Model Outlook Thread: January 2010

maquiladora

0Z GFS has significantly increased the precipitation amounts for Sunday and Monday.

ninebeanrows

Looks like the end could be night by Friday next with the high slipping well to the east and us in SSE.

G-Money

Is there any chance there's going to be a thaw/rise in temperatures anytime soon?

ME says its going to stay like this for the foreseeable future which sounds very long term

ninebeanrows

grandmaster wrote: »

Is there any chance there's going to be a thaw/rise in temperatures anytime soon?

ME says its going to stay like this for the foreseeable future which sounds very long term

Todays sees a potential breakdown occurring next Friday, but this could change.

G-Money

Weathercheck wrote: »

Todays sees a potential breakdown occurring next Friday, but this could change.

Thanks.

I thought that's what your post suggested but I don't really understand all this weather lingo

maquiladora

06Z GFS coming out...


Saturday morning, snow for the east and southeast, moving inland :

Pangea

You guys rely too much on charts ,remember the charts said st. stephens day was meant to be our thaw with mild weather right up to the day, even met eireann said it,
Im gona rely on Michael gallagher, another 2 weeks he said.

maquiladora

06Z GFS has subzero temps still there next Friday morning with the snow still falling since the previous Saturday in parts...

:eek:

Snowaddict

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS has subzero temps still there next Friday morning with the snow still falling since the previous Saturday in parts...

:eek:

Indeed Maq, it's extremely uncertain as to what will happen next week.

Throughout the past 40+ years, there have been a few occasions on which forecasters, namely the UKMO, have expected the Atlantic to break back in, only for it to be delfected away again. Many UK forum members will often speak of BBC forecasts predicting rainfall only to have snowfall with a front sinking back south again. GFS 06Z is the absolute best evolution that we could hope for. GEM 00Z was excellent. UKMO fine out to T+120, ECMWF certainly not fantastic longer term & I would have conifdence in ECMWF. So to sum it up, uncertainty for sure going into the middle part of next week.

Watch the T+144 to T+168 timeframe on all guidance at the moment. There are subtle hints of more WAA (Warm Air Advection) and advection of positive Heights to Northern Latitudes.

SA

maquiladora

nacho libre

it still looks cool out to the furthest reaches of fi. obviously the very cold air is going to give way to less cold and somewhat milder air but it doesn't look like we'll get into double figures anytime soon. so there maybe hope that we might get a renewed incursion of cold air from the east at some point but if there is a complete breakdown then i feel that's it. i feel Gerard Fleming had a hunch change was coming but wanted to be doubly sure before informing gormley. i bet by monday we'll see them(met eireann) mentioning a gradual change is on the way.

Scubadevils

maquiladora wrote: »

Has the precip pushed further north on this run giving even more widespread falls?

pistolpetes11

I may as its been put before "get laughed of the stage" for this

Does the dam values in the following 3 charts not bode really well for snowy conditions over the next 3 days (Pressure wise that is)

I have only really got into reading the charts over the last few months so I may be completely wrong

Pangea

Everyone but boards seems to think that the cold weather is showing no signs of let up, especially not tuesday as some people on here as said.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2010 to Friday 22 Jan 2010:

Cold conditions will persist on Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers across northeast England and eastern Scotland, whilst a band of more persistent snow is possible across some western and southwestern areas. It will also be windy for many, accentuating the cold. Little change is expected into next weekend (16/17 Jan) with sleet or snow showers still likely across some northern and eastern districts, whilst longer spells of sleet or snow may occur across southern districts, this perhaps turning to rain in the extreme southwest later. Into the following week the indication is that many eastern parts of the country will remain cold, although with a lot of dry weather. Western areas could well be more unsettled, eventually turning less cold, with some rain, sleet and snow.

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I may as its been put before "get laughed of the stage" for this

Does the dam values in the following 3 charts not bode really well for snowy conditions over the next 3 days (Pressure wise that is)

I have only really got into reading the charts over the last few months so I may be completely wrong

i maybe wrong but i think we need lower dam thickness than the continent for snow to fall due to warmer sea temperatures here. however given the cold air is deeply entrenched and it's windy places well inland should see snow out of this. the only danger is if the high pressure is stronger than anticipitated and kills off or weakens the precipitation

pistolpetes11

I was reading up on dam thickness value on the UK met office site and found the following info that made me think that they mite be good .

Mind you it does set the value at 528 for the UK which mite not be applicable to Ireland

arctictree

Pangea wrote: »

Everyone but boards seems to think that the cold weather is showing no signs of let up, especially not tuesday as some people on here as said.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2010 to Friday 22 Jan 2010:

Cold conditions will persist on Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers across northeast England and eastern Scotland, whilst a band of more persistent snow is possible across some western and southwestern areas. It will also be windy for many, accentuating the cold. Little change is expected into next weekend (16/17 Jan) with sleet or snow showers still likely across some northern and eastern districts, whilst longer spells of sleet or snow may occur across southern districts, this perhaps turning to rain in the extreme southwest later. Into the following week the indication is that many eastern parts of the country will remain cold, although with a lot of dry weather. Western areas could well be more unsettled, eventually turning less cold, with some rain, sleet and snow.

Pangea - that is report about the UK. The breakdown is looking like a very much western affair and might not affect the UK as much. Even that report above mentions rain for western areas.

nacho libre

arctictree wrote: »

Pangea - that is report about the UK. The breakdown is looking like a very much western affair and might not affect the UK as much. Even that report above mentions rain for western areas.

yes, but with a complete breakdown it would lead to the Atlantic dismantling the pattern over us and the uk a few days after us. so i'm still not convinced we are heading for a total breakdown as long as England is predicted to remain cold for the forseeable future.

Squidvicious

nacho libre wrote: »

i maybe wrong but i think we need lower dam thickness than the continent for snow to fall due to warmer sea temperatures here. however given the cold air is deeply entrenched and it's windy places well inland should see snow out of this. the only danger is if the high pressure is stronger than anticipitated and kills off or weakens the precipitation

The Dam values look fine to me for the weekend , but they may get a little dicey for snow by Monday . Generally , you need lower Dam values to get snow on a moist Westerly , but snow will fall at relatively higher Dam values in more continental Easterlies . Either way , it will rarely snow above 528 Dam . We look to be ok until Monday at least - the DAM levels look to be well below danger level on Saturday and Sunday . As you said , the big danger is lack of precipitation .

Pangea

arctictree wrote: »

Pangea - that is report about the UK. The breakdown is looking like a very much western affair and might not affect the UK as much. Even that report above mentions rain for western areas.

Well we are not too far from the uk considering ,if they have cold we are not far behind , and plus its meant to cover northern ireland too.

Deep Easterly

ECM looking much milder this morning towards the end of its run:



Before that (if that was to occur) there is a slow, but significant warming trend towards next weekend with somewhat more "normal" Atlantic air streams taking over. This looks to be a very gradual process though so between now and then, should be some interesting weather at times....:)

jambofc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM looking much milder this morning towards the end of its run:

Before that (if that was to occur) there is a slow, but significant warming trend towards next weekend with somewhat more "normal" Atlantic air streams taking over. This looks to be a very gradual process though so between now and then, should be some interesting weather at times....:)

mr.t's forecast seem's to put it very marginal and then a thaw set's in,but give's the posibility of the cold weather returning again.....

Wibbler

jambofc wrote: »

mr.t's forecast seem's to put it very marginal and then a thaw set's in,but give's the posibility of the cold weather returning again.....

GFS is showing the same as it has been for a number of days. The end is nigh!

jambofc

Wibbler wrote: »

GFS is showing the same as it has been for a number of days. The end is nigh!

yep look's that way.i have stopped myself getting over excited on this one been let down to many time's in this extended cold spell,am still hopefull that after nearly a month of this it will leave us with a big snowfall to remember this incredibly cold spell,would be a shame for it to go without any real snow event,looking forward to the rest of today,hopefully the streamer's keep comeing.

p.s. sky and bbc now downgrading this also :mad:

zenno

I never seen clouds like this. they look like they are going to burst out with snow and this is in rivervalley swords co. dublin and not one flake is coming out of them. heavy snow clouds but not releasing anything.

zenno

very light snow in swords now at -1 degrees

Gonzo

I reckon that from now on even theres gonna be slight rises in temperatures, that last Thursday and yesterday were perhaps the coldest points of the cold spell especially at night-time. Dublin with its -4 on Thursday and yesterday got to 0C. Temps 2nite should be a bit milder in Leinster than they have been, then I think 2moro would be the last true day of the proper cold nationwide before things turn more marginal from Monday and especially Tuesday onwards. The end is definitely in sight but I dont think its really gonna get very mild for quite some time yet.

Pangea

Well whats the latest guys. Throw out some charts for the craic.

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

Well whats the latest guys. Throw out some charts for the craic.

Latest from the ECMWF still on the same gradual warming theme in the short term at least, however, the Baltic Ridge seems a little more reluctant to budge in this morning's run, which could well prevent any serious warm up over the next 10 days. It will be milder than of late (that would not be hard), but just how mild is the big question at the moment.

192hrs Chart:

No clear trend for a warmer than average spell yet, but no clear trend for a continuation of the cooler than average conditions beyond 5 days, so all to play for as they say.

Birdnuts

Looking at the latest models it really looks horrible over here from Tuesday onwards. Still cold enough for most away from the SW but probably not cold enough for snow away from mtns. To make matters worse there is going to be alot of preciptation around ie. flooding could become a serious issue again:(