66?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=1

maquiladora

Some fairly heavy precip at times over the south on Sunday, question is would it be rain or snow?

It continues all day Sunday and Monday morning there is precip almost everywhere (south and east getting the most), but once again, would it be rain or snow? :pac:

maquiladora

Felixdhc wrote: »

Is that not -8 or even -12 850 over the country at +66?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=1

Surface conditions dont look as favourable though.

Scubadevils

maquiladora wrote: »

Surface conditions dont look as favourable though.

Oh ok, I'll remain optimistic... a direct feed from the east over the UK snowfields

maquiladora

12Z GFS has unbroken, constant precipitation over the east from Saturday evening all the way till Tuesday morning. At times its light, yes, but if that actually came off and all fell as snow.......

Edit : The run is out to Wednesday now and there is no let up in precipitation (though I think it would be falling as rain/sleet from Tuesday on these charts).

Not even going to comment on it beyond that cause it'll probably be totally changed on the 18Z anyway!

Redsunset

Never thought i'd be saying this but if that run comes off we are in serious bother with continuous snow/sleet days.

i think it will be snow away from coasts.
However might not happen at all.

im sure Met Eireann see the threat too but as always will wait till last minute to give all out weather alerts if it comes to pass.
An interesting 48 hrs lies in store.

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

Never thought i'd be saying this but if that run comes off we are in serious bother with continuous snow/sleet days.

i think it will be snow away from coasts.
However might not happen at all.

im sure Met Eireann see the threat too but as always will wait till last minute to give all out weather alerts if it comes to pass.
An interesting 48 hrs lies in store.

if it came off we would see who was really hardcore;)

MilanPan!c

redsunset wrote: »

Never thought i'd be saying this but if that run comes off we are in serious bother with continuous snow/sleet days.

i think it will be snow away from coasts.
However might not happen at all.

im sure Met Eireann see the threat too but as always will wait till last minute to give all out weather alerts if it comes to pass.
An interesting 48 hrs lies in store.

Sorry, I can't read these maps...

are you saying that Dublin might get DAYS of snow?

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

Never thought i'd be saying this but if that run comes off we are in serious bother with continuous snow/sleet days.

i think it will be snow away from coasts.
However might not happen at all.

im sure Met Eireann see the threat too but as always will wait till last minute to give all out weather alerts if it comes to pass.
An interesting 48 hrs lies in store.

When you consider the disruption caused yesterday by just a few hours of snow showers...and then consider that if this run came off exactly as shown, and all fell as snow until Tuesday morning (about 60 hours of constant snowfall)...well...actually, I can't imagine it....

I'm sure there will be a big downgrade though, has to be.

munsterlegend

redsunset wrote: »

Never thought i'd be saying this but if that run comes off we are in serious bother with continuous snow/sleet days.

i think it will be snow away from coasts.
However might not happen at all.

im sure Met Eireann see the threat too but as always will wait till last minute to give all out weather alerts if it comes to pass.
An interesting 48 hrs lies in store.

well the met office update for the uk still has it as a threat as of today for the weekend:

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Bright for many on Saturday with snow spreading to southern parts of the UK from Sunday. Remaining mostly dry with bright spells further north. Bitterly cold with strong easterly winds.
Updated: 1550 on Thu 7 Jan 2010

JanuarySnowstor

Well the models are firming up now on a breakdown by next tuesday, for a while anyway
Should be a snowfest on sunday though:D

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well the models are firming up now on a breakdown by next tuesday, for a while anyway
Should be a snowfest on sunday though:D

you used always be an optimist! will it really break on tuesday?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

you used always be an optimist! will it really break on tuesday?

GFS 12Z is showing a breakdown Tuesday, but thats still a good bit off in fairness.

3 days snowfest before that though.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS 12Z is showing a breakdown Tuesday, but thats still a good bit off in fairness.

3 days snowfest before that though.

gfs i read is the most unreliable of all the models from what i have read. is that correct?

Wibbler

Look at the snow cover over the UK today!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/2010007-0107/GreatBritain.A2010007.1150.1km.jpg

Warning: Big Image.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

gfs i read is the most unreliable of all the models from what i have read. is that correct?

It handles some things better than others, but I certainly wouldnt call it the worst, in fact if I remember correctly it was best at forecasting the very start of this cold spell way back when the other models were really struggling.

But its better to have consensus between 2 or 3 models rather than just looking at one.

So the UKMO 12Z and ECM later should be really interesting to see if they show something similar.

nacho libre

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well the models are firming up now on a breakdown by next tuesday, for a while anyway

please inform Evelyn

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

you used always be an optimist! will it really break on tuesday?

I'm a realist, the ukmo has backed the gfs to say yes.
If you want optimism the south should see plenty snow this Sunday
Hopefully ecm will be better long term

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm a realist, the ukmo has backed the gfs to say yes.
If you want optimism the south should see plenty snow this Sunday
Hopefully ecm will be better long term

yeah i know. the ukmo believes it will break as well on tuesday? i didn't know that.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm a realist, the ukmo has backed the gfs to say yes.
If you want optimism the south should see plenty snow this Sunday
Hopefully ecm will be better long term

Where are you seeing the 12Z UKMO? Meteociel is timing out.

nacho libre

Evelyn Cusack was on the radio and said there was no sign of any real change for the next 10 days. The only change would be a slight rise in temperature. so it'll be interesting to see what the ecmf says. as they tend to be more reliable overall- indeed the gfs tends to back the ecmf evolution in the end.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack was on the radio and said there was no sign of any real change for the next 10 days. The only change would be a slight rise in temperature. so it'll be interesting to see what the ecmf says. as they tend to be more reliable overall- indeed the gfs tends to back the ecmf evolution in the end.

did she mention sky news predicted doomsday on sunday?

Scubadevils

I like to read what John Holmes over on NW has to say, seems to have the experience to back up his thoughts obviously!

What the Fax charts show is the upper air starting to warm out, hence the 'upper' warm font shown on 1 or 2 of them, then the main frontal zone is show on the T+120 as pretty well along the south coast.Nick F makes similar comment in his blog and is correct.
This has been, already, the longest and coldest spell over much of the country for perhaps 20+ years.
Once really cold air gets settled, believe me, its unlikely that the first Atlantic push will bring milder, let alone, 'blow torch' air rushing over the UK.
It may well make it into some SW'ern coastal areas, might, but as to the end of the cold spell by Wednesday-no chance.
What happens beyond it is very much up in the air in my view.
The forecast for the start into the middle of next week is a forecasters, just about, worst nightmare.
Very cold surface air, only slowly being modified with moist warm air over the top. How far, will any genuinely mild air get at the surface, will it snow, will it be freezing rain, how much, for how long, and will the cold push the mild back again.
Like I say a forecasters nightmare after the relatively easy bit of the past 4-5 days!

oh and for those 'looks like the end of the cold spell' comments based on comparing 06-12z or any other 2 consecutive runs - I no longer make comment about those of you that do that.
tears and toys out of prams so many many times over the past years as well!
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59991-general-model-output-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1717991

opr

The more qualified people here and the Irish MET seem to be saying very little about Sunday while other areas are playing it up as snowmageddon! Why ?

Opr