Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Model Outlook Thread: January 2010
Options
Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
nacho libre wrote: »at this juncture no one can tell what will happen. by wednesday or thursday met eireann and the knowledgeable folk on here will have a better idea...
There are some limited indications at the moment, about 30%, that would seem to indicate the potential for the return for deep cold before the end of the month, certainly before the end of the winter.
UKMO T+144 today, picking up on a signal of a drop in pressure south of the British Isles, with a slight rise to the Northwest. ECMWF overnight held constant towards T+168 indicating potential renewed cold. That is perhaps why John Eagleton indicated at this on the Broadcast.
SA
0 -
Very interesting ECMWF 12Z run this afternoon. Bringing forward what it has been showing on the past two runs & what John Eagleton hinted at on the radio broadcast as mentioned above..
Interestingly that by T+144, we have the potential for frosty conditions developing again, with a weak Easterly flow by T+168.. Thereafter, a renewed cold spell & a phase of Extensive High Latitude blocking is modelled...
Whether or not this materialises is uncertain but certainly the trend is there for renewed blocking..
SA 0 -
Quite interesting times ahead, we'll all have to wait and see how it pans out.Snowaddict wrote: »Very interesting ECMWF 12Z run this afternoon. Bringing forward what it has been showing on the past two runs & what John Eagleton hinted at on the radio broadcast as mentioned above..
Interestingly that by T+144, we have the potential for frosty conditions developing again, with a weak Easterly flow by T+168.. Thereafter, a renewed cold spell & a phase of Extensive High Latitude blocking is modelled...
Whether or not this materialises is uncertain but certainly the trend is there for renewed blocking..
SA0 -
-
-
-
-
Rather interesting looking GFS 00Z this morning, with the high trying to force its way back over Scandi from next Monday, sending colder air back towards the UK and Ireland.
Its only one run and will probably be gone on the next run. Still though, something to watch for in the models over the next couple of days.
Indeed, the ECM this morning not willing to drop this potential pressure build either for next week. By next Thursday, this model has the Scandinavian high influence building over Ireland once again:
As you say, only one run, but worth keeping an eye on over the following few days. 0 -
look's like it's going to be a mild weekend,but by next wed much colder and precip around.
bit of a beasterly a brewing
doesn't last long however,seem's that we dont really ever get rid of the cold properly for January,get's a bit warmer for a couple of day's then colder again and visa versa,who no's maybe meath might get a snow event yet.0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »Indeed, the ECM this morning not willing to drop this potential pressure build either for next week. By next Thursday, this model has the Scandinavian high influence building over Ireland once again:
As you say, only one run, but worth keeping an eye on over the following few days.
This is consistent with last two days Deep as well. I noticed it on Monday and yesterday's GFS runs. Some of the other models are also showing it up but they indicate the atlantic winning it and the high retreating east/NE0 -
Advertisement
-
-
-
Yes I'm really liking the latest developments on NWP Guidance into the medium term..
There is increasing propensity in the medium term towards the rebuilding or rather refining of an area of positive height anomolies over Scandinavia.. The evolution generally involves a mix of Azores sourced air and a persistent block to the northeast reforming to form one major block & shutting out the Atlantic influence again.
Certainly one to watch at this moment in time, we are perhaps another 2-3 Days away from where we can begin to become more confident...
But it's entirely possible at the moment that we may see a return to colder conditions later into next week. The caveat being that this is still beyond T+120, although relatively close if the evolution were to develop as fast as modelled on some of the latest GFS runs.
SA 0 -
-
dont really care if next week's cold last a day or a month,all i want is some snow
from a man in withdrawal due to pics of snow everywhere except here
i posted up in other thread about Trim's lack of snow,anyone have any idea? ive lived here for ten year's now and any event that give's snow alway's seems to just skim us,now cold wise it's always colder and frostier here than say dublin,we are in a slight dip here with the boyne running threw the town,there's no mnts or hill's that block any precip(belive me it rain's incessantly here).
one thing i noticed was on saterday,the whole east coast was getting plastered with snow except for a thin strip threw louth/meath,it was ne wind and the streamer's had formed either side of the isle of man,but not over the i.o.m,hence we missed the snow,so that would sort out the ne wind's but what about when the wind is northerly or easterly???
you can visibly notice heavier snowfall's when you drive just say 10 miles in any direction out of trim,including towards dublin(nearer the sea)
so any input for a snow starved man.
thank you0 -
-
dont really care if next week's cold last a day or a month,all i want is some snow
from a man in withdrawal due to pics of snow everywhere except here
i posted up in other thread about Trim's lack of snow,anyone have any idea? ive lived here for ten year's now and any event that give's snow alway's seems to just skim us,now cold wise it's always colder and frostier here than say dublin,we are in a slight dip here with the boyne running threw the town,there's no mnts or hill's that block any precip(belive me it rain's incessantly here).
one thing i noticed was on saterday,the whole east coast was getting plastered with snow except for a thin strip threw louth/meath,it was ne wind and the streamer's had formed either side of the isle of man,but not over the i.o.m,hence we missed the snow,so that would sort out the ne wind's but what about when the wind is northerly or easterly???
you can visibly notice heavier snowfall's when you drive just say 10 miles in any direction out of trim,including towards dublin(nearer the sea)
so any input for a snow starved man.
thank you
You could try the above
Showery activity from the east may be affected by the Hill of Tara to your east. Being on the leeside of the mountain might not help your chances of seeing snow. The Hill of Ward would also have had a similar impact on the front that pushed southwards 10 days ago. Also the Isle of Man may have had an effect on your chances of seeing snow on New Year's eve and during the weekend as it would may have dsirupted the path of precip heading your way from the east. Islands and mountainous/elevated land features are known to affect weather to the point that they change air flows and draws moisture from weather systems through precipitation, therefore reducing precip elsewhere.
Ultimately, I am sure your low lying position also negatively impacted upon your chances of seeing snow from yesterday's event and previous events were probably too marginal for locations at or close to sea level.
Please look at my sig. What i said there might be complete horsedung but it may help.0 -
look's like it's going to be a mild weekend,but by next wed much colder and precip around.
When you say much colder with precip around , Do u think that would it be to the extent that it got to?
oh and could u post a link to where u find the charts? thanks.
look's cold enough for snow with any precip around,not as cold as it has been but max temps of 1c at 2m,doesnt really look like it will last,this is a long way away yet and liable to change,for better or worse(depending on how you look at it)
www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html0 -
You could try the above
Showery activity from the east may be affected by the Hill of Tara to your east. Being on the leeside of the mountain might not help your chances of seeing snow. The Hill of Ward would also have had a similar impact on the front that pushed southwards 10 days ago. Also the Isle of Man may have had an effect on your chances of seeing snow on New Year's eve and during the weekend as it would may have dsirupted the path of precip heading your way from the east. Islands and mountainous/elevated land features are known to affect weather to the point that they change air flows and draws moisture from weather systems through precipitation, therefore reducing precip elsewhere.
Ultimately, I am sure your low lying position also negatively impacted upon your chances of seeing snow from yesterday's event and previous events were probably too marginal for locations at or close to sea level.
Please look at my sig. What i said there might be complete horsedung but it may help.
lol,defo need to get one of them.
hill of ward is 9 miles to the north of me only 390ft high and hill of tara 9 miles east of me at 590ft,surely they would be to low to really impact snowfall considering the amount of rain that falls in this area?
sea level maybe,but a lot of other places at sea level saw snow out of some of these system's.
ta for the input 0 -
Advertisement
-
yes. that does see a prolonged cold spell track sw over ireland from scandanavia from 144+
look's cold enough for snow with any precip around,not as cold as it has been but max temps of 1c at 2m,doesnt really look like it will last,this is a long way away yet and liable to change,for better or worse(depending on how you look at it)
www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html0
Advertisement